Flames - can they score 300? How does it stack up in history?

[DeluxeMoustache]

Firstly, the reason I started thinking about this is that Calgary this year has been lighting it up. It’s awesome. With 250 goals in 70 games, they are on pace for 293 goals this year, and with a very strong finish could push for 300. I wanted to look back and see how that stacked up over time. (Also that led to a look at goal scoring over time, including before and after the dead puck era, and some factors that impacted it.)

300 is still a stretch, but it has only been done 3 times in the NHL from 1996-97 forward!

Here are all of the 300+ goal seasons in the NHL since 1995-96.
2009-10: Caps had 313.
2005-06: Ottawa 312, Detroit 301

Fun facts:
- Flames have scored over 300 goals 13 times. The last time was 1993-94
- In 1987-88 they scored a franchise high 397.
- Flames passed last year’s dismal total of 226 goals last month, ie. in February. I think it was the game against Ottawa.

So the last time the Flames scored over 300 was prior to the ‘dead puck era’.

Then I looked back at the years prior to that and trying to remember what exactly changed.

I kind of remembered the dead puck era as generally post 1994 lockout. People talked about the trap, goaltending getting better, etc.

Around 1995-96 and 1996-97 is where the massive step down seems to have happened, but it was kind of over two years.

The top team, the Penguins, dropped from 362 to 285 GF. Mario’s points went from 161 to 122 that year.

Mind you, league average goals did not drop as substantially immediately.

NHL team goals per game and PP goals per game from 1990 onwards
* 1990-91: 3.46 - 0.89
* 1991-92: 3.48 - 0.97
* 1992-93: 3.63 - 1.03
* 1993-94: 3.24 - 0.90
* 1994-95: 2.99 - 0.77 (Lockout shortened. Jersey wins first cup trapping)
* 1995-96: 3.14 - 0.90 ( increase in ‘calling the rules by the book’ - note the PP goal bump)
1996-97: 2.92 - 0.67 (tag up rule change implemented)
1997-98: 2.64 - 0.70
1998-99: 2.63 - 0.69
1999-2000: 2.75 - 0.65 (crease rule removed)
2000-01: 2.76 - 0.76
2001-02: 2.62 - 0.65
2002-03: 2.65 - 0.73
2003-04: 2.57 - 0.70
2004-05: * Lockout - many rule changes - tag up rule reinstated, red line removal, goalie equipment major changes, trapezoid rule
2005-06: 3.08 - 1.03
2006-07: 2.95 - 0.85
2007-08: 2.78 - 0.76
2008-09: 2.91 - 0.79
2009-10: 2.84 - 0.68
2010-11: 2.79 - 0.64
2011-12: 2.73 - 0.57
2012-13: 2.72 - 0.61
2013-14: 2.74 - 0.59
2014-15: 2.73 - 0.57
2015-16: 2.71 - 0.58
2016-17: 2.77 - 0.57 - goalie pants reduced mid season
2017-18: 2.97 - 0.61
2018-19: 3.03 - 0.59 - goalie chest protector reduced prior to season . Flames are awesome again.



Here are some more detail on the rule changes that were implemented to influence scoring.

Selected rule changes taken from
https://records.nhl.com/history/historical-rule-changes
with some added notes

1990-91 The goal lines, blue lines, defensive zone face-off circles and markings all moved one foot out from the end boards, creating 11 feet of room behind the nets and shrinking the neutral zone from 60 to 58 feet.

1991-92 Video replays employed to assist referees in goal/no goal situations. Size of goal crease increased. Crease changed to semi-circular configuration.
... Penalties added for crease infringement and unnecessary contact with goaltender. Goal disallowed if puck enters net while a player of the attacking team is standing on the goal crease line, is in the goal crease or places his stick in the goal crease.

1992-93 ... Minor penalty for attempting to draw a penalty ("diving"). Game misconduct penalty for instigating a fight

1993-94 High sticking redefined to allow goals scored with a high stick below the height of the crossbar of the goal frame.

1995-96 - (DM: no rule changes, but an increase in ‘calling the rules by the book’ leading to a boost in power play goals )

1996-97 ... All players must be clear of the attacking zone prior to the puck being shot into that zone. The opportunity to "tag-up" and return into the zone has been removed.

1998-99 Goal line moved to 13 feet from end boards. Goal crease altered to extend one foot beyond each goal post (eight feet across in total. Sides of crease squared off, extending 4'6". Only the top of the crease remains rounded. Only the top of the crease remains rounded.

1999-2000 (DM: After Stanley Cup embarrassment.. ) Crease rule revised to implement a "no harm, no foul, no video review" standard. Teams to play with four skaters and a goaltender in regular-season overtime. If a goal is scored in regular-season overtime, the winner is awarded two points and the loser one point. In no goal is scored in overtime, both teams are awarded one point.

2005-06 The NHL adopted a comprehensive package of rule changes that included the following: Goal line moved to 11 feet from end boards; blue lines moved to 75 feet from end boards, reducing neutral zone from 54 feet to 50 feet. Center red line eliminated for two-line passes. "Tag-up" off-side rule reinstituted. Goaltender not permitted to play the puck outside a designated trapezoid-shaped area behind the net. A team that ices the puck is not permitted to make any player substitutions prior to the ensuing faceoff. ... The size of goaltender equipment reduced. If a game remains tied after five minutes of overtime, winner determined by shootout.

(DM: Goalie gloves and jersey sizes reduced. Pad height proportional to player height and width reduced from 12 to 11 inches)

2011-12
(DM: Goalie pad height reduced)

2015-16 Teams to play with three skaters and a goaltender in regular-season overtime. Coaches may request video review of off-sides or goaltender interference when a goal is scored.

2016-17 - (DM: Feb 2017 - goalie pants size reduced)

2018-19 (DM: Goalie chest protector size reduced )

I know that over time, we saw scoring dry up in the dead puck era
- the trap was implemented, perfected, imitated and subsequently rules instated to try and negate it
- Goalies got better and equipment size got silly
- The tag up rule survived a while and correlated as well with that dead puck era, except for year 1.

To get scoring back, there were a lot of rules specifically to thwart the play elements that made the trap successful, crackdown on obstruction, the removal of the red line, introduction of the trapezoid.

Is the impact of the tag up rule as part of the dead puck era underestimated?

There is a lot more review of goals due to goaltender interference and offside now. It doesn’t seem to have impacted overall scoring though

I don’t know what the point of this was. Just interested in looking over time and seeing how we got here, thinking about what worked and what didn’t.

Do you think we are at a sweet spot for hockey now in terms of overall offense?
Anything you would like to see changed?

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Do you think we are at a sweet spot for hockey now in terms of overall offense?
Anything you would like to see changed?

Modernize the offside rule so it actually matches the spirit of its inception instead of being a way to take exciting possessions / goals away from teams and fans.

[FanIn80]

Didn't want to make a new thread, and this kind of fits the topic...

- Lindholm needs three goals to give us four 30-goal scorers on the season
- Backlund needs one goal to give us five 20-goal scorers on the season
- Provided Backlund scores one, Gio would need six goals to give us six 20-goal scorers on the season.

The last point is a bit of a stretch, but when was the last time we had either of the first two points?

[SofaProfessor]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Modernize the offside rule so it actually matches the spirit of its inception instead of being a way to take exciting possessions / goals away from teams and fans.

Agree but I do feel like they have done a better job calling it this year with the video replays. It feels like there are fewer calls where they are going CSI on the video footage to find out that you could fit a piece of paper between the player's skate and the ice. The skater seems to be getting the benefit of the doubt more than they were the last couple of years but that's just a personal feeling so it may not be rooted in fact.

The threat of a penalty on a missed challenge is probably the biggest deterrent that stops coaches from trying to overturn the really, really close plays.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by FanIn80

Didn't want to make a new thread, and this kind of fits the topic...

- Lindholm needs three goals to give us four 30-goal scorers on the season
- Backlund needs one goal to give us five 20-goal scorers on the season
- Provided Backlund scores one, Gio would need six goals to give us six 20-goal scorers on the season.

The last point is a bit of a stretch, but when was the last time we had either of the first two points?

Flames haven't had three 30+ goal scorers since the 06/07 season (Iggy, Langkow, Huselius).

They haven't had four 30+ goal scorers since 93/94 (Reichel, Fleury, Roberts, Nieuwendyk). The first three actually had 40, 40 and 41 goals respectively.

[agulati]

I think it was it 93-94 for four 30 goal scorers out of which three of them had 40 goal seasons. Roberts (41), Reichel (40), Fleury (40) and Nieuwendyk (36) were the goal scorers. Macinnis (28) and Titov (27) just missed that plateau too.

I believe it was the same year for 20 goal scorers too. We had 6 that year.

[joejoe3]

Originally Posted by FanIn80

Didn't want to make a new thread, and this kind of fits the topic...

- Lindholm needs three goals to give us four 30-goal scorers on the season
- Backlund needs one goal to give us five 20-goal scorers on the season
- Provided Backlund scores one, Gio would need six goals to give us six 20-goal scorers on the season.

The last point is a bit of a stretch, but when was the last time we had either of the first two points?

- James Neal needs to score 15 more goals to remain as an annual 20 goal scorer in this league.

[looooob]

Fun facts:
- Flames have scored over 300 goals 13 times. The last time was 1993-94
- In 1987-88 they scored a franchise high 397.



One of my favorite little facts is the 397 goals scored by the Flames in 87-88 is the highest ever total by a team that didn't have either Gretzky or Orr on it


the 87-88 Flames deep was a deep, stacked offensive juggernaut, although the 2 ST L trades that turned Hull, Bullard and others into Gilmour, Ramage, Hunter, Wamsley and others led to a net downturn in team offense the team defense approved to a greater degree, leading to a more balanced and as it turns out Cup ready team

[lazypucker]

50 goals in 12 games? That's is about 4.2 goals/game. Doable, but unlikely, unless the Flames have a couple more games scoring 7 or 8 goals...

[agulati]

Flames are averaging 2.94 GF/G on the road and 4.23 GF/G at home. They have 7 home games and 5 road games left. At their current home and road pace they are on track to get 44 more goals. That is not taking into consideration the quality of opposition left.

[Sylvanfan]

Back when Cowperson used to post here, he often opined about two constants that had an impact on the number of goals. Average age of players in the league at that time, and number of teams who made the playoffs.

In a younger league, the number of goals per game tended to be higher, as less experienced players didn't defend as well as more experienced ones did. Younger players are faster, and a bit riskier.

As the NHL expanded from 1991 on the number of playoff teams has stayed constant at 16. The 91 to 94 expansion from 21 to 24 teams where San Jose, Florida and Ottawa were added did result in a bit of an explosion in goals initially. But at that time there was a largely untapped talent pool of Eastern European players who suddenly were much easier for NHL teams to get over into the league. Even other places like Sweden and Finland started having more players come over, and be able to come over younger. So at that time the talent pool was able to support additional teams.

But after that pool was tapped into and the late 90's expansion happened there no longer was the untapped pool of talent. So coaching became a bigger factor as teams employed more defensive systems to help them not lose more games. Also factor in demographics as the league got older. By the late 2000's the league was still largely comprised of Baby boomers who's careers had been prolonged by having the league go from 26 teams to 30 teams at the end of the 90's.

The 2004-05 lockout essentially ended the career of a lot of the Baby Boomers. But again, this couples with the fact that the last chunk of the Baby Boomers form 1960 to 66 more or less had aged out, and the 1980 and on echo generation was beginning to emerge. So the rule change coupled with a shift to a younger league contributed to scoring increases. But the league stayed the same age, and coaching again took hold, and it started to become hard to score again.

The recent rules do seem to have resulted in a few more goals, but I tend to think that it's going to trend down a bit again as goaltenders re-adjust their playing styles, and teams will also alter their defensive strategies.

I'd be interested to see how Save Percentages worked in relation to goals scored. I'd also be interested to break the NHL season down into chunks and see what that looks like. My old world eye test tells me that as the season wears on, scoring tends to decrease, particularly post all star break...but is that just a Flames bias that I have?

At this point a scoring decrease for an average of 12 games per team isn't going to drag the numbers down two much, maybe .02 goals a game. But it did seem like at mid season there was a lot of players scoring at a 120 point pace. Today, those guys might end up with 105 sort of thing.

As for the Flames, I think 300 isn't going to happen. Ideally 6 goals a game or where we currently are at is a good number. You still see the odd high scoring game, but you also get those tightly contested 2-1 games too.

[FireGilbert]

This season has been so much fun so far. It is awesome seeing the Flames offence challenging milestones that haven't been met in ages.

Crazy that Tampa is on pace to hit 300 goals with 4 games to spare. Also looks like the Leafs and Sharks have a chance to hit 300.

I will add that your correlation between the goalie equipment changes and more offence is solid but I also theorise a Golden Knights impact on this season. In the 90s teams like the Devils and Panthers played the trap and became far better than the sum of their parts. Other teams copied this. Last season the Knights played a high tempo high pressure style which turned a team of misfits into the Stanley Cup finalists. Other teams copied this.

[calumniate]

Depends.. do we get to play 7uongo soon?

[#-3]

This year being the third lowest year is the most surprising thing to me. Maybe there is a strange flamescentric bias for me. But scoring just seemed high this year.

[Samonadreau]

I can't believe that a 2 Line Pass was actually a thing. Seems so foreign now.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by #-3

This year being the third lowest year is the most surprising thing to me. Maybe there is a strange flamescentric bias for me. But scoring just seemed high this year.

Scoring is *very* high this year. It is the highest goals per game since 2005-06

Interesting to me is when you look at scoring not including power plays.

The two numbers shown for each year are total goals per game and PP goals per game. If you take the difference between the numbers, that is essentially the goals not scored on the PP (so mainly even strength, plus the shorties). Let’s assume shorties are a minor contribution, and a wash over the years.

Then even strength numbers this year are very, very close to 90-91 through 92-93 numbers. So the 5 on 5 game is arguably as high scoring as it has been since about when the Flames won the Cup.

(The difference in overall scoring is mainly due to fewer power play goals). I wouldn’t have thought that!

I think the NHL may have really gotten some things right!

[JD]

On a side note, I hate the term "dead puck era". It unnecessarily derides a time when the hockey was pretty good, at least from my perspective. There were the "big 4" in the Western Conference (Dallas, Colorado, Detroit, and St. Louis) and they had polarizing styles of play. The Blues and Stars tended to play defensive styles, so they, along with the Devils in the East, seemed to have the formula to thwart powerhouse teams like the Wings and Avs.

It's not surprising that less talented clubs like the Ducks and Flames found some success in that era by concentrating on limiting chances and having taking advantage of amazing goaltending. Having one or two true offensive gamebreakers up front seemed to be part of that formula too. That was the only way they could win. Lots of people mistook this as a lack of entertainment but I found it to be an interesting contrast in styles, not to mention that David vs. Goliath underdog metaphor.

As for this version of the Flames, the playoff outcome will be what eventually writes the tale of what this team turned out to be. Were they a bunch of soft skilled small guys that could outskate everyone in the regular season but couldn't ramp it up when the going gets tough? Or were they a deep team that could hurt you from every spot in their lineup, winning games no matter what style the game took? They've shown signs of the latter but we'll see in a few weeks!

[bob-loblaw]

Down to 45 left with 11 games. If Tkachuk stays motivated they will easily. Lols.

[GullFoss]

This is a good thread!

I really like the goals per game right now - lots of high scoring games and come back victories. But also still room for goalies and defensive players to win 2-1 and 1-0 games.

The only thing I dislike about the league right now is that hitting is way down. Players rarely finish their checks on the forcheck. A lot of opportunities still exist to take the body and most teams let up. What is most curious about this is that taking the body and playing heavy is a big reason why the Caps won last year, a big reason why Vegas had success last year and a big reason behind why Tampa is so dominant this year. So playing heavy is still effective, but isn’t popular...which is very peculiar

[Hackey]

Chicago has 241 GF. 8th in the league for GF but 21st in the standings because they have the second worst GA.

Dallas surprisingly has the second best GA in the league.