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Old 09-23-2019, 12:21 PM   #61
Sylvanfan
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I played 4 cheapie tickets on Sportselect at the last minute on Sunday when I woke up convinced that the risk was too low not to go for it.

Dal
NE
GB all to win, bet $15 won $22.35

Dal
NE
Min all to win, bet $15 won $22.35

Dal
NE
Min
GB all to win, bet $10 won $20.10

Also hit on
Dal Win
NE Win
ATL/IND Tie
Bet $2, won back like 6.62

Lost out on
Dal win
NE win
Bal/KC tie which was a $2 bet to win back $8.82

So of the $44 I staked, I come out with $71.42. If only I had been better at life and could have staked $440,000 for this type of quick profit....
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Old 09-23-2019, 12:32 PM   #62
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sylvanfan View Post
I played 4 cheapie tickets on Sportselect at the last minute on Sunday when I woke up convinced that the risk was too low not to go for it.

Dal
NE
GB all to win, bet $15 won $22.35

Dal
NE
Min all to win, bet $15 won $22.35

Dal
NE
Min
GB all to win, bet $10 won $20.10

Also hit on
Dal Win
NE Win
ATL/IND Tie
Bet $2, won back like 6.62

Lost out on
Dal win
NE win
Bal/KC tie which was a $2 bet to win back $8.82

So of the $44 I staked, I come out with $71.42. If only I had been better at life and could have staked $440,000 for this type of quick profit....
Along a similar vein, I played:

DAL
NE
GB
KC

2 x $100 pro-line for a win of $432.

Not often proline odds are worthwhile, but NE and DAL at 1.05 was better than you could get anywhere else.
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Old 09-23-2019, 12:36 PM   #63
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Originally Posted by Flacker View Post
Along a similar vein, I played:

DAL
NE
GB
KC

2 x $100 pro-line for a win of $432.

Not often proline odds are worthwhile, but NE and DAL at 1.05 was better than you could get anywhere else.
That plus history indicated that teams favored by that much really screw up if they only end up winning by 7 points. So where it's normally a lot riskier moneyline play because a win has to be by 3 points...the odds of those teams winning by 3 was pretty much zero. So rather than need to pick 2 games with more risk, you were getting okay odds, and only needing to pick one other one right.

So you liked the Ravens not making any of those 2 point conversions! Better for you to win your sum as opposed to me making money to buy a couple cups of coffee. I was cursing Crosby for missing that FG to put Green Bay up by 14 fearing that Flacco would get a last second TD, and than the 2 point garbage conversion for the back door cover!
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Old 09-23-2019, 02:35 PM   #64
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89 cent bet could net someone 500K tonight.

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Old 09-23-2019, 08:05 PM   #65
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If you held a ticket like that and were going to sell some action to hedge, what would that look like?

WAS win gives you what kind of return in exchange for cash to bet CHI to cover?
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Old 09-24-2019, 11:07 AM   #66
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Hell of a week for me. Went 7-0, which brings my personal record for the year to 13-7-1. I switched up my strategy a bit this week and didn't go as hard on the spreadsheet. That said, the spreadsheet went 12-4 this week and is 27-20-1 for the season, so I'm not willing to toss it yet.

Home teams had another poor week, going 5-11 ATS and are now 13-34-1 for the reason. Home dogs were 1-3, away dogs were 9-4.
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Old 09-24-2019, 04:10 PM   #67
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What sort of wagers you running with both your methods? Do you vary it based on say how much you agree with the pick?
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Old 09-24-2019, 04:15 PM   #68
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What sort of wagers you running with both your methods? Do you vary it based on say how much you agree with the pick?
I only bet like $5-$10 per game depending on how well I'm doing in the season. I'm not a high-roller by any means. This is mostly a hobby for me and I do it just to add a little excitement to the games. If I get the point where I'm consistently hitting on 60-65% of my bets, I might start throwing more cash down but not until then.

I've debated going to a system where I bet more on games I'm more confident in but it feels like it would be too subjective.
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Old 09-24-2019, 04:19 PM   #69
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I only bet like $5-$10 per game depending on how well I'm doing in the season. I'm not a high-roller by any means. This is mostly a hobby for me and I do it just to add a little excitement to the games. If I get the point where I'm consistently hitting on 60-65% of my bets, I might start throwing more cash down but not until then.

I've debated going to a system where I bet more on games I'm more confident in but it feels like it would be too subjective.
No thats fair. I used to vary it but I got into too much trouble.
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Old 09-24-2019, 04:38 PM   #70
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I guess I can sort of go into a bit of detail on what I'm doing now. Basically what I'm doing is creating my own point spreads for games based on some of the stats I used to project win totals for the season and then looking for discrepancies between the spreads I've set vs. the spreads the sportsbooks have set.

So for example, I had last night's game as CHI -10.5, whereas the books had it at CHI -4, representing a 6.5 point advantage/value for me, which was one of the highest advantages I had this week, the others being CAR +2.5 (my line was CAR -6.5) and PIT +6.5 (my line was PIT -1.5). Obviously the point isn't for my lines to be correct. They're just there to alert me to where the books are most likely to be wrong.

I'm not still using the 2018 stats at this point, because that'd be stupid, but I used them as baselines and then adjust things every week after the games have been played.

I think where I went wrong in the first couple of weeks was not considering which of my lines were extreme outliers and just going based off of what I saw as the biggest advantage. To correct that, I tracked the median, mean, and mode point advantages of the winning games the spreadsheet predicted as well as the losing games to give myself a range to stay within. I don't know if that will still be necessary as the season progresses and I can set my spreads based more on current data but it's probably a decent strategy to have for the first few weeks of a new season when the sample size is too small and still largely relying on the previous season's data.

Or it could all be junk and I end up tossing it out in another couple of weeks.
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Old 09-30-2019, 01:21 PM   #71
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Only made 3 bets this week (TEN +4, CHI -2.5, IND -7) and went 2-1. Spreadsheet is 8-6 this week and 35-26-1 for the season.
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Old 10-01-2019, 09:36 AM   #72
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22-15-1 so far this year. Not including player props where I’ve been doing pretty well.
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Old 10-03-2019, 12:55 PM   #73
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I got absolutely blasted by the flu this week and forgot to update my sheet. That said, I took PIT -3.5 on Monday night and went 3-1 for the week, bringing me to 16-8-1 for the year.

Tonight, I like LA +1.5.
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Old 10-03-2019, 09:55 PM   #74
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One of the more hilarious covers ever but I'll take it.
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Old 10-04-2019, 12:07 AM   #75
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Eff me...I figured 1.5 points might as well do Rams moneyline and Zuerlein misses. Jerk. I hate kickers.
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Old 10-04-2019, 05:03 PM   #76
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For this week I have:

CHI -5
CIN -3
NO -3
HOU -4
DAL -3
LAC -6.5
IND +11

I think I'm getting killed this week but all of these spreads seem too low with the exception of IND +11, which I threw down on just because I want to have something to root for on Sunday night.
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Old 10-05-2019, 11:31 PM   #77
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Ouch.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1180625853941735426
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Old 10-08-2019, 01:36 PM   #78
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Took CLE +5 last night to end the week 4-5, putting me at 20-13-1 for the year. Spreadsheet went 7-7-1 and is 43-33-2 for the year.

Home teams had their best ATS performance of the year, going 7-8, but their record on the year is still just 25-51-1. Early lines I like this week:

SEA -1.5
CAR -2
NO +1
ATL -2.5
GB -4.5
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Old 10-11-2019, 01:16 PM   #79
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Took CLE +5 last night to end the week 4-5, putting me at 20-13-1 for the year. Spreadsheet went 7-7-1 and is 43-33-2 for the year.

Home teams had their best ATS performance of the year, going 7-8, but their record on the year is still just 25-51-1. Early lines I like this week:

SEA -1.5
CAR -2
NO +1
ATL -2.5
GB -4.5
Went with these games and added LAR -3.5 and PHI +3.
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Old 10-15-2019, 12:07 PM   #80
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Boo...back-to-back losing weeks (3-4) puts me at 23-17-1 for the year. Spreadsheet did very poor this week and went 4-9-1, putting it at 47-43-3 for the year.
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