Flames players analytics data

[Psytic]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

The stats would follow the same roller coaster that the standings do. They are just as vulnerable to good year/bad year, hot/cold goaltending, who you play with (for individuals), etc

If that's all we wanted to analyze why even have this thread for individual players. We can go check plus, minus and points on NHL.com going by your logic. Data visualization is so much more interesting to look at and provides more indepth analysis that the average person can understand.

Not saying you're wrong if you want to go look at Nhl.com and aren't interested in more indepth stats. Not saying you're wrong if you want to go export the Excel and tabulate your own stats yourself either. I just personally enjoy these type of visualizations and would enjoy more of it. It explains the "Why" of the equation not just the end result and any layman like me can kind of understand the "Why" of it because its visualized.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by united

All right some quick requests:


The marvelous Elias Lindholm:

Spoiler!

#1C on the 2021-22 Stanley Cup winning Calgary Flames, Jack Eichel?

Spoiler!

So Lindholm improving just a bit is the same as Eichel? Maybe just getting some shelter from the other teams top players.

So Lindholm and a prospect and taking on the extra cap should be all the Flames offer for Eichel.

Or are these cards bogus?

[edslunch]

How many wins does a team of replacement players get? I’m curious if it’s just a relative number or there is absolute scale as well.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

So Lindholm improving just a bit is the same as Eichel? Maybe just getting some shelter from the other teams top players.

So Lindholm and a prospect and taking on the extra cap should be all the Flames offer for Eichel.

Or are these cards bogus?

Did you read post 56?

I suggest you do that. Improving from 88 to 95 (noting that Eichel’s 20-21 was not up to par, as well) is not ‘just a bit’

[DeluxeMoustache]

I hadn’t thought to look for Kylington and then in the other thread his name was worked in to a trade proposal

Looks like when Kylington cleared waivers they took a look at him too

I am not surprised by the numbers. He has some raw talent and I look forward to seeing if Darryl can help develop him

https://twitter.com/user/status/1349048414638645254

[1qqaaz]

Is Connor Mackey straight up better than Kylington?

[Fourteen FTW]

Just wanna say thanks for the thread. Good stuff here.

[Redrum]

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

Is Connor Mackey straight up better than Kylington?

Maybe whichever one comes out on top offensively right off the bat. I mean, defensively neither are like...Nurse bad, but could evolve in their own end at least a bit.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Did you read post 56?

I suggest you do that. Improving from 88 to 95 (noting that Eichel’s 20-21 was not up to par, as well) is not ‘just a bit’

I suggest that you go back to post 56. Read along the bottom axis - 88 then go along the bottom axis to 95 then note how small the GAR/60 rises over that small distance.

The concept of getting Eichel is that he is supposed to be at 100% ..

I find it interesting that Johnny Hockey has a 91% QOC and Eichel some how has a sheltered 64% (Lindholm 99%). The eye test sees the other teams trying to put out their top line (Mackinnon and Schiefele) against Monahan /Gaudreau and the Flames trying to avoid this. How does Eichel get away with not getting head to head with the best players?

[DeluxeMoustache]

^ I’m not sure what you’re going for. Per60 stats multiplied out by ice time make a difference

As for QoC, it’s just data. Go to natural stat trick and you can see the breakdown of TOI for every player against every other player in the league. It’s aggregated and that’s the basis for QoC. The opposition is what it is

What I do know is that Buffalo is an awful team that is a perpetual bottom dweller and hasn’t made the playoffs in 10 years

I am not in the room for game planning but maybe opposing coaches feel the need to zero in on matching against Eichel because the key to beating Buffalo isn’t necessarily containing Eichel so much as it seems to be just showing up

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

^ I’m not sure what you’re going for. Per60 stats multiplied out by ice time make a difference

As for QoC, it’s just data. Go to natural stat trick and you can see the breakdown of TOI for every player against every other player in the league. It’s aggregated and that’s the basis for QoC. The opposition is what it is

What I do know is that Buffalo is an awful team that is a perpetual bottom dweller and hasn’t made the playoffs in 10 years

I am not in the room for game planning but maybe opposing coaches feel the need to zero in on matching against Eichel because the key to beating Buffalo isn’t necessarily containing Eichel so much as it seems to be just showing up

I went to post 56 as you suggested and found the words that said that the goal production was not linear with the WAR %, but then when looking at the graph supplied the gap between Lindholm's 88% WAR and Eichel's 95% is in fact pretty linear. Over the last 3 years Eichel provides maybe a 10% bump on Lindholm.

If the Flames are all in on this sort of analytics they are not going to trade for Eichel.

The JFresh Analysis says that Flames already have a solid 1C that is in the top 12% of the league and Eichel is not much of an upgrade that uses up a lot of cap.

If the JFresh analysis is correct the Flames have the talent that demonstrates it on the ice and it all comes down to coaching and goal-tending. Treliving should be extended long term for putting together this analytics contender.

Gaudreau is basically too good to trade and should be looking at least a 10M x 7. and his last 2 years where he was #36 in ppg is really good but his 3 year ppg is great... 27th in the league. A legit top player on a lot of teams.

JFresh will have Gaudreau drop like a rock when 2018-19 falls off the 3 year moving average unless of course he puts up 99 pts in 82 games +18 this season to replace the 2018-19 numbers.

[DeluxeMoustache]

^ I still don’t know what your point is.

The Flames are not all in on analytics, and if anybody is all in based on analytics that would be crazy. Having said that, they do have staff that perform, utilize and interpret data. It’s a tool. If you’re building a house you don’t go all in on the hammer and wave off the saw.

Most people agree that Lindholm is very good, well above average, and that Eichel is among the top players of the league. Data suggests that Lindholm is very good and that Eichel is ranked higher, even including Eichel’s last year.

[DeluxeMoustache]

This one is from before last season, when Markstrom was signed

https://jfresh.substack.com/p/jfresh...enzy-live-blog

Now we’re talking. Some real classic July 1st-style money and term here. Markstrom is good - top ten starter in each of the past two seasons good. At least one proprietary model is even higher on him because of the number of rush chances Vancouver allows, which I’m open to but not willing to fully sign onto. Look, goalies are voodoo. Markstrom is almost uniquely consistent lately but that could change quick, as we all know. He stole quite a few games for the Canucks this year but he’s also prone to really bad starts as well. This deal could be a lot worse, but I’m not sold.

This was interesting, in his article he also looked at Lundqvist, Murray, Talbot, Khudobin and Holtby. These goalie numbers - I’m kind of with him, in the sense that future goalie prediction based on past results is often a crapshoot. Talbot had one very ugly season in his three year sample, and we all know where that was.

[Bingo]

Seemed like the place to put this.

NHL coaching by xGA and xGF vs average.

Sutter literally #1 (maybe 2 to Bednar), Ward a hot mess.

From @ineffectivemath vis Kent Wilson

https://twitter.com/user/status/1430233194410889217

[Ashasx]

Ward is the worst Flames head coach ever.

And that's an impressively low bar.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

Ward is the worst Flames head coach ever.

And that's an impressively low bar.

35-26-5

Good news I guess, the Flames must be pretty good if the worst coach ever has a winning record with them

[Canada 02]

Huska is in there. Is that from his two games while Sutter quarantined?

Excited to see Sutter near the top. He and Markstrom are my primary grasp at optimism for this season

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by dino7c

35-26-5

Good news I guess, the Flames must be pretty good if the worst coach ever has a winning record with them

ok

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by dino7c

35-26-5

Good news I guess, the Flames must be pretty good if the worst coach ever has a winning record with them

he started with what? seven straight wins? Can we assume those are on him? I am not sure we can.

After that? basically 500 (pt%age). This team is more talented than that.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

Ward is the worst Flames head coach ever.

And that's an impressively low bar.

You don't remember Don Hay or Greg Gilbert, do you?