03-27-2023, 10:46 AM
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#7801
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Loves Teh Chat!
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If the NDP swept all the toss-ups (which generally look to be north/northwest Calgary) they wouldn't actually need the deep south suburbs which seem to be pretty safe UCP to eak out a tiny majority:
https://338canada.com/alberta/districts.htm
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03-27-2023, 10:47 AM
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#7802
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#1 Goaltender
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Has anyone created a list of all the crazy thoughts of Danielle Smith yet? I'd love to have a bulleted list to share.
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03-27-2023, 10:48 AM
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#7803
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Torture
If the NDP swept all the toss-ups (which generally look to be north/northwest) they wouldn't actually need the deep south suburbs which seem to be pretty safe UCP to eak out a tiny majority:
https://338canada.com/alberta/districts.htm |
The problem is these forecasts are based on fairly limited polling data at the riding level. We need a detailed Calgary only riding by riding poll to really understand how this will turn out.
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03-27-2023, 10:52 AM
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#7804
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Loves Teh Chat!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fuzz
The problem is these forecasts are based on fairly limited polling data at the riding level. We need a detailed Calgary only riding by riding poll to really understand how this will turn out.
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Yeah, kind of my point though. There's such limited data that when the forecast calls for instance, Calgary-North as UCP, that isn't as safe as it sounds because it's so close and there's barely any data behind it.
Sticking with Calgary-North, the model gives it to UCP but they've got a projection of UCP 46% +/- 8% vs NDP 44% +/- 8% that might as well be a tie. NDP run a good campaign or Smith continuing to say crazy things and UCP supporters change votes or stay home, there's a chance.
Last edited by Torture; 03-27-2023 at 10:58 AM.
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03-27-2023, 11:28 AM
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#7805
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Torture
Yeah, kind of my point though. There's such limited data that when the forecast calls for instance, Calgary-North as UCP, that isn't as safe as it sounds because it's so close and there's barely any data behind it.
Sticking with Calgary-North, the model gives it to UCP but they've got a projection of UCP 46% +/- 8% vs NDP 44% +/- 8% that might as well be a tie. NDP run a good campaign or Smith continuing to say crazy things and UCP supporters change votes or stay home, there's a chance.
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If you look at pretty much any of those Calgary ridings the margin of error is pretty large so basically anything can happen. Most of the projections I have seen over the last little while for Varsity have been NDP but the error is around +/- 8 so a toss up.
Last edited by calgarygeologist; 03-27-2023 at 11:31 AM.
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03-27-2023, 11:29 AM
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#7806
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Income Tax Central
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The Gag on Smitty is not tight enough.
__________________
The Beatings Shall Continue Until Morale Improves!
This Post Has Been Distilled for the Eradication of Seemingly Incurable Sadness.
If you are flammable and have legs, you are never blocking a Fire Exit. - Mitch Hedberg
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03-27-2023, 12:08 PM
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#7807
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 Posted the 6 millionth post! |
Disagree. Let Albertans see who she really is when she's allowed to speak.
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03-27-2023, 12:25 PM
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#7809
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Faust
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But also, because she's insane.
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aaronck,
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Cycling76er,
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Faust,
FLAMESRULE,
FormerPresJamesTaylor,
J pold,
mikephoen,
terryclancy
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03-27-2023, 12:26 PM
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#7810
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Posted the 6 millionth post! |
Quote:
Originally Posted by Faust
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I swear the picture of Smith in the article makes her look way to similar to Sarah Huckabee Sanders.
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03-27-2023, 12:49 PM
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#7811
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evil of fart
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TorqueDog
Only way to change that is to get involved in the political process, really. For the first time ever, I donated to a political party (the NDP) and requested a lawn sign. Hell, I'm even considering volunteering. The UCP are a f-cking disaster, they shouldn't be tasked with running a lemonade stand, never mind a province.
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Yeah, me too. I set up a monthly donation to the ndp. First time participating with my wallet. I'll have to get a lawn sign, too.
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03-27-2023, 02:20 PM
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#7812
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Franchise Player
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Seems like polling has been #### in nearly every election for the last decade.
IMO publishing private polling data should be illegal. IF we want/need polling data, it should be consistent and totally transparent
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03-27-2023, 02:32 PM
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#7813
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#1 Goaltender
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TorqueDog
Only way to change that is to get involved in the political process, really. For the first time ever, I donated to a political party (the NDP) and requested a lawn sign. Hell, I'm even considering volunteering. The UCP are a f-cking disaster, they shouldn't be tasked with running a lemonade stand, never mind a province.
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I've done two weekends of volunteering now and I'd recomment it to anyone who wants to help out in a non-monetary way, also. This has included a couple of door knocking sessions. They don't expect or want us to engage in a debate with anyone but just to let people know about the upcoming election and get a reading on which way they may vote. If they are supporters, we ask whether they want a sign. Piece of cake, really.
ETA: It's also a good way to find out about your candidate in a casual way. There's been enough time during the times I've volunteered to just chat with her and get an understanding of who she is, why she's running, etc.
Last edited by D as in David; 03-27-2023 at 07:00 PM.
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03-27-2023, 06:19 PM
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#7814
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CP Gamemaster
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: The Gary
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Got a door knocker for the first time ever at my place. It was for the NDP candidate. Nice to finally matter to politicians, I guess.
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03-28-2023, 07:31 AM
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#7816
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#1 Goaltender
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: wearing raccoons for boots
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Got that same text. Trying to decide about a response to it or if anyone would actually read it.
And that q...just wow, #### you
May as well ask 'have you quit beating your wife?'
Last edited by puffnstuff; 03-28-2023 at 07:37 AM.
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03-28-2023, 08:30 AM
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#7817
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Quote:
Originally Posted by puffnstuff
Got that same text. Trying to decide about a response to it or if anyone would actually read it.
And that q...just wow, #### you
May as well ask 'have you quit beating your wife?'
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There was a thread on reddit about this sort of thing. A couple people answered that they have been the person on the other side. They said that these are just auto sent in batches. If you reply no then it just gets automatically discarded and nobody sees it. If you reply yes then it gets assigned to someone to actually talk to you.
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03-28-2023, 08:35 AM
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#7818
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Auckland, NZ
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Reply yes, tell them you will vote for them, and then skew their results when you don't.
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03-28-2023, 08:36 AM
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#7819
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Powerplay Quarterback
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Oh, I replied "#### off"... Did I do it wrong?
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03-28-2023, 08:42 AM
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#7820
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Auckland, NZ
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Quote:
Originally Posted by you&me
Oh, I replied "#### off"... Did I do it wrong?
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No my son, you did well. Any response they aren't looking for, no matter how devious or blunt, is righteous in its nobility when telling the UCP to #### off.
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