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Old 05-10-2010, 02:49 PM   #121
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Originally Posted by afc wimbledon View Post
neither of those are a bad trades though, kotilik is the obvious example of why a bad trade hurts, he doesn't produce, he kills your cap and he isn't easy to move.

Or to put it another way, say they hadn't traded the first rounder to Phoenix, never got Oli in the first place, even if that pick had failed, you still would have 6 million cap space to buy a UFA, and if the pick works out you get a good player plus cap space.
I think the Flames were banking on another late round pick. For years peopel had been saying that the problem with the Flames was a lack of a #1 centre. That's why Jokinen was brought in. It turned out to be an awful awful move, but at the time I remember being extactic about it. The Flames were already having a great season and this seemed like the move to put them over the top.

For whatever reason the team absolutely fell apart immediately after Jokinen was picked up. It may have been due to injuries on the back end, but something happened with the offence too. With Bourque, Cammy, Jokinen, and Iggy all playing great that should have been enough to overcome the defensive injuries. Something happened with the team as a whole and that is why we are in the current situation.
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Old 05-10-2010, 02:56 PM   #122
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I think the Flames were banking on another late round pick. For years peopel had been saying that the problem with the Flames was a lack of a #1 centre. That's why Jokinen was brought in. It turned out to be an awful awful move, but at the time I remember being extactic about it. The Flames were already having a great season and this seemed like the move to put them over the top.

For whatever reason the team absolutely fell apart immediately after Jokinen was picked up. It may have been due to injuries on the back end, but something happened with the offence too. With Bourque, Cammy, Jokinen, and Iggy all playing great that should have been enough to overcome the defensive injuries. Something happened with the team as a whole and that is why we are in the current situation.

It wasn't just the defensive injuries (Gio from January on, Regehr for the last 10 games or so, Sarich with a broken foot) it was the injuries to the forwards as well. Bourque was gone for the season not long after Gio, Langkow broke his hand right after that and probably shouldn't have been playing at all, and Bertuzzi missed a month with knee surgery. that was our whole second line either out or rendered useless from February on. Not many teams (if any at all) could handle that amount of injuries.
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Old 05-10-2010, 03:02 PM   #123
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Originally Posted by afc wimbledon View Post
neither of those are a bad trades though, kotilik is the obvious example of why a bad trade hurts, he doesn't produce, he kills your cap and he isn't easy to move.

Or to put it another way, say they hadn't traded the first rounder to Phoenix, never got Oli in the first place, even if that pick had failed, you still would have 6 million cap space to buy a UFA, and if the pick works out you get a good player plus cap space.

I agree the Jokinen trade turned out to be beyond disasterous for us. We lost so much and all we have to show for it is Kotalik. At the time though you get a guy who we all wanted for a while to round out a team that was considered a legit cup threat.

At the time I was ready to plan the parade but that deal set us back farther than anyone would imagine.

We lost a pick that turned into the 14th overall choice. We lost Cammelari, we lost Lombardi, Prust, and all we have to show for it now is Kotalik who is a $3M question mark on our team. That is Sutter's fault and I am all for firing the guy.

My arguement is the fact you can flip 2nd,3rd, even 1st rounders for good players as long as they are in that key age range of under 27 and it is still a good deal.

Good trades - 1st for Cammy (26), 2nd Bourque (27), 2nd Kipper (26). If you pull a Nonis and deal a 2nd for Keith Carney then that is a terrible move. Staios for a 3rd is not bad unless he is signed for another year which he is.... terrible trade.

I understand you also can't do this every single year or it will come back to bite you eventually, but if the right player and the right deal come along then the GM should make the trade.
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Old 05-10-2010, 03:28 PM   #124
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I'm not arguing a team should never make a trade, just pointing out that a trade has far more downside than a draft. When a draft goes well you get a young cheap player who will add to the team for a decade or so one way or another, if it goes badly you wasted a pick, that's all.

If you make a good trade you get a player who is going to either have or quickly be payed an average salery and adds to your team for a few years, after you have calculated what it cost (players and drafts) to get him. There is far less upside to the upside, both in terms of cap space and the time you get the benefit.
On the down side a trade that fails gets you a roster player who uses up cap room and takes up roster space, and may cost you decent peices to get rid of, that is a huge downside as oppsed to a bad draft pick who buggers off back to whichever hole he came from and costs you nothing.

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Old 05-10-2010, 03:36 PM   #125
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So we can agree there is a time and place to perhaps trade a draft pick or two? To fill a immediate hole in the lineup for a player with good upside. However it is also important to ensure you have cheap talent in the near future by drafting the right players you will need on your team in the next 3-5 years?
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Old 05-10-2010, 03:41 PM   #126
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Quote:
Originally Posted by afc wimbledon View Post
When a draft goes well you get a young cheap player who will add to the team for a decade or so one way or another, if it goes badly you wasted a pick, that's all.
Acually the implications of a wasted pick are more than that. If you end up with an entire year of wasted picks, eventually you'll end up paying for it in the NHL with a bad team.

So whats worse? Not improving your NHL team, keeping your draft picks and having a bad season and than whiffing on the picks. Or you made moves to bring in players to help the NHL team who perform better on ice, but don't get the chance to whiff at the draft picks? In the case of this years Flames rather than whiff on the picks...they whiffed on trying to be a playoff team and will now pay the price.

Ideally you keep some picks hit on them and still have a good NHL team, but it doesn't always work that way.
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Old 05-10-2010, 03:41 PM   #127
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Originally Posted by afc wimbledon View Post
I'm not arguing a team should never make a trade, just pointing out that a trade has far more downside than a draft. When a draft goes well you get a young cheap player who will add to the team for a decade or so one way or another, if it goes badly you wasted a pick, that's all.
.
You can't simplify it like that. Each move, whether it is a draft or a trade should be evaluated on a case by case basis.

Some trades work out.
Some drafts work out.

You can't try to apply a general rule of the thumb.
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Old 05-10-2010, 03:48 PM   #128
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^^ I wouldn't argue with either of you, the point is more of a general one, a bad trade costs cap, a bad draft doesn't, therefore if you have to screw up it is better to screw up a draft than a trade, particularly with the increased availability of UFA's.

I don't think the reverse is so applicable, a good draft pick may not be better value then a good trade.

I grant you each situation is different, but over a number of trades or drafts the point will tend to apply.

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Old 05-10-2010, 03:54 PM   #129
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^^ I wouldn't argue with either of you, the point is more of a general one, a bad trade costs cap, a bad draft doesn't, therefore if you have to screw up it is better to screw up a draft than a trade.

I don't think the reverse is so applicable, a good draft pick may not be better value then a good trade.

Bad trade = cap wasted (kotalik)
bad draft = a player you hope makes your team never pans out (Chucko)

Right now Kotalik hurts us more but what if we could have gotten a solid player in a trade for hte Chucko pick? Good trade + Good draft = Good team.
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Old 05-10-2010, 04:31 PM   #130
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Originally Posted by Vinny01 View Post
Bad trade = cap wasted (kotalik)
bad draft = a player you hope makes your team never pans out (Chucko)

Right now Kotalik hurts us more but what if we could have gotten a solid player in a trade for hte Chucko pick? Good trade + Good draft = Good team.
Not necessarily. You could argue that we need Kotalik, because Chucko never developed. When a drafted player doesn't develop you have to trade for a different player or sign a free agent to fill that spot.

So it comes down to overall asset management again. Something, up until the Jokinen deal, Sutter was quite good at.
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Old 05-10-2010, 04:39 PM   #131
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Not necessarily. You could argue that we need Kotalik, because Chucko never developed. When a drafted player doesn't develop you have to trade for a different player or sign a free agent to fill that spot.

So it comes down to overall asset management again. Something, up until the Jokinen deal, Sutter was quite good at.
Yeah, and to that point...you could gamble of Kotalik getting back to being a 20 goal and 45 point guy the next two years....or give a player from this years UFA crop a 3 year contract for 3 million a year and hope he doesn't have a bad first year. The reason so many talk up Mikael Sameulsson is that it's rare a UFA signs somewhere and than lights it up that next year. More likely the UFA signing will Kotalik it that first year. Look at Radim Vrbata when the Lightning signed him last year...horrific. Traded back to Phoenix and it's pure gold.

Realistically...say Sutter can trade Sarich for a pick in the offseason, move Staios into the role that Sarich was filling. Setting up an extension for Giordano and opening up another blue line spot for the following year to be taken up by a prospect. Kotalik is able to get back to being a 20 goal guy. Are things that bad? I'm no fan of those two moves, but there still is a chance that something can be salvaged from them. I guess I'm still hopelessy optimistic that it may work out better than I'm willing to give it credit for.
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Old 05-10-2010, 04:44 PM   #132
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Not necessarily. You could argue that we need Kotalik, because Chucko never developed. When a drafted player doesn't develop you have to trade for a different player or sign a free agent to fill that spot.

So it comes down to overall asset management again. Something, up until the Jokinen deal, Sutter was quite good at.

That is the point I am making. For every bad trade there are bad picks.

AFC is saying a bad pick is better than a bad contract. I think they could be equally detrimental.
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Old 05-10-2010, 05:19 PM   #133
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That is the point I am making. For every bad trade there are bad picks.

AFC is saying a bad pick is better than a bad contract. I think they could be equally detrimental.
Yeah, they can be... in the sense that if you don't pick well often enough, you end up having to rely on the free agent market where teams always have to hand out big contracts that are likely to end up looking bad at some point.
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Old 05-10-2010, 05:59 PM   #134
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Realistically...say Sutter can trade Sarich for a pick in the offseason, move Staios into the role that Sarich was filling. Setting up an extension for Giordano and opening up another blue line spot for the following year to be taken up by a prospect. Kotalik is able to get back to being a 20 goal guy. Are things that bad? I'm no fan of those two moves, but there still is a chance that something can be salvaged from them. I guess I'm still hopelessy optimistic that it may work out better than I'm willing to give it credit for.
This is exactly what I think should happen as well.

I actually like the Staois deal. I think it provides stability in the bottom set and hopefully we can use him as a mentor for a prospect that is ready to step up.

Many of the Flames defensive prospects are at that stage where they need the NHL time to develop.

As for Kotalik, if he gets 20 goals next year (and assuming at least 45 points to go with it), I will be overwhelmed with joy.
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Old 05-10-2010, 06:03 PM   #135
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Yeah, they can be... in the sense that if you don't pick well often enough, you end up having to rely on the free agent market where teams always have to hand out big contracts that are likely to end up looking bad at some point.
I think if a team always traded or drafted badly they would obviously be screwed, I was more commenting on the general principal that a team will have some good trades, some bad and ditto with the drafts but at the end of the day I suspect in a capped league the bad trades do more damage than the bad drafts.
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Old 05-10-2010, 06:05 PM   #136
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Sorry but i cant believe anyone can say the flames drafting has been below average since the 2006 draft
if you break it down pick by pick

2006
Irving- He's a goalie so hard to judge so we will reserve judgment
Armstrong- Marginal pick has shown flashes but has been injured need to put it all together
Marvin- Reserve Judgment im guessing wont turn out but he did have some risk involved with him but a high reward. if he should make it look for a big first year pro or he could be done fast.
Carpentier- below average pick but could be a late bloomer based on some flashes he showed in the ahl
Pusstinen- Godd pick for a fifth rounder just wasnt intrested in playing pro in NA i take it
Fulton- Good defensive forward not expected to make a big splash in pro hockey but you dont know. Above average pick in the 6th round
DiDiomete- Not signed is a pest/fighter other guys in the sytem that can do a better job
Per Johnson- A bloodline pick never really developed but most 7th rounders dont

2006 draft B-

2007 Draft
Backlund- Great pick. best player available. good development
Negrin- Good pick definatley has a future in the organization
Aullie- Traded but definatley showed upside
Renaud- R.I.P. great player for a fifth rounder. seemed ready to be a borderline nhl player
C.J. Severyn- Not great but definatley isnt as big of failure of a pick as other 7th rounders

2007 Draft A

2008 Draft
Nemisz- Good pick. will make it. has a high upside but can also not reach his potential but still be an effective defensive forward.
Wahl- Great pick. Has shown great promise in th wHL and AHL this year
Bouma- Grit and determination will be a pleasure to see in a flames uniform as long as he can adjust to the speed of the pro game.
Nick Larson- Not a very good pick but isnt bad defensively
TJ Brodie- Great pick great offensive d-man
Grantham- Could have a future as a scrapper
Deilert- Good pick has shown some offensive talent in the sweedish 2nd league. needs to find that offense in the SEL

2008 Draft B+

2009 Draft
to early to judge but everyone looks good but bennett just never liked that pick
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Old 05-10-2010, 06:38 PM   #137
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This is exactly what I think should happen as well.

I actually like the Staois deal. I think it provides stability in the bottom set and hopefully we can use him as a mentor for a prospect that is ready to step up.

Many of the Flames defensive prospects are at that stage where they need the NHL time to develop.

As for Kotalik, if he gets 20 goals next year (and assuming at least 45 points to go with it), I will be overwhelmed with joy.
I also like the -28 that game along with that...

I would say D.Sutter was a genious if Kotalik has 20 goals next season... very unlikely though...
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Old 05-10-2010, 08:53 PM   #138
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Sorry but i cant believe anyone can say the flames drafting has been below average since the 2006 draft
if you break it down pick by pick

2006
Irving- He's a goalie so hard to judge so we will reserve judgment
Armstrong- Marginal pick has shown flashes but has been injured need to put it all together
Marvin- Reserve Judgment im guessing wont turn out but he did have some risk involved with him but a high reward. if he should make it look for a big first year pro or he could be done fast.
Carpentier- below average pick but could be a late bloomer based on some flashes he showed in the ahl
Pusstinen- Godd pick for a fifth rounder just wasnt intrested in playing pro in NA i take it
Fulton- Good defensive forward not expected to make a big splash in pro hockey but you dont know. Above average pick in the 6th round
DiDiomete- Not signed is a pest/fighter other guys in the sytem that can do a better job
Per Johnson- A bloodline pick never really developed but most 7th rounders dont

2006 draft B-

2007 Draft
Backlund- Great pick. best player available. good development
Negrin- Good pick definatley has a future in the organization
Aullie- Traded but definatley showed upside
Renaud- R.I.P. great player for a fifth rounder. seemed ready to be a borderline nhl player
C.J. Severyn- Not great but definatley isnt as big of failure of a pick as other 7th rounders

2007 Draft A

2008 Draft
Nemisz- Good pick. will make it. has a high upside but can also not reach his potential but still be an effective defensive forward.
Wahl- Great pick. Has shown great promise in th wHL and AHL this year
Bouma- Grit and determination will be a pleasure to see in a flames uniform as long as he can adjust to the speed of the pro game.
Nick Larson- Not a very good pick but isnt bad defensively
TJ Brodie- Great pick great offensive d-man
Grantham- Could have a future as a scrapper
Deilert- Good pick has shown some offensive talent in the sweedish 2nd league. needs to find that offense in the SEL

2008 Draft B+

2009 Draft
to early to judge but everyone looks good but bennett just never liked that pick
Seriously?

its one thing to say its a bit early to tell (though watching the number of young players currently doing well in the playoffs tells you something), I'd hardly call one player a success...or that draft an "A" at this point.

someone from 2006 draft year should be have some impact by next year you'd hope, or you might want to think about your evaluation.
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Old 05-10-2010, 09:03 PM   #139
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weill i will ponder a guess that everyone from the 2007 draft except for seveyrn will play more nhl games than the average player picked in their round
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Old 05-10-2010, 09:18 PM   #140
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weill i will ponder a guess that everyone from the 2007 draft except for seveyrn will play more nhl games than the average player picked in their round
i respect your optimism - Backlund for sure looks promising, as he has already seen time in the big leagues...as for the others, we can only wait and cross our fingers...

I know others disagree with this, but I think that once a kid hits 24, if he hasn't seen time in the NHL, the chances that they will diminish significantly.
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