2015/2016 Trade Speculation and Rumors v2

[burnitdown]

Originally Posted by Fan in Exile

Why? You don't think it tells a story when a player has the worst plus/minus on the team? He has a negative goal differential that is 13 goals worse than any other forward on the team. You don't think that an "advanced stats" analysis would tell a similar story? Plus/minus is an easily accessible stat that says something about a player. You want to produce something that suggests that Iginla was a solid two-way player that contradicts his -22? Go ahead and produce it.

Are Ferland, Hamilton and Bennett our worst players? Are Backlund and Engelland our best players? I wouldn't read too much into +/-.

[MarkGio]

Originally Posted by Fan in Exile

Why? You don't think it tells a story when a player has the worst plus/minus on the team? He has a negative goal differential that is 13 goals worse than any other forward on the team. You don't think that an "advanced stats" analysis would tell a similar story? Plus/minus is an easily accessible stat that says something about a player. You want to produce something that suggests that Iginla was a solid two-way player that contradicts his -22? Go ahead and produce it.

Well, if you watched hockey or played hockey, you'd know why plus or minus is not telling. A lot of goals happen during line changes. So if a lazy player decides not to backcheck and then goes for a line change, the person stepping on the ice will get a minus if the team is scored on.

A lot of goals happen after the penalty expired, but the killers are still hemmed in their own zone, each penalty killer gets a minus. A guy who gets a lot of defensive starts gets minus compared to someone who gets a lot of offensive starts. The offensive guy who plays against weak 4th liners because their not trusted to play defense against good opponents usually has a plus stat.

The forward who was standing in the crease doing his job screening the goalie gets a minus if his bone headed defensemen turns the puck over at the line while and causes a break away against. The defensemen who does his job keeping shots to the outside gets a minus when his goalie gives up a softy. The forward who was skating up ice was suppose to receive a pass but it got intercepted.

I could go on and on. Stats can be useful, but plus or minus is more reflective of a team. It's like comparing shooting percentages of players.

[MarkGio]

Iginla would immediately replace Wideman on the power play. His 13 pp goals beats Wideman's 2 goals.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by MarkGio

I can't believe people still look at plus minus stats when evaluating players

Well, since most people don't bother watching the hockey games and seeing what a player really looks like you have to comparative statistics to make the point. I can't believe that some fans are stupid enough to think that having the worse plus/minus on a hockey team, and by a substantial number, while playing sheltered minutes is not a damn song statement to make about the quality of a hockey player! I mean, if plus/minus do won't mean anything. Then Nail Yakupov is one helluva hockey player!

[Roof-Daddy]

Radulov is very intriguing provided he's matured. He may be a left shooter, but he plays right wing and IMO would round out the top line nicely.

Also, although he's not huge, he's not small either at about roughly the same size as Frolik.

Nice short term deal would be perfect, if that's what he's looking for. It would bridge the Flames to the point where hopefully one/two of Shinkaruk/Poirier/Mangiapane/2016 1st are hopefully ready to cement themselves into the top six.

He could probably put up 20-30g/50-60p playing on a line with Johnny and Mony.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by burnitdown

To be fair, the Avs had <5% chance of making the playoffs when those last 9 games began. They weren't exactly the games they needed the most and Iggy just let them down.

Where did you get that 5% number from?

Colorado was in a playoff spot with 9 games left in the season. After 73 games, Colorado had 80 points to Minnesota's 79, and the had the edge in ROWs, so they owned the tiebreaker too.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by getbak

Where did you get that 5% number from?

Colorado was in a playoff spot with 9 games left in the season. After 73 games, Colorado had 80 points to Minnesota's 79, and the had the edge in ROWs, so they owned the tiebreaker too.

ouch.

[burnitdown]

Originally Posted by getbak

Where did you get that 5% number from?

Colorado was in a playoff spot with 9 games left in the season. After 73 games, Colorado had 80 points to Minnesota's 79, and the had the edge in ROWs, so they owned the tiebreaker too.

Sports Club Stats (main site everyone uses for playoff odds) - doesn't show exact dates on their graphs but basically a few days before the end of March is when they had ~5% odds of making the playoffs. So perhaps the 5% is after 8 games instead of 9 games to go. Either way, the point remains, they were pretty much out of it at the very start of that extended losing streak so it's a little unfair to point to Iginla failing the team.

[MarkGio]

Originally Posted by New Era

Well, since most people don't bother watching the hockey games and seeing what a player really looks like you have to comparative statistics to make the point. I can't believe that some fans are stupid enough to think that having the worse plus/minus on a hockey team, and by a substantial number, while playing sheltered minutes is not a damn song statement to make about the quality of a hockey player! I mean, if plus/minus do won't mean anything. Then Nail Yakupov is one helluva hockey player!

Substantial? Erik Johnson is a -19, which is 3 difference. Barrie is a -16.

Both Barrie and Johnson are the Avs best players outside of Varlamov. Stupid fans indeed...

[JJ1532]

Originally Posted by MarkGio

Substantial? Erik Johnson is a -19, which is 3 difference. Barrie is a -16.

Both Barrie and Johnson are the Avs best players outside of Varlamov. Stupid fans indeed...

Johnson is a better player than MacKinnon and Duchene?

[Fan in Exile]

Originally Posted by burnitdown

Are Ferland, Hamilton and Bennett our worst players? Are Backlund and Engelland our best players? I wouldn't read too much into +/-.

I didn't reduce the assessment of a player's worth to plus/minus. Do I think Iginla was the Avs' "worst player" this year because he had the worst plus/minus? No. But obviously, taking into account that he produced 13 goals and 9 assists out of his 22 goals and 47 points total, he isn't exactly tearing it up even-strength, and considering no other forward is close to his negative numbers, he is not strong defensively.

Whether or not that makes him worth putting on the Flames is not what I even started out disputing. What I'm disputing is that plus/minus is meaningless. Like I said, show me some other stats that contradict the obvious inference.

As for the Flames, I think the fact that Backlund is the forward with the best plus/minus is pretty indicative of the fact he is probably our best two-way forward; Bennett and Ferland still have a way to go and spent a lot of time on weaker lines. Hamilton, despite his point production still struggled defensively for much of the year. Engelland plays a lower risk game at lower minutes, and yes I think his positive plus/minus says something positive about his game that it would be foolish to ignore.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by burnitdown

Sports Club Stats (main site everyone uses for playoff odds) - doesn't show exact dates on their graphs but basically a few days before the end of March is when they had ~5% odds of making the playoffs. So perhaps the 5% is after 8 games instead of 9 games to go. Either way, the point remains, they were pretty much out of it at the very start of that extended losing streak so it's a little unfair to point to Iginla failing the team.

Eyeballing their graphs as closely as I could, I found that the time when they crossed 80 points is as far away from the end of the graph (regular season) as the time when they peaked with a 40% chance to make the playoffs. That would be when they had 9 games to go. After that, they fell off a cliff within a few days.

It doesn't stand to reason that a team actually in a playoff position could have only a 5% chance to make the playoffs. And in fact, that isn't what the graph shows, either.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by MarkGio

Substantial? Erik Johnson is a -19, which is 3 difference. Barrie is a -16.

Both Barrie and Johnson are the Avs best players outside of Varlamov. Stupid fans indeed...

Compare apples to apples please. Try looking at forwards and not defensemen, who get a lot more ice time and traditionally have more negative plus/minus stats. Stupid fan indeed...

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by heep223

Just looking at Iggy's stats and wow, the Avs lost 8 of their last 9 games when they needed them most. That hurts.

sounds like nothing has changed...

[MissTeeks]

More from Friedman on his Wideman to Edmonton suggestion:

http://www.todaysslapshot.com/from-t...n-makes-sense/

“I do wonder if Calgary and Wideman are going to say, ‘Is it time for a fresh start?’ It was a really rough end to the season for everybody this year. There might be some hurt feelings over some of the stuff that came out in the testimony.

“I’m wondering if they kind of talk to each other and say, ‘Is it time to start somewhere else here?’

“And Edmonton is a team that could use a defenseman. Wideman would get opportunity there. He’s going to have to sign a new contract after next year if he plays well in Edmonton. I think that’ll do very well for him.

“But there’s a GM there who acquired Dennis Wideman in a trade. Traded him later. So he knows him well. It’s easy for his family because it’s not far. It was just me kind of putting 2 and 2 together, taking an educated guess, and wondering if there’s a fit there.

“And there are guys he knows. He played with Matt Hendricks, in Washington I believe. So there’s going to be some understanding of guys in that room.

“It’s speculatory, but sometimes I like to see and say, ‘If I connect the dots, does this make any sense,’ and kind of just throw it out there.”

[flamesforcup]

https://twitter.com/SlavaMalamud/sta...45636203409409
reported that radulov is coming back to the nhl. Perfect player for the flames a 60ish point rw i would assume right now. How much would u guys offer?

[Coach]

definitely had some very good seasons in the KHL, but he's never really impressed me over here. Particularly attitude wise. I'd probably avoid him unless it was a pretty cheap and short deal.

[dammage79]

Give him a Cervenka deal. See if he can be a commited player for the entire season. Could help in a playoff push. Dude has the skill, the desire is whats always been lacking.

[hockey.modern]

Back in the 2014 draft*

NicholsOnHockey:

Friedman believes when #TBLightning tried to trade up to get #FlaPanthers' pick (2014/Ekblad), offer was Vasilevskiy, Drouin & their 1st.

[Vinny01]

That's a hell of an offer. Wonder if it was Ekblad or another player they were targeting?

Could of had Jones in 2013

Spector had ru ores the Flames talked Stamkos for Bennett+ over the summer (very vague rumor but multiple sources confirmed the Flames and Sabres talked Stamkos with the Lightning last year)