Sam Bennett Value: Have the Flames held on TOO long? OR is he awesome?

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Bingo

In a boil down world one could assume the lack of finish from his linemates are hurting him, as if it was the player those two numbers should be reversed.

I think, based on numbers alone and nothing else, that you could just as easily draw a conclusion that if a team has poor on-ice shooting percentage when a player is on the ice would mean that player is a poor playmaker.

Not sure how much the data would support it, but I bet at Thornton's peak his teams on-ice shooting percentage with him on the ice was pretty high.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

I think, based on numbers alone and nothing else, that you could just as easily draw a conclusion that if a team has poor on-ice shooting percentage when a player is on the ice would mean that player is a poor playmaker.

Not sure how much the data would support it, but I bet at Thornton's peak his teams on-ice shooting percentage with him on the ice was pretty high.

Right but that's one player.

Backlund/Tkachuk/Frolik last year were a line with terrible on ice shooting percentages.

This year 2/3 of the line is back along with Bennett for a spell and it's the same thing.

So we can't blame Bennett for it ... you can't really blame any one player for a line's on ice shooting percentage. You can make an assumption based on what you see, but the numbers will never spell out who the culprit is.

But I was pointing out that three of the four guys that Bennett has spent the most time with this season are the last, second last and fourth last forwards on the team for shooting percentage.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Dude my only point was a 114 page rage fest between groups that want to trade the guy at any return or hang on because he was the next coming of Jesus can't be labeled homerism.

Wasn't trying to be personal at all. I think you're taking what you think is personal too personally.

I understood that spot has been taken.

[jonkaupp]

No one concerned that Bennett has been getting benched and generally playing like crap as of late? When I saw this thread bumped I assumed that that’s the only thing that anyone would be talking about. But nope, just more crappy stats saying that he’s actually really good. His inconsistency is maddening.

[Phagoof]

It's sad to see, he was playing great for a good stretch there.

Might be time to move him, this teams roster looks ugly without backs down the middle.

[FireFly]

Not just stats. I bumped the thread with a post about how he’s a weakling and his picture was used in an article about how wimpy Americans are getting.

[DazzlinDino]

Originally Posted by Phagoof

It's sad to see, he was playing great for a good stretch there.

Might be time to move him, this teams roster looks ugly without backs down the middle.

Trading him is easy, that is something wishful fans do in the middle of the season. Bennett is not the only Flame that struggles at times, Backlund did, Frolik was benched, even Ferlund struggled last season. Bennett has shown he can be an impact player just not on offense. We know that. The coaches job is to help him play with more consistency. BT himself said trading Bennett wasn't an option and that he has work it out with the team. Still every time he struggles someone wants to trade him, just like they do with Neal; Look at Hamonic and how many people wanted him gone last season. You just have revisit last seasons posts to see how ruthless the comments were. Some people insisted BT had failed and that Hamonic was complete useless waste some people went as far as trashing him. Same with Brodie but it seems the same people never learn they just keep insisting, rehashing. and trashing whichever player is the designated whipping boy at the time. Bennett is what he is, he just has to be more consistent. We already know he is not going to the offensive guy but he has proven can be a solid 2 way player.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by jonkaupp

No one concerned that Bennett has been getting benched and generally playing like crap as of late? When I saw this thread bumped I assumed that that’s the only thing that anyone would be talking about. But nope, just more crappy stats saying that he’s actually really good. His inconsistency is maddening.

Ever since he has been saddled with Tkachuk? Who was sulking about being saddled with Bennett?

Oh no, Backlund is hurt and the 9-2-1 incredibly deep Flames who just lost 1-0 are now a 1 line team. And the young defense was exposed in that game.

* Meanwhile in Toronto, the parade plans continue.

[flamesforcup]

The biggest issue with Bennett is how weak he is on the puck and his shot. I think his iq is there he can make nice passes and plays. It just seems like whenever he was the puck he is struggling to stay on his feet. I still think he can be a late bloomer. He needs to get much stronger and he should start slowing the play down and be more of an east west player and for the love of god work on his shot. I still see potential of a top 6 centre i dont think he's done yet. The question is if it will happen with the Flames or not. If he doesnt show any improvement in the remaining season i think he asks for a trade in the summer and i can really see him becoming something on a different team. I just hope he figures it out before it comes to that.

[Joborule]

It sucks that the highest draft pick by the Flames is looking to end up being a bust, because that's so Flames.

He's practically as Paul Bryon was with the Flames in all the chances he's getting, but not converting. But hopefully he can become what Bryon is today, before Bennett is no longer a Flame.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by jonkaupp

No one concerned that Bennett has been getting benched and generally playing like crap as of late? When I saw this thread bumped I assumed that that’s the only thing that anyone would be talking about. But nope, just more crappy stats saying that he’s actually really good. His inconsistency is maddening.

[snark]

Sacrilege! Those aren't crappy stats. Those are black and white "counting" events. No linking of unrelated data points. No misinterpretation. No gray areas where data has been misattributed. And definitely no errors in data collection that would make data sets specious. Don't you dare suggest that these stats are crappy and present erroneous information. You're missing most of the game if you don't ascribe to the observance of these magical* data points. All praise the spreadsheet.

Bennett is an awesome hockey player. One of the best in the league. Don't let those poor scoring outcomes fool you, Sam Bennett is magnificence, rolled in a blanket of awesomeness, topped with a dollop out tremendousness. Look at those shot attempts he's generating! It doesn't matter that when Bennett winds up that his shot routinely misses the proverbial barn, you can hear the squeals of delight because he managed to take a shot of no consequence. It's a counting event! It doesn't matter that when he does get a shot on goal it is usually an end-over-end flutterball that no self-respecting goaltender is going to let in. The hearts go all aflutter because a counting event just took place. These "events" tell you that Sam Bennett is a good - no great - hockey player, and that it is just a run of bad luck that holds him back! All praise the spreadsheet!

You're missing the most important aspects of the game when you don't swallow this data whole cloth. I mean, Derek Ryan is one of the top 10 players in the NHL! The advanced stats don't lie. They are black and white and they have been counted. Anything less than agreement weighs YOU, and you are left wanting. It doesn't matter whether the actual outcomes of games say something else, or the most obvious of observations tells you something else, you must accept the pseudo-statistics of unrelated events to explain the intricacies of this chaos that exists out on the frozen sheet of ice. Winter is coming, and with it the counting. All praise the spreadsheet!

[/snark]

I hear what you are saying and agree. Bennett is a very concerning player. The outcomes he produces are not good. He generates offense at a 4th line rate. He plays the game in a way that kills his linemates and all creativity. Bennett's first instinct when he gets the puck is to try and beat every player on the ice. When he does make a pass, or try to use his linemates, it is usually way off the mark, in someone's skates, or into a defender. He tries really hard, but doesn't make much happen out there. When you look at Tkachuk it is amazing he has managed to stay somewhat productive being saddled with the 16th most productive player - per 60 minutes of ice time - on the team. Add in Derek Ryan - the 14th most productive player per 60 minutes of ice time - and you have a perfect explanation as to why the second line would be ####. When you are sitting just above Garnett Hathaway in points per 60 minutes, and can thank James Neal and a host of players who have been called up from the AHL from pushing you up the leaderboard, you probably don't deserve that prime ice time you're getting. I really wish the coaching staff would recognize the obvious and shift these guys down where they belong. Bennett produces like a 4th liner, that is where he should be contributing.

*Magic does not exist. If you actually watch the act and understand the mechanisms behind the turn you can clearly see how the performance works and can appreciate the performer for what they are - a mechanic.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by jonkaupp

No one concerned that Bennett has been getting benched and generally playing like crap as of late? When I saw this thread bumped I assumed that that’s the only thing that anyone would be talking about. But nope, just more crappy stats saying that he’s actually really good. His inconsistency is maddening.

I've said many times he's strung about 4-5 games in a row that don't have the same energy.

He's off. His line is off.

Good they're shaking things up.

[Bingo]

Man there is so much wrong here I honestly don't know where to start.

Originally Posted by New Era

Sacrilege! Those aren't crappy stats. Those are black and white "counting" events. No linking of unrelated data points. No misinterpretation. No gray areas where data has been misattributed. And definitely no errors in data collection that would make data sets specious. Don't you dare suggest that these stats are crappy and present erroneous information. You're missing most of the game if you don't ascribe to the observance of these magical* data points. All praise the spreadsheet.

They are black and white.
What is an unrelated data point in this case?
Misrepresentation of what? They're counting shot attempts in boxes.
What errors in data collection? They are counting. Each player is going to miss some shot attempts or get some added with equal measure over a sample size but that will come out in the wash.
I think the fact that you still think there's magic involved is your problem ... it must scare you to fight this fight against something so simple.

Originally Posted by New Era

Bennett is an awesome hockey player. One of the best in the league. Don't let those poor scoring outcomes fool you, Sam Bennett is magnificence, rolled in a blanket of awesomeness, topped with a dollop out tremendousness. Look at those shot attempts he's generating! It doesn't matter that when Bennett winds up that his shot routinely misses the proverbial barn, you can hear the squeals of delight because he managed to take a shot of no consequence. It's a counting event! It doesn't matter that when he does get a shot on goal it is usually an end-over-end flutterball that no self-respecting goaltender is going to let in. The hearts go all aflutter because a counting event just took place. These "events" tell you that Sam Bennett is a good - no great - hockey player, and that it is just a run of bad luck that holds him back! All praise the spreadsheet!

No one says these things. They don't. So why are you? Players with good chance generation stats are often times diamonds in the rough. Are you not a Flames fan? Wouldn't you want to figure out who these potential players are before just dumping said diamond on another team?

Originally Posted by New Era

You're missing the most important aspects of the game when you don't swallow this data whole cloth. I mean, Derek Ryan is one of the top 10 players in the NHL! The advanced stats don't lie. They are black and white and they have been counted. Anything less than agreement weighs YOU, and you are left wanting. It doesn't matter whether the actual outcomes of games say something else, or the most obvious of observations tells you something else, you must accept the pseudo-statistics of unrelated events to explain the intricacies of this chaos that exists out on the frozen sheet of ice. Winter is coming, and with it the counting. All praise the spreadsheet!

This is now approaching down right disingenuous.

You attacked Derek Ryan's defensive game in a drive by. It was pretty easy to refute your claims as bad things just don't happen when he's on the ice.

Nobody said he was a top player, a top 100 player, or anything like that. I said he was ranked high in certain, very specific categories that you attacked. That was it. Never summed it up as he's a top 100 player. In fact I went after his offensive game in the same post.

So why make up all this slop?

Originally Posted by New Era

I hear what you are saying and agree. Bennett is a very concerning player. The outcomes he produces are not good. He generates offense at a 4th line rate. He plays the game in a way that kills his linemates and all creativity. Bennett's first instinct when he gets the puck is to try and beat every player on the ice. When he does make a pass, or try to use his linemates, it is usually way off the mark, in someone's skates, or into a defender. He tries really hard, but doesn't make much happen out there. When you look at Tkachuk it is amazing he has managed to stay somewhat productive being saddled with the 16th most productive player - per 60 minutes of ice time - on the team. Add in Derek Ryan - the 14th most productive player per 60 minutes of ice time - and you have a perfect explanation as to why the second line would be ####. When you are sitting just above Garnett Hathaway in points per 60 minutes, and can thank James Neal and a host of players who have been called up from the AHL from pushing you up the leaderboard, you probably don't deserve that prime ice time you're getting. I really wish the coaching staff would recognize the obvious and shift these guys down where they belong. Bennett produces like a 4th liner, that is where he should be contributing.

You're actually back to reality with this part which is nice.

I agree it is a concern.

But who do you replace these players with in a salary cap world with injuries? Backlund is a given when he comes back. They've tried Neal, Czarnik, Frolik and Bennett in that final top six spot.

So far they haven't found that long term fit.

[edslunch]

Question on this. High Corsi means he’s directing puck towards the net but shooting percentage is based on shots actually on net. Is there something that ties them together like a corsi shooting percentage or a percent on net!

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by edslunch

Question on this. High Corsi means he’s directing puck towards the net but shooting percentage is based on shots actually on net. Is there something that ties them together like a corsi shooting percentage or a percent on net!

Generally corsi is quoted as an on ice measure, not an individual measure. So a player could have a great corsi number without ever actually attempting a shot on goal himself.

They do have individual corsi as well, but it doesn't get brought out all that often.

So an on ice shooting percentage is more than the player's ability to score on a shot attempt, its everyone on the ice with him as well.

[Flash Walken]

Is it statistically accurate to say that bennett improves the 'advanced stats' for every line/pairing he's on, but also limits their tangible offensive output?

Does Jankowski score more actual points per minute with bennett than without, or is it just his advanced stats that are elevated with bennett?

[MrCallahan]

Originally Posted by Joborule

It sucks that the highest draft pick by the Flames is looking to end up being a bust, because that's so Flames.

He's practically as Paul Bryon was with the Flames in all the chances he's getting, but not converting. But hopefully he can become what Bryon is today, before Bennett is no longer a Flame.

I think Sam will be fine, maybe not as highly touted as his draft pick number, but he'll be a contributor in some fashion. But at least it won't be Oilers bad with Yakupov

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Is it statistically accurate to say that bennett improves the 'advanced stats' for every line/pairing he's on, but also limits their tangible offensive output?

Does Jankowski score more actual points per minute with bennett than without, or is it just his advanced stats that are elevated with bennett?

Tried to find that but it looks like there isn't a source.

I can get scoring rates for Bennett with a player vs his overall rates but not the player's rates without him.

Just shot metrics.

Bennett/Jankowski

Bennett GF/60 2.27
Jankowski GF/60 2.09
Together GF/60 2.09

So from that I guess you can say Jankowski is unaffected when they are together and Bennett is hurt? But not as cut and dried as I'd hope.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Man there is so much wrong here I honestly don't know where to start.

I guess you missed the snark tags?


I will just add it is sometimes ridiculous the lengths that people will go to and try to convince you that players are actually better than they appear on the surface. I mean, production is the end result, but even those with low production and high ice time have a case built for their excellence using these non-stats stats. Advanced stats have become the participant ribbons for those who just can't get it done.

[AustinL_NHL]

Man, New Era must really not be a fan of Peters, who is a massive fan of advanced stats