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Old 03-18-2021, 03:36 PM   #1
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Default Coronavirus All Purpose Thread: The Third Wave

I am starting to feel like we better start talking about this as I feel it is inevitable. We have a second high school that is going to be shutting down and going online for two weeks, and we are seeing variants popping up at a significant number of schools. I am starting to think we better start mentally preparing for the third wave as I believe it is inevitable. We are starting to see the numbers creep up again.

I think this is a combination of factors but I am not an expert. I feel it may be due to a number of people that were motivated to follow recommendations to protect elderly family members. However, as these family members start to get vaccinated I am wondering if we are going to see these folks start to relax with restriction following.

My personal observation this weekend would support this. I was in the ,mountains and hiked seeing very few people. However, afterwards we went to drive through Canmore. It was insane, we refused to leave the car. It looked like Boxing Day shopping, shoulder to shoulder people, and I would guess maybe 10% had a mask. This behaviour is going to cause another spike.

I am currently listening to Hinshaw and her rhetoric, in my opinion, is starting to sound a lot like it did right before the Second Wave was declared and we shut down. Anyways, just my two cents, if I am overstepping by starting this thread I apologize and admin please feel free to delete if I am wrong.
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Old 03-18-2021, 03:37 PM   #2
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No.....I refuse to do this a third time.
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Old 03-18-2021, 03:48 PM   #3
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Ontario has officially entered the third wave, join us won't you?
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Old 03-18-2021, 03:59 PM   #4
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It’s a race. With current vaccination we can support 2000-3000 cases per day without overwhelming hospitals. That is two - two and half doubling periods. We are 12-16 weeks from heard immunity. 10-15% growth we probably make it. 30% growth we don’t.
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Old 03-18-2021, 03:59 PM   #5
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I am starting to feel like we better start talking about this as I feel it is inevitable.

My personal observation this weekend would support this. I was in the ,mountains and hiked seeing very few people. However, afterwards we went to drive through Canmore. It was insane, we refused to leave the car. It looked like Boxing Day shopping, shoulder to shoulder people, and I would guess maybe 10% had a mask. This behaviour is going to cause another spike.
Interesting to see the differences, we also did a day trip to Canmore on Family Day. Weather was gorgeous and it was also packed. But I would say > 90% were wearing masks and that was outside in the busy areas. Inside was near 100%.

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Ontario has officially entered the third wave, join us won't you?
Was that officially declared? What is the definition the Province is using?


The thought of a third wave is depressing but I almost feel it is inevitable too. Question is how will our government's handle it.

Last edited by Lubicon; 03-18-2021 at 04:07 PM.
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Old 03-18-2021, 04:05 PM   #6
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Was that officially declared? What is the definition the Province is using?


The thought of a third wave is depressing but I almost feel it is inevitable too. Question is how will our government's handle it.
https://www.cp24.com/news/we-are-in-...says-1.5352254

The hospital association has been saying this for a few days, and now our CMOH says it as well.

Rolling 7-day case count average has increased from about 1000 to 1427 over the last 3 weeks (~35% increase) and I believe I read that 2/3 of our health units are experiencing exponential growth.

Effective R for the variants is currently 1.35, and our ICUs have 360 covid patients in them (20% of the capacity).

We are going to be locking down, it's just a matter of when IMO.
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Old 03-18-2021, 04:12 PM   #7
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The thought of a third wave is depressing but I almost feel it is inevitable too. Question is how will our government's handle it.
I know that hospitalization and ICU admissions is a lagging indicators but unless those metrics start to reach levels which are unsustainable for our healthcare system I believe that the government should continue with a slow easing of restrictions. People will get sick and will recover and we'll be able to increase our quality of life and our economy at a slow and stable pace.
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Old 03-18-2021, 04:20 PM   #8
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I know that hospitalization and ICU admissions is a lagging indicators but unless those metrics start to reach levels which are unsustainable for our healthcare system I believe that the government should continue with a slow easing of restrictions. People will get sick and will recover and we'll be able to increase our quality of life and our economy at a slow and stable pace.
What's fascinating to me is watching the difference south of the border. Now I am not saying the US is a shining example of what to do but they have been much less restrictive since day 1 and are marching steadily towards reopening much faster than we are. Especially as of late, and we seem to be hearing very little of how 'bad' it is going for them. Airlines are flying, school sports never stopped in many cases (March Madness begins tonight), sporting events have fans in some cases etc. Meanwhile we are talking about resurrecting the Atlantic bubble this summer, more restrictions etc. At some point people are going to decide they have had enough. Our governments are walking a tightrope that could easily go one way or the other.
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Old 03-18-2021, 04:52 PM   #9
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https://twitter.com/user/status/1372670034473062406

If we raise the blood alcohol limit for driving, people will decide to take taxis/uber instead of drinking and driving.

If we legalize murder, people will only beat others to a pulp instead of murdering them.

If we increase speed limits, people will drive slower.

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Old 03-18-2021, 04:54 PM   #10
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When you look at the rising curve and case counts, and the increasing percentage of variants, it's pretty clear that we're marching steadily into the third wave. Of course, we're not going to do anything about it until we're forced to because we learned nothing from November/December.
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Old 03-18-2021, 04:55 PM   #11
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What's fascinating to me is watching the difference south of the border. Now I am not saying the US is a shining example of what to do but they have been much less restrictive since day 1 and are marching steadily towards reopening much faster than we are. Especially as of late, and we seem to be hearing very little of how 'bad' it is going for them. Airlines are flying, school sports never stopped in many cases (March Madness begins tonight), sporting events have fans in some cases etc. Meanwhile we are talking about resurrecting the Atlantic bubble this summer, more restrictions etc. At some point people are going to decide they have had enough. Our governments are walking a tightrope that could easily go one way or the other.
The difference is vaccinations. They have fully vaccinated 13% of their population and over 23% have had a first dose and the pace is over 2.3 million vaccinations a day. The people who have been vaccinated are the highest risk people and therefore the death rates have plummeted. Combine the high level of vaccination with the high level of people who were infected and recovered and that's a huge portion of the population that has some level of immunity. The combination of low infection rates in Canada (good on Canadians), the fact that Canada couldn't get their act together on the vaccination front, and our low risk tolerance means Covid will be interrupting Canadian lives much longer into 2021.

I also agree with you on the governments walking a tight rope. If we fast forward to the summer when anyone over the age of 50 and with pre-existing conditions has had the opportunity to be vaccinated and we're still talking about bubbling up Atlantic Canada, recommending against interprovincial travel, banning outdoor gatherings, and locking up returning travelers and snowbirds in quarantine hotels on their way back to Canada, then we deserve entirely all the economic destruction that comes with that while the rest of the 1st world moves on.
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Old 03-18-2021, 04:56 PM   #12
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The difference is vaccinations. They have fully vaccinated 13% of their population and over 23% have had a first dose and the pace is over 2.3 million vaccinations a day. The people who have been vaccinated are the highest risk people and therefore the death rates have plummeted. Combine the high level of vaccination with the high level of people who were infected and recovered and that's a huge portion of the population that has some level of immunity. The combination of low infection rates in Canada (good on Canadians), the fact that Canada couldn't get their act together on the vaccination front, and our low risk tolerance means Covid will be interrupting Canadian lives much longer into 2021.

I also agree with you on the governments walking a tight rope. If we fast forward to the summer when anyone over the age of 50 and with pre-existing conditions has had the opportunity to be vaccinated and we're still talking about bubbling up Atlantic Canada, recommending against interprovincial travel, banning outdoor gatherings, locking up returning travelers and snowbirds in quarantine hotels on their way back to Canada, then we deserve entirely all the economic destruction that comes with that while the rest of the 1st world moves on.
Canada is up to 12th in the world for the amount of vaccinations that are being given out per day. We may have started slow but it's looking pretty good now.
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Old 03-18-2021, 04:56 PM   #13
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What's fascinating to me is watching the difference south of the border. Now I am not saying the US is a shining example of what to do but they have been much less restrictive since day 1 and are marching steadily towards reopening much faster than we are. Especially as of late, and we seem to be hearing very little of how 'bad' it is going for them. Airlines are flying, school sports never stopped in many cases (March Madness begins tonight), sporting events have fans in some cases etc. Meanwhile we are talking about resurrecting the Atlantic bubble this summer, more restrictions etc. At some point people are going to decide they have had enough. Our governments are walking a tightrope that could easily go one way or the other.
The US is vaccinating about 3x as fast as Canada is right now and also has the "benefit" from the widespread infections creating more immunity. So obviously their near future is going to be different than Canada's. And parts of the US also have a very different level of acceptable deaths and health complications than a lot of other places. Florida basically fully reopened while they were still seeing 150 deaths a day, which is double the mortality that Canada saw at the absolute peak of the pandemic. And the US as a whole is still seeing more daily deaths per capita than Canada did at the peak. So that plays into it as well.

I also think it's a little revisionist to say the US has been less restrictive the whole time. Some states for sure, but some of the most populous states have had long stay at home orders at times (something that never happened in most of Canada) and there are large swaths of the country where kids haven't had regular in-person learning for over a year now, which again is something that hasn't really happened in Canada for any length of time.

In the end, Canada will likely be about 2-2.5 months behind the US in getting to herd immunity. But at the same we will also have far lower mortality, particularly in younger age groups. The US has had 100K people under the age of 65 die from COVID (about 11,500 pro-rated to Canada's population); Canada meanwhile has had about 1,600.
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Old 03-18-2021, 05:18 PM   #14
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I think the unfortunate truth is that vaccinations aren't going to save us from a third wave. Frankly, I think Hinshaw's comments today about how "easing restrictions may result in less rule breaking" are deeply concerning, but of course our government is still adamant on doing the bare minimum in a vain effort to save the economy and placate their base.

It takes 2-3 weeks for immunity to kick in and with the warmer weather, people who haven't even got their shots yet are starting to act like the pandemic is over. I live in Kensington and the strip was bumping last night with people going to restaurants and bars for St Paddy's day. Two nights ago I was on 17th picking up takeout and once again -- packed. Patio / bar hopping season is here, and there is absolutely a third wave on the horizon -- the only question is if the AB government will do anything about it or let it play out in a high consequence game of chicken featuring Covid v. Vaccinations.

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Old 03-18-2021, 05:22 PM   #15
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I'm not excusing the abundance of people out and about, however yesterday was St Paddy's day and definetly an outlier as far as busy bars go.
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Old 03-18-2021, 05:24 PM   #16
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I'm not excusing the abundance of people out and about, however yesterday was St Paddy's day and definetly an outlier as far as busy bars go.
Mad props to The Ship on that one. I'm sure this was a hard decision for their management to make, but it was the right one.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1372207742782304258
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Old 03-18-2021, 05:27 PM   #17
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There are a couple of aspects to it, though. One is, we might not be fully vaccinated by the time any third wave hits, but it's possible that we'll get through vaccinating most of the high-risk population, such that the third wave acts more like a flu season.

Second, more people outside as the weather turns nice is a good thing - infections outdoors definitely happen, but it's a lower risk, which is in part why the summer wasn't as bad as the fall. So as much as nice weather causes further risk taking behaviour, it also lowers the risk of that behaviour, so there's some offset.

I dunno, I am optimistic.
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Old 03-18-2021, 05:41 PM   #18
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^people outside = good, I couldn’t agree more.

People outside but going to the bar with multiple households? Not so good, bc when the patio that seats three or four groups with capacity restrictions is full, the next group inevitably takes a table inside. And so does the group after them, and the group after that.

It’s just human nature. If your goal is to go to the bar with your friends, it’s easy to justify the risk / hard to turn back when the risk level changes.

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Old 03-18-2021, 06:08 PM   #19
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I know that hospitalization and ICU admissions is a lagging indicators but unless those metrics start to reach levels which are unsustainable for our healthcare system I believe that the government should continue with a slow easing of restrictions. People will get sick and will recover and we'll be able to increase our quality of life and our economy at a slow and stable pace.
Today 91 new cases of COVID are of the B.1.1.7 variant which according to recent studies is at least 50% more transmissible and 60% more deadly. This variant requires tougher restrictions to stop growth. (greater than the ones we had last spring) I get that people are tired but with vaccines we have the end in sight and that's a powerful motivator.
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Old 03-18-2021, 06:43 PM   #20
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The Ship has set an example throughout this. They deserve increased patronage once things are normal
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