Alberta Politics Thread v2

[White Out 403]

The amount of time and energy someone has to give to be in politics is incredible. I see first hand with my friend Steve the kind of sacrifice he has to make at home just to campaign. My other friend who is an MLA, Shaye Anderson, devotes enormous time to it and spends a lot of time away from family to be an MLA. It has nothing to do with NDP vs UCP, it has to do with being a respectful decent human being.

[Dion]

Originally Posted by Muta

'Mary' from the UCP texted me yesterday, asking who I will vote for. It was satisfying as hell to text back that a) a vote is private so that's none of their business, and b) delete my number and #### off.

People who send texts have feelings too

[Muta]

Originally Posted by Dion

People who send texts have feelings too

Thank god Mary has no soul then, that would have been mean!

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by White Out 403

The amount of time and energy someone has to give to be in politics is incredible. I see first hand with my friend Steve the kind of sacrifice he has to make at home just to campaign. My other friend who is an MLA, Shaye Anderson, devotes enormous time to it and spends a lot of time away from family to be an MLA. It has nothing to do with NDP vs UCP, it has to do with being a respectful decent human being.

Did you show him your truck nuts and ask him to leave? Or did you lower your shirt a little to show a tattoo of a wild rose on your chest and tell him "this means NOT WELCOME'.

Hypocrisy noted.

Unless you mean just be decent to people in politics that come to ones door....which would be a really weird definition though.

[Dion]

A friend of mine spent 8 years on town council for High River. I'd help her when she went door to door during elections and we both feared the rude and insulting people, but thankfully they were very few. Those that weren't interested would mostly say thanks for stopping by but i'm going to vote for someone else and that would be it.

[Handsome B. Wonderful]

Originally Posted by White Out 403

It has nothing to do with NDP vs UCP, it has to do with being a respectful decent human being.

Then how about they be a respectful decent human being first, and stay the #### off my property.

[Looch City]

Are we at the point where politicians going door to door to talk to people is a bad thing?

Wasn't that known as a good trait some time ago?

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Iggy City

Are we at the point where politicians going door to door to talk to people is a bad thing?

Wasn't that known as a good trait some time ago?

Absolutely they should get out and hear from those they are supposedly working for.

They just have to be prepared to hear backlash and be questioned on their decisions as well as how great they are for "devoting their life to public service"...or whatever that insane rant was.

[troutman]

Originally Posted by Muta

'Mary' from the UCP texted me yesterday, asking who I will vote for. It was satisfying as hell to text back that a) a vote is private so that's none of their business, and b) delete my number and #### off.

Mary, Mary, Why you buggin'?

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Dion

Yes I know why she did it the rail car deal, but it makes no sense to do it just before an election. Maybe she's arrogant enough to think she's going to win.

I was watching Alberta Prime Time a few nights ago and they were talking about parties appointing people and making deals that will affect the next governing party. Saying they all do it.

It makes sense to do the rail deal because waiting 2-3 months means a 2-3 month delay in capacity coming online which means the loss of roughly 9 million barrels a day of production.

It isn’t handcuffing the next government by governing. It’s what we elect them to do.

[Fuzz]

^
It's also looking like a solid plan, given the line 3 delays, and zero chance of more pipe being done before 2021or so. I'd bet we don't get another functioning pipeline until 2025, which means the rail plan is going to be important in the near term.

[Ozy_Flame]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

^
It's also looking like a solid plan, given the line 3 delays, and zero chance of more pipe being done before 2021or so. I'd bet we don't get another functioning pipeline until 2025, which means the rail plan is going to be important in the near term.

Kenney is going to crush that idea, he's already informed CP and CN this isn't happening. And he can't go back on it now otherwise he'll like like a perverted hypocrite, onward ho to a brighter economy!

[burn_this_city]

He was against it until line 3 was delayed, I bet the rail car agreements stay or a half assed attempt at renegotiating.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Handsome B. Wonderful

Then how about they be a respectful decent human being first, and stay the #### off my property.

That’s such a bizarre stance. I don’t think that a politician knocking on your door is disrespectful? Most people would welcome it.

Originally Posted by transplant99

Absolutely they should get out and hear from those they are supposedly working for.

They just have to be prepared to hear backlash and be questioned on their decisions as well as how great they are for "devoting their life to public service"...or whatever that insane rant was.

I guess I’m a bit late, but I doubt very much that Transplant was rude or obnoxious. We’ve never met, and our politics are not (quite) aligned, but he doesn’t strike me as a guy who’d be a jerk about things. He’d probably make his views known, and frankly that’s why politicians door knock. It’s not like it’s unexpected.

[Dion]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

^
It's also looking like a solid plan, given the line 3 delays, and zero chance of more pipe being done before 2021or so. I'd bet we don't get another functioning pipeline until 2025, which means the rail plan is going to be important in the near term.

Given the line 3 delays many of the oil companies would be looking to increase their oil by rail. Why not let the private sector do it's job as opposed to the govt getting involved.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Dion

Given the line 3 delays many of the oil companies would be looking to increase their oil by rail. Why not let the private sector do it's job as opposed to the govt getting involved.

The problem with shipping by rail is it’s a tragedy of the commons.

If I don’t ship by rail and can ship by pipeline I pay $8-$10 per barrel. If I ship by rail I pay $16-$20 per barrel and someone else gets the pipeline space. If no one ships by rail the Diff rises to $40 and we all lose.

What is the best strategy to maximize your individual profits? The answer is to hold out as long as you can until your competitors either go bankrupt or capitulate and sign a long term rail contract. In the mean time Albertans collect zero royalties from their resource.

The other problem with Rail is that it’s not competitive with pipeline costs. So rail companies need to sign long term contracts in order to dedicate railway space and make the capital investment in rail cars. Oil companies want short term commitments so rail capacity expansion will always be limited in areas that will be serviced by future explanation.

So the government has an opportunity to make an investment that the private sector will not make because of the tragedy of the commons means waiting to act is prudent and the private sector can not control the risk profile of pipeline capacity coming on sooner than expected and tanking the investment.

The government also as a few revenue streams from this investment that the private sector doesn’t. It gets more royalties by ensuring a lower differential, or can end curtailment earlier therefore increasing production and getting more royalties and it can profit off of shipping by rail until pipeline capacity is sufficient.

Ideally we would have just built pipelines but because of regulatory failure we have some undesirable options. This rail setup also may not end up that different than common carrier pipelines where users pay for the service whether or not it is fully utilized.

[Dion]

nm

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Dion

I don't see how it makes sense. If it's a profitable venture why haven't the oil companies jumped all over this deal and got their own cars. Why do we need corporate welfare to get our oil to market.

Plus the word out there is the NDP paid too much for the rail car deal.

Also the grain industry has spoken out about the deal saying they have enough trouble as it is getting the rail companies getting their product to market. They say rail companies are not reliable

Some have, with Line 3 still scheduled for next year would you sign a 5 year contract or would you hold out and wait for your competitors to sign the 5 year contract. The answer for the businesses is to hold out.

On the other hand the government gets increased oil revenues plus shipping revenues depending on how they price and manage the project.

I agree the grain industry shouldnt be happy as they will face increase costs as demand for space on rails is higher.

I’d disagree that the “word” is out there that they paid to much. Several UCP supporting individuals and companies have speculated without access to the details that the rate is too high and then the issue disappeared from the media landscape. If the NDP as alleged by these speculators paid double the market rate than the UCP should be hammering them on this daily.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Many of those ridings voted NDP 4 years ago.

What's changed?

Unfilled ridings:

Airdrie-East - newly aligned riding - Wild Rose Angela Pitt is the incumbent, though NDP was competitive
Athabasca-Barrhead-Westlock - newly aligned riding - Wild Rose van Dijken is incumbent running again, though NDP was pretty competitive
Calgary South East - NDP narrowly lost with 31.2% to PC Rick Fraser (32.5%), who is now running for Alberta Party. WR+PC = 61.7%
Edmonton Strathcona - Rachel Notley...apparently they just haven't had the meeting yet
Grande Prairie-Wapiti - NDP got 29% last time; no previous candidates currently running, including PC incumbent Wayne Drysdale. Historically very conservative, though.
Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills - NDP 17%
Vermilion-Lloydminster-Wainwright - NDP 19%
West Yellowhead - NDP 39% - Rosendahl decided on March 3 to not run...mostly conservative history, but did go NDP in '89 and Liberal in '93

So it's really 7 ridings if we exclude Notley, with Rosendahl's riding being the only current NDP seat, though an uphill slog to retain against any united conservative party. 5 are guaranteed NDP losses, the other 2 are only very likely losses.


It is really interesting to note that all 21 ridings in/around Edmonton (per Wikipedia's classification) went over 50% NDP (13 over 60%, and well over in many cases).

Joe Ceci Calgary Fort - 49.8%
Shannon Phillips Lethbridge West - 59.3%
Quite a few others across the province over 40%, but only a few are close to 50.

It is conceivable that NDP will sweep Edmonton again, and win almost nowhere else. I hope that enough other Albertans will realize that the province did not actually fall apart over these past 4 years, though.

[V]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Okay, let's tone down that rhetoric a bit... "devoted his life to public service"

Haha, did you just tell White Out to tone down the rhetoric?

I guess we can all dream...