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Old 09-17-2019, 11:00 AM   #61
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One factor that exists for Meier and McAvoy that doesn't necessarily exist for Calgary is that both players are unlikely to leave either market by choice, whereas I'm sure the Flames are under no illusion about whether Tkachuk will do the same.

It's easier for the Bruins to offer McAvoy that deal knowing he wants to stay there than it is for Calgary to offer the same to Tkachuk knowing he probably doesn't.
You are assuming an awful lot here.
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Old 09-17-2019, 11:01 AM   #62
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Even if Meier stays, though, he is almost certainly taking his QO and then waiting until he's a UFA to negotiate, because he'll be able to play the rest of the market off of whoever is SJ's GM at the time and get far more money. Same with Werenski, but especially so in Meier's case, given how high his QO will be (I think it's $10M).
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Old 09-17-2019, 01:28 PM   #63
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I do wonder if the whole strategy of shorter term deals that we are seeing more than ever isn't because of the shifting dynamics of who gets paid vs who used to get the bigger money.

The league is making the younger guys higher paid based, more so, on projections than past accomplishments. Whereas it used to be guys with a long track record of X-level of production and performance were, obviously, older than the guys who are getting the money now. More of a "known commodity" then vs what is expected to be thing.
But if you're basing your strategy on projections, then short term deals don't make sense (from the teams perspective). If it's about projections, then the sensible strategy is to go long term and hope the player grows into the deal.

It used to be about leverage. Post ELC, the player basically had none. Then with an RFA contract, they don't have much. Then with a UFA contract, they have lots. And salaries rose along with player leverage.

But this new trend of big money, post ELC, and for shorter term deals like 5 years (thanks Dubas, you clown) or even 3 years, just ####s everything up. There is nowhere to go from here except either have a few stars get all the money (that has huge problems associated with it), or the market needs to correct this aberration.
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Old 09-17-2019, 01:34 PM   #64
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Even if Meier stays, though, he is almost certainly taking his QO and then waiting until he's a UFA to negotiate, because he'll be able to play the rest of the market off of whoever is SJ's GM at the time and get far more money. Same with Werenski, but especially so in Meier's case, given how high his QO will be (I think it's $10M).
Yes, the city that a player currently lives/plays in is fairly irrelevant with respect to UFA leverage. If the team doesn't pony up, just wait until you are a UFA and let the bidding war determine your worth.

The SJs have an advantage for players like Thornton, who, at this point in their careers, are willing to take less money to stay where they are. But a 26 year old, with another 6-10 years left in their career, and who has already shown that they want to maximize their career earnings, isn't going to suddenly sacrifice that because they currently play in Boston (or wherever). There are plenty of great cities to choose from, and if NY or LA or <insert a city you like here> is willing to pay more, well I am sure they can get used to living there.
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Old 09-17-2019, 01:53 PM   #65
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You are assuming an awful lot here.
All of it actually!

I get it though. I think we assume all Americans would rather play in the States or the East than in a western Canadian city.

Tkachuk said he was hoping Calgary would take him in the draft, which is the equivalent to a touring band saying Calgary rules at the Dome I'm sure, but could be true.

More than likely he sees Calgary as road stop, but we don't actually know this do we?

Similar to Boeser in Vancouver and Matthews in Toronto.
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Old 09-17-2019, 02:04 PM   #66
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All of it actually!

I get it though. I think we assume all Americans would rather play in the States or the East than in a western Canadian city.

Tkachuk said he was hoping Calgary would take him in the draft, which is the equivalent to a touring band saying Calgary rules at the Dome I'm sure, but could be true.

More than likely he sees Calgary as road stop, but we don't actually know this do we?

Similar to Boeser in Vancouver and Matthews in Toronto.
I have no way of knowing this, but I have believed for a long time that the significant majority of NHL players want to make things work with the team that drafted them, and they want to spend their career playing for that one team. Of course, circumstances are a little different for everyone, but look at the opportunity Tkachuk has here in Calgary: He is a 21-year-old star player who is playing a meaningful role on a roster that looks like it will be highly competitive for at least the next three or four years.

I expect that Tkachuk's top priority is to maximize his earning potential, and that secondary to that is winning. If he has the chance to do both in Calgary, it seems likely that he would want to commit long term to what he knows, rather than taking a risk on an uncertain future with another organisation he knows nothing about. I think it is a good bet that Tkachuk prefers the quickest path to UFA, but not because he is in a hurry to move on and play elsewhere. It's all about maximizing the value of his next contract in a winning environment.
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Old 09-17-2019, 09:17 PM   #67
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Hockey players are just like everyone else, some guys want to keep moving around, others don't want to leave the city they were brought up in.
I think trying to infer anything else is a mugs game, clearly a crappy city with a crappy team is going to struggle to hold players but a nice city, or a big one like New York or LA is going to be a cool place to be even on a crappy team.
Conversely who the hell would want to live in Detroit, but under Bowman with years of cup contention the city doesn't matter.
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