The Matthew Tkachuk contract negotiations

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by blankall

I'd be happy with Tkachuk at 8. If that was the ask, I don't see why it wouldn't be done already. It's possible that Tkachuk's camp is also happy with 8, but is just in the milking it out phase, which is why we aren't hearing many crazy rumors about how difficult this process is, like with the Marner negotiations.

I would expect that term is more the issue. Tkachuk wants a shorter term but the AAV also. Treliving only wants to give an AAV starting with an 8 on a 7-8 year term.

Aho continued the market set my Matthews by getting the short term and the high AAV. So why wouldn’t Tkachuk want the best of both worlds?


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[bubbsy]

I see no reason for the rfa players to flinch. I think we're going to see a bunch of them missing camp and the start of the season.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by bubbsy

I see no reason for the rfa players to flinch. I think we're going to see a bunch of them missing camp and the start of the season.

I agree.

The RFA's want to reach UFA sooner than later. Not because they necessarily want to leave, but to cash in on the next 8 year contract.

Teams used to only give RFA"s the financial security they wanted if they agreed to give up some UFA years.

Players like Johnny who wanted to reach UFA sooner had to give up AAV in exchange for earlier lifetime security.

The Matthews contract started the tend to giving RFA's both.

If I was an owner, I'm not sure why I would give a RFA a contract that took them to UFA status with a high AAV and financial security without getting something in return (i.e. some UFA years).

Let the player go year to year if that's what they want.

Now the difficult choice is if the player holds out.

[Husky]

Originally Posted by FanIn80

Aho has 0.81 career points per game, and 0.34 career goals per game.
Tkachuk has 0.78 career points per game, and 0.32 career goals per game.

Aho skates faster and takes faceoffs.
Tkachuk hits, fights, draws penalties and leads (already wears an A).

Aho is 6’ 176lbs
Tkachuk is 6’2” 202lbs

They are both 21 and have each played 3 seasons.

Aho drives the offense on his line - MT does.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Husky

Aho drives the offense on his line - MT does.

Yes...

[GioforPM]

The main difference between Aho and Tkachuk is positional, but I think that positional difference is worth a fair bit of dough.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

The main difference between Aho and Tkachuk is positional, but I think that positional difference is worth a fair bit of dough.

Tkachuk brings a lot of grit to his play which likely makes up the difference in position.

[bubbsy]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

The main difference between Aho and Tkachuk is positional, but I think that positional difference is worth a fair bit of dough.

Mitch Marner's camp would disagree with that statement (in Toronto, claims are that he's using his teammate Mathews' as a direct comparable).

[kukkudo]

I have a feeling the Tkachuk camp is asking 8-8.5 per on a 5 Year deal.

[HighLifeMan]

Aho is currently the better player and has proven more in terms of the impact he has individually on his team and the ability to be the teams top player in all aspects.

In terms of team finishes Aho has placed 2nd, 1st, and 1st respectively in each of his first three seasons. Tkachuk on the other hand has finished 5th, 3rd, and 4th to start his career.

Aho has received recognition for his two way play (12th in Selke voting this year, 4th among forwards in takeaways), and was top ten in hart voting as well. None of which can be said for Tkachuk. Aho has also shown the ability to raise his game and lead his team deep into the playoffs. Tkachuk hasn't.

Over a 7 or 8 year term I can see the case for Tkachuk to be demanding 8.5M per year, but if he want's 5 years like Aho his caphit should drop significantly as he has proven less to date.

[kukkudo]

Originally Posted by HighLifeMan

Aho is currently the better player and has proven more in terms of the impact he has individually on his team and the ability to be the teams top player in all aspects.

In terms of team finishes Aho has placed 2nd, 1st, and 1st respectively in each of his first three seasons. Tkachuk on the other hand has finished 5th, 3rd, and 4th to start his career.

Aho has received recognition for his two way play (12th in Selke voting this year, 4th among forwards in takeaways), and was top ten in hart voting as well. None of which can be said for Tkachuk. Aho has also shown the ability to raise his game and lead his team deep into the playoffs. Tkachuk hasn't.

Over a 7 or 8 year term I can see the case for Tkachuk to be demanding 8.5M per year, but if he want's 5 years like Aho his caphit should drop significantly as he has proven less to date.

Yup I agree. That is why I am surprised Sens haven't thrown an offer sheet yet. They could throw a 9-9.5M 5 year offer sheet. Flames would match I think he also has to accept but that screws everything up.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by bubbsy

Mitch Marner's camp would disagree with that statement (in Toronto, claims are that he's using his teammate Mathews' as a direct comparable).

Interesting but I bet he doesn't get Matthews' salary.

[bubbsy]

Originally Posted by kukkudo

Yup I agree. That is why I am surprised Sens haven't thrown an offer sheet yet. They could throw a 9-9.5M 5 year offer sheet. Flames would match I think he also has to accept but that screws everything up.

Sens first rounder is likely a high lottery, top 3 pick this year. I doubt they offer sheet anyone because of that.

Offer sheets make absolute sense for teams who see their window being open over the next few seasons, where the 1st round picks they are giving up are expected to be very late first rounders.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by HighLifeMan

In terms of team finishes Aho has placed 2nd, 1st, and 1st respectively in each of his first three seasons. Tkachuk on the other hand has finished 5th, 3rd, and 4th to start his career.

This is about as irrelevant as a data point as you can get when comparing the two. Aho is 2/1/1 over three seasons because he's 4/3/1 in ice time for forwards, playing 200 more minutes than Tkachuk last year and putting up a whopping 5 more points (all of which are secondary assists... woohoo).

Tkachuk on the other hand, is 7/6/4 in ice time for forwards over the last 3 years.

Calgary is also stacked offensively, Tkachuk doesn't even need to play on the first line to keep pace with Aho offensively. Suggesting whether they're 1st or 25th on team scoring is meaningless without context like ice time, or how many points they actually scored.

[FanIn80]

Originally Posted by HighLifeMan

Aho is currently the better player and has proven more in terms of the impact he has individually on his team and the ability to be the teams top player in all aspects.

In terms of team finishes Aho has placed 2nd, 1st, and 1st respectively in each of his first three seasons. Tkachuk on the other hand has finished 5th, 3rd, and 4th to start his career.

Aho has received recognition for his two way play (12th in Selke voting this year, 4th among forwards in takeaways), and was top ten in hart voting as well. None of which can be said for Tkachuk. Aho has also shown the ability to raise his game and lead his team deep into the playoffs. Tkachuk hasn't.

Over a 7 or 8 year term I can see the case for Tkachuk to be demanding 8.5M per year, but if he want's 5 years like Aho his caphit should drop significantly as he has proven less to date.

So you’re saying that the best player from Carolina, who plays in all of the top line offensive deployments but still only has 0.03 points per game more than the guy who plays 2nd line shutdown minutes in Calgary, is worth more? Not just that, but he’s worth more specifically because he gets the most points on his team?

I’d be interested in seeing opposition-strength comparisons for the two players over their careers. I think it’s worth reminding some folks that Tkachuk has played his entire career on the second line in a shutdown role with Backlund and Frolik — consistently deployed against opposition top lines. Since the current discussion is “Aho is worth more than Tkachuk,” I think it’s also worth mentioning (again) that there’s only a 0.03 career points per game (0.02 goals per game) difference between the two, in spite of how the two players have been deployed over their careers.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

This is about as irrelevant as a data point as you can get when comparing the two. Aho is 2/1/1 over three seasons because he's 4/3/1 in ice time for forwards, playing 200 more minutes than Tkachuk last year and putting up a whopping 5 more points (all of which are secondary assists... woohoo).

Tkachuk on the other hand, is 7/6/4 in ice time for forwards over the last 3 years.

Calgary is also stacked offensively, Tkachuk doesn't even need to play on the first line to keep pace with Aho offensively. Suggesting whether they're 1st or 25th on team scoring is meaningless without context like ice time, or how many points they actually scored.

Exceptional point.

Tkachuk has been able to get lots of points playing with substandard line mates, other than when he gets PP time.

He,in fact, needs to drive the offense on his lines (other than PP time).

Considering that he's not the leading scorer on his teams, is actually more impressive.

[direwolf]

Is he signed yet?

[CN10]

I like that the Tkachuk negotiation hasn't played out via the media as much as the Nylander & Aho one did (a function of the hold out and offer sheet respectively) and the Marner one is (a function of it being a Leaf player). It seems like nobody wants to be the first to sign (except Aho who looks like he wanted to get it done fast on his terms by using Montreal as a pawn). I feel like the Flames can probably wait a bit longer to get it done, but will probably want to be close to the final number ahead of signing Bennett & Rittich prior to their arbitration hearings.

Tkachuk is obviously a valuable player to the team and both his camp and Treliving know that. I just also think that it would be hard for the GM to say to the rest of the team that he is more valuable than Gaudreau and Giordano by giving him a higher % of cap hit. Both those guys signed for 9.25% of the cap for 6 years at the time they put pen to paper. I think that based on this the Flames offer is likely 6 x $7.54M which seems fair. If Tkachuk is pushing for less term which I expect he may be given his comments about the Mathews deal, I expect that the Flames will want to lower the cap hit and that is likely the sticking point. We can thank Dubas for paying UFA price for RFA years on the Mathews deal for complicating all RFA negotiations this off season.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by CN10

I like that the Tkachuk negotiation hasn't played out via the media as much as the Nylander & Aho one did (a function of the hold out and offer sheet respectively) and the Marner one is (a function of it being a Leaf player). It seems like nobody wants to be the first to sign (except Aho who looks like he wanted to get it done fast on his terms by using Montreal as a pawn). I feel like the Flames can probably wait a bit longer to get it done, but will probably want to be close to the final number ahead of signing Bennett & Rittich prior to their arbitration hearings.

Tkachuk is obviously a valuable player to the team and both his camp and Treliving know that. I just also think that it would be hard for the GM to say to the rest of the team that he is more valuable that Gaudreau and Giordano by giving him a higher % of cap hit. Both those guys signed for 9.25% of the cap for 6 years at the time they put pen to paper. I think that based on this the Flames offer is likely 6 x $7.54M which seems fair. If Tkachuk is pushing for less term which I expect he may be given his comments about the Mathews deal, I expect that the Flames will want to lower the cap hit and that is likely the sticking point. We can thank Dubas for paying UFA price for RFA years on the Mathews deal for complicating all RFA negotiations this off season.

If Treliving is set on sticking to the % of cap hit for those guys, he'll be pretty disappointed I think.

The market has changed, and RFA's are getting paid more than there were in the past.

[CalgaryFan1988]

Originally Posted by FanIn80

Aho has 0.81 career points per game, and 0.34 career goals per game.
Tkachuk has 0.78 career points per game, and 0.32 career goals per game.

Aho skates faster and takes faceoffs.
Tkachuk hits, fights, draws penalties and leads (already wears an A).

Aho is 6’ 176lbs
Tkachuk is 6’2” 202lbs

They are both 21 and have each played 3 seasons.

I agree with everything in your post, except for the "he fights" comment which I have read a few times over the last couple of months.
Tkachuk doesn't fight in the context where it's used as a plus in contract negotiations. He is an agitator who drops the gloves a few times a season, of which he is usually on the losing end.

*edit In his defence he's only going to get bigger and stronger.