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Old 05-18-2020, 09:49 PM   #41
Frequitude
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Can anyone who knows more help me understand why the pilot didn’t try the 180 to the right over the water instead of left over the city? It seems like the runway heads right out over the Thompson. Or why they didn’t just climb and ditch into the river? Was he trying to save the plane with the 180 to the airport and left got into a more favourable landing direction and headwind onto that smaller runway or something?

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Old 05-18-2020, 10:31 PM   #42
FLAME ENVY
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^ Your post is bang on except for the low time airframe. Most of them were hitting 10000 hrs when I worked on them 20 years ago. They kept the ones with the lowest fatigue for the team but they really are getting up there. That said they haven't had any incidents related to fatigue. Parts are getting hard to source. The avionics upgrade helps, and the engines are still maintainable.

They've toyed with the idea of an engine upgrade for several years, but that requires a long term commitment, same with a 0/0 seat which would be nice if you could fit it.
Thanks for clarifying. I had assumed that 431's jets were still fairly low time airframes based on their modest cycle levels. I know most of the CT-114 fleet were cycled out at 2CFFTS.
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Old 05-18-2020, 11:01 PM   #43
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Thanks for clarifying. I had assumed that 431's jets were still fairly low time airframes based on their modest cycle levels. I know most of the CT-114 fleet were cycled out at 2CFFTS.
Most of the fleet had been through the squadron by the time they were mothballed. Fun fact, if you see a tutor that is shiny aluminum it has never been on squadron, if it is painted grey it was a snowbird at one time.
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Old 05-18-2020, 11:14 PM   #44
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Not at that altitude, the plane was going way to slow and low to get into a forced landing profile, (rest is my opinion only) he zoomed hoping to gain enough altitude to eject safely, bleeding airspeed, at the top his speed was too low to maintain control, the plane rolled and he fought to get wings level for ejection. I would bet that in the zoom he was telling his pax to prepare to abandon.

Time from the pop to ejection was 18 sec, felt like half that watching the video.
Possibly, but if he had control I have a problem with why he would pull up so steeply to cause a dead stick stall? surely a trained air force pilot would have just veered slightly right towards the visible thompson river and either ejected strait up or tried to land in the river.

Personally, I'll stick to the "he had no control" after the engine blew until he says otherwise.
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Old 05-19-2020, 10:51 AM   #45
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To that I would suggest that he was on the left side of lead and his out was to the left. once he zoomed he had no visibility on lead and ditching in that direction would have endangered the other aircraft.

We are talking seconds so you only have time to make one decision. The escape routes are briefed before take off. When you fly formation you don't change on the fly.
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Old 05-19-2020, 01:54 PM   #46
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To that I would suggest that he was on the left side of lead and his out was to the left. once he zoomed he had no visibility on lead and ditching in that direction would have endangered the other aircraft.

We are talking seconds so you only have time to make one decision. The escape routes are briefed before take off. When you fly formation you don't change on the fly.
He lost his engine, in 1 second the other aircraft was so far ahead it would be impossible to hit it. The pilot's alive, we'll find out soon enough what happened.
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Old 05-19-2020, 05:38 PM   #47
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He lost his engine, in 1 second the other aircraft was so far ahead it would be impossible to hit it.
Itís not that simple. Capt. MacDougall had seconds to make a decision in an extremely dire situation that would have handcuffed most. He clearly did his best.

It appears the aircraft lost power shortly after departure, pilot made a decision to pull up and convert what energy he had into altitude in hopes of either making it back to the airport or to a point where he could safely level off, place the aircraft where it would not impact anyone on the ground and punch out. He hung on as long as he could hoping for a better outcome, the aircraft was recovered from an incipient spin prior to ejection which supports that theory. This is all my speculative opinion of course.
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Old 05-20-2020, 12:52 AM   #48
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Itís not that simple. Capt. MacDougall had seconds to make a decision in an extremely dire situation that would have handcuffed most. He clearly did his best.

It appears the aircraft lost power shortly after departure, pilot made a decision to pull up and convert what energy he had into altitude in hopes of either making it back to the airport or to a point where he could safely level off, place the aircraft where it would not impact anyone on the ground and punch out. He hung on as long as he could hoping for a better outcome, the aircraft was recovered from an incipient spin prior to ejection which supports that theory. This is all my speculative opinion of course.
I haven't gone thru military jet training but I can tell you in civilian flight training they don't train you to pull up 60 degree's over population when you loose your engine, that move is a 100% catastrophic stall in an aircraft with small wing and tail surfaces for it's weight. When the engine blew the thompson river would have been just to his right or possibly straight ahead and under him, he was going fast enough to do a level wing slight climb to slow a little to either safely eject or possibly try a water landing. I personally would eject once I knew the aircraft was away from population.

I'm sticking to my thoughts he had very little to no control.

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Old 05-20-2020, 03:45 AM   #49
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I'm curious how the occupants of the home are doing. I haven't been able to find much
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Old 05-20-2020, 06:19 AM   #50
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There is no indication he had control issues.

I do wonder why they didn’t eject near the apex of the climb. My understanding of training in the Tutor with an engine failure on takeoff is to zoom climb to get altitude, eject, and do not worry about where the plane is going to end up, as it takes time you likely don’t have. I wonder if he thought he might be able to get back to the airport (an understandable, yet incorrect action) but obviously wasn’t able to make it.

But of course it is easy to think about it after the fact and dissect it, when a person is faced with a critical and grave situation with seconds to react, it is an extremely challenging event.
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Old 05-20-2020, 07:25 AM   #51
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I do wonder why they didn’t eject near the apex of the climb.
I believe the min speed for ejection is 60 knots with that ejection seat.

A former CO of the Snowbirds offers his comments/speculation in the latest Fighter Pilot podcast.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xl7q...ature=youtu.be
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Old 05-20-2020, 09:08 AM   #52
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I'm curious how the occupants of the home are doing. I haven't been able to find much
AFAIK, they were not injured. It didn't land directly on the house.
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Old 05-20-2020, 09:59 AM   #53
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Originally Posted by Baron von Kriterium View Post
I believe the min speed for ejection is 60 knots with that ejection seat.

A former CO of the Snowbirds offers his comments/speculation in the latest Fighter Pilot podcast.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xl7q...ature=youtu.be
Yes, thatís what I understand as well. It wouldnít have precluded ejecting towards the top of the zoom climb. Why they didnít and what happened from the controlled climb to the rolling descent will be interesting to find out.
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Old 05-21-2020, 06:30 PM   #54
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Captain MacDougall's brother (who has obviously been in contact with his brother) has been active today and is confirming that they did indeed suffer a birdstrike/ingestion incident during the take off.

From further investigating, I've found that "Rich" is a relative "newbie" in terms of CT-114 seat time. He was certainly well trained/briefed in regards to loss of power at takeoff scenarios and he followed the mandated procedure to separate and gain altitude.

My speculative guess is that as he reached the apex of the zoom, he realized that punching out on their current azimuth was going to send his aircraft towards a residential area,
Whether diverting to the left (or calling for the lead to break right) is the fundamental question/decision here, and I'm sure this will be addressed in the DFSO report.
As it (quickly) evolved, he (again speculation) decided to attempt a reciprocal reversal to recover to the airfield. This went very pear-shaped and the aircraft stalled, entering into an uncommanded incipient spin condition.
To his credit, Captain MacDougall recovered the aircraft from the spin and the ejection sequence begins when they are wings level.
Second guessing matters like this are always going to problematical
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Old 05-21-2020, 09:08 PM   #55
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OGS3...HbgeOjb55tujnI
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Old 05-21-2020, 09:36 PM   #56
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Wow first I heard of a possible bird strike. We'll find out soon enough.
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Old 06-01-2020, 09:59 AM   #57
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Looking into the possibility of a bird strike into the engine:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/sno...port-1.5593259
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