09-03-2020, 04:16 PM
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#1
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Calgary, AB
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The Blueprint: Building A Contender
Across pretty much every thread this off-season there has been some great discussion about what is the right way to build a true contending roster. There have been lots of competing principles around if it's better to have a scorched earth rebuild vs retooling, focusing on trades vs drafting etc. But really there is no one answer on the right strategy to build a contender.
However to me there are 4 clear things a team needs to do well in order to build a contender, and remain in contention for a long period of time. IMO it doesn't matter if you try to remain competitive while doing a re-tool, or going full scorched earth with a full rebuild, unless you have a management staff that can execute on these four things.
It's a different sport, and I hate to say it because I hate the team, but it's a bit of the New England Patriots blueprint. Draft Well, Accumulate Picks, Know When to Sell High, Identify Targets to Buy Low, and they don't move high end picks (top 2 rounds) for short term fixes.
1) Draft Well:
Doesn't matter if it's a top 10 pick, or if you're drafting in the 20s every season. You need to be able to add at least 2-3 players each draft that will contribute to your team. Of course the more picks you have, the easier this is to achieve, but if you have lots of picks and still suck at drafting it doesn't help you.
This is where teams like Tampa Bay, Washington, etc have succeeded, and why teams like Buffalo/Edmonton/Florida have struggled even with high picks. Having a top 5 pick doesn't matter if you don't hit on any other picks in your draft.
2)Age curves are real and you need to know when to cut ties with assets:
This is where teams needs to be honest with themselves. Even if you are a contender or a team that wants to compete you need to know when to move on from assets or upcoming UFAs.
One thing I've come to the realization of is that unless the piece is a true top end elite talent you probably aren't wise to extend a player at 28/29 for 7-8 years. So you need to identify pieces that might buck the trend and are truly long term solutions (Guys like Crosby, Ovechkin, Malkin, etc were able to do this), vs guys that are on the wrong side of the age curve. Lots of guys might still look great at 28 but really they don't usually look good by the time they are 31. Benn, Perry, Voracek, JVR, Subban are all good examples of guys who look great at 28 and then aren't nearly the same players at 31.
3) Don't move Long Term assets for Short Term Assets / Non-Core Pieces:
This should be the general rule. It's one thing to move some assets for short term pieces when you're a true contender (top 5 team), or looking to make an actual run, but another thing to do it just to sneak into the playoffs. Honestly this is the biggest mistake the Flames made IMO.
Moving picks for a guy like Hamilton is fine, since he's meant to be a long term core piece. But moving multiple high end picks for 3 years of Travis Hamonic early in a contention window is ridiculous. Same principles in moving 2nd/3rd rounders for guys like Elliott, Stone, Smith, etc who were never long term answers. Those guys end up aging out and leaving the roster. And you don't have pieces coming up to replace them because you traded those picks to acquire the aging veterans to start with.
4) Don't Fill Out Roster with declining Veterans, but buy low on undervalued players with upside.
This one is tough to actually pull off in the NHL but each offseason there are always a couple of high picks or previously heralded prospects that move just because they either didn't fit in on the old team or because they were held back in their role by guys ahead of them on the roster. Colorado did a great job with it this offseason with Burakovsky and Nichushkin who've been great for them. Washington did it by buying low on Brett Connolly on their cup winning roster.
Not quite the same thing but even the Blues kind of fit into this criteria by buying low on a 26 year old ROR who's value was at an all time low.
So what are your thoughts? What do you think the keys are to building a contender?
Last edited by SuperMatt18; 09-03-2020 at 04:19 PM.
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09-03-2020, 04:37 PM
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#2
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Franchise Player
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Build down the middle. Stockpile centres and goalies.
Don’t trade 1st and 2nd round picks if you aren’t entering the season as a Top-5 Cup Contender.
Don’t spend real assets to bolster the blue line.
Don’t sign anyone July 1. Ever. You can get the same production or better from PTOs signed on the eve of the regular season. Not one person in this city has a bad thing to say about Kris Versteeg.
Hire a real coach. We had a real coach for two seasons this century- we went to the Finals and won the division. May be something to that.
Last edited by GreenLantern2814; 09-03-2020 at 07:24 PM.
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09-03-2020, 06:06 PM
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#3
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Thunder Bay Ontario
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Don't fall in love with players. It doesn't matter how good of a guy they are, how much great work he does for the community or what charity work he does. Don't keep a player because he's the captain or was drafted by the Flames and spent his whole career here. Keep players because they make the team better, if they don't then trade them. Change coaches if there is no success, goalie coach is a great example. Don't let owners run the team and set the mandate of "do whatever ot takes to make the playoffs". Do what is best for the team.
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Fan of the Flames, where being OK has become OK.
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09-03-2020, 06:10 PM
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#4
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Van Island
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814
Build down the middle. Stockpile centres and goalies.
Don’t trade 1st and 2nd round picks if you aren’t entering the season as a Top-5 Cup Contender. Don’t spend real assets to bolster the blue line.
Don’t sign anyone July 1. Ever. You can get the same production or better from PTOs signed on the eve of the regular season. Not one person in this city has a bad thing to say about Kris Versteeg.
Hire a real coach. We had a real coach for two seasons this century- we went to the Finals and won the division. May be something to that.
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Done.
Next question?
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09-03-2020, 06:17 PM
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#5
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Franchise Player
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When it comes to free agents, I'm a fan of July 2nd. One year contracts for under one million, abound.
__________________
"We don't even know who our best player is yet. It could be any one of us at this point." - Peter LaFleur, player/coach, Average Joe's Gymnasium
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09-03-2020, 06:32 PM
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#6
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Van Island
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Harry Lime
When it comes to free agents, I'm a fan of July 2nd. One year contracts for under one million, abound.
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Wasn’t Neal a July second signing??
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09-03-2020, 06:42 PM
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#7
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Vancouver
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Flexibility is the key and lack of flexibility is a major reason why some good teams can never get over the hump to become great teams. Progression is rarely linear and the team needs to be malleable in order to adapt as other teams around them are also adapting.
Limit the number of NMC/NTC clauses. Have some kind of internal rule and stick to it.
Leave some cap cushion at all times to be able to swing deals when it is advantageous. Some will disagree, but cap space is an asset IMO. Being a team with some space often puts you in a buyers market when other teams are cornered. A team that isn't a Cup contender, does not need to be right at the salary cap.
To that point, avoid buy outs at all cost. Nothing annoys me more than dead cap space. Buy outs are the definition of mortgaging the future.
Simply put, you can't handcuff your team from making tweaks to the roster during the the time they are good, but not yet a contender. You have to keep in mind that every decision may have an opportunity cost attached to it. A lot of the Flames lack of improving I believe is at least partly due to contract clauses and inability to take back salary.
__________________
"A pessimist thinks things can't get any worse. An optimist knows they can."
Last edited by FlamesAddiction; 09-03-2020 at 08:59 PM.
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09-03-2020, 08:32 PM
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#8
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: Seattle, WA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction
Limit the number of NMC/NTC clauses. Have some kind of internal rule and stick to it.
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This is going to be tougher and tougher in a flat cap world. Players/Agents value stability and you can't compensate it for it with AAV, it kinda ties the GM's hands.
I'm not advocating to have 15 roster players with movement restrictions, but having some arbitrary rule just because causes other issues.
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It's only game. Why you heff to be mad?
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09-03-2020, 08:57 PM
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#9
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Van Island
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Sign everyone until they are 30, trade them when they reach 28.
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09-03-2020, 11:55 PM
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#10
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Crash and Bang Winger
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Smoking hole in the ground
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Poe969
Don't fall in love with players. It doesn't matter how good of a guy they are, how much great work he does for the community or what charity work he does. Don't keep a player because he's the captain or was drafted by the Flames and spent his whole career here. Keep players because they make the team better, if they don't then trade them.
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I have to disagree with this to some degree. In general it's good management, but you want to avoid making moves that will A) piss off your other players or B) make guys not want to play for you, without good reason. It's a business, but it's not just a business.
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09-04-2020, 12:08 AM
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#11
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MrMike
Wasn’t Neal a July second signing??
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I thought Neal was a late signing. Like he was one of the last big names to sign and Tre didn’t even get a deal on it.
__________________
Calgary Flames, PLEASE GO TO THE NET! AND SHOOT THE PUCK! GENERATING OFFENSE IS NOT DIFFICULT! SKATE HARD, SHOOT HARD, CRASH THE NET HARD!
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09-04-2020, 01:49 AM
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#12
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Scoring Winger
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Great topic and some nice framework. Reading it, I just kept thinking, I hope Treliving shares these sentiments.
I would add 2 things. You need to be patient with your rebuild. Many of the items above require more patience. Not signing that extra vet to a big contract on July 1st because you figure there’s good odds he will curve out. That also means a potential hole/weakness in the lineup for 1-2 years until a prospect is ready. And don’t rush prospects in.
Second, you have to have “enough” players in your top 6 and d that have “it”. “It”, the extra drive, focus and ability to get up for big games, playoff games, and games that should be winnable but you know you need the points from those “easier” wins. “It”, the ability to score big goals or make big plays when it is most needed and to close out games. This playoffs, Sam Bennett demonstrated he has “It”. Tkachuk has “it”. Nathan Mackinnon has “it”. Between your top 6 forwards and your top 3 D, you need 4-5 players that have “it”. Having players down the lineup with “it” is also very helpful and maybe even necessary but they aren’t going to swing the game or series in your favor. If you don’t have enough guys with “it”, you need a coach that finds ways to make them have “it” on a regular basis. You need a D Sutter, a Tortorella. If you have the players and the coach then the coach can really push that core to the limit without breaking them. Too many highly skilled guys in the mix without “it”? Then you have to move the one(s) the bring you back some ridiculous value in picks and draft well with them.
You can’t teach players to have “it”. You can’t practice or condition more to get it. They have it or they don’t. Without enough of it, your pool of talented players is no good. E=NG anyone?
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09-04-2020, 04:08 AM
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#13
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Thunder Bay Ontario
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Madrox
I have to disagree with this to some degree. In general it's good management, but you want to avoid making moves that will A) piss off your other players or B) make guys not want to play for you, without good reason. It's a business, but it's not just a business.
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Ask everyone on the team and every Flames fan in the world: would you rather have the Flames win the Stanley Cup next year or have Gio and Backlund on the roster knowing you won't win the Cup?
People put winning ahead of hurt feelings.
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Fan of the Flames, where being OK has become OK.
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09-04-2020, 06:50 AM
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#14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Willi Plett
Great topic and some nice framework. Reading it, I just kept thinking, I hope Treliving shares these sentiments.
I would add 2 things. You need to be patient with your rebuild. Many of the items above require more patience. Not signing that extra vet to a big contract on July 1st because you figure there’s good odds he will curve out. That also means a potential hole/weakness in the lineup for 1-2 years until a prospect is ready. And don’t rush prospects in.
Second, you have to have “enough” players in your top 6 and d that have “it”. “It”, the extra drive, focus and ability to get up for big games, playoff games, and games that should be winnable but you know you need the points from those “easier” wins. “It”, the ability to score big goals or make big plays when it is most needed and to close out games. This playoffs, Sam Bennett demonstrated he has “It”. Tkachuk has “it”. Nathan Mackinnon has “it”. Between your top 6 forwards and your top 3 D, you need 4-5 players that have “it”. Having players down the lineup with “it” is also very helpful and maybe even necessary but they aren’t going to swing the game or series in your favor. If you don’t have enough guys with “it”, you need a coach that finds ways to make them have “it” on a regular basis. You need a D Sutter, a Tortorella. If you have the players and the coach then the coach can really push that core to the limit without breaking them. Too many highly skilled guys in the mix without “it”? Then you have to move the one(s) the bring you back some ridiculous value in picks and draft well with them.
You can’t teach players to have “it”. You can’t practice or condition more to get it. They have it or they don’t. Without enough of it, your pool of talented players is no good. E=NG anyone?
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Does Tkachuk have “it”? Good interview. Nice hat flip. 5 points in 15 playoff games
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09-04-2020, 07:20 AM
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#15
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Apr 2014
Location: Indiana
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The OP is great.
I would just add that prospect and player development is extremely important.
Probably even more important than drafting, signing, and trading.
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09-04-2020, 08:02 AM
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#16
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Franchise Player
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Good planning. Good coaching. Good play. Luck.
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09-04-2020, 12:00 PM
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#18
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Hamilton, Ontario
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Poe969
Ask everyone on the team and every Flames fan in the world: would you rather have the Flames win the Stanley Cup next year or have Gio and Backlund on the roster knowing you won't win the Cup?
People put winning ahead of hurt feelings.
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Or maybe you don’t win the cup next year, or even make the playoffs. It’s not a A or B equation. If the idea that moving Gio and Backlund will result in raising the Stanley Cup next year then I say the managements self awareness is a bigger problem then cutting ties with assets that add to the origination
Sometimes the return doesn’t equal the value the assets adds to your team currently. Sometimes being cut throat actually results in a player walking out in the sunset. It’s just packaged in a pretty bow for the public to see
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2018 OHL CHAMPIONS
2022 OHL CHAMPIONS
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09-04-2020, 12:50 PM
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#19
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#1 Goaltender
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Isn’t it pretty simple at this point?
Elite #1 Centers - Look at every Cup winning team since the lockout and tell me what they all have in common? Elite centers, or at the very least an elite 1-2 punch. If my #1 center is better than your #1 center, my odds of beating you to 4 wins seems a lot better.
Elite #1 Defenseman - Much like the point I made just above. But watching Heiskanen, Makar, Hughes, Hedman, Theodore and etc making huge impacts for their respective teams this post season gives me an new appreciation for how elite rover defensemen can affect a game and a series.
Obviously more comes into play in regards to depth and talent and will and etc. But starting off with one or if your franchise is lucky enough, two of these foundational blocks has to be a nice feeling. It’s just a great equalizer when you have elite, game breaking ability from 2 premier positions.
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09-04-2020, 01:59 PM
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#20
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Crash and Bang Winger
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Smoking hole in the ground
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Poe969
Ask everyone on the team and every Flames fan in the world: would you rather have the Flames win the Stanley Cup next year or have Gio and Backlund on the roster knowing you won't win the Cup?
People put winning ahead of hurt feelings.
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Players generally do too, but there's hurt feelings, and then there's feeling like you screwed a guy. When the Flames traded Ference after he signed a 3 year extension, before it had even come into effect, what do you think that did in the locker room? How many players that heard about that moved the Flames down their list of teams they would want to play for? Sometimes a move that makes you better on paper hurts your organization overall.
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