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Old 11-13-2018, 10:05 AM   #1
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Default The Goalie Battle

Darren Haynes posted an article on The Athletic that opens the door for a fresh palette to talk about our goalie woes, as he has great analysis to work from. We've heard everything from trading Smith to giving him time to find his game, but in either case it's become quite clear that winning is more difficult with Smith in net right now. He did put a bit more rope in front of him in SJ, so the timing is a bit unfair - but we can only hope that is a turning point right now as we can't assume yet that his poor start is behind him.

The article is here for everyone who has access:
https://theathletic.com/649635/2018/...ichs-workload/

Darren re-watched every goal this season and rated the goals based on difficulty, while factoring in the impact that goal had on the game. I won't post the conclusion stats and spoil the article, but it unsurprisingly didn't look good for Smith. We knew Rittich was playing better than Smith but having a goal-by-goal breakdown that factors in how backbreaking Smith 'finding his game' has been is pretty telling that it's time to start Rittich if we want to win games. I think we all felt this watching the games, but it's interesting to see a listed breakdown of what impact their performance has had in games this year.

Peters is a smart guy, so hopefully the 2nd and 3rd in SJ don't cloud his memory of how that game was lost in the first place. It'll be interesting to see on Thursday (what a schedule...) who gets Montreal and who sees Edmonton on Saturday. I don't think they'd be ready to start Rittich both games - but I am worried that they are still thinking Smith gets both the way this has been trending.

What do we think the chances are that Smith is out of rope and Rittich gets both starts? We play the Golden Nights Friday, which would be a great place for Smith to start again - but that would mean anointing your young goalie the more critical starts to try and win those games. Everything Peters has shown with the skaters tells me he's not afraid to do it, you just have to wonder when.
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Old 11-13-2018, 10:09 AM   #2
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If Rittich has done anything in his brief NHL career, its play pretty darn good against Montreal. I know Smith had a very good game in San Jose, but I'd go to Rittich on Thursday and the info in that article only re-enforces how I feel.

Really, I look at the upcoming schedule and I would almost try a Rittich/Smith/Rittich/Smith approach
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Old 11-13-2018, 10:17 AM   #3
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I easily make the decision to play Rittich on Thursday, if he gets the win and plays well, he gets the game on Saturday. I am done with giving Smith the chances to get his game back. Those days have to end soon I hope. If Rittich craps the bed on Thursday, then go to Smith on Saturday and hope he doesn't embarrass himself and the team on home ice against Edmonton.
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Old 11-13-2018, 10:17 AM   #4
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Play David Rittich until he loses, then give Mike Smith a chance until he loses...rinse, repeat.
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Old 11-13-2018, 10:19 AM   #5
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Originally Posted by Toonage View Post
If Rittich has done anything in his brief NHL career, its play pretty darn good against Montreal. I know Smith had a very good game in San Jose, but I'd go to Rittich on Thursday and the info in that article only re-enforces how I feel.

Really, I look at the upcoming schedule and I would almost try a Rittich/Smith/Rittich/Smith approach
I hope they go to Rittich on Thursday too, but I'm also staring at that Edmonton game on Saturday.

A great game against Edmonton should put a lot of confidence in the bank, but getting spanked at home in the BOA could be a game we remember down the line. Depending on how much faith we have in 2/3-in-SJ Smith, a loss to Edmonton could hurt a lot more than Montreal or Vegas.
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Old 11-13-2018, 10:22 AM   #6
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^ Yeah I know what you mean. And with the Flames sitting at 2-3 against the Pacific they need to start banking those points. Give Rittich the start against Montreal, and if he shows well, even in a close loss, go back to him for Edmonton. If one thing has been consistent its that even in his better efforts (shut out excluded obviously) Smith lets in one bad early one or one bad late one. Can't risk that against what will no doubt be a fired up Edmonton team.

Also, they can't let Gully come back here and leave with a win. No way.
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Old 11-13-2018, 10:28 AM   #7
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Originally Posted by Brick View Post
Play David Rittich until he loses, then give Mike Smith a chance until he loses...rinse, repeat.
The one issue I have with that 'play until you fail' is confidence. I think Calgary needs to find a 1A/1B situation until they have a true #1, and that relies on both goalies being engaged. Smith could turn up his nose to the whole 1B situation, but if he looks in the mirror he will realize that his younger days are all that's offering him that opportunity in the first place.

As an example:
MTL: Rittich
EDM: Rittich
VGK: Smith
WPG: Rittich
VGK: Smith
Would put Smith as a good 1B situation to build games and confidence against the Golden Knights, while we have the better chance in net in the games we'll rely on our 'tender the most. Plus, with Arizona, Dallas, Chicago, and Columbus coming up we would see Smith regain a bit more starts - unless he craps the bed against Vegas.

IMO, that gives this season an opportunity to have a goalie battle or a clear #1 emerge from this mess they started the season with. We could have a positive situation to talk about as early as December if they start tackling this as a duo. It all really relies on trusting Rittich in the bigger games and Smith buying into an opportunity to claw back starts with solid play against the weaker teams.
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Old 11-13-2018, 10:34 AM   #8
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Rittich should absolutely get more starts than they originally planned. But you have to be very careful throwing him out there the way so many on this board are calling for. This is a goalie that hasn't played more than 48 games in a season in his professional career. Super risky to ride him into the ground, especially if you are expecting him to play in the playoffs. We saw just last year that Rittich was amazing until he wasn't. Not saying that he will definitely fall off, but playing him 50 games or more and then expecting him to handle a long playoff run is super risky. He could just falter at some point in the spring and leave you with nothing. It is just a complete gamble.

That is why, if Smith isn't going to be able to play at least half the games, they have to make a trade. This is also why they are going to give Smith more chances to succeed than fans want. They need a goalie to take a bulk of the workload, even if Rittich is the more relied upon goalie in terms of performance. I am sure they would rather that Smith get it together than have to spend assets to bring in someone, especially if it is not a clear upgrade but just a Smith replacement.
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Old 11-13-2018, 10:35 AM   #9
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^ Yeah I know what you mean. And with the Flames sitting at 2-3 against the Pacific they need to start banking those points. Give Rittich the start against Montreal, and if he shows well, even in a close loss, go back to him for Edmonton. If one thing has been consistent its that even in his better efforts (shut out excluded obviously) Smith lets in one bad early one or one bad late one. Can't risk that against what will no doubt be a fired up Edmonton team.

Also, they can't let Gully come back here and leave with a win. No way.
That's a game plan I'd love to see. Rittich (esp with the MTL record you point out) seems like the obvious start for Thurs, and a huge opportunity to earn that Saturday start should be out there for him.

I was glad Haynes looked at how early in games Smith has put the team behind too. I think it was Tkachuk that mentioned how they need to curb that, as starting every game on your heels has to be exhausting. It was interesting to see how often Smith put them in that position vs. Rittich as "Smith has given up a goal on one of the first six shots he’s faced in nine of his 12 starts" is pretty concerning.
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Old 11-13-2018, 10:36 AM   #10
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Play Rittich until he loses
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Old 11-13-2018, 10:44 AM   #11
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I would just like to note that the opening of that article is a beautifully articulate way of explaining what’s wrong with heavily only relying on analytics.
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Old 11-13-2018, 10:55 AM   #12
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Give 70% of the next 10-15 games or so to Rittich and see how he handles it
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Old 11-13-2018, 11:09 AM   #13
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Don't play Smith at home. He can't handle that pressure right now.
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Old 11-13-2018, 11:20 AM   #14
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What a great article
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Old 11-13-2018, 12:16 PM   #15
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Don't play Smith at home. He can't handle that pressure right now.
Smith has been awful in the Dome going back to last season. Not sure if it's the pressure or what but it can't be denied he's been better on the road. I think at the very least the majority of his starts should be on the road.

I think Peters/Treliving really want Smith to work because there's really not a lot of upgrade options mid-season and once they go to Rittich is may be permanent. Seeing it's only November they probably are going to give Smith as much rope as possible as long as they hold a playoff spot. If they slide out of the playoffs I would expect desperation to sit in and the kid gloves to be thrown in the trash.
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Old 11-13-2018, 12:51 PM   #16
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Smith has been awful in the Dome going back to last season. Not sure if it's the pressure or what but it can't be denied he's been better on the road. I think at the very least the majority of his starts should be on the road.
It's those horrible black and red pads!
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Old 11-13-2018, 01:01 PM   #17
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It's those horrible black and red pads!
Is that why goals are squeaking in under his arms?
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Old 11-13-2018, 01:05 PM   #18
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Smith will be the starter until we are behind the 8 ball playoff wise. Bill Peters, prove me wrong.
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Old 11-13-2018, 01:11 PM   #19
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Originally Posted by Erick Estrada View Post
Smith has been awful in the Dome going back to last season. Not sure if it's the pressure or what but it can't be denied he's been better on the road. I think at the very least the majority of his starts should be on the road.

I think Peters/Treliving really want Smith to work because there's really not a lot of upgrade options mid-season and once they go to Rittich is may be permanent. Seeing it's only November they probably are going to give Smith as much rope as possible as long as they hold a playoff spot. If they slide out of the playoffs I would expect desperation to sit in and the kid gloves to be thrown in the trash.
Rittich hasn't historically had a good home record either.
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Old 11-13-2018, 01:20 PM   #20
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Is that why goals are squeaking in under his arms?
Now that Haynes has broken it down (I don’t subscribe so did not read the Haynes breakdown), did he note this as an issue?

I haven’t noticed the upper gear being a notable issue with him. I do recall the SJ goal less than a minute in going glove side, a bad 5 hole goal against Anaheim, etc.
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