Toronto Blue Jays - Offseason Thread

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

Take a look at Donaldson's spray chart and then have a gander at Bautista's. You'll see a very big discrepancy.

Is there a spray chart tool that separates out batted ball results by ball/strike count? All count spray charts don't say anything about a players ability to situationally adjust his approach.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Is there a spray chart tool that separates out batted ball results by ball/strike count? All count spray charts don't say anything about a players ability to situationally adjust his approach.

Sure they do. You don't need to separate out a spray chart by count when one guy's is coloured all over the field and the other's is 99.99% to left field. It tells you everything you need to know. When all a guy can do is power the ball to left field, good pitchers are going to have a field day.

[Cappy]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

That hit by Zobrist to drive in the go ahead runs in game 7 of the WS is exactly the type of thing most Jays hitters wouldn't do, and what most of us are talking about right now.

They were working him outside, so he kept back on it and drove it down the opposite line. If that were EE or JB they would have tried to pull it 450 feet and hit a weak GB to shortstop or watched it get called strike 3, and then whined to the umpire.

You need to change your approach when facing really great pitching, because they are going to try to exploit your weaknesses and will make much fewer mistakes in the process.

That is Zobrist's approach, though. He didn't change anything. He's a slap hitter.

Get him to change his approach by pulling for power and I'm sure things are different.

But, I agree with you, the Jays need more guys capable of doing this. Someone in LF or CF capable of this would be gravy.

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by Cappy

No.

They lost because they ran into a very hot team. A team that knocked off two of the best offensive teams in baseball with some of the better pitching staffs.

Then, they took the BEST team in baseball to the brink of elimination before losing.

It's the anti-Billy Beane argument all over again. "The Jays can't win in the playoffs because of X"

Nevermind that the season comes down to the winner of a 5-7 game series that can turn on a timely/lucky base hit or bad pitch.

Yeah, they knocked off offensive teams that were built to hit for big time power and couldn't adjust. The cubs were able to change their approach and viola they won the world series. The jays had an amazing rotation that should have taken them all the way. The big bats let the team down in a serious way. The Cubs had a marginal advantage in the avg and obp department all year compared to the Jays but it was enough to make them much more effective against the Indians.

You talk about a lucky base hit being the difference in the playoffs....well how do you get that hit when your best hitters are literally swinging for the fences and striking/flying out on every decent pitch? It's all the approach.

Even from an entertainment perspective, baseball is way more entertaining to watch when your team isn't tossing up several sub .250 power hitters that are either on or off with no in between game by game.

[sketchyt]

Originally Posted by Cappy

That is Zobrist's approach, though. He didn't change anything. He's a slap hitter.

Get him to change his approach by pulling for power and I'm sure things are different.

But, I agree with you, the Jays need more guys capable of doing this. Someone in LF or CF capable of this would be gravy.

Zobrist was on Conan the other day and explained this hit. Was interesting. First thing is, they wanted to pitch to him as the guy before him was intentionally walked. Second thing, he fell behind in the count and put himself in a bad spot. Lastly, he got a little lucky as the pitcher made a mistake and left in a place where he could hit it.

Sometimes, I don't know if it's because if it's all about capability. Zobrist got his bat on it, got a little lucky, and also because he's a decent hitter. Stuff like that can go either way in baseball. The Jays have/had a murderer's row of hitters where things lined up great in the first round but just didn't go their way in the second round. Cleveland pitchers barely made mistakes.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus

Yeah, they knocked off offensive teams that were built to hit for big time power and couldn't adjust. The cubs were able to change their approach and viola they won the world series.

I disagree...show me that Boston is a power only team? How many 280 or better hitters did the Red Sox have? The numbers would show that Boston was a great singles hitting team with power.

Cleveland had elite level pitching that they deployed big time to get thru the first two series. I think they visibly ran out of gas come the World Series. Kluber and Miller weren't the same guys in game 7 of that series that they were in game 1. The biggest factor for Chicago in my opinion was being able to add a power hitter with a big time pull approach in Schwarber to their lineup in the AL games. If he's not getting hits in games 1, 6, & 7....does everyone think small ball is the answer?

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

Sure they do.

No, they don't. If you want to see how a guy situationally adjusts his approach you need to be able to differentiate between the situations. A guy who sprays the ball to all parts of the field regardless of the situation isn't changing his approach any more then the guy who pulls it regardless of the situation.

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

I disagree...show me that Boston is a power only team? How many 280 or better hitters did the Red Sox have? The numbers would show that Boston was a great singles hitting team with power.

Cleveland had elite level pitching that they deployed big time to get thru the first two series. I think they visibly ran out of gas come the World Series. Kluber and Miller weren't the same guys in game 7 of that series that they were in game 1. The biggest factor for Chicago in my opinion was being able to add a power hitter with a big time pull approach in Schwarber to their lineup in the AL games. If he's not getting hits in games 1, 6, & 7....does everyone think small ball is the answer?

Preaching a better approach at the plate doesn't mean infield singles and bunts. There's a big difference between playing small ball and not trying to crush a ball 450 Ft against premiere pitchers.

You also can't really compare high averages for a team like Boston when most of the team has great averages every year thanks to playing in the Fenway fun house. Put them in a normal park and those averages definitely drop several points.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

I disagree...show me that Boston is a power only team? How many 280 or better hitters did the Red Sox have? The numbers would show that Boston was a great singles hitting team with power.

Cleveland had elite level pitching that they deployed big time to get thru the first two series. I think they visibly ran out of gas come the World Series. Kluber and Miller weren't the same guys in game 7 of that series that they were in game 1. The biggest factor for Chicago in my opinion was being able to add a power hitter with a big time pull approach in Schwarber to their lineup in the AL games. If he's not getting hits in games 1, 6, & 7....does everyone think small ball is the answer?

For the record, I'm not pushing for "small ball"

I just want the Jays to get more well rounded hitters who make more contact, hit off speed better and hit to all fields more consistently. If they can find some guys who do that yet still mash their share of home runs (Morales fits that description IMO) I don't have a problem with that at all. I just don't want to watch the majority of their hitters go up there and come out of their shoes on every pitch no matter what the situation is.

Even some of the guys they have signed for next season need to adjust their approach. There is no way Kevin Pillar should be going up there and swinging like his life depends on it. He's got good speed and not a ton of power, he should try to learn how to shorten up the swing, make contact and slap the ball to all fields.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

There is no way Kevin Pillar should be going up there and swinging like his life depends on it. He's got good speed and not a ton of power, he should try to learn how to shorten up the swing, make contact and slap the ball to all fields.

No, he really shouldn't. He should try to make contact less... because that guy swings at garbage. Kevin Pillar would be an MVP calibre player if he had more plate discipline. He'd take more walks and get better pitches to hit harder.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by Parallex

No, he really shouldn't. He should try to make contact less... because that guy swings at garbage. Kevin Pillar would be an MVP calibre player if he had more plate discipline. He'd take more walks and get better pitches to hit harder.

lol, clearly I meant he should make more contact on good pitches to hit, but yes he should definitely work on his discipline as well.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Am I the only one that thinks Pillar costs us as many runs or maybe more at the plate as he saves us in the field with his stellar defence? I'm not saying to trade him, but CF is no doubt an area we could definitely improve on. We keep talking about not having a leadoff.. well you can't have guys like Pillar eating up your outfield positions when all your infield positions are filled by power hitters.

[Sylvanfan]

I think they need to consider if they can have Pillar and Upton both on the team. Both guys potentially offer plus defence. Neither one is a very good OBP guy. I think Upton is a better base stealer, but both can run. Upton does offer more power.

I think there are too many duplicated traits for the team to be carrying both of them.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

I think they need to consider if they can have Pillar and Upton both on the team. Both guys potentially offer plus defence. Neither one is a very good OBP guy. I think Upton is a better base stealer, but both can run. Upton does offer more power.

I think there are too many duplicated traits for the team to be carrying both of them.

I think their plan is to get a good LHB that hits right hand pitching well to platoon with him.

He actually hits LHP decently -> .275 / .341 / .533 / .874 with 9 HR in 136 PA against lefties last year. Given that he's only costing them about $1 million in salary for the 2017 season I doubt they move him.

That's why many want Reddick, and probably why there is supposedly interest from the Jays towards Reddick. He's left hand bat that hits righties much better than lefties, and thus would be a perfect platoon partner for Upton in left or right field.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

I think their plan is to get a good LHB that hits right hand pitching well to platoon with him.

He actually hits LHP decently -> .275 / .341 / .533 / .874 with 9 HR in 136 PA against lefties last year. Given that he's only costing them about $1 million in salary for the 2017 season I doubt they move him.

Yeah, but can he still do that if he's only getting 136 plate appearances in a season? What are his overall numbers vs. Pillar?

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

Yeah, but can he still do that if he's only getting 136 plate appearances in a season? What are his overall numbers vs. Pillar?

I dunno if he can, nobody does. Only one way to find out I guess.

Pillar hit for a little more power and a slightly better average against lefties than righties last season.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

Am I the only one that thinks Pillar costs us as many runs or maybe more at the plate as he saves us in the field with his stellar defence?.

The only one? Probably not, but I think you're incorrect... Pillar is legit elite at the third most important defensive position. His glove more then makes up for his bat.

But I meant what I said. If Kevin Pillar could lay off bad pitches he'd be our best player or at least 2nd best. He's a ++ fielder, above average runner, enough power to get it out of the park, solid contact skills... but he swings at junk so they throw him junk.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by Parallex

The only one? Probably not, but I think you're incorrect... Pillar is legit elite at the third most important defensive position. His glove more then makes up for his bat.

But I meant what I said. If Kevin Pillar could lay off bad pitches he'd be our best player or at least 2nd best. He's a ++ fielder, above average runner, enough power to get it out of the park, solid contact skills... but he swings at junk so they throw him junk.

And at this point it's probably pretty safe to say he's never going to stop swinging at junk. As this guy get a little older he will eventually be a bench player as a defensive replacement. He's not even capable of laying down a bunt. At this point in his career he's about one step ahead of Ryan Goins. If his offence drops in the least, he'll find himself in the same position. Centerfield is the third most important position defensively like you said, but it's also one of the positions that drives an offence.

I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt for another year because he is still on the younger side and has a cheap contract, but we can't have guys playing contact/OBP positions when all of the other positions that likely would provide that are filled by power hitters.

I'm not sold on him being an A++ fielder either. I agree he makes spectacular plays and is well above average, but his routes to the ball aren't very good(often leading to the necessity to make those superman plays), his arm is pretty mediocre, and he has a tendency to make some pretty boneheaded decisions out there. Nothing about his game comes naturally. The guy is 100% effort. I'll give him a lot of credit for that, but the A++ guys make it look effortless.

I'm not saying he's a bad player, i'm saying he could easily be upgraded on. When you put the whole package together and ignore his highlight real catches the guy is simply mediocre.

[Cappy]

Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus

Yeah, they knocked off offensive teams that were built to hit for big time power and couldn't adjust. The cubs were able to change their approach and viola they won the world series. The jays had an amazing rotation that should have taken them all the way. The big bats let the team down in a serious way. The Cubs had a marginal advantage in the avg and obp department all year compared to the Jays but it was enough to make them much more effective against the Indians.

You talk about a lucky base hit being the difference in the playoffs....well how do you get that hit when your best hitters are literally swinging for the fences and striking/flying out on every decent pitch? It's all the approach.

Even from an entertainment perspective, baseball is way more entertaining to watch when your team isn't tossing up several sub .250 power hitters that are either on or off with no in between game by game.

I don't think they changed their approach. At least, the stats don't show it. Many of their big guys (Bryant/Rizzo/Schwarber) were still hitting for power and XBH throughout the playoffs

Vs. Cleveland, the cubs hit (249/316/404) vs (237/321/371) for Cleveland. Pretty much a wash.

The Cubs had crap hitting vs. the Giants (200/247/350), and it wasnt much better vs. the Dodgers (238/297/426), but in both cases they hit better than their counterparts who were equally atrocious (and it's not like those teams are big hitting teams anyway)

The Jays had a better average over the series than Cleveland, meaning more base hits. Cleveland had 3 times as many HRs as Tor and the majority were by sluggers like Santana, Napoli, and Kipnis.

Not to mention the extremely small sample size of 17-19 ABs per player, is it any wonder why we shouldn't be changing the entire team based on under 20 ABs? Our best hitter was Michael Saunders, where is the outcry to sign him? Dexter Fowler hit 233/258/467 in the WS with 2 HRs and 2 RBIs. Should we be throwing money at him because of what he did in 30 ABs?

[Cappy]

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb...ider-pursuing/

SportsNet article on FA and trade targets for hitters:

OF FA
- Reddick
- Jay
- Desmond
- Fowler
- Cespedes

OF Trade
- Bruce
- Inciarte
- Eaton
- Blackmon

1B FA
- Pearce
- Napoli

1B Trade
- Votto

Personally, those OF trade candidates look mint. Inciarte/Eaton/Blackmon would all make an excellent OF replacements.... if we had the trade chips.