Expansion Draft Scenario - Tanev vs Gio

[Niemo]

I'll start off by saying that Tanev is currently the better hockey player without doubt. Tanev will have 3 more years at 4.5MM and Gio will have 1 more year at 6.75MM. When we signed Tanev, our concern was not the first 2 years of the deal, but rather the last year.


What if Management doesn't want to see Gio go because he is the Captain and they want to resign him for cheap (hopefully very cheap) to retire a Flame?


Would Seattle PAY us if we left Tanev exposed to them instead of Gio? What would it take to make sense for the Flames?


Would Seattle take Lucic if we traded them Tanev for a 4th?



My ideal scenario is:


Chris Tanev for Seattle's 4th 2021


Seattle promises to take Milan Lucic in the expansion draft.

[bizaro86]

Lucic has a NMC. While I think he'll waive it, I would expect he may want management to promise that they don't pay Seattle to take him, which feels like a reasonable request.

[albertGQ]

My ideal scenario is that Tanev is protected over Gio.

If Gio is taken, so be it. If not, that's fine too. But DO NOT pay Seattle any assets to protect Gio.

[GioforPM]

I am way less worried about Tanev’s skill level in 3 years than Gio in 2. He plays a smart D that relies on IQ and position more than strength or speed. I could see him playing to Gio’s age.

Now, if you could pull off your deal, sure, though the 2021 draft is no beauty. But to drop Lucic’s salary? OK. The problem is Lucic has to waive and, in fairness, you’d better tell him that he’s going to be taken if he does. Right now he’d probably waive but secure in the knowledge that it’s not going to matter to his future here.

[dammage79]

It's a no Brainer IMO, expose gio, call it a day.

[Svartsengi]

I don’t see any reason to protect a 38 year old Giordano who could retire after next season. I think Seattle takes Kylington and lets him develop. Protect Tanev he has more value.

[868904]

Originally Posted by Svartsengi

I don’t see any reason to protect a 38 year old Giordano who could retire after next season. I think Seattle takes Kylington and lets him develop. Protect Tanev he has more value.

I think Treliving already has a deal with Francis.

Seattle takes Kylington and Flames will send them a 3rd round pick.

[Canada 02]

Tre's post-TDL presser, he implied that acquisition of draft picks could be used to protect additional players beyond the 7-3-1. Many here may not like that, but I fully expect Tre to find a way to protect both Gio and Tanev

I think the Leafs 3rd in 2022 will be used to protect Gio

[FlamesAddiction]

Protect Tanev. I don't think they take Giordano. They may not take Tanev either, but I would take him over Giordano at this point. The only reason they might take him is because they see some value in possibly trading him at the deadline for an asset, so he would be a placeholder for something in the future. But gambling on a 38 year old to put up a strong enough season to get a good return is risky and isn't worth the opportunity cost IMO. It would be like trading the boat for the mystery box.

I think the strongest candidates to be selected are; Dube, Backlund, and Kylington (not necessarily in that order). It sucks to admit it, but the Flames are not going to be exposing anyone who is a must-have for Seattle. They are going to have a fair number of veteran players to select from that teams want to dump, who are younger and more productive, so I can't see them wasting space on a 38 year-old. That's really the missing piece for trying to predict who they pick. It depends a lot on who is available from other teams. Dube and Kylington both have the most untapped potential. Francis is smart and I doubt he is going to draft veteran experience over potential when that can always be supplemented through trades and free agency. The expansion draft only happens once.

This of course is barring any trades. If we trade any key players for picks or prospects, it frees up another protection slot. I would much rather go that route than give up an asset to Seattle to not select a player that was part of this colossal failure of a season.

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by 868904

I think Treliving already has a deal with Francis.

Seattle takes Kylington and Flames will send them a 3rd round pick.

That's bad asset management IMO. Keep Kylington, save a ton of money and use the cap elsewhere. Your RFAs, trading for players from cash strapped teams...etc etc. Paying to take a cheap young asset over a soon to be retiree is bad. So very very bad.

[Dan403]

Originally Posted by albertGQ

My ideal scenario is that Tanev is protected over Gio.

If Gio is taken, so be it. If not, that's fine too. But DO NOT pay Seattle any assets to protect Gio.

This is the best scenario.

Protect your assets.

[dino7c]

I think it's a pretty safe bet that Gio will be worth more than a 3rd next deadline.

Flames could pay to protect Gio and still come out ahead in the long game picks wise

[Sylvanfan]

It will somewhat depend on what Direction the team wants to go. If they are going more of a rebuild route, than losing Tanev's cap hit, plus being out of Gio's to start the 2022 season clears out a lot of money. Plus I still think a pending UFA Giordano with salary retained will return some sort of draft capital next year, and it would be an okay return. Gio's play has fallen off, but the hyperbole around here that would make you think he couldn't play Mens rec league is really off. A contending team that could add him to the third pair and use him as insurance if a top 4 guy did go down and help on the PP has value...Rob Ramage anyone?

But if you are going rebuild you might also want to keep a vet around who's not that much older than the Hanifan/Anderson/Valimaki to properly mentor these guys.

Tanev would project to be the more effective guy going forward, but he also has 13.5 million in risk and 3 years left going forward. So if you tried to trade him next year, how much does that bring down a return...so even if you keep him you can't sell him for much for another 3 years...pushing out the impact of the return to 6 years sort of thing.

If the team still wants to compete and I think that's what they'll want to do, they probably opt to give something to Seattle to take something else and keep both. Likley one of these extra 2022 picks they picked up in the past couple days.

For me though from a cost/asset risk standpoint...expose Tanev, hope he get's taken, than you trade Gio at the deadline. free's up 11.25 million in cap space in a flat cap world, which brings a lot of potential oppurtunity into play. A chance to acquire assets the players on their own can't.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Canada 02

Tre's post-TDL presser, he implied that acquisition of draft picks could be used to protect additional players beyond the 7-3-1. Many here may not like that, but I fully expect Tre to find a way to protect both Gio and Tanev

I think the Leafs 3rd in 2022 will be used to protect Gio

Treliving g could have also been hinting that additional draft picks could be used to acquire players ahead of the expansion draft. In my opinion the Flames could expose all of Gio, Backlund and Tanev and acquire an additional forward or Dman from a team that doesn’t want to lose someone for nothing.

Flames can only lose one of the 3 and should be willing or prepared to lose any one of them and take the cap/term savings.

[VladtheImpaler]

Originally Posted by dino7c

I think it's a pretty safe bet that Gio will be worth more than a 3rd next deadline.

Flames could pay to protect Gio and still come out ahead in the long game picks wise

Probably, but it is not a safe bet. And I dont know that Seattle wants to pay $5M salary for whatever pick it is. Obviously, a lot of factors go into it.
I would leave Giordano exposed. What I think the Flames will do is protect Gio/Tanev and pay Seattle to leave the other alone because we are "contending".

[Pellanor]

It's interesting to consider paying Seattle to take somebody besides Gio (lets say Kylington), then seeing if we can trade Gio at the deadline for more. Might whatever we get for Gio be worth more than Kylington + whatever we give to Seattle?

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by dino7c

I think it's a pretty safe bet that Gio will be worth more than a 3rd next deadline.

Flames could pay to protect Gio and still come out ahead in the long game picks wise

If so, why would Seattle agree to this?

If you're looking purely at what a player could fetch at the next deadline, I'd think value is same to both parties. But one team probably not looking at it like that. I doubt Calgary sees themselves as sellers again.

[FlamesAddiction]

If we were going to use an asset to protect a player, I would do it for Dube over the others. Or am I wrong about him needing to be exposed?

Did any of those types of deals work in the Vegas draft, for the teams giving up the assets?

[Geeoff]

I wonder how this will play out if the axe falls on Treliving and a GM from outside the organization takes over

[Erick Estrada]

Exposing Gio is the correct call but protecting Gio would be very Calgary Flames.