The Blueprint: Building A Contender

[Poe969]

My point is that the Flames should be open to trading guys like gio and Backlund now or exposing them in the expansion draft. They don't owe it to them to keep them on the team, if a trade makes the team better or opens cap space to improve then they should. Some people make it sound like some guys HAVE to stay on the team.

[Calgary4LIfe]

I don't think you can really think too much of the expansion draft without breaking down your players into 'tiers'.


If you have your 'core' under the protected list, you are ok. If you have one player that you consider vital outside that list WITH what appears to be a significant drop-off, then trade that player. If the drop-off is not severe, with a couple other players either close or looking like they will pass your core piece, then you sit on it and give Seattle the option to pick whomever.



It is going to be tough to trade a guy like Backlund to a team who also will have to use their protection slot on him and push another asset down the chain. You are better off making a deal with Seattle.


At any rate, what this team needs to figure out is if they are contenders or not. If there is just one or two pieces missing, or if the coaching is substandard and not getting the most out of the lineup, or what. You have essentially 2 seasons to 'go for it' before salaries drastically change and force a big move anyway.


One thing I will say, however, is that IF the Flames move into a rebuild now, they are very well positioned. I stated during the last couple of seasons in the Iginla era that this team was already 'sort of' rebuilding - they stopped spending any real assets on vets, and they didn't draft for need (Jankowski being the example - he was viewed as a potential high-skill centre at the time, but one that would take a number of seasons to realize, not a prospect that would be coming into the lineup sooner). Their drafting and development program was expanding as well.


Right now, I 100% trust the scouting department to find players for the team through the draft. I remember someone on HF made a thread comparing all 31 teams over the last 'x' amount of seasons (I forgot exactly how many), and the Flames ranked very near the top (once again, I completely forgot exactly where, but I am going to guess ~top 5 or so).


I trust them to continue finding players to feed into the system and graduate onto the team over time as well, while this team is trying to 'contend'. If it fails, well, you have a legitimately talented prospect pool already - maybe no 'franchise types', but good depth already to kickstart a rebuild and acquire blue-chip talent.


Flames just need to avoid terrible contracts. Way too many buyouts over the years, and high-priced under-performing contracts. This takes away time from development for guys like Bennett, Kylington, etc., so it becomes a double-edged sword. They also spent way too many assets on the wrong players - goalies, Hamonic, etc. That hurts in the long-run. Flames were not ready to be contenders, but they spent like a contender.



I am not sure how they will fill Brodie's shoes this upcoming season. Hopefully they will, but I am also on the fence that while having a top defence is better than middle-of-the-pack defence, you don't always need it if you have a good coach that can implement a sound system (see Sutter, 2004, Islanders, 2020, arguably Pens in their cup years, etc).



I am glad that I am not the GM, because I am not sure which direction I would go.



First thing I would try is to remove all the overpriced contracts that I could to make room. Maybe the 'mix' isn't the problem, and perhaps it is just that this team is too easy to shut-down? Give it more weapons or change the weapons. I am no fan of Taylor Hall, but if you can sign him for free, that's a a big change to your lineup and allows for easier match-ups for you.


That means Lucic and Ryan are expendable (well, duh with Lucic obviously). I like them both, but this is a cap world and you can't keep players around just because you like them. They are both effective in different ways, but 5.25 million for three more seasons of Lucic getting 20-odd points (but also providing much needed intangibles, but still) is expensive. Ditto for a 4th liner making 3.125. Obviously Ryan wouldn't be a difficult contract to move, and I do actually like him and feel he makes an impact, but he is now on the 4th line making that much. You just can't have that on a cap team.


I don't know how much it will cost to unload Lucic for a serviceable depth defencemen or depth 4th liner on a cheap deal - probably starts with a 1st. That's painful...



Backlund to me is not a problem. Do I wish that he was pushed down to 3rd line centre? Definitely, but only because that would mean that somehow this team is elite down the middle. Backlund by every metric is a 2nd line centre. Actually, let me restate that - Backlund by every counting stat is a 2nd line centre - he produces at a 2nd line centre rate. He doesn't produce as a "2nd line Malkin", but he is solidly in the 2nd line centre average around the league in scoring. However, I argue that he OUTPRODUCES most 2nd line centres in the league when you factor-in how he is utilized - his defensive zone starts, his quality of competition, etc. Some of the toughest minutes in the league, period - tougher minutes than "perennial Selke winner Bergeron". So, no, Backlund is not a guy that I think the Flames should move on from. If you do, your other lines have to start in the defensive zone more often, and end up having a tougher time producing offensively. Backlund is a guy that you most definitely can win with.


If you can renegotiate Jankowski's deal cheaper than it is now (or even the same...) I think you do it for 1-2 years. Yep, Jankowski didn't have a good season, but he has 2 previous seasons where he has been both productive and helpful to team wins. One season early on in a player's career shouldn't completely write him off. Now if he wants more money on the other hand, then it is a considerably different conversation and you let him walk.


Don't pay for depth. Period.



If you are rebuilding, don't sign long-term expensive UFA contracts. Period. Not unless a superstar in his mid 20's decides he wants to sign with you. Then you would obviously be stupid not to - but no more 30+ players looking for a retirement pay-cheque. Don't spend assets on guys you aren't going to keep long-term in trying to fill holes - no more 1 season fillers in any position. If you are going to use assets to fill holes, they have to be low cost assets unless you are acquiring promising players before their prime. Even then, spend assets on drafting players, not trading for them until you think this team is kicking and screaming to get into the playoffs. Don't push them into the playoffs kicking and screaming. Make them push you to trade.

[Flash Walken]

As interesting as the premise of this thread is, it should deeply troubling that flames management don't appear to be doing any of the components proposed in the original post.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

Flames just need to avoid terrible contracts. Way too many buyouts over the years, and high-priced under-performing contracts. This takes away time from development for guys like Bennett, Kylington, etc., so it becomes a double-edged sword. They also spent way too many assets on the wrong players - goalies, Hamonic, etc. That hurts in the long-run. Flames were not ready to be contenders, but they spent like a contender.

In the cap era, this is absolutely vital. Nothing limits a team's options like anchor contracts.

That is why a trade for OEL would be a massive mistake.

Build your team through the draft. Acquire picks when you can. And move out expensive players, don't bring in more of them.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

As interesting as the premise of this thread is, it should deeply troubling that flames management don't appear to be doing any of the components proposed in the original post.

Well they are drafting better but not accumulating picks...or doing the other things really.

Draft better & Accumulate Picks: Half Check
Know when to move declining assets: Nope
Don’t move long term assets for short term fixes: Nope
Fill the roster with undervalued young players with potential instead of declining veterans: Nope

So yeah...batting like 12.5% here.

And the part that’s even more concerning is that even with that Treliving is still like a top 3 GM in Flames history, and I have no faith the ownership group could actually find a replacement to do a better job.

[Winsor_Pilates]

What Blueprint are the current Flames on?

-Make the playoffs and anything can happen
-be deep on the blue line
-be truculant
-create competition in goal by not having any true #1

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Well they are drafting better but not accumulating picks...or doing the other things really.

Draft better & Accumulate Picks: Half Check
Know when to move declining assets: Nope
Don’t move long term assets for short term fixes: Nope
Fill the roster with undervalued young players with potential instead of declining veterans: Nope

So yeah...batting like 12.5% here.

And the part that’s even more concerning is that even with that Treliving is still like a top 3 GM in Flames history, and I have no faith the ownership group could actually find a replacement to do a better job.

Dube Andersson, Kylington, Mangiapane, Valimaki, Jankowski and Bennett all got opportunity and patience with the Flames

The declining Veterans would be Rieder, Gustaffsson, Ryan, Mike Stone, Quine and maybe Forbort. Rather than declining veterans the fill in players with the Flames are NHL replacement players.

Brodie and Hamonic are solid NHL players and might be on the cusp of becoming declining veterans but there is no team in league that would play Kylington ahead of them.



Try to come up with with "undervalued young players with potential" that are being held up.

Yelesin 4 NHL games in his first season in North America?

Gawdwin ?

Phillips?

Czarnik was a bad signing but Dube and Mangiapane did not lose more than a few games to him and yet he put up the best AHL scoring stats of any of the Flames AHL prospects.

----

If you want to say that the Flames did not draft enough NHL level players, by trading away draft picks that is totally valid for the half check but they did not block anyone with declining veterans.

[ricardodw]

I would like to see how the Flames could stick to these basic rules of team management an keep the team competitive over the next 2 seasons.

Do they replace Brodie / Hamonic with a UFA who will pretty much be getting a contract that runs past them being 33-34?

Do they go with

Gio Andersson
Hanifin Valimaki
Mackey Kylington
Yelsin

That is a very wishful lineup. If any of the top-4 get injured or even if Gio's decline continues as the 2019-20 rate the Flames will be writing off the season.

On the plus side if these guys played well enough to be a middle of the pack NHL level defense then the Flames would have cap space to extend Tkachuk and Valimaki.

Are the long term #1 defense pairing Hanifin - Andersson?


So what do the Flames do to get a real potential #1 d-man to replace Gio and stay within the common sense Building a contender rules.

Could they sign Pietrangelo for 12x3? 11 x 4?

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

As interesting as the premise of this thread is, it should deeply troubling that flames management don't appear to be doing any of the components proposed in the original post.

Interesting to me that many of the moves that Flames “were in on” likely involved moving draft picks out. Same with the moves they actually made. I think it’s safe to say the moves made this off season will be focused on making the club better next year to the detriment of the future.

I’d like to add to the OP that buyouts should be rules out as an option. In hockey you’re taught to eat the puck in the corner of your zone if you can’t safely skate it out or make an outlet pass. Same with a bad contract. Get it off the books as soon as you can, don’t extend it out.

[Roof-Daddy]

Method #1 - Pay $500 million to buy a contender
Method #2 - Look at what Flames have done for 30 years & don't do that

[VladtheImpaler]

Obviously, the lion's share of the blame for the "short-termism" falls on the owners, which is puzzling to me, since they all made their money outside of hockey by doing the exact opposite. Is it constantly overvaluing what you have, so they always think they are just "one piece away"? Is it the fear of becoming irrelevant in the market? Do they think they owe it to the "community" to always be "competitive"? Is it that everyone in this organization has been measuring themselves against the Oilers since 80s?
The blueprint is actually not that complicated, so what's the problem? The media and the fans here are very docile; it is not like the city is a pressure cooker akin to Montreal or Toronto. I think you can pretty much do what you want with little back-fire...

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by VladtheImpaler

Obviously, the lion's share of the blame for the "short-termism" falls on the owners, which is puzzling to me, since they all made their money outside of hockey by doing the exact opposite. Is it constantly overvaluing what you have, so they always think they are just "one piece away"? Is it the fear of becoming irrelevant in the market? Do they think they owe it to the "community" to always be "competitive"? Is it that everyone in this organization has been measuring themselves against the Oilers since 80s?
The blueprint is actually not that complicated, so what's the problem? The media and the fans here are very docile; it is not like the city is a pressure cooker akin to Montreal or Toronto. I think you can pretty much do what you want with little back-fire...

I know nothing about what happens in the Flames back office but I am not 100% convinced it is on ownership. I still believe the right hockey operations team could find success here and they just haven’t been very good at hiring the right person to run it.

Your points are 100% correct. It just shouldn’t be that hard to have some patience in this market.

[VladtheImpaler]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

I know nothing about what happens in the Flames back office but I am not 100% convinced it is on ownership. I still believe the right hockey operations team could find success here and they just haven’t been very good at hiring the right person to run it.

Your points are 100% correct. It just shouldn’t be that hard to have some patience in this market.

But I also find it hard to buy that every GM is an idiot.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by VladtheImpaler

But I also find it hard to buy that every GM is an idiot.

Well there is that, although not like these guys go on to be great GM’s elsewhere.

Still if your boss is telling you to trade picks for players to help now, how do you not trade for better players than Hamonic or Lazar.

[Hackey]

In the new NHL you really have a small window to win because of how fast young players get paid huge money. Vancouver looked like they were emerging these playoffs but as soon as Hughes, Petterson, potentially Markstrom get new deals their growth as a team is going to really halt. Similar to how Toronto has basically peaked because they are really limited on how they can improve their team now. The Jet's looked like an up and coming contender a few years ago now their a bubble team. Colorado will have to shed salary soon once Makar, Landeskog, and Mackinnon all get new deals.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Hackey

In the new NHL you really have a small window to win because of how fast young players get paid huge money. Vancouver looked like they were emerging these playoffs but as soon as Hughes, Petterson, potentially Markstrom get new deals their growth as a team is going to really halt. Similar to how Toronto has basically peaked because they are really limited on how they can improve their team now. The Jet's looked like an up and coming contender a few years ago now their a bubble team. Colorado will have to shed salary soon once Makar, Landeskog, and Mackinnon all get new deals.

This isn't true.

As long as you continue to have contributing players on ELCs you'll be just fine.

It means making hard decisions on players but it's easy to replace a player like Alzner when you've drafted John Carlson.

The leafs haven't come close to peaking. They will have to move salary, in which they will take back picks and prospects, to start the cycle all over again. Meanwhile a player like Nick Robertson is basically just waiting for a roster spot. And the leafs have 11(ELEVEN) picks in the upcoming draft.

Colorado will probably have to trade Erik Johnson in the next year or two but if Byram and Makar are their top pairing of the future, that decision is easy.

Paying good players big dollars isn't a problem. Playing average or bad players above average money is the culprit.

The Flames paid 3.3 million last year for michael stone and troy brouwer to combine for 33 games.

[VladtheImpaler]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Well there is that, although not like these guys go on to be great GM’s elsewhere.

Still if your boss is telling you to trade picks for players to help now, how do you not trade for better players than Hamonic or Lazar.

True. You cannot blame that, or the goalies, on the owners.

[Hackey]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

This isn't true.

As long as you continue to have contributing players on ELCs you'll be just fine.

It means making hard decisions on players but it's easy to replace a player like Alzner when you've drafted John Carlson.

The leafs haven't come close to peaking. They will have to move salary, in which they will take back picks and prospects, to start the cycle all over again. Meanwhile a player like Nick Robertson is basically just waiting for a roster spot. And the leafs have 11(ELEVEN) picks in the upcoming draft.

Colorado will probably have to trade Erik Johnson in the next year or two but if Byram and Makar are their top pairing of the future, that decision is easy.

Paying good players big dollars isn't a problem. Playing average or bad players above average money is the culprit.

The Flames paid 3.3 million last year for michael stone and troy brouwer to combine for 33 games.

I disagree. You're right you need players contributing on ELC's but that's why the window is small. Right now is the Avalanches best window. It will only become harder and harder to get better as Makar, Landeskog, Mackinnon all start to get paid what they deserve. It will be harder to surround them with a well-rounded team. They are on bargain contracts currently and that would give their team the greatest chance at success. Next year is their year as they have everyone signed and cap space. The following year when Makar and Landeskog get huge raises, and they have to start planning to pay Mackinnon the largest contract in NHL history, it's going to be difficult to keep that roster together. I'm not saying their window will close but it likely will never be more open than next year and it will start to get increasingly more difficult quick.

11 picks for the leafs doesn't mean much unless you hit on someone who can jump in and make an impact fast. Odds are most of those guys never become impact players and don't really move the needle much more than what they have now.

I'm not saying paying big dollars to your top players is the problem. It's inevitable and you need star players to be elite. But the fact that players make huge dollars in a short period of time makes it very difficult to keep a team together. When I refer to a teams window I guess I more so mean their window with the greatest probability. For the Avs I see that as next year. After that they likely will have many tough decisions moving forward.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Hackey

I disagree. You're right you need players contributing on ELC's but that's why the window is small. Right now is the Avalanches best window. It will only become harder and harder to get better as Makar, Landeskog, Mackinnon all start to get paid what they deserve.
It will be harder to surround them with a well-rounded team. They are on bargain contracts currently and that would give their team the greatest chance at success. Next year is their year as they have everyone signed and cap space. The following year when Makar and Landeskog get huge raises, and they have to start planning to pay Mackinnon the largest contract in NHL history, it's going to be difficult to keep that roster together. I'm not saying their window will close but it likely will never be more open than next year and it will start to get increasingly more difficult quick.

This may or may not be the case. Is their window more open with Makar as a Sophomore or is it more open if he's a scott neidermayer/brian leetch tier elite defender ages 23-32?

This may be their most open window in terms of cap space, but unused capspace suggests non-capitalized talent space.

11 picks for the leafs doesn't mean much unless you hit on someone who can jump in and make an impact fast. Odds are most of those guys never become impact players and don't really move the needle much more than what they have now.

See, that wont play out for several years. The picks they've made in the preceding 4 years are what's going to pay off in the next 1-3 years. According to bingo's numbers, the leafs have made some of the most draft picks in the league over the last 5 years. They might have an entire draft that's a dud, but it's difficult to do that over multiple drafts frankly.

Even the Flames manage to find a diamond every now and again. Look at the difference adding Mangiapane to the lineup has made for Calgary to see a local example of what i'm talking about.

Look at Dallas' depth compared to that of the Flames to see that drafting doesn't just benefit you at the top of the lineup. Their 4th line blew calgary's out of the water, and their most expensive 4th line player was a free agent signing at 2.4. Dickinson and Faksa may not have delivered as 'First round draft picks", but having cost controlled, team controlled players through your lineup extends big time cap savings. The Flames fourth line has derek ryan at 3.25 and two PTOs because the Flames literally have no one in the system capable of stepping into that role to do that job. You can pay andrew cogliano 3.25 to play 3rd and 4th line minutes if you've got roope hintz and gurianov giving you 2nd/3rd line minutes for a combined 1.7m.

You dont need to always draft 40 goal scorers, drafting a Kulak to play bottom pairing minutes for you at 8-900k is worth it in order to avoid dealing 4th round picks for guys like fantenberg and forbort.

You don't need to hit on 11 picks, either, you need to hit on one or two. And considering the leafs core group is largely assembled, they don't need to be home run picks either, they just need to be drafting middle six players and #3-8 level defenders which are easier to come by.

I'm not saying paying big dollars to your top players is the problem. It's inevitable and you need star players to be elite. But the fact that players make huge dollars in a short period of time makes it very difficult to keep a team together. When I refer to a teams window I guess I more so mean their window with the greatest probability. For the Avs I see that as next year. After that they likely will have many tough decisions moving forward.

Good teams don't prioritize keeping a team together, they prioritize keeping a working core group together.

That means trading guys like Kapanen for a 1st round pick, or letting Alzner walk away, or trading Phillip Grubauer and a buyout cap hit for a 2nd round pick to the Avs.

Tough decisions get a lot easier when you have guys ready to possibly step in and replace them. Like my example with Nick Robertson on the leafs, they essentially have a prospect good enough to play but no roster spot. So they moved Kapanen, got a 1st for him, and now have a roster spot for an ELC player who is tracking to be pretty incredible.

When you have great players, not good but great, they can carry your franchise through 10-15 years of turmoil and keep you at or near the top of the league. A 2nd round pick the bruins made in 2003 is still driving that roster.

A team's window exists for however long they can go suitably plugging holes in the lineup with drafted players instead of free agents, and periodically that means trading away good players for picks and prospects to restart that cycle.

The Avs might very well screw it up by trading away valuable picks and signing bad contracts, but it doesn't have to be that way and the Avs don't appear to be susceptible to that based on how they've built the team thus far.

Considering colorado made 5 picks in the first 3 rounds last draft, including 4th overall, it's likely that in 2-4 years time they'll have at least one legitimate prospect graduating into their lineup that will be giving them top level contributions for bargain basement prices.

[djsFlames]

1) Proven Coach. Yes Brad, you're going to have to go for the "flashy" option for a change. It's worth it.

2) Give up some of our winger talent to acquire multiple center prospects. Center-out is the new philosophy.

3) Let the current kids develop with opportunities in every situation, even if there are growing pains. That means giving guys like Kylington more of a look over guys like Stone. Otherwise how do we know what we have? Depth vets aren't going to improve.

4) No more albatross free agency signings, with the exception of a top line talent like Hall. No 5+ MM for any one slotting into the middle six. Keep it to cheap periphery adds. They're much more likely to play to their value.

5) Patience. Savvy hockey trades a la Hamilton/Lindholm are good, sending firsts for Hamonics is bad. Trade to get younger if you do, only splurge for big name vets when you're established as a competitive playoff team.

6) Try to entice a goalie of the ilk of Markstrom/Bishop/Lehner when possible. There will be good ones available. We have to put our chips in for that kind of tender, they can bring it into their mid thirties in a lot of cases.

7) Be patient and hang on to your high draft picks for a few consecutive years. Add picks wherever possible in this time.

8) Eventually, become actually, formidably, good.