The Matthew Tkachuk contract negotiations

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

A truly desperate GM overpaid up north, and a very green one who apparently got a job based on his history with analytics more so than based on his NHL network and skill at negotiations.

Point is that an RFA has one (1) team to negotiate with, and zero (0) other ways to play in the NHL for several years.

Any GM that overpaid is, in my opinion, a dumbass. Tre appears to be a savvy negotiator and not a dumbass.

Your position on the negotiation limitations of an RFA player are all nice in theory, and really do hold water when you’re talking about middle of the road guys, but young top level talent gets paid regardless of their RFA status.

It’s not just one or two players. RFA stars have been getting star-quality contracts for years. Look at the big contracts of McDavid, Matthews, and Eichel. Big, right? Fair? Probably. Overpaid? Not when you consider they all could have and would have gotten more as a UFA.

RFAs get paid, if they’ve earned it. Tkachuk earned it.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

No, it isn't.

Tkachuk: 174 pts in 224 GP
Nylander: 162 pts in 239 GP

Like, don't get me wrong. I'd rather have Tkachuk. But how much more are those extra 12 pts in 15 games over three seasons worth to you? We're not talking about a Gaudreau vs Byron level gap here.

Tkachuk is not an $8M player - if he is, it's immediately the worst non-UFA contract Treliving has signed.

That’s 12 more points in 15 LESS games LOL.


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[transplant99]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

No, it isn't.

Tkachuk: 174 pts in 224 GP
Nylander: 162 pts in 239 GP

Like, don't get me wrong. I'd rather have Tkachuk. But how much more are those extra 12 pts in 15 games over three seasons worth to you? We're not talking about a Gaudreau vs Byron level gap here.

Tkachuk is not an $8M player - if he is, it's immediately the worst non-UFA contract Treliving has signed.

Jesus christ do i think you are going to be one disappointed fan.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

Your position on the negotiation limitations of an RFA player are all nice in theory, and really do hold water when you’re talking about middle of the road guys, but young top level talent gets paid regardless of their RFA status.

It’s not just one or two players. RFA stars have been getting star-quality contracts for years. Look at the big contracts of McDavid, Matthews, and Eichel. Big, right? Fair? Probably. Overpaid? Not when you consider they all could have and would have gotten more as a UFA.

RFAs get paid, if they’ve earned it. Tkachuk earned it.

The guys you list are the best players on their team at signing and face of the franchise types. Also you could argue they were signed by teams desperate to sign that face of the franchise, in the ugly early parts of the rebuilds

Tkachuk is among the top, what, 5 Flames players?

Definitely not the same productivity post ASG and playoffs.

We will see. I expect Brad does a good job.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Fine but saying guy X is better so you can't pay so and so more than him is just dumb.

Gaudreau is a double digit millions cap hit if he were up for a contract

Gaudreau would get $10M+ because he's the best forward on the team.

Tkachuk isn't the best winger on the team, and he doesn't play centre. He doesn't run the powerplay, nor is he the trigger man. Yes, I understand he's brilliant at being in front of the net - so were Darcy Tucker and Ryan Smyth.

If his agent goes full Ari Gold, I can see him getting $7.5. And that's handing Tre his lunch.

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

That’s 12 more points in 15 LESS games LOL.


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Is that worth an additional $1.1million?

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by kyuss275

Nylander has a $6.9 million cap and is a one dimensional player. You already said that Tkachuk wont get $7million. Do you really think that Tkachuk comes in at $6.95million?

This is the part that confuses me. I like Tkachuk more than Nylander, but he isn’t really more multi dimensional than Nylander.

Nylander is more talented offensively. Don’t need to get into skating again but that part is obvious too. Nylander also played C a ton this season, and does back check and make defensive plays.

Does Tkachuk really make defensive plays???? Nylander is no Backlund, but he isn’t 05 Ovechkin either. I’d say he’s more 2 way than Tkachuk is.

And both of them can vanish for long stretches for seemingly no reason.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

The guys you list are the best players on their team at signing and face of the franchise types. Also you could argue they were signed by teams desperate to sign that face of the franchise, in the ugly early parts of the rebuilds

Tkachuk is among the top, what, 5 Flames players?

Definitely not the same productivity post ASG and playoffs.

We will see. I expect Brad does a good job.

I think we all expect Brad does a good job.

Some people just shouldn’t be upset when the contract is signed because they confused their own low predictions with the threshold of what constitutes Treliving doing a “good job.”

You can spin it however you want. The guys I listed are the best players on their team, true. Then there’s Draisatl and Nylander, and fellow RFAs like Marner and Point who will also be getting paid.

The way Tkachuk plays and his lack of reliance on power plays to boost his stats puts him in the upper echelon of this contract class. Tkachuk is one of Calgary’s top 3 players, and arguably their best all-around player.

Yeah, a drop off after ASG. But he was also the leading goal scorer on the Flames post-ASG. The entire team faultered. He was still the best of em.

[transplant99]

People here are falling into that trap of trying to devalue their own player because they want him signed at a great price for the good of the team.

Sure some of the UFA guys or about to be UFA guys will take less to stay where they are if they believe that team is close, or their family really doesn't want to move or their house they are building is almost done...whatever the reason.

Matthew Tkachuk is 21 years old. He doesnt have those kind of pressures/restraints on him. Of course he may very well absolutely love playing in Calgary and doesnt want to leave. He also is about to make a major life altering financial decision. He isnt going to accept less...just because. Whether you think Draisaitl or Nylander or Matthews or any of the other high profile RFA's are worth what they are getting is irrelevant. Those are the contracts that Don Meehan and crew will be using as a starting point in negotiations.

Tkachuk measures up to all of them to varying degrees. Expecting him to leave 1, 2 or 3 million dollars A YEAR on the table is pure folly. He has earned what he will get by way of his play and his potential moving forward. Guys in this league get paid, for the large part, on production. He has been very productive. They also get paid on intangibles. He has those in spades as well. It's the way the league works now.

If all that applies to MT, (why wouldnt it?) then expecting him to agree to something in the 7M area seems preposterous.

Everyone would love to see the young man sign for 8 years at 6 million per...but that is fantasy at best and moreso delusion.

I would be stunned if he comes in at anything less than 8+ on a deal of 5 or more years. Again, why would he when there are recedents all over the league that should see him earning more?

If he signs a 3 year deal, then OK we could see him at 6.5 or something but that then really risks what he costs beyond those 3 years. That could easily cost the club 2 million per year on the next contract.

21 years old, one of the best players on the team already with room to grow...you dont lowball those guys. You pay them.

I see a 6 year deal at 8.5ish as a landing spot the more I look at it.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by transplant99

I see a 6 year deal at 8.5ish as a landing spot the more I look at it.

I'm hoping we end up finding a team-friendly 8 year deal at 9-9.5M, but given the market on the contracts, I think you're likely more in line with what will happen.

Top-end players should be getting paid while they're in their primes.

[DeluxeMoustache]

^ You are hoping the Flames put him at 9.5? That is top 10 in the NHL.

He is not top 10 in the league, and he is a frickin’ RFA

Geez, I hope Tre isn’t that crappy of a GM.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

^ You are hoping the Flames put him at 9.5? That is top 10 in the NHL.

He is not top 10 in the league, and he is a frickin’ RFA

Geez, I hope Tre isn’t that crappy of a GM.

I'm not advocating 9.5, though i have little doubt that would be the price for an 8 year deal.

But, you have to quit looking at it that way.

It isn't about where it puts him among players THIS year, its what that value would be in 4 or 5 years and beyond. In that scenario it likely puts him somewhere around 25 or 30 in the league assuming the cap increases which has never not happened.

Is he among the top 25 or 30 in the game in a few years? I think its very likely he will ascend to that level of player. If that's the case then you pay him now for his productive years. That's just the game these days.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by transplant99

People here are falling into that trap of trying to devalue their own player because they want him signed at a great price for the good of the team.

Sure some of the UFA guys or about to be UFA guys will take less to stay where they are if they believe that team is close, or their family really doesn't want to move or their house they are building is almost done...whatever the reason.

Matthew Tkachuk is 21 years old. He doesnt have those kind of pressures/restraints on him. Of course he may very well absolutely love playing in Calgary and doesnt want to leave. He also is about to make a major life altering financial decision. He isnt going to accept less...just because. Whether you think Draisaitl or Nylander or Matthews or any of the other high profile RFA's are worth what they are getting is irrelevant. Those are the contracts that Don Meehan and crew will be using as a starting point in negotiations.

Tkachuk measures up to all of them to varying degrees. Expecting him to leave 1, 2 or 3 million dollars A YEAR on the table is pure folly. He has earned what he will get by way of his play and his potential moving forward. Guys in this league get paid, for the large part, on production. He has been very productive. They also get paid on intangibles. He has those in spades as well. It's the way the league works now.

If all that applies to MT, (why wouldnt it?) then expecting him to agree to something in the 7M area seems preposterous.

Everyone would love to see the young man sign for 8 years at 6 million per...but that is fantasy at best and moreso delusion.

I would be stunned if he comes in at anything less than 8+ on a deal of 5 or more years. Again, why would he when there are recedents all over the league that should see him earning more?

If he signs a 3 year deal, then OK we could see him at 6.5 or something but that then really risks what he costs beyond those 3 years. That could easily cost the club 2 million per year on the next contract.

21 years old, one of the best players on the team already with room to grow...you dont lowball those guys. You pay them.

I see a 6 year deal at 8.5ish as a landing spot the more I look at it.

The point of landing on the right number is also dependent on him being a RFA , and ‘settling’ is not ‘just because’

What does he do if the Flames do not meet his demands? Go to Europe or take zero until he is willing to agree

Let’s say this hypothetically unfolds:
Matthew wants 10 or whatever you guys think he is worth for 8 years.
The Flames say he is nuts, because that is a huge ask for a guy who scored one goal in February, and was invisible as they tucked tail and handed Colorado an easy series win (yes, it gets ugly. Why wouldn’t it? It’s just business, after all)
The Flames don’t want to buy a bunch of UFA years, so the conversation turns towards a 5 year term
Matthew concedes, but really wants 8. That’s what he will settle for but he wants it so much that he will hold out for it
Let’s say the Flames are then saying we will sign you today for 7 and not a penny more.
Tkachuk holds out
December deadline day arrives.
Flames stay put

Here are Tkachuk’s options:
Hold out and not play. Take zero in year 1, then get his 8 for the remaining 4 years
Suck it up and take 7 for 5 years

He can’t negotiate with anyone else. At least not any other team in the NHL.

What does he do?

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

^ You are hoping the Flames put him at 9.5? That is top 10 in the NHL.

He is not top 10 in the league, and he is a frickin’ RFA

Geez, I hope Tre isn’t that crappy of a GM.

I’m not sure how else this can be explained. “Top 10 in the league” isn’t relevant. The cap goes up, contracts go up. This is how it works. Crosby is the best player in the NHL. How many lesser players now make more than him? Why is that? Is it because they are better or the GMs are worse? Is Crosby not even a top 10 player in the league because he doesn’t have a top 10 salary?

Pull your head out of your bum.

As a percentage, 9.5 is 11.4% of the cap. This is not an unreasonable contract number for a top player, and Tkachuk is a top player. It’s time to stop holding on to RFA status like it’s a safety net for GMs. Thanks to some bad moves, that bunny is out of the box. It’s not going back in. The league moves forwards, not backwards. Best to set your expectations accordingly.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

The point of landing on the right number is also dependent on him being a RFA , and ‘settling’ is not ‘just because’

What does he do if the Flames do not meet his demands? Go to Europe or take zero until he is willing to agree

Let’s say this hypothetically unfolds:
Matthew wants 10 or whatever you guys think he is worth for 8 years.
The Flames say he is nuts, because that is a huge ask for a guy who scored one goal in February, and was invisible as they tucked tail and handed Colorado an easy series win (yes, it gets ugly. Why wouldn’t it? It’s just business, after all)
The Flames don’t want to buy a bunch of UFA years, so the conversation turns towards a 5 year term
Matthew concedes, but really wants 8. That’s what he will settle for but he wants it so much that he will hold out for it
Let’s say the Flames are then saying we will sign you today for 7 and not a penny more.
Tkachuk holds out
December deadline day arrives.
Flames stay put

Here are Tkachuk’s options:
Hold out and not play. Take zero in year 1, then get his 8 for the remaining 4 years
Suck it up and take 7 for 5 years

He can’t negotiate with anyone else. At least not any other team in the NHL.

What does he do?

Hypothetically, he sits out or demands a trade prior, and the Flames lose the asset for pennies on the dollar.

Great work hypothetical Brad, your weird hypothetical negotiation tactic with your top goal scorer from Feb-April paid off.

(But seriously, it’d be nice if the RFA power dynamic was as one sided as you seem to think it is, but... alas, the real world and all)

[SportsJunky]

For what it’s worth, Evolving Hockey’s spreadsheet has Tkachuk at 6-8 years at 8-8.3M

[SportsJunky]

I would not be surprised if we see a player holdout if he doesn’t get what he thinks he’s worth. I hope they can find some middle ground.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

The point of landing on the right number is also dependent on him being a RFA , and ‘settling’ is not ‘just because’

What does he do if the Flames do not meet his demands? Go to Europe or take zero until he is willing to agree

Let’s say this hypothetically unfolds:
Matthew wants 10 or whatever you guys think he is worth for 8 years.
The Flames say he is nuts, because that is a huge ask for a guy who scored one goal in February, and was invisible as they tucked tail and handed Colorado an easy series win (yes, it gets ugly. Why wouldn’t it? It’s just business, after all)
The Flames don’t want to buy a bunch of UFA years, so the conversation turns towards a 5 year term
Matthew concedes, but really wants 8. That’s what he will settle for but he wants it so much that he will hold out for it
Let’s say the Flames are then saying we will sign you today for 7 and not a penny more.
Tkachuk holds out
December deadline day arrives.
Flames stay put

Here are Tkachuk’s options:
Hold out and not play. Take zero in year 1, then get his 8 for the remaining 4 years
Suck it up and take 7 for 5 years

He can’t negotiate with anyone else. At least not any other team in the NHL.

What does he do?

He holds out, players do it all the time.

Better question, what do the Flames do? They aren't likely winning any cups with him sitting in the stands.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

The point of landing on the right number is also dependent on him being a RFA , and ‘settling’ is not ‘just because’

What does he do if the Flames do not meet his demands? Go to Europe or take zero until he is willing to agree

Let’s say this hypothetically unfolds:
Matthew wants 10 or whatever you guys think he is worth for 8 years.
The Flames say he is nuts, because that is a huge ask for a guy who scored one goal in February, and was invisible as they tucked tail and handed Colorado an easy series win (yes, it gets ugly. Why wouldn’t it? It’s just business, after all)
The Flames don’t want to buy a bunch of UFA years, so the conversation turns towards a 5 year term
Matthew concedes, but really wants 8. That’s what he will settle for but he wants it so much that he will hold out for it
Let’s say the Flames are then saying we will sign you today for 7 and not a penny more.
Tkachuk holds out
December deadline day arrives.
Flames stay put

Here are Tkachuk’s options:
Hold out and not play. Take zero in year 1, then get his 8 for the remaining 4 years
Suck it up and take 7 for 5 years

He can’t negotiate with anyone else. At least not any other team in the NHL.

What does he do?

Again you are missing the point.

It doesnt matter what I or anyone else "thinks he is worth".

The precedence has been set. Thats how contract negotiations work in the NHL now. Don Meehan is the best agent in the business...not because he gets his guys every last dollar but because he gets them a fair price and keeps both the player and the teams he deals with happy.

So now you have to look around at players of his age, experience, production, intangibles, who are/were RFA etc and see ...what is fair?

Do that and you can come to a number....but that number sure as hell isnt 6.9 a year nor is it 10M a year. Definately somewhere in the middle however....and guess whats in the middle?

8.5M per year

Now you have to figure out term. Well you arent going 4 as that takes him to UFA. He isnt going to 8 as he gives up years of UFA. So you land somewhere between 5-7 and guess whats in the middle?

6.

So 8.5M X 6 years is where, using all the tools available, we land with this guy....in a fair and palatable spot for both sides.

Oh and going hardball holdout/no signing is not good for either side. Make him sit out? How does that advance your team going forward? What did it do for the Leafs and Nylander? What does it say to other players and agents?

If you, personally, don't see MT as being a premier forward in the game moving forward, then yes i understand your position.

If you see him, as i believe the club sees him, as a guy that is on an ascension to among the best in the business, then without question you pay him fair market and get a couple years of UFA while you are at it....everyone is happy.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

Hypothetically, he sits out or demands a trade prior, and the Flames lose the asset for pennies on the dollar.

Great work hypothetical Brad, your weird hypothetical negotiation tactic with your top goal scorer from Feb-April paid off.

(But seriously, it’d be nice if the RFA power dynamic was as one sided as you seem to think it is, but... alas, the real world and all)

Thanks. Your equally weird, I suppose, appreciation of that one (1) goal in the entire month of February is also great work. That goal was a beauty.

The guy had a 3 game stretch with 6 goals, including 2 very productive games, Vegas and NYR, where he got 5.

There are what, about 30 games after the all star break?

Just because the other top players crapped the bed doesn’t entitle Tkachuk to be paid like them. That’s weird, too, man. Derek Ryan was a better player than Tkachuk post all star break.

I’m not saying the power dynamic is totally one sided, but that’s the whole point of how RFA status can close the gap. At some point, the ‘R’ means you have limitations on the leverage.

All of the other situations with top dollar contracts that people mention, it is desperate GMs like Chiarelli who has to put *something* on the ice , same in Buffalo, and Toronto is nuts and Dubas is green.

It’s obvious to me. You don’t back up the truck to a RFA. Yes, you pay him fairly, but you don’t over pay beyond what is necessary