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Old 08-14-2018, 02:41 PM   #21
blankall
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Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague View Post
This rationale is used to justify basically every contract longer than 4 years, it seems to me, and it never really sits well with me. Let's look at the longer term contracts signed in 2013 and 2014 and see where we stand now.

Valteri Filpulla, 5 years $25 m
Ryan Clowe, 5 years $24.25 m
Tuuka Rask, 8 years $56 m
Blake Wheeler, 6 years $33.6m
Tyler Bozak, 5 years $21 m
Alex Pietrangelo, 7 years 45.5 m
David Clarkson, 7 years $36.75 m
Travis Hamonic, 7 years $27 m
Stephen Weiss, 5 years $24 m
Nathan Horton, 7 years, $37.1 m
Christian Ehrhoff, 10 years $40 m
Matt Moulson, 5 years $25 m
Anton Stralman, 5 years $22.5 m

I'm sure that's not all of them, only the ones I found easily... how many of those look like bargains now as a result of the cap going up? Wheeler and Pietrangelo, sure. Maybe Hamonic's, I guess, but wasn't it considered a bargain the day it was signed? Stralman's is also fine, but it's not crazily good or anything. Most of them are horrendous.
Firstly, many of those players on your list involve FA signings on the market, which almost always result in an over payment. Better comparables would be guys who re-signed with their own teams for long term deals. So of the players on your list that includes:

Tuuka Rask, 8 years $56 m
Blake Wheeler, 6 years $33.6m
Alex Pietrangelo, 7 years 45.5 m
Travis Hamonic, 7 years $27 m

That list has pretty solid value. You could even add better contracts of players signing with their own teams until age 35. Guys like Stamkos are much better comparables to this Ellis deal, than free agents who signed with new teams on the open market like Horton. It's not the fact they signed long term that's the issue, it's the fact the team on the open market paid a premium for them.
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Old 08-15-2018, 09:31 AM   #22
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Sorry - your comparable for this deal is Steven Stamkos? One of the best goal scorers of the generation is being compared to a guy who has yet to break 40 points playing on a second pairing?

I sound like I hate Ellis as a player; I don't at all. But compare him to comparable players, not franchise stars. Second line or second pairing guys (at the time they were signed) signed long term.

So, if you want to limit it to re-signings by the existing team... Ryan Kesler, Brent Seabrook, Brandon Dubinsky, Andy Greene, Bobby Ryan, Andrew MacDonald, Ryan Callahan, Alex Steen, TJ Oshie, Bryan Little... those are the "supporting role" guys who got five year or longer extensions from their teams.

How many of those contracts do you want on the Flames? How many would look better if they were 8 year deals?
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Old 08-15-2018, 09:32 AM   #23
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No, his comparables are players signed long term by their current teams and not reaching UFA. It's just a point that those seem to work out a lot more often then UFA players do.

UFA is a ####show that we all know about.
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Old 08-15-2018, 09:35 AM   #24
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Ryan Ellis was set to go to UFA. They're paying a UFA price for him. But if you can find a list of players re-signed to long-term deals the summer before their deal expired and they went UFA (and I'm sure some of the players I just listed are on it), I'd love to see it.

I was trying to find a list of just 8 year contracts that players are currently signed to, but I wasn't able to. You'd think Capfriendly would have something like that.
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Old 08-15-2018, 09:40 AM   #25
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Quote:
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Ryan Ellis was set to go to UFA. They're paying a UFA price for him. But if you can find a list of players re-signed to long-term deals the summer before their deal expired and they went UFA (and I'm sure some of the players I just listed are on it), I'd love to see it.

I was trying to find a list of just 8 year contracts that players are currently signed to, but I wasn't able to. You'd think Capfriendly would have something like that.
capfriendly is unfortunately very unfriendly in terms of splicing their data.
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Old 08-15-2018, 09:43 AM   #26
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Steen signed a four year deal.

Little's contract has yet to kick in.

Oshie was a huge reason the team he is on won a Stanley Cup.

Greene was the number 1, to start the season, on a playoff team.

Callahan's contract was fine until he got injured. An argument against giving out long term contracts, for sure, but all long-term contracts.

A lot of the other contracts people considered overpayments the second they were signed.

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Old 08-15-2018, 09:46 AM   #27
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I was trying to find a list of just 8 year contracts that players are currently signed to, but I wasn't able to. You'd think Capfriendly would have something like that.
https://www.capfriendly.com/comparab...nded=&gp=&pts=
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Old 08-15-2018, 09:52 AM   #28
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So looking at that list, for players who aren't your #1C or franchise player types, you get
  • Ryan Johansen
  • Daniel Briere
  • Phil Kessel (sort of; he was clearly the best player on the Leafs when they signed it)
  • Leon Draisaitl
  • Rick Nash (again sort of; he hadn't broken 70 points for years when he signed it)
  • Dustin Brown
  • Jakub Voracek
  • TJ Oshie
  • Brad Marchand
  • Travis Zajac
That's... still not great.
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Old 08-15-2018, 09:57 AM   #29
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Not great? Which ones do teams really regret from that list? Some of those are absolutely great contracts.

Briere was boughout as an amnesty buyout, but it was very buyout friendly with him making nearly nothing his last year. He also scored 49 points, so it wasn't like it was that bad.

Brown has re-surged.

Marchand exploded. Voracek is great.
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Old 08-15-2018, 10:05 AM   #30
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Look at the value on towards the tail end of the deals, when the "cap went up" argument would apply. Briere's buyout is irrelevant - the question is whether he was worth $6.5 million by the end of his contract as a result of the cap going up. Corey Perry? Rick Nash? Travis Zajac? Has the cap going up made those deals into good ones so as to offset the decline of those players?

I definitely agree that the bet on Marchand paid off in spades, but I don't think making those types of bets is a great way to run a hockey team. And I certainly don't agree - which was the entire point of this conversation - that "the cap will have gone up" is likely to make any real difference as to whether a long term deal ends up being palatable.
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Old 08-15-2018, 10:06 AM   #31
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Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague View Post
This rationale is used to justify basically every contract longer than 4 years, it seems to me, and it never really sits well with me. Let's look at the longer term contracts signed in 2013 and 2014 and see where we stand now.

Valteri Filpulla, 5 years $25 m
Ryan Clowe, 5 years $24.25 m
Tuuka Rask, 8 years $56 m
Blake Wheeler, 6 years $33.6m
Tyler Bozak, 5 years $21 m
Alex Pietrangelo, 7 years 45.5 m
David Clarkson, 7 years $36.75 m
Travis Hamonic, 7 years $27 m
Stephen Weiss, 5 years $24 m
Nathan Horton, 7 years, $37.1 m
Christian Ehrhoff, 10 years $40 m
Matt Moulson, 5 years $25 m
Anton Stralman, 5 years $22.5 m

I'm sure that's not all of them, only the ones I found easily... how many of those look like bargains now as a result of the cap going up? Wheeler and Pietrangelo, sure. Maybe Hamonic's, I guess, but wasn't it considered a bargain the day it was signed? Stralman's is also fine, but it's not crazily good or anything. Most of them are horrendous.
These would have been UFAs. Don't sign UFAs? The list of value UFA contracts signed 3 years ago is very short.


Maybe don't sign for any years that that the Player exceeds age 32.

The List of long term RFA contracts is far better:

Monahan, Gaudreau, Hamonic, Mackinnon, Landeskog, Schiefele, Horvat, Klingberg, Muzzin, Josi, Fosberg, Elkholm, Brodin, pietrangelo, parayko all RFA extensions not UFAs.

Not many Gio type players that have not been identified as core players by the time they are 23. The long term extensions lock them up over their peak years. They will likely get overpaid on their 28-35 year old contracts.

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Old 08-15-2018, 11:15 AM   #32
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If you want to win the SC and have a 3-4 year window to do so, you'll need to sign some 8-year contracts that will sting at the end of your window,

The alternative is to trade those guys and try to remain in contention for a longer period. But you'll have weakened your team during your prime years.

GM's need to understand (and most do) that a team cannot be in contention forever in a cap world. So, you maximize your roster while you can and make deals that will look bad in the 2nd half. Everyone knows that signing Ryan for 4 years would have been better for Nashville. But that choice wasn't here. So, they sign him for 8 years and get ready to eventually plug their noses.

If Calgary is still contending when Johnny's and Monny's contracts are up, they will also likely get 8 year's nose plugging contracts as well.
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Old 08-15-2018, 11:25 AM   #33
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Look at the value on towards the tail end of the deals, when the "cap went up" argument would apply. Briere's buyout is irrelevant - the question is whether he was worth $6.5 million by the end of his contract as a result of the cap going up. Corey Perry? Rick Nash? Travis Zajac? Has the cap going up made those deals into good ones so as to offset the decline of those players?

I definitely agree that the bet on Marchand paid off in spades, but I don't think making those types of bets is a great way to run a hockey team. And I certainly don't agree - which was the entire point of this conversation - that "the cap will have gone up" is likely to make any real difference as to whether a long term deal ends up being palatable.
I think Poille has earned the right to make these moves as he has proven to be easily one of, if not the best GM of the cap era. For him, it is not a gamble and he certainly has a plan in mind as he's built the franchise into a powerhouse after years of penny pinching and careful maneuvers. You can barely think of a poor trade he's made, or at least one that has come back to haunt the team during his entire tenure.

This team needs Ellis for the foreseeable future, especially with Josi a huge question mark to return once his deal expires. You don't let your roster evaporate once you've finally got a team that will continue to push for championships for the next 3-4 years.
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Old 08-15-2018, 11:26 AM   #34
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Holy gong show in here
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Old 08-15-2018, 11:28 AM   #35
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Quote:
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Look at the value on towards the tail end of the deals, when the "cap went up" argument would apply. Briere's buyout is irrelevant - the question is whether he was worth $6.5 million by the end of his contract as a result of the cap going up. Corey Perry? Rick Nash? Travis Zajac? Has the cap going up made those deals into good ones so as to offset the decline of those players?

I definitely agree that the bet on Marchand paid off in spades, but I don't think making those types of bets is a great way to run a hockey team. And I certainly don't agree - which was the entire point of this conversation - that "the cap will have gone up" is likely to make any real difference as to whether a long term deal ends up being palatable.
Zajac had a single bad season after coming back from an injury that was expected to sideline him longer than it did. I think we need to see whether he bounces back this year before we make a case for him.

Rick Nash and Corey Perry, in complete contradiction to your early point of saying that Stamkos shouldn't be used as comparable, were bonafide stars for their respective teams...following your early logic they shouldn't count either.

With that said, Columbus got Panarin because they signed Nash to his contract extension (via Anismov and Saad), so I'm sure they're happy with how it worked.

Also, I think if you look at the reply that originally set this off. Blankall wasn't saying that the cap-hit would go up by the time Ellis' contract was up to off-set his decline. It was in response to re-signing Josi in a couple years.
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Old 08-15-2018, 12:42 PM   #36
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Also, I think if you look at the reply that originally set this off. Blankall wasn't saying that the cap-hit would go up by the time Ellis' contract was up to off-set his decline. It was in response to re-signing Josi in a couple years.
Yeah, I looked back and you're right. I guess I just hear people saying that a lot when it comes to long-term signings, and for the reasons above, I don't agree with that reasoning. Apparently Blankall wasn't a guilty party in this case though.
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