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Originally Posted by Itse
I find it interesting how disproportionately often UFO sightings happen around United States in particular and to American pilots.
It's also funny how UFO sightings have gone down over time, despite the population of the world growing and the amount of detection and recording technology available to people increasing about a million fold.
Or around military bases and sites where nuclear weapons are stored.
In years past many of the UFO sigthings were later explained as people seeing experimental aircrfat being tested by the US Government. Maybe Fravor saw something similar.
Is it any more ore less plausible to think that even within a universe teeming with intelligent life, we here on earth remain on the cutting edge of new technology? Maybe we are the ones who have advanced the furthest.
Classic human arrogance.
Just going by the numbers game. Billions of galaxies. Takes 1 intelligent species in every 100,000 of those to significantly reduce our odds of being the most advanced, and who knows if they're much more common than that.
And given that we've been around for essentially the blink of an eye, it wouldn't be a wise bet. I mean the vast majority of our technology has come about in the span of a measly few hundred years.
That's just easy to say when we can't see the forest from the single tree we've been staring at our whole existence. We're living in a tiny shoebox and many are assuming theres nothing interesting or advanced beyond us outside of it.
Talk about short sighted beliefs. But humans will human. We da best!
Many humans are not so arrogant to assume we are alone. Drake formulated his equation to estimate the probability of alien civilizations. Voyager has a recording for any one that discovers it. SETI has been listening to the stars for decades.
Soon, we may be able to glimpse extra-solar earth-like planets, or their atmospheres.
Just going by the numbers game. Billions of galaxies. Takes 1 intelligent species in every 100,000 of those to significantly reduce our odds of being the most advanced, and who knows if they're much more common than that.
And given that we've been around for essentially the blink of an eye, it wouldn't be a wise bet. I mean the vast majority of our technology has come about in the span of a measly few hundred years.
That's just easy to say when we can't see the forest from the single tree we've been staring at our whole existence. We're living in a tiny shoebox and many are assuming theres nothing interesting or advanced beyond us outside of it.
Talk about short sighted beliefs. But humans will human. We da best!
It's not arrogance. It's a legitimate possibility. As Pho suggested, even in view of the size and age of the universe, how much of that time and space is expended before the necessary preconditions of life arise? How many events take place where intelligence actually emerges over time? Maybe 12.5 billion years is just as long as it takes.
I am totally open to the likelihood of life elsewhere in the universe, but I am also fairly convinced of it's exceptional rarity. Convinced enough to think that among extraterrestrial civilisations we are quite possibly closer to the cutting edge of technological advancement than behind it.
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Originally Posted by woob
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Location: A simple man leading a complicated life....
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Originally Posted by photon
Why would he? The brain is known to be unreliable, and more credentials doesn't make that less true.
Look at the one video describing the object as going fast over the water, the military guys are convinced of this but a bit of trig with their own instruments shows it to not be true.
Trying to explain every single memory by every person is kind of a waste of time since they don't really count as evidence.
If they do then angels and demons and ghosts all exist too.
Let me rephrase my question...
We use eye witness accounts when trying to convict people of crimes or in car accidents and other things, but here you say here it doesn't count or matter.
We should trust one persons explanation of the video and say it's a shut and closed case? Or is what Fravor and 3 other pilots saw, which defies the law of science and physics, we should out right dismiss what they saw and say it faulty memory?
Just trying to understand your logic here.
Even if we accept the false readings, these UFO's were being investigated and tracked on radar by other Navy ships long before Fravor and his crew came on the scene.
Shouldn't we be collecting more data from the DOD and doing a further investigation?
We use eye witness accounts when trying to convict people of crimes or in car accidents and other things, but here you say here it doesn't count or matter.
And research shows that the eye witness accounts are very unreliable.
Eye witness accounts matter in that they're suggestive and may indicate that there's something going on and worth actual research.
But they don't constitute the kind of evidence necessary to prove extraordinary claims like aliens, ghosts, or angels.
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Originally Posted by Dion
We should trust one persons explanation of the video and say it's a shut and closed case?
Nope I never claimed that, and neither does the guy who made that video. He always says that his videos aren't definitive proof that aliens don't exist, or that the phenomenon in question wasn't an alien, only that there are more mundane explanations possible.
That's all that is required to discount one claimed explanation for a phenomenon is to provide other plausible explanations. That's why extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.
Back to my example of a hoof print. Could be horse, zebra, or unicorn. Because we know horses and zebras exist, and we know horses are common in southern Alberta, it's not reasonable to claim it's a unicorn hoof print without more evidence.
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Originally Posted by Dion
Or is what Fravor and 3 other pilots saw, which defies the law of science and physics, we should out right dismiss what they saw and say it faulty memory?
Why not? We know for a fact that memory is faulty. They experienced something, but there's no reason to hold up their accounts above all the other evidence.. as you say if a phenomenon defies the known laws of science and physics, "I saw it" doesn't meet a reasonable standard of evidence. There's no reason to believe their accounts are accurate reflections of what really happened.
If there's a lot of such accounts great, that suggests it's worth spending resources to investigate further. Maintain a drone for investigating such things. Create a standard operating procedure for such cases that trigger an investigation to gather more intelligence. Gather actual evidence.
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Originally Posted by Dion
Shouldn't we be collecting more data from the DOD and doing a further investigation?
Sure, though I guess the difficult part might be convincing taxpayers to pay for it.
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Originally Posted by photon
and research shows that the eye witness accounts are very unreliable.
Eye witness accounts matter in that they're suggestive and may indicate that there's something going on and worth actual research.
But they don't constitute the kind of evidence necessary to prove extraordinary claims like aliens, ghosts, or angels.
As long as it's included as a part of the evidence, i'm fine with that.
To be clear I wasn't suggesting that we should take Fravor's views and disregard anything else.
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nope i never claimed that, and neither does the guy who made that video. He always says that his videos aren't definitive proof that aliens don't exist, or that the phenomenon in question wasn't an alien, only that there are more mundane explanations possible.
That's all that is required to discount one claimed explanation for a phenomenon is to provide other plausible explanations. That's why extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.
Back to my example of a hoof print. Could be horse, zebra, or unicorn. Because we know horses and zebras exist, and we know horses are common in southern alberta, it's not reasonable to claim it's a unicorn hoof print without more evidence.
Working from the premise that it's some something explainable is the correct way to approach subjects like this. Look at all the plausible explanations and if that doesn't answer the question, then leave it as unexplainable before you say it's an Flying Saucer.
I don't think Fravor was claimimg those Tic Tac's were Alien spacecrafts. He didn't have an answer for what he saw and came out saying they are not from this world.
That being said my concern is an explanation like the one for the video might be enough to convince people that we don't need to do any further investigations.
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why not? We know for a fact that memory is faulty. They experienced something, but there's no reason to hold up their accounts above all the other evidence.. As you say if a phenomenon defies the known laws of science and physics, "i saw it" doesn't meet a reasonable standard of evidence. There's no reason to believe their accounts are accurate reflections of what really happened.
If there's a lot of such accounts great, that suggests it's worth spending resources to investigate further. Maintain a drone for investigating such things. Create a standard operating procedure for such cases that trigger an investigation to gather more intelligence. Gather actual evidence.
I'm pretty sure David Fravor would like to see someone do investigations on what he saw and witnessed. It would probably be comforting to him to know there is a plausible explanation that doesn't include crafts from other planets.
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sure, though i guess the difficult part might be convincing taxpayers to pay for it.
Or getting the government (DOD) to release all the classified documents on the incident.
Could be an experiment aircraft the govt is testing with a new type of shell to make radars show false images. Who knows.
It would probably take a Flying Saucer landing on the lawn of White House with Trump greeting the Aliens and them responding is the best you have for a POTUS?
How many events take place where intelligence actually emerges over time? Maybe 12.5 billion years is just as long as it takes.
This.
The events that have to happen (or not happen) are often overlooked. People often view evolution as a constant upward towards more complex or intelligent life, but it takes some pretty specific evolutionary pushes to evolve intelligent life capable of shaping their own environment. Out of the roughly 5 billion species that have existed on Earth, only one has evolved in that way. That is a pretty significant sample size.
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And research shows that the eye witness accounts are very unreliable.
Eye witness accounts matter in that they're suggestive and may indicate that there's something going on and worth actual research.
But they don't constitute the kind of evidence necessary to prove extraordinary claims like aliens, ghosts, or angels.
Nope I never claimed that, and neither does the guy who made that video. He always says that his videos aren't definitive proof that aliens don't exist, or that the phenomenon in question wasn't an alien, only that there are more mundane explanations possible.
That's all that is required to discount one claimed explanation for a phenomenon is to provide other plausible explanations. That's why extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.
Back to my example of a hoof print. Could be horse, zebra, or unicorn. Because we know horses and zebras exist, and we know horses are common in southern Alberta, it's not reasonable to claim it's a unicorn hoof print without more evidence.
Why not? We know for a fact that memory is faulty. They experienced something, but there's no reason to hold up their accounts above all the other evidence.. as you say if a phenomenon defies the known laws of science and physics, "I saw it" doesn't meet a reasonable standard of evidence. There's no reason to believe their accounts are accurate reflections of what really happened.
If there's a lot of such accounts great, that suggests it's worth spending resources to investigate further. Maintain a drone for investigating such things. Create a standard operating procedure for such cases that trigger an investigation to gather more intelligence. Gather actual evidence.
Sure, though I guess the difficult part might be convincing taxpayers to pay for it.
We're not just talking about the eye witness accounts of highly trained fighter pilots though...
You seem to think that acknowledging that there are strange things happening in the sky and being documented by the most advanced sensor systems a military with an unlimited budget can buy, means saying aliens are real and visiting. It does not.
We're not just talking about the eye witness accounts of highly trained fighter pilots though...
You seem to think that acknowledging that there are strange things happening in the sky and being documented by the most advanced sensor systems a military with an unlimited budget can buy, means saying aliens are real and visiting. It does not.
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A pilot who has since been making his rounds to talk shows and public appearances that he likely gets paid for. I am sure there will be a book coming out soon.
Something happened to him that he can capitalize on his 5 minutes of fame. When someone is that invested into something, you have to wonder if the eyewitness accounts become influenced by the business side of that he is fully entrenched in.
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If it stands to reason that interstellar travel is possible by contracting space time in front of an object and expanding space time behind an object such that it can travel through space faster than the speed of light, would it not stand to reason therefore that time travel itself is also possible?
And if time travel itself was possible, is it possible that superior alien civilizations much more advanced than us realize something we don’t? That we are not, or never will be, any kind of threat whatsoever?
If it stands to reason that interstellar travel is possible by contracting space time in front of an object and expanding space time behind an object such that it can travel through space faster than the speed of light, would it not stand to reason therefore that time travel itself is also possible?
And if time travel itself was possible, is it possible that superior alien civilizations much more advanced than us realize something we don’t? That we are not, or never will be, any kind of threat whatsoever?
As I understand it (and to be clear, my understanding is not strong), while it is theoretically possible to travel forward in time, any thought of traveling backward is a pipe-dream. "The past" does not exist except in our individual and collective memories.
I was watching something recently in which the idea of light speed travel was explored, and it was thought that navigation would be essentially impossible, since it would require creating an indestructible field around the travelling object in order to move it safely through time space. The problem with this is that the indestructible bubble would then destroy all matter in its path on its way to its destination.
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Originally Posted by woob
"...harem warfare? like all your wives dressup and go paintballing?"
As I understand it (and to be clear, my understanding is not strong), while it is theoretically possible to travel forward in time, any thought of traveling backward is a pipe-dream. "The past" does not exist except in our individual and collective memories.
I was watching something recently in which the idea of light speed travel was explored, and it was thought that navigation would be essentially impossible, since it would require creating an indestructible field around the travelling object in order to move it safely through time space. The problem with this is that the indestructible bubble would then destroy all matter in its path on its way to its destination.
That doesn't sound like such a problem if you are in the bubble! Space is mostly empty anyway. The odds of colliding with anything meaningful would be pretty slim, no?
We're not just talking about the eye witness accounts of highly trained fighter pilots though...
You seem to think that acknowledging that there are strange things happening in the sky and being documented by the most advanced sensor systems a military with an unlimited budget can buy, means saying aliens are real and visiting. It does not.
Nope, not what I think.
The bar of evidence for "acknowledging that there are strange things happening in the sky" hasn't even been passed yet.
__________________ Uncertainty is an uncomfortable position.
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Creating a time machine is easy.. all you need is an infinitely long cylinder spinning at close to the speed of light.
Backwards time travel leads to paradoxes which inclines me to think that it's not possible. Though I'm also an Everettian so maybe paradoxes can be resolved by different universes.
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A pilot who has since been making his rounds to talk shows and public appearances that he likely gets paid for. I am sure there will be a book coming out soon.
Something happened to him that he can capitalize on his 5 minutes of fame. When someone is that invested into something, you have to wonder if the eyewitness accounts become influenced by the business side of that he is fully entrenched in.
Yeah, the Raytheon targeting pod and aegis radars have book deals pending too, I see your point.
As I understand it (and to be clear, my understanding is not strong), while it is theoretically possible to travel forward in time, any thought of traveling backward is a pipe-dream. "The past" does not exist except in our individual and collective memories.
I was watching something recently in which the idea of light speed travel was explored, and it was thought that navigation would be essentially impossible, since it would require creating an indestructible field around the travelling object in order to move it safely through time space. The problem with this is that the indestructible bubble would then destroy all matter in its path on its way to its destination.
Add to that, that if you were to travel at light speed where time moves slower for you then the objects around you, that it would be impossible to predict the randomness of the universe itself. You're destination might be completely changed by random events when you arrive there.
I mean without knowing specifically what your destination is going to be like in the future you could end up flying through a star or bouncing too close to a super nova and that would end your trip real quick. Theoretical physics isn't like dusting crops.
I remember reading a short story about a guy that invented time travel, he built a brilliant time machine and sat in it and pulled the level and ended up in the vacuum of space dying because he'd forgotten to incorporate location calculations in his time travel formula. But he had a nice view of earth before he died.
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