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Old 03-08-2024, 08:15 PM   #861
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Hopefully Markstrom continues to play well so they can get a haul for him at the draft

Holding on to him for next season would be stupid. His value could evaporate fast
Or he could be a good mentor to Wolf. It's a win win no matter what the Flames do.
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Old 03-08-2024, 08:18 PM   #862
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Not beyond the realm of possibility. The way Tij is trending I would consider trading for NJs (high 1st in 2024) for Marky 1:1 over a late 1st pick (2025) and Holtz that was offered. They are heading for top 10 territory in this draft.

We will never know if it was a 1st offered and whether it was 2024 or 2025. The way Devils were trending I suspected they figured 2025 would be the less valuable piece especially after a year of Marky boasting them in standings.

Conny has a few options to get Tij at the draft. Would be ironic if this ends up the play.

Keep your cool Conny. Fitz will quiet down.
How wild would it be if Jersey is drafting around 10th, and when it's time for their pick, Betman says "we have a trade to announce..."
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Old 03-08-2024, 08:38 PM   #863
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No, it doesn’t mean that it is dependent upon variables that are not captured. If you think so, please provide evidence. Otherwise, I could use the same logic to argue that winning the lottery requires skill.
You realize, don't you, that your argument is convertible to a statement that playing goal in the NHL does NOT require skill? Which is absurd on the face of it.

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With respect to GSAE, it is possible to assign values to it prior to the development of the statistic, as has been done with WAR and historical baseball seasons.
Not unless you have the raw data for shot quality, which were not collected with any rigour in the earlier part of the period.

Baseball is a different animal. There is only one pitcher and one batter at a given moment, they remain in fixed locations until the ball is hit, and there is no interaction between the batter and other members of the offensive team. Among major professional sports, it is uniquely easy to analyse.
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Old 03-08-2024, 08:38 PM   #864
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How wild would it be if Jersey is drafting around 10th, and when it's time for their pick, Betman says "we have a trade to announce..."
Something like that would never happen.

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Old 03-08-2024, 08:39 PM   #865
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I didn’t argue that good goalies are not valuable. I argued that there is no way to predict who will be one.
That is equivalent to arguing that there is no such thing as a good goalie.

All we have established here is that GSAx is a poor predictor.
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Old 03-08-2024, 09:02 PM   #866
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https://twitter.com/user/status/1766256758321008883

Here is the clip.

Sounds like he was working off past deals for goalies.

Fitzgerald sounds like a baby, but this is a massive miss by the Flames if we had Holtz and a 1st for no retention.
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Old 03-08-2024, 09:04 PM   #867
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Fitzgerald sounds like a baby, but this is a massive miss by the Flames if we had Holtz and a 1st for no retention.
How about if we had only the 1st for no retention?

Because based on Fitzgerald's other comments, it sounds like he attaches very little value to Holtz.
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Old 03-08-2024, 09:09 PM   #868
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How about if we had only the 1st for no retention?

Because based on Fitzgerald's other comments, it sounds like he attaches very little value to Holtz.
Holtz is junk to him. Why should we accept 1st and junk for our vezina calibre goalie? In turn, wasn't he the one that doing the extortion?
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Old 03-08-2024, 09:09 PM   #869
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Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts View Post
https://twitter.com/user/status/1766256758321008883

Here is the clip.

Sounds like he was working off past deals for goalies.

Fitzgerald sounds like a baby, but this is a massive miss by the Flames if we had Holtz and a 1st for no retention.
We don't and likely won't know if that was on the table, but the title of this very topic includes "unless a higher draft pick is inlcuded" which makes me think it wasn't a 1st as it's hard to get higher than that.
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Old 03-08-2024, 09:10 PM   #870
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How about if we had only the 1st for no retention?

Because based on Fitzgerald's other comments, it sounds like he attaches very little value to Holtz.
Holtz is still a 7th overall pick and we could work on his game and not bury him.

A 1st is another asset we need.

Markstrom does nothing for us, and will most likely be gone when we are competing again.

He says it himself. Goalies have a market and it’s not trading a 2C who is 22 for one.
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Old 03-08-2024, 09:11 PM   #871
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We don't and likely won't know if that was on the table, but the title of this very topic includes "unless a higher draft pick is inlcuded" which makes me think it wasn't a 1st as it's hard to get higher than that.
May be it's 2nd and Holtz and Conny the meanie told him to pound sands.
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Old 03-08-2024, 09:12 PM   #872
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We don't and likely won't know if that was on the table, but the title of this very topic includes "unless a higher draft pick is inlcuded" which makes me think it wasn't a 1st as it's hard to get higher than that.
That’s why I said if.

I’m not saying give Markstrom away. I’ve said all along the reason why this trade was making sense was New Jersey potentially overpaying for a goalie.

If we got offered 3rd and B prospect or Holtz, for sure hold out.
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Old 03-08-2024, 09:16 PM   #873
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Let's walk down the memory lane, on March 7, 1988, the Calgary Flames agreed to send 23-year-old forward Brett Hull along with 27-year-old forward Steve Bozek to the St. Louis Blues for 29-year-old defenseman Rob Ramage and 28-year-old goaltender Rick Wamsley. End result, Flames won their first Cup. If they had said to St Louis "we are not trading our 23 year old sniper for your 28 year old back up and a 29 year old bottom pairing defenseman" The Flames might not have won the cup.
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Old 03-08-2024, 09:18 PM   #874
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May be it's 2nd and Holtz and Conny the meanie told him to pound sands.
I’ve used the Mike stink eye Smith comparable before.

A desperate Flames team wasting assets on goalies, got him for a 3rd and B prospect

Same term. Same age. Similar stats and stink eye was a better playoff goalie.

Expecting Mercer is setting up for disappointment.

Teams know Jersey is desperate, but I don’t think any team is dumb enough to trade a 22 year old 2C for a 35 year old goalie.
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Old 03-08-2024, 09:18 PM   #875
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Holtz is still a 7th overall pick and we could work on his game and not bury him.
The only person who can work on Holtz's game is Holtz, and by various accounts, he hasn't been keen on doing that. His position in the draft four years ago isn't particularly relevant any longer.

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A 1st is another asset we need.
Agreed.

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Markstrom does nothing for us, and will most likely be gone when we are competing again.
I agree with those who say he can have value as a mentor for Wolf. Wolf certainly won't learn to be an NHL starter from Vladar, who has never been one himself.

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He says it himself. Goalies have a market and it’s not trading a 2C who is 22 for one.
But Mercer isn't a 2C at present. In Jersey, he's not even a C.
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Old 03-08-2024, 09:18 PM   #876
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That’s why I said if.

I’m not saying give Markstrom away. I’ve said all along the reason why this trade was making sense was New Jersey potentially overpaying for a goalie.

If we got offered 3rd and B prospect or Holtz, for sure hold out.
As NJ doesn't have a 2nd this year the offer was probably Holtz + 2024 3rd or possibly 2025 2nd at best. I'd imagine that's it. Glad they didn't make the deal if that's the case.
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Old 03-08-2024, 09:22 PM   #877
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The only person who can work on Holtz's game is Holtz, and by various accounts, he hasn't been keen on doing that. His position in the draft four years ago isn't particularly relevant any longer.



Agreed.



I agree with those who say he can have value as a mentor for Wolf. Wolf certainly won't learn to be an NHL starter from Vladar, who has never been one himself.



But Mercer isn't a 2C at present. In Jersey, he's not even a C.
Being a mentor is great, but he could have a negative impact on the 2025 pick with Montreal.

Mercer is viewed as a C. Jersey has a lot of depth that’s why he’s on the wing. Everyone knows that’s why we are pushing for him. He would be a C here. Those types of players aren’t given away for goalies.
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Old 03-08-2024, 09:24 PM   #878
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Being a mentor is great, but he could have a negative impact on the 2025 pick with Montreal.
The value of Wolf panning out as a future starter is much greater than the difference between keeping the Flames' 1st-rounder and Florida's.

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Mercer is viewed as a C. Jersey has a lot of depth that’s why he’s on the wing. Everyone knows that’s why we are pushing for him. He would be a C here. Those types of players aren’t given away for goalies.
Top goalies aren't given away, period. That's why it's so hard to come up with a comparable trade.
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Old 03-08-2024, 09:27 PM   #879
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The value of Wolf panning out as a future starter is much greater than the difference between keeping the Flames' 1st-rounder and Florida's.



Top goalies aren't given away, period. That's why it's so hard to come up with a comparable trade.
Do you think Mike Smith is a top goalie? Eerily similar to Markstrom right now and traded for a 3rd and prospect.
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Old 03-08-2024, 09:30 PM   #880
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As NJ doesn't have a 2nd this year the offer was probably Holtz + 2024 3rd or possibly 2025 2nd at best. I'd imagine that's it. Glad they didn't make the deal if that's the case.
That's probably when Conny ask if there is any beach in NJ and told Fitz to go there and pound sands and hurt Fitz tender feeling.
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