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Old 09-05-2017, 07:34 AM   #1
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Default CP Prospect Rankings 2017 Summary

Quite the long read, but finally got this sucker updated.

Hope you enjoy.

https://www.calgarypuck.com/2017/09/...kings-summary/

Have the Maginot line at 17 (though wanted to kill it at 15). Thoughts?
IBM line won't be popular as I deemed the team to currently have ZERO blue chip prospects though suggested as many as four could be blue chip as early as next summer.
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Old 09-05-2017, 07:44 AM   #2
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In your five year trending graph Bingo it is interesting that Kulak and Wotherspoon look like mirror opposites.
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Old 09-05-2017, 07:50 AM   #3
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Originally Posted by Bingo View Post
Quite the long read, but finally got this sucker updated.

Hope you enjoy.

https://www.calgarypuck.com/2017/09/...kings-summary/

Have the Maginot line at 17 (though wanted to kill it at 15). Thoughts?
IBM line won't be popular as I deemed the team to currently have ZERO blue chip prospects though suggested as many as four could be blue chip as early as next summer.
Another extremely well thought out and clear analysis.
Thanks Bingo and CP voters.
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Old 09-05-2017, 08:01 AM   #4
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Great article Bingo.

Quick question: What does the phrase "isn't uppity under pressure" mean? Something along the lines of "he's cool as a cucumber"?

I would put the Maginot line right where you did. I think Shinkaruk still has NHL potential, just a down year.

I honestly feel that our top 4 prospects are legitimate "blue chippers" in that they should all have decently long NHL careers. Are they top end talents? That's yet to be determined, but the potential is certainly there. I cut it off at Kylington because his decision making is one of those things that disqualify him from being a "blue chip" prospect in my eyes. Defensemen need to be reliable, regardless of skillset.
TL;DR-My IBM line is at 4.
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Old 09-05-2017, 08:18 AM   #5
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Great article Bingo.

Quick question: What does the phrase "isn't uppity under pressure" mean? Something along the lines of "he's cool as a cucumber"?

I would put the Maginot line right where you did. I think Shinkaruk still has NHL potential, just a down year.

I honestly feel that our top 4 prospects are legitimate "blue chippers" in that they should all have decently long NHL careers. Are they top end talents? That's yet to be determined, but the potential is certainly there. I cut it off at Kylington because his decision making is one of those things that disqualify him from being a "blue chip" prospect in my eyes. Defensemen need to be reliable, regardless of skillset.
TL;DR-My IBM line is at 4.
Yeah I see that at 4 for next summer, but seemed premature to call it that now. Parsons should adjust well to pro hockey, Fox with another monster year in College, Valimaki putting on a show in the WHL and Andersson proving he's outgrown the AHL could have a different look in a year.
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Old 09-05-2017, 08:23 AM   #6
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What's an IBM line?
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Old 09-05-2017, 08:35 AM   #7
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What's an IBM line?
Blue Chip players on the list ... how far down the list do you go with blue chip prospects.

I have it at zero currently.
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Old 09-05-2017, 08:47 AM   #8
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Interesting. I think you're being a bit conservative to say there's no blue chippers. Personally I'd say there's 3 clearcut blue-chippers in Jankowski, Parsons and Valimaki. I think Valimaki was underrated in this poll, don't see how Andersson would be considered ahead of him.

A solid year from Gillies could have him back in blue chip status. Andersson/Kylington/Fox all have a chance at making themselves blue chippers as well. I think the depth in our prospect pool is fantastic right now. I see lots of high end players and lots of depth.
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Old 09-05-2017, 08:54 AM   #9
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Interesting. I think you're being a bit conservative to say there's no blue chippers. Personally I'd say there's 3 clearcut blue-chippers in Jankowski, Parsons and Valimaki. I think Valimaki was underrated in this poll, don't see how Andersson would be considered ahead of him.

A solid year from Gillies could have him back in blue chip status. Andersson/Kylington/Fox all have a chance at making themselves blue chippers as well. I think the depth in our prospect pool is fantastic right now. I see lots of high end players and lots of depth.
To me blue chip has to be a combination of high certainty of making it, and a projection of a core or upper roster position.

On those terms I see Jankowski as making it, but he could be a third line guy his whole career ... takes him out of the bluechip rank.

Valimaki may be that guy but if he was a bluechip he wouldn't have gone 16th three months ago.

Andersson/Kylington are moving along, but aren't guaranteed of either making it or being upper roster players at this point.

Parsons has a great projection, but he's a goalie and uncertain. Needs to dominate at a pro level and keep the arch momentum.

The closest guy for me is Fox given what he did last year, but with limited stature and sample size I think he needs another eye popping season to be considered a slam dunk on either making it or being a top 2/3 defenseman.
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Old 09-05-2017, 09:00 AM   #10
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To me blue chip has to be a combination of high certainty of making it, and a projection of a core or upper roster position.

On those terms I see Jankowski as making it, but he could be a third line guy his whole career ... takes him out of the bluechip rank.
I think Jankowski clearly has top two line upside. The centres ahead of him on the depth chart shouldn't limit his upside in your mind IMO. He's pretty much a surefire NHLer and as a kid with size, skating, skill who projects as a top two line centre he's a clearcut blue-chipper. Like no question for me.

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Valimaki may be that guy but if he was a bluechip he wouldn't have gone 16th three months ago.
I don't buy that logic at all. I think last years draft was underrated in terms of its depth of good players. I think drafts have improved a lot overall in terms of depth in the last 10 years. Valimaki has top 2 dman upside with a high likelihood of making the NHL therefore pretty clearcut blue-chipper to me. The Flames had him in their top 11 prospects this draft. It wasn't as bad a draft as was made out to be. Those critical of it were because it lacked generational players at the top end. Basically we'd been spoiled by the McDavid's, Eichel's, Matthews, Laine of the past few years. But the depth of good players last draft was downplayed.

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Andersson/Kylington are moving along, but aren't guaranteed of either making it or being upper roster players at this point.
Agreed. I don't think either are considered blue chippers at this point.

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Parsons has a great projection, but he's a goalie and uncertain. Needs to dominate at a pro level and keep the arch momentum.
He's considered one of the top 2-3 goalie prospects by people outside the organization. I think you're tempering expectations by not naming him a blue-chipper. Craig Button believes this kid is a blue chipper but we don't? Seems weird.

http://www.tsn.ca/test1-1.677389

Button has Parsons as the 12th best prospect outside the NHL last spring. If that isn't blue chip then what the heck is?

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The closest guy for me is Fox given what he did last year, but with limited stature and sample size I think he needs another eye popping season to be considered a slam dunk on either making it or being a top 2/3 defenseman.
Fox is looking promising but yeah I think we need to see a bit more from him overall.

But yeah I think you're underrating their upside or likelihood of making it if you don't see any blue chippers. Like I said I see three totally clearcut blue chippers in this group with a few kids who could develop into ones as well.

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Old 09-05-2017, 09:10 AM   #11
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Graduates
For the fourth straight year the top ranked player on the Calgarypuck summer Prospect Rankings was graduated straight to Calgary with Matthew Tkachuk joining the ranks of Sean Monahan, Johnny Gaudreau and Sam Bennett. Will Mark Jankowski be able to keep that streak alive? Tkachuk went on to form a great combination with Mikael Backlund and Michael Frolik, putting up 13 goals and 28 points as a rookie. The only other 2016 ranked player that I’d call graduated is the much more subdued Freddie Hamilton who spent the entire season on the NHL roster while getting into only 26 games and scoring twice.
Just one thing that may have fell throught the cracks Bingo, Tkachuk had 48 points.

Great write up! Thanks
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Old 09-05-2017, 09:11 AM   #12
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I think Jankowski clearly has top two line upside. The centres ahead of him on the depth chart shouldn't limit his upside in your mind IMO. He's pretty much a surefire NHLer and as a kid with size, skating, skill who projects as a top two line centre he's a clearcut blue-chipper. Like no question for me.
Man I hope you're right!

I see more of a two way Joel Otto type, a guy with great value, but not a core piece or a top six. Both are good results, but I'm hoping you win this argument!

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I don't buy that logic at all. I think last years draft was underrated in terms of its depth of good players. I think drafts have improved a lot overall in terms of depth in the last 10 years. Valimaki has top 2 dman upside with a high likelihood of making the NHL therefore pretty clearcut blue-chipper to me. The Flames had him in their top 11 prospects this draft. It wasn't as bad a draft as was made out to be. Those critical of it were because it lacked generational players at the top end. Basically we'd been spoiled by the McDavid's, Eichel's, Matthews, Laine of the past few years. But the depth of good players last draft was downplayed.
Assigning players to a definition is clearly pretty subjective. I have a tight line for the term blue chip. I like Valimaki, and I think his selection was spot on by the team but a) at 16th overall I don't see him a bluechip and b) I think he needs to do something in his 19th year first

But wouldn't surprise me as early as next season if I change my tune.

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He's considered one of the top 2-3 goalie prospects by people outside the organization. I think you're tempering expectations by not naming him a blue-chipper. Craig Button believes this kid is a blue chipper but we don't? Seems weird.

http://www.tsn.ca/test1-1.677389

Button has Parsons as the 12th best prospect outside the NHL last spring. If that isn't blue chip then what the heck is?
He's a goalie, they're bat#### crazy to project. Looks amazing so far and if I had to pick I'd say he's the goalie of the future but I need to see what he does this season first.
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Old 09-05-2017, 10:03 AM   #13
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The Flames "prospects" are all in the NHL.... Monahan, Bennett, Tkachuck, Lazar are all younger than Spencer Foo. That is a pretty great list of prospects.
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Old 09-05-2017, 10:11 AM   #14
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The Flames "prospects" are all in the NHL.... Monahan, Bennett, Tkachuck, Lazar are all younger than Spencer Foo. That is a pretty great list of prospects.
I believe Dougie Hamilton is six months older than Spencer Foo.

Good thing.

Would have placed you in a difficult situation.
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Old 09-05-2017, 11:05 AM   #15
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I think the Flames have 3 bluechippers - they may not be the bluest of the blue, though Parsons is close. But overall I would say Janko, Parsons and Valimaki (based on early understanding since the draft) I would classify as such.

I would draw the Maginot Line after 11.
When I look at the next 5 on the list: Rittich, Poirier, Phillips, Klimchuk, Sihnkaruk - I see a group of which I think perhaps 1 makes it. So that seems to be into long-shot territory.
Hathaway confuses things at 17 as i think he has a more legit chance to be an every day NHLer.
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Old 09-05-2017, 06:15 PM   #16
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Man I hope you're right!

I see more of a two way Joel Otto type, a guy with great value, but not a core piece or a top six. Both are good results, but I'm hoping you win this argument!
Why do you feel that though? I feel like Nieuwendyk is a closer comparable in terms of style. I dunno every time I've seen Jankowski his skill is obvious. The skating, the skill, the face-offs. He just needed time to mature and fill out. His AHL year was tremendous and certainly showed him to be a skill centre. Otto wasn't really a super skilled guy from what I remember of him. More of a grinding, defensive centre. That isn't really Jankowski from what I've seen of him. He's a skilled, playmaking, offensive centre.

I think the good teams in the NHL don't have a top 6/bottom 6 differentiation. I think the best teams in the league roll their top 3 lines fairly equally at even strength and basically have two 1st lines and a 2nd line, or two 2nd lines and a 1st line. So I don't think Bennett and Jankowski have a huge roadblock with Monahan/Backlund in front of them because I see us being able to construct 3 scoring lines to make a tremendous top 9.

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Assigning players to a definition is clearly pretty subjective. I have a tight line for the term blue chip. I like Valimaki, and I think his selection was spot on by the team but a) at 16th overall I don't see him a bluechip and b) I think he needs to do something in his 19th year first
I have a tight definition for it as well. I just think you may be putting a bit too much stock in his draft position and perhaps underrating the depth from last year. This is a kid that the Flames had top 11, in a pretty good draft year in terms of depth. So basically a borderline top 10 pick. Flames were crossing their fingers hoping he would fall. Are you suggesting only top 5ish guys can be blue-chippers? Tod Button said he has top two defenseman upside. He seems to be pretty comparable to Juolevi who went top 5 the year before. It all adds up to bluechip to me. Not even debatable for me. The scouts and GM have gushed about him. People were impressed by him at development camp, at the WJC summer camps.

In the end I think he's underhyped because we're asset rich. People don't need to be pinning hopes and dreams on him because he was drafted right as we're leaving the rebuild. Seems like he's been underrated in our prospect poll and by you IMO. I'd say he's our most hyped defense prospect since Phaneuf. Total blue-chipper. He can defend, rush the puck, join the attack, shows leadership, eats minutes. What more does he have to do to be considered bluechip? He put up over a point per game in his draft year. I couldn't believe Andersson was voted ahead of him in our prospect poll, to me that shows a shocking underrating of Valimaki's upside. I see Valimaki as having top pairing upside and I don't think Andersson has that upside.

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He's a goalie, they're bat#### crazy to project. Looks amazing so far and if I had to pick I'd say he's the goalie of the future but I need to see what he does this season first.
Yeah but we've never had a goalie prospect this highly thought of in my time of following the team. The press on him from outside scouts and people who follow the OHL is pretty wild. I tend to think if the majority of people outside of Calgary consider him one of the most bluechip goalie prospects outside the NHL we probably should follow suit even though we're a bit wary of ranking them highly. All this kid does is win. And after Dvorak/Marner/Tkachuk left he still wowed. He's impressed at every level. Sure pro is going to be a new challenge but this guy is hyped.

As I said I think you're being super, super conservative to say we have no blue-chippers. Cause in my mind we have 3 guys who are no question blue chippers. Not even close or debatable to me. I see Valimaki, Jankowski and Parsons as not being that far behind Monahan, Tkachuk and Bennett in terms of prospect status before making the NHL.
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Old 09-05-2017, 07:17 PM   #17
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Skeptics gonna skeptic on Jankowski.

But I really consider him a 6'4" Backlund. He's an NHL caliber player right now who I think should become a core piece. I'd say that's a blue chip prospect but I understand why people are skeptical.
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Old 09-05-2017, 07:22 PM   #18
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Great article! I love looking through the history.
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Old 09-05-2017, 08:06 PM   #19
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Are people seriously comparing Mark Jankowski, in " style " or anything else to Joe Nieuwendyk?

Joe scored 51 goals in his rookie season. Selanne, Bossy and Ovechkin are the only players in NHL history to score more in their rookie season. Joe matched that 51 goal total in his second season, where he was a huge factor in the Flames winning their only Cup.

He followed that up with 45 goals in each of his next 2 seasons.

He won the SC with 3 different teams. In 99 with Cup winner Dallas he scored 11 playoff goals, 6 were game winners.

1257 regular season games 1126 points.

Selected as one of the 100 greatest players in NHL history.

If Mark becomes Joel Otto, Flames fans should be ecstatic. Becoming Joe Nieuwendyk is a pipe dream, style wise or anything else.
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Old 09-05-2017, 08:18 PM   #20
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"With in depth analysis, and lacking a catchy headline, Bingo of CP demonstrates the value of online media in the digital age. Name another time hardcore fans have been provided analysis of their own prospect predictions, revealing past success and failure, and projected into data that provides real excitement for the coming Flames season. You will not find it in this publication, but rather, at CP."

--- Calgary SunHerald Sports Editorial, 2023 (they finally admit it but missed the last decade)

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