[News] AP's 2018 medal projections - Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community

Mango · 02-05-2018, 09:24 PM

Might be fun to look at these. While it's an American news organization, they do have a pretty good pulse on each of the sports and events.

https://wintergames.ap.org/article/2...al-projections

Canadian winners in bold.

I definitely agree with the Canadian selections in curling (lesser extent for the mixed doubles) and figure skating. I also think Canada will do well in long-track with Ted-Jan Bloemen joining the team and Canada is strong in sliding.

However, hockey is a toss-up. Men's...who knows. Women's...will this be the Games the Americans finally return to the top of the podium?

Also, nice to see some love for Alex Harvey. Underrated athlete.

The AP is also picked Canadians to be strong in snowboarding.

Spoiler!

Strange Brew · 02-05-2018, 10:27 PM

Speed skating is a sport I really enjoy every 4 years. Nice to see we have some contenders there.

I miss the days of Canada having medal hopes in Alpine skiing. Are there any hopes there at all?

I see they have us sweeping curling and ice hockey. That would be great but quite possible it doesn’t happen. Of the 4, women’s hockey is the surest thing.

craigwd · 02-06-2018, 01:19 AM

Wow good list. I agree with almost all of it in a perfect world.

I hope Kaisa Makarainen can end her career with a bunch of medals too.
Don't really see Pechstein winning the 5000m but good god what holds her together? This is like her 8th Olympics.
They nailed the figure skating.
Don't think Meyers-Taylor finishes top 2 in bob but possible, not really having a good season.

Tomass won't win bronze in skelly.

MRCboicgy · 02-06-2018, 08:23 AM

Also, super stoked this subforum is back up!

Like a d-bag I bought one of those We Are Winter t-shirts from Sportchek in every colour.

killer_carlson · 02-06-2018, 09:00 AM

i'll be shocked if we don't medal in mens figure skating, unless it's one of those pre-determined horse trades with Patrick Chan getting the short straw. Again.

NuclearFart · 02-06-2018, 11:10 AM

Whats the deal with mixed doubles curling? Seems odd that China suddenly appears as the gold favorite but doesn't even podium for the separate Men & Womens. I guess the mixed teams are not comprised of the same atheletes?

Arsenal14 · 02-06-2018, 12:00 PM

Mixed Doubles is a somewhat different game from regular curling:
- you only have two players on the team
- there are only five rocks thrown per end by each team instead of eight (one player throws the first and fifth rocks, the other throws the middle three)
- there is one rock from each team positioned in a pre-determined position before the end starts (a center guard for the team without hammer, a rock in the back four foot for the team with hammer)
- you can't throw any take-outs on the first four shots of the end, even on rocks that are in the rings

Doubles got adopted earlier in Europe than in North America so there are a lot of non-traditional curling countries that have done well in the worlds recently. Canada has normally just thrown together teams to try competing - even Lawes and Morris just joined up for the Olympic Trials. It's also easier for countries with less curlers to find one good female and one good male curler than four of each.

Also, some countries let the same curlers compete in doubles and regular team competitions (i.e. USA) and some didn't (i.e. Canada). I'm not sure if China even qualified for either Men's or Women's.

Arsenal14 · 02-06-2018, 12:05 PM

For what it's worth the betting odds from Bodog are a little more pessimistic about Canadian medal hopes:
- None of the Canadian women are in the top three odds for the moguls whereas AP has us winning both gold and bronze
- AP has us winning a silver and a bronze in luge, Bodog has us 5th and 4th in the odds for those events
- AP has Alex Harvey winning two medals, Bodog has him 4th-6th in his events.

There are a few others where AP has us winning a medal and Bodog doesn't have us in the top three. Nothing I can see that goes the other way. For what it's worth Bodog has Patrick Chan with the fifth best odds of winning gold in Men's Figure Skating.

Mango · 02-06-2018, 12:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by killer_carlson

i'll be shocked if we don't medal in mens figure skating, unless it's one of those pre-determined horse trades with Patrick Chan getting the short straw. Again.

He's a dark horse, but a smart dark horse at that.

Some pundits have said this is his retirement Olympics, but with PC's renewed focus, move to Vancouver, and just his experience alone will give him an edge.

On another note, I enjoyed the team event in Russia and felt Canada got shafted by host nepotism.

GirlySports · 02-06-2018, 02:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arsenal14

For what it's worth the betting odds from Bodog are a little more pessimistic about Canadian medal hopes:
- None of the Canadian women are in the top three odds for the moguls whereas AP has us winning both gold and bronze
.

yeah the Australian girl is the world champion and AP doesn't list her.

craigwd · 02-06-2018, 04:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mango

He's a dark horse, but a smart dark horse at that.

Some pundits have said this is his retirement Olympics, but with PC's renewed focus, move to Vancouver, and just his experience alone will give him an edge.

On another note, I enjoyed the team event in Russia and felt Canada got shafted by host nepotism.

Maybe a very, very dark horse. Right now Patrick's programs do not have the base points that Fernandez, Chen, (a healthy Hanyu), Jin, or Uno have.

It is the Olympics though and there could be some missteps like we saw in Sochi and a bit in Helsinki.

But I don't see Chen stumbling again like last year nor do I see Fernandez making the same catastrophic error. Hanyu is probably too hurt to be on the podium.

transplant99 · 02-08-2018, 01:15 PM

Chances at a downhill ski medal are a lot better than they were a couple days ago.

Quote:

Manuel Osborne-Paradis is clearly not. On his 34th birthday, the four-time Olympian delivered the fastest training run of the day. It will have no official bearing on Sunday’s downhill race, but it showed that Osborne-Paradis, as the saying goes, did not come to the Olympics to trade pins.

“We’re here for a medal,” he says after his run. The young guys might be here to learn the ropes, but for him and Benjamin Thomsen, the other World Cup veteran on the team, “It’s down to business,” Osborne-Paradis says. “Let’s see what we can do.”

would be nice to see a Canuck back on the podium in a downhill for sure.

BurningYears · 02-08-2018, 01:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by transplant99

Chances at a downhill ski medal are a lot better than they were a couple days ago.

would be nice to see a Canuck back on the podium in a downhill for sure.

I wouldn't put a lot of weight into it at all though other then good feelings, as far as downhill goes usually during training guys do a lot of standing up/feeling out hte course as well as don't want to give away all of their secrets etc. on top of that it looks like he missed a gate in the course which would have a) disqualified him in a race and b) might have given him more speed/better time:

Quote:

Osborne-Paradis, from Invermere, B.C., finished in one minute 40.45 seconds in breezy, sunny conditions at the Jeongseon Alpine Centre — although the 34-year-old missed an early gate which would have disqualified him in a real race.

Unfortunately Erik Guay would of easily been the Canadian with the best chances but he's been out with a bad back for most of the season.