When is our rebuild no longer a rebuild?

[spuzzum]

Iginla and Bouwmeester were traded at the 2013 deadline. Monahan along with two other 1st rounders were drafted in 2013. Gaudreau is establishing himself as world class player. Bennett is considered our future franchise center and is developing nicely. We have two young established defensemen in Brodie, and Hamilton plus Gio in his prime that seem to be the envy of the league and on this board.

We have huge issues in net and a number of undesirable contracts in Stajan, Engelland, Raymond, Smid and perhaps Bouma.

Management and most of us on this board consider us to still be in a rebuild. Which year is this team no longer in a rebuild considering our current state? What is acceptable to the fan base?

And yes, Edmonton will hopefully forever be in a rebuild.

[Benched]

next year, rebuild still, progressing forward
the year after, time to compete. The core young guys are older starting to hit their stride.


my 'fan timeline'

[Madrox]

The rebuild is no longer a rebuild when we can reasonably expect to make the conference finals.

[Tacopuck]

When the Flames make playoffs two consecutive years

[Poe969]

When the team is considered a contender. Until the team is considered a perennial contender or powerhouse, the team will be rebuilding and trying to improve. I think the year after next, the team will be an extremely competitive team but until then, they're still rebuilding.

[Caged Great]

Usually tear down rebuilds take 5 years from start to perennial playoff team. So if you push that ahead from 2012-2013 that would make it the 2017-2018 season give or take.

Last year was an aberration. An awesome aberration, but it was something that wasn't likely to be repeated. The surprising thing is that the Flames are not far off where they were offensively last year. If they address the goaltending we'll be fine.

If Calgary gets one of the Fins and throw them on the first line, then we'll probably be ahead of schedule and could very well start making the playoffs consistently as soon as next season. We aren't that far off, it all depends on the other moves that need to happen.

Chicago and LA had their first year of no playoffs in 2003 and were back in by 2008 and 2009 and their tear downs were more extensive than ours was because we already had Gio, Brodie, Backlund, Gaudreau, and Jankowski in the organization by the time we started our tear down. Those teams had pretty much nothing.

Just have to be patient. Getting Pollock and Shinkaruk was huge this deadline in addition to the 2 top 60 picks.

[GranteedEV]

When statistically, the Flames are better than each of:

50% score-adjusted Corsi
50% scored-adjusted Fenwick
20th ranked PP

We will no longer be a team that can use re-building as an excuse.

[Komskies]

Originally Posted by Tacopuck

When the Flames make playoffs two consecutive years

That's what I was going with as well. Consistently making the playoffs.

[jayswin]

I would say one more year of allowing Monahan, Gaudreau, Brodie, Hamilton etc to develop along with Brad strengthening the roster along the way and I would expect to be a strong playoff team by the 2017/18 season.

Many on here are just frothing at the mouth as if we should be there already and cut everyone in the franchise down from 4th liners to management every time we lose, but I think those that have followed the NHL outside the Flames can see that

A) rebuilds aren't linear, and

B) They take time even when you have great pieces in place. Those pieces still need to mature and adapt to the NHL.

It blows me away when you have guys on this site proclaiming "We've already got what's supposed to be franchise players in place like Hamilton, Bennett, Monahan and yet the results aren't there, obviously something's not working, something not right with the team".

This is a very good rebuild, imo. Of course it may not work out, but judging that now as if it's the finished product is incorrect. Our core young guys will likely be the a big part of the finished product, but acting like how they're playing now is how they'll play in two years is asinine and seems to be negative posters happily fulfilling their own prophecy.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

When statistically, the Flames are better than each of:

50% score-adjusted Corsi
50% scored-adjusted Fenwick
20th ranked PP

We will no longer be a team that can use re-building as an excuse.

With any luck, by the time that happens, people will have got over two idiotic ideas: (1) that the purpose of hockey is to have possession of the puck, (2) that shot attempts are an accurate measure of possession. I will be very happy when the day comes that I never have to hear the words ‘Corsi’ and ‘Fenwick’ again.

[frodo_t_baggins]

I would say once we are no longer looking to add core pieces. Our young core is currently lacking another scoring winger (which we can hopefully draft with our high pick this year) and a goalie. Once those are added, I would consider the rebuild over and it would then be a matter of the core developing into a contender and the team finding the right complementary pieces.

[Samiz]

Even though the advanced statistics are important, I think to be out of the "rebuild" stage (aka a reasonable consistency in playoff success), we must be around the top 10 in the league in 3 of following 4 stats:

Goals For
Goals Against
PP%
PK%

[TheScorpion]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

With any luck, by the time that happens, people will have got over two idiotic ideas: (1) that the purpose of hockey is to have possession of the puck, (2) that shot attempts are an accurate measure of possession. I will be very happy when the day comes that I never have to hear the words ‘Corsi’ and ‘Fenwick’ again.

I think we‘re all interpreting advanced stats wrong. See, the ‘purpose‘ of hockey isn‘t to possess the puck, it‘s to score goals; however, possessing the puck sure does help you to do that.

[jayswin]

Keeping in mind we're likely adding another top 6 six forward at the draft this year.

[Badgers Nose]

1.5 seasons

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

I think we‘re all interpreting advanced stats wrong. See, the ‘purpose‘ of hockey isn‘t to possess the puck, it‘s to score goals; however, possessing the puck sure does help you to do that.

Fine. Then let's not talk as if possession were an end in itself.

And let's not talk as if all shots on goal were of equal value, because that's been amply disproven by Valiquette and others.

And for the love of all that goes on skates, let's not talk as if Corsi or Fenwick actually measured possession. They don't. They're merely the least crappy proxy that you can come up with while not watching the games, since the NHL does not actually track time of possession.

[Strange Brew]

So if Chicago's rebuild started in 2003, its interesting that Kane and Toews were not drafted until 2007 and 2006 respectively. If the Flames rebuild started in 2013, Gaudreau, Monahan and Brodie were already drafted.

Not trying to say these guys are equivalent at all, but does it mean we are further ahead than the Blackhawks were? Or are we losing out on a window because many of our core players will be on big $ contracts before we are a contender again.

I think it means we still need to find some core players in the draft.

[Huntingwhale]

When the Flames can realistically contend for the division title, beat good teams on a regular basis, and learn to hang onto leads. When they do that for 2 years in a row, I'll believe it's done.

[tvp2003]

[nik-]

I think it's more a function of cap space and contracts. When we're a cap team and all of our high picks have their second contracts, our rebuild is pretty much complete. At that point we'll need to determine if it's a successful rebuild or not.