Prospect Ranking Supplementary Poll

[FlamesAddiction]

Hey, I thought this might be fun given that there is still a lot of time before NHL hockey comes back.

I set up a poll where individuals can rank prospects in their preferred order from best to worst. The results are averaged and you can get some slightly different information. I think it might give a better sense on the different tiers from a fan's perspective assuming the sample size is high enough.


http://www.polljunkie.com/poll/opzwi...-ranked-voting

You just click click and drag them into the order you like.

[FlamesAddiction]

I noticed after 6 submissions, Valimaki was ranked 1st five times, and someone ranked him 22nd. The same thing happened with Pelletier. He was ranked 2nd five times and then 17th by someone.

I am guessing someone is just being cheeky.

[1qqaaz]

I've already changed a lot of my opinions since the earlier rounds of the polls.

Valimaki, Kinnvall, Ryan Francis, and Chechelev have been looking good.
Francis in particular has the same production as Pelletier, in the same league, while also being almost a year younger.

[Sandman]

That was fun. Wish it lasted longer...

[Samonadreau]

^ thats what she said.



Sorry, I couldn't not on that one.

[Sandman]

Originally Posted by Samonadreau

^ thats what she said.



Sorry, I couldn't not on that one.

That's okay, I served it up like a steamin' hot plate of calamari.....

[FBI]

Can you have a don’t care option like let’s say I wanted to rate top15 but don’t know much/care about the rest and don’t want to skew results?

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by FBI

Can you have a don’t care option like let’s say I wanted to rate top15 but don’t know much/care about the rest and don’t want to skew results?

I don't think it is possible.

I suspect that besides the top 15-20, and the bottom 5, there is a lot of interchangeability in that 20 to 30 range.

[neo45]

Great idea everyone do it and let’s track variance

[FlamesAddiction]

I thought I would post the results in case anyone is curious. The poll actually closed on Dec. 31st, but I copied the results before it got deleted.

The prospects are placed in their order of popularity. The number in square brackets is their relative rank, the number right before their name is the average spot that they were picked. The number in brackets after their name represents their position in the Annual CP Rankings using the run-off format.

You can kind of see where the perceived tiers are based on where the gaps are and how outside of Valimaki, the rest of the top 10 is very debatable among fans. There is no consensus for a number 2, and the 4th most popular prospect had an average rank of 7th.

I put a space in between players where it looks like there might be tier, but it is obviously pretty subjective especially the further you go down the list.

The rankings are remarkably similar between the two polls I must say. I expected there to be a little more deviation based on how often small minorities won due to the vast number of choices available in the top 15 or so. I expected it more further down the list, but it is a lot closer everywhere than I thought it would be.


[1] 1.6 Valimaki (1)
-
[2] 3.4 Pelletier (3)
[3] 3.8 Zary (2)
-
[4] 7.1 Wolf (4)
-
[5] 8.6 Mackey (5)
[6] 8.7 Pettersen (6)
-
[7] 10.8 Kinnvall (12)
[8] 11.2 Gawdin (8)
[9] 11.7 Phillips (7)
[10] 12.3 Zavgorodniy (9)
[11] 12.7 Poirer (10)
[12] 12.8 Kuznetsov (11)
-
[13] 14.3 Ruzicka (13)
[14] 14.7 Chechelev (14)
-
[15] 17.4 Francis (18)
[16] 17.7 Parsons (15)
[17] 18.4 Yelesin (16)
[18] 18.4 Nikolayev (17)
[19] 19.4 Pospisil (23)
-
[20] 20.6 Zagadulin (22)
[21] 21.4 Lerby (25)
[22] 21.6 Philp (24)
[23] 21.8 Kerins (21)
[24] 22.1 Boltmann (19)
[25] 22.1 Poolman (20)
[26] 23.5 Tuulola (27)
[27] 24.8 Nodler (26)
[28] 25.1 Solovyov (28)
-
[29] 26.9 Feuk (29)
[30] 27.2 Koumontzis (30)
[31] 28.0 Sveningsson (32)
[32] 28.4 Karnaukov (33)
[33] 28.6 Kirkland (31)
[34] 30.5 Rafikov (34)
[35] 32.5 Mattson (35)

Thanks to everyone that voted!

[Geeoff]

I must admit that I am much more excited for Pelletier and Zary after their recent appearances. Pelletier is already so well-rounded and Zary is a dangerous looking offensive player.


I think Pelletier looks like a shoe-in as an extremely hard to play against middle 6 player, while the sky is the limit for Zary

[Enoch Root]

So it's basically identical except for Kinvall, who was tearing it up during your poll.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

So it's basically identical except for Kinvall, who was tearing it up during your poll.

If going by numerical order. I think the more interesting take away is that in the top 10 outside of Valimaki, the average was lower suggesting a lot of variability. For example, only 6 players averaged within the top 10.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

If going by numerical order. I think the more interesting take away is that in the top 10 outside of Valimaki, the average was lower suggesting a lot of variability. For example, only 6 players averaged within the top 10.

Yeah, that's interesting, but I think it is just a function of the fact that there is only one-way variability for the top guys. What I mean by that is that a fan might dislike a player, relative to the rest of the group (rank them lower), but it is unlikely that they will rank them higher.

Take Kinvall for example. He was 7th, but had an average of almost 11. IMO, that is because almost no one is going to rank him above the top 6 (or at lest top 5), but many people will rank him lower than 7. Same for the rest of the people on the list.

Variability increases as you move down the rankings, but also, it is extremely difficult to get top 10 votes. So you end up with everyone from Kinvall down averaging lower than their rank (skewing to the right).

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Yeah, that's interesting, but I think it is just a function of the fact that there is only one-way variability for the top guys. What I mean by that is that a fan might dislike a player, relative to the rest of the group (rank them lower), but it is unlikely that they will rank them higher.

Take Kinvall for example. He was 7th, but had an average of almost 11. IMO, that is because almost no one is going to rank him above the top 6 (or at lest top 5), but many people will rank him lower than 7. Same for the rest of the people on the list.

Variability increases as you move down the rankings, but also, it is extremely difficult to get top 10 votes. So you end up with everyone from Kinvall down averaging lower than their rank (skewing to the right).

Yeah, I kind of thought that Kinvall would jump a little, surprised Chechelev didn't. My hypothesis was off on how much it would affect the final rank in plain numerical order, but the variability is interesting to see presented how it is. Mackey and Pettersen fall in at 5th and 6th in both, but had average rankings closer to 9th. It means most people wouldn't rank them that high.

I could be doing this wrong, but I think if there are only 6 players that averaged with in the top 10 choices, that would suggest that more than 4 other prospects would have been a top 10 choice for a good number of people, likely more than that.