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Old 09-13-2021, 05:28 PM   #1
peter12
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Default Predictions on the Pandemic's End

I know that I've been a bit too ... enthusiastic on my predictions on the pandemic's end in the past, but with vaccines, it actually looks like an end to this thing is in sight.

So, I know we have the anti-vaxxers, schools being a vector for children, and a developing world that is mostly unvaccinated, still we can see that this thing ends soon.

Vaccines work. Even against variants, they produce an immensely strong immune response that avoids hospitalization, serious illness, and death. There is even some evidence that they have reduced almost half of all hospitalizations to what amounts to a brief visit.

So, speculate on the end.

My personal take, the justifiable caution of both policymakers and the populace keep us in some state of limbo for another year, but that by next summer, we will have accepted that COVID is with us and life goes back to mostly normal.
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Old 09-13-2021, 05:38 PM   #2
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At this rate? Civil war.
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Old 09-13-2021, 05:40 PM   #3
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I read an article about past pandemics that said life doesn't really get back to normal for five years. So we've got at least another 3 to go.
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Old 09-13-2021, 06:09 PM   #4
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Like a vampire movie, we hunt down the unvaccinated in the dark and jab them.
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Old 09-13-2021, 06:16 PM   #5
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I believe this will be the last wave with the potential to overwhelm hospitals.

The high attack rate of Delta, impeding vaccinations of elementary aged kids, Vaccine passports / the threat of them working in other jurisdictions, all lead to an environment where after this waves completion the next crests will be lower.

We are completely open and appear to be cresting at a slightly worse place then when had significant restrictions in place. Iím more optimistic then Iíve been in a while. We get through one more return to school surge and the pandemic is done.
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Old 09-13-2021, 07:01 PM   #6
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Like a vampire movie, we hunt down the unvaccinated in the dark and jab them.
I could foresee a rise in stabbings on the streets...

with needles.
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Old 09-13-2021, 07:03 PM   #7
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Not anytime soon unfortunately
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Old 09-13-2021, 07:04 PM   #8
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It completely depends on new variants and our ability to react to them in a timely manner. For that reason, it would be foolish to predict any end to this anytime soon.

That's obviously a very pessimistic view, but I tend to keep it in the back of my mind at all times. My real answer is that it's already becoming something to keep in mind in certain situations (large gatherings etc.), but that most circumstances do not warrant significant concern. It won't be out of our psyche for a long time, but how big of a role it plays in our thoughts is starting to diminish. I imagine that another big wave will happen due to the holidays, and that after that it will become background noise.

All of that...providing that Mu doesn't become the big, bad, scary variation some think it might be.
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Old 09-13-2021, 07:33 PM   #9
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Once enough of the non vaxxed get covid the numbers will drop fast. Between those with natural immunity and vaxxed people it will fizzle out to a bunch of colds for the most part. Until then hold on for more.
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Old 09-13-2021, 08:05 PM   #10
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I remember my doctor saying last year it was going to be 5 years...I was skeptical of that. Now...not so much, judging by the will of some people.
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Old 09-13-2021, 08:33 PM   #11
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The pessimistic side of me says that vaccine protection against severe disease will wane a lot quicker than we had hoped and we might find ourselves in a repeating cycle of boosters with lower and lower vaccine uptake each cycle, leading to fairly constant spread and continued stress on the healthcare system.

The hopeful side of me says that either subsequent doses or mild infections after vaccination will instill a longer term protection, and once we hit a critical point of population immunity, COVID will become more like the flu.

A month or two ago I would have been almost positive that the latter was true, but now I'm not so sure.
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Old 09-13-2021, 08:40 PM   #12
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I'm mostly holding out hope for a better vaccine that can reduce or eliminate transmission. Until then? Lots more of the same.
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Old 09-13-2021, 08:43 PM   #13
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Is there a possibility that an effective treatment is found instead?
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Old 09-13-2021, 08:51 PM   #14
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I believe this will be the last wave with the potential to overwhelm hospitals.

The high attack rate of Delta, impeding vaccinations of elementary aged kids, Vaccine passports / the threat of them working in other jurisdictions, all lead to an environment where after this waves completion the next crests will be lower.

We are completely open and appear to be cresting at a slightly worse place then when had significant restrictions in place. Iím more optimistic then Iíve been in a while. We get through one more return to school surge and the pandemic is done.
I am mentally prepared for an absolutely brutal fifth wave over Christmas. This is traditional flu season for a reason.
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Old 09-13-2021, 09:05 PM   #15
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The pessimistic side of me says that vaccine protection against severe disease will wane a lot quicker than we had hoped and we might find ourselves in a repeating cycle of boosters with lower and lower vaccine uptake each cycle, leading to fairly constant spread and continued stress on the healthcare system.

The hopeful side of me says that either subsequent doses or mild infections after vaccination will instill a longer term protection, and once we hit a critical point of population immunity, COVID will become more like the flu.

A month or two ago I would have been almost positive that the latter was true, but now I'm not so sure.
If your former scenario is true (not a lot of evidence for it yet), I would expect the two tier system between the vaccinated and non vaccinated to continue to divide our society.

If I continue my own vaccine compliance, I would not tolerate the same set of restrictions would apply to me.
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Old 09-13-2021, 09:44 PM   #16
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I am mentally prepared for an absolutely brutal fifth wave over Christmas. This is traditional flu season for a reason.
Yeah thatís certainly a possibility. I donít think we have seen much seasonality with Covid though.
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Old 09-14-2021, 03:21 AM   #17
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Yeah thatís certainly a possibility. I donít think we have seen much seasonality with Covid though.
The winter waves were generally worse for COVID, the provinces west of Ontario that all had mild first waves got hit much harder in the winter. So did a number of countries in Europe that also had mild first waves, Germany, Austria, Czech Republic (which went from one of the lowest death rates to one of the highest). Even the big European countries that were hit hard in the first wave (Italy, Spain, France, UK) saw a long, deadly winter wave.
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Old 09-14-2021, 08:07 AM   #18
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Yeah that’s certainly a possibility. I don’t think we have seen much seasonality with Covid though.
It is harder to see the seasonality due to the interruptions caused by the various changes to restrictions, but we definitely saw seasonality in the period where the restrictions remained relatively constant in Alberta, from July 2020 to mid-December 2020. Assuming there are no restrictions at all this winter, and given the level of COVID burnout and remaining vaccine holdouts, I am not relying on a normal Christmas season... but should the worst end up being behind us, will be happy to have my worries proved unfounded.

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Old 09-14-2021, 09:17 AM   #19
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I think it ends differently in different places.

Its basically over in places like Florida and Texas, etc - where they've just basically given up and are willing to live with the consequences of deaths and hospitalizations. With private healthcare - if there is money to be made - the healthcare system will build up to accommodate it over time.

The democratic states will be interesting to see how they go about it this winter assuming there's another wave.

In Canada - I suspect we will go through the winter with vaccinate mandates (minus Alberta/Saskatchewan I guess) and see where that leads. I don't really know how it ends in Alberta since you are stuck in the middle where I doubt people are willing to accept high deaths and ICU usage but your government won't do anything to intervene. I guess its just hope the current vaccination levels will cover you. I do worry about this winter even with the current vaccinations just because we basically had no flu last year - if that comes back - I worry about the hospital capacities.
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Old 09-14-2021, 09:20 AM   #20
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My prediction is that the waves will turn into something more like a water-skiing wake.

(Not sure if I'm doing this right!)
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