All things general military

[Baron von Kriterium]

Originally Posted by Baron von Kriterium

While Russia and Turkey support opposing sides in the Armenian/Azerbaijani dispute, they buitted heads at times in Idlib, Syria, and now they are conducting joint patrols in Syria.

Three Russian MP were slightly wounded in this attack. Their vehicle did a great job protecting them.

The Russian response to the IED attack...








Geo-location:
https://www.google.com/maps/place/35...6.293523?hl=en

[Baron von Kriterium]

ARMENIA/AZERBAIJAN

Latest developments:

https://twitter.com/user/status/1284131107093590017

Nakhchevan is an Azeri enclave in Armenia.


Armenian Defense Ministry Spokesperson:

https://twitter.com/user/status/1284124225029242881

Turkey threatens Armenia

https://twitter.com/user/status/1283837209636995073

The latest tally from four days of clashes:
Armenia, 4 KIA
Azerbaijan, 11 KIA

Updated map of clashes as of 17 Jul 20


You can read a decent chronology of events of the past week here:
http://yandunts.blogspot.com/2020/07...0-working.html

[CaptainCrunch]

Japan announces plans for a new Stealth fighter

Hong Kong (CNN)Japan has announced plans to build one of the world's most sophisticated stealth jet fighters, likely a twin-engine aircraft designed to take over the country's critical air defense role sometime in the next decade.



The Ministry of Defense this week told members of the Diet, the country's parliament, that the new sixth-generation fighters would begin production in fiscal year 2031 and replace the country's aging fleet of almost 100 F-2 jets, single-engine fourth-generation fighters modeled after American F-16s, according to Japan's national broadcaster NHK News.

News of Japan's fighter development comes as the US State Department approved the sale of more than 100 US F-35 fighter jets to Japan.


The sale would consist of 63 F-35A jets, which take off from runways, and 42 F-35B jets, which require a short takeoff roll and can landing vertically. Those would be used on Japanese helicopter destroyers, essentially small aircraft carriers it will upgrade to handle the F-35Bs.

With the new purchases, Japan plans to operate 147 of the F-35s. Its first squadron of 13 planes went operational last year at Misawa Air Base on the northern edge of the country's main island of Honshu.

[dammage79]

And isn't Russia just taking Georgia's border a couple of feet a day? Pretty sure I saw that on the grand tour.

That's a pretty tight area for so many countries. Given Armenian history I can't help but think this won't go so well for them.

[Baron von Kriterium]

Originally Posted by dammage79

And isn't Russia just taking Georgia's border a couple of feet a day? Pretty sure I saw that on the grand tour.

Russia supports the self-proclaimed break-away republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. They have bases in Abkhazia as far as I know.

Originally Posted by dammage79

That's a pretty tight area for so many countries. Given Armenian history I can't help but think this won't go so well for them.

Armenia has an ace in the hole: Russia. Russia maintains a permanent military base in Gyumri, Armenia. About 3000 Russian troops are stationed there. Armenia and Russia have a friendship treaty and one of the provisions is that Russian border guards are permitted to patrol the frontiers between Turkey and Iran.

[Baron von Kriterium]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Japan announces plans for a new Stealth fighter

They need the new fighter because the F35 can't carry this:



This is their new ship-killer missile.

[JoseCuervo]

Originally Posted by Baron von Kriterium

The Russian response to the IED attack...








Geo-location:
https://www.google.com/maps/place/35...6.293523?hl=en

I am sure the Russians are pumped to have another reason to shell women, children and hospitals.

[Baron von Kriterium]

LIBYA

A couple of days ago, the Turk Air Force made its first direct flight to Libya, specifically to the air force base in Misrata.



This Government of National Accord (GNA) captured this base from the Libyan National Army (LNA) in May. Since then, Turkey has been busy repairing damage to the base. It's quite likely that Turkey wishes to establish a permanent presence at this base.

At the beginning of this month, there was an air strike on the base that took out the Hawk AD and the KORAL EW systems. Again, Turkey/GNA have been busy rebuilding, as the second photo below seems to indicate. It's possible that the first military flight into Misrata delivered AD and/or EW systems.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1282033138403868677

https://twitter.com/user/status/1282032234447478788

The LNA claimed responsibility for the attack but there haven't been any confirmed reports of who launched the attack. The GNA claimed the jets were UAE Mirage 2000 that launched their attack from Egypt.

In the meantime, at least 14 (according to AFRICOM) MiG29 and Su24 fighters arrived at the Al-Jufrah air base in south central Libya. The LNA controls this base.




AFRICOM reported the jets flew from Russia, which is likely true, but I doubt they are de jure Ru AF. At some point they were but MiG29 has basically been removed from RuAF. So, this seems like a Wagner operation and the pilots will be Wagner mercs.

MiG29 and Su24 were spotted at the Russian air base in Syria prior to being seen in Libya.


Turkey and the GNA are setting the stage for an attack on Sirte. Egypt supports the LNA and has positioned its army on the border. Algeria stands with Egypt and has mobilized along its border with Libya. And France's Macron has stated he won't tolerate Turkey in Libya.

[afc wimbledon]

Getting in as much as they can in case their puppet loses to Biden no doubt

[btimbit]

Loving these posts Baron von Kriterium. Very interesting.

[Baron von Kriterium]

And, just like that, Reuters reports a column of about 200 GNA vehicles heading east towards Sirte from Misrata.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-l...-idUSKCN24J0RP

The LNA expects a battle to begin "within hours" and has deployed their maritime patrols off the coast of Sirte. Maybe they should be deploying those SU24s or UAE Mirages to light up the Muslim Brotherhood's convoy. Couldn't hurt.

The Libyan tribal leaders met with Egypt's Al Sisi in Cairo on 16 Jul and requested Egypt's support. Al Sisi seems like he will intervene if GNA attacks Sirte, but I'm not sure (confident?) he will.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1283752371412185089

[Baron von Kriterium]

LIBYA/EGYPT Update

Originally Posted by Baron von Kriterium

The LNA expects a battle to begin "within hours"...

The GNA hasn't yet attacked, possibly because the Egyptian Parliament authorized the deployment of their military in Libya. Al-Sisi hasn't taken any action yet other to hold drills along the border. LNA claims to have shot down a Turk drone near Sirte this morning.

Sirte is a vital point because it is an oil-exporting terminal.



Egypt has a potentially much bigger problem than Libya to deal with: the construction by Ethiopia of the The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile river.

While nobody really knows what the eventual impact of this dam will be on Sudan and Egypt, it is pretty clear that a civilization built along the Nile river will face a major threat to its way of life if the Nile river flow is disturbed in a major way (which this dam will definitely do). Major actors will decide the fate of Libya, not Turkey and Egypt. So, I am inclined to think Egypt is prepared to spark conflict with Ethiopia over this dam. How they would go about that is an interesting topic itself.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1285850858673131520

[Fuzz]

Egypt has a problem with GERD? Nothing a little Zantac won't fix.




/low hanging fruit

[CaptainCrunch]

India has modified their nuclear targetting packages to include Beijing.


https://www.wionews.com/india-news/i...-report-315192

Án analysis done by Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists suggests how India's nuclear strategy, which has traditionally focused on Pakistan, now appears to place its emphasis on China, with Beijing in range of Indian missiles.


The analysis was done by authors Hans M. Kristensen and Matt Korda which further suggest that the change in posture was reinforced after the 2017 Doklam standoff.

According to the report, the change in posture resulted in all-new Agni missiles having ranges that indicate their primary target as China.



It goes on to say that the expansion of India's nuclear posture to take a conventionally and nuclear superior China into account will result in significantly new capabilities being deployed over the next decade, which could potentially also influence how India views the role of its nuclear weapons against Pakistan.



India, in-order-to achieve the posturing against China, will have to pursue more aggressive strategies- such as escalation dominance or a 'splendid first strike'- against Pakistan.

he authors pointed to India's efforts to counter China's aggressive development of its defence forces. The report claims that India continues to modernise its nuclear arsenal, with at least three new weapon systems now under developments to complement or replace existing nuclear-capable aircraft, land-based delivery systems, and sea-based systems.


Several of these systems are nearing completion and will soon be combat-ready. India is estimated to have produced enough military plutonium for 150 to 200 nuclear warheads but has likely produced only 150.

On-air front, India will soon be adding Rafale Fighter Jets that India has purchased from France. In fact, recent reports suggest that Indian Air Force will be inducting 5 Rafale Jets at Ambala Airbase on July 29th.


The Rafale is used for the nuclear mission in the French Air Force, and India could potentially convert it to serve a similar role in the Indian Air Force.



Rafale will be joined by Mirage 2000H and Jaguar IS aircraft. According to an estimate in the report, three or four squadrons of Mirage 2000H and Jaguar IS aircraft at three bases are assigned nuclear strike missions against Pakistan and China.

India's nuclear arsenal estimated


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India_...ss_destruction


Last years test by the French Airforce on using Rafale's to launch a ASMP Cruise missile which carries a up to 300 kt warhead with a range of 500 km and a speed of mach 4.


Arihant Class SSBN which was commissioned in 2016 and carries up to 8 irbms with single warheads (750 km). Or 4 long range ballistic missiles with a range of 3300 km.

[Baron von Kriterium]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

India has modified their nuclear targetting packages to include Beijing.


https://www.wionews.com/india-news/i...-report-315192

India is also on a panic buy for all kinds of weapons and gear, as this graphic shows.

If you thought Canada was the only country with Defence procurement issues, India says to hold their beer. In India, the byzantine procurement process involves a civil & military bureaucracy & the political leadership. it can take a decade to purchase anything. Sounds familiar.

Originally, India planned to integrate Israeli munitions with the Rafales they are buying but will now use French munitions that can be delivered with the new Rafales.

[CaptainCrunch]

Interesting that they're buying the light tank (Sprut). I thought they went whole hog into the T-90 heavy tank and their home grown Arjun tank.


The Sprut is fast, but while its designated as a tank destroyer, its defensive capabilities are a little suspect.

[Baron von Kriterium]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Interesting that they're buying the light tank (Sprut). I thought they went whole hog into the T-90 heavy tank and their home grown Arjun tank.

The Sprut is fast, but while its designated as a tank destroyer, its defensive capabilities are a little suspect.

T72, T90 and the Arjun are more suited for the western border with Pakistan, specifically the Punjab Plains and Rajasthan Desert. India has deployed T72 and T90 to Ladakh but these tanks faced terrain-related restrictions. That's been the past two months; imagine the logistics in the winter at 16000 ft.

The Sprut is air-liftable by Mi26 and is more nimble for the mountainous terrain of the Ladakh. However, I'd be more inclined to base my defense on Kornet ATGM and artillery. But I'm not sure the Indians are thinking defense here.

The Chinese intend to want to keep the border region hot and they have already deployed their T-15 and artillery to the Depsang Plains, which straddles the Line of Actual Control. Depending on which source you read, they may have already set up shop on the Indian side. If so, then India will require some offensive maneuvering to root them out.

[CaptainCrunch]

I don't think that you can plan around beating the Chinese for example with a defensive strategy. Their whole game plan is based around throwing the kitchen sink at you combined arms wise, hit you with air artillery, direct fire, infantry. Try to over whelm your defenses, force a breach and send a maneuver group through the breech and cause havoc in your rear.


I would think the only way to really successfully fight the Chinese is to find a way to break up their attack before it forms, go after their logistics and force them to react to you.


So yeah a light tank would be interesting especially in rough terrain. I'm just not sure of the suitability of a tank like the Sprut which while having a decent gun and great speed, is pretty rudimentary in terms of defending itself in a modern battlefield.


I remember when I was in the T-72 was considered to be one of the great tanks at the time, but it was a true reflection of the sometimes weird over thinking that Soviet designers were sometimes guilty of.


The auto loader could be described as fussy. They had their ammo carousal for the auto loader ringing around the turret, so on a side shot you'd get that spectacular turret launched a 100 feet in the air.


Just like with thier personal carriers when they put the fuel tanks in the rear access doors where the troops had to bail out.

[Baron von Kriterium]

Via AlMasdarNews.com


China has started exporting the third generation of their Red Arrow-12 anti-tank systems, also known as the HJ-12.

According to the China Defense website, Algeria has become the first Arab country to obtain the upgraded Chinese anti-tank system.



The purchase of this weapons system by itself is not really news, but it is part of an increasing trend of Chinese influence in North Africa and the Middle East.

[CaptainCrunch]

China adopting the old Soviet system of influence through weapons export. The more you buy the more you fall into their net.


China is aggressive and belligerent. I don't doubt that at some point Japan will need to examine the nuclear question.


Taiwan has been nibbling around the edges of a nuclear program for years and have the ability to enrich plutonium already in place. It might be prudent for them to go to a deterrence strategy since its getting harder for them to depend on the US.