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Old 09-01-2020, 10:42 AM   #21
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Looking backwards at the shutdowns, I see we made a necessary calculation based on what we knew at the time, but it is something that we can never - going forward - do again. That's it.
But we will always make the necessary calculation based on what we know at the time. What can't we do going forward, Shut down? It would depend on the data, so "never" really isn't in play. Update from the data indicated in the article? Maybe, but even that doesn't really change much in my mind, other than perhaps allow for retesting earlier and end self-isolation if it comes to that.
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Old 09-01-2020, 10:44 AM   #22
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Azure,

My response was primarily regarding the interpretation of RT-PCR results, as I suspect, I am one of the few on this board with real-life, first-hand experience performing these tests and interpreting the results. I think it is a mistake to ignore weak positive samples, and I don't think you'll find many people in this field who will agree with its sentiments. So yes, this article is a disservice, because untrained indviduals will not interpret these data correctly, and it will further embolden individuals to engage in high-risk behaviours.

That said, I agree with many of your criticisms of the government. And I think it is important to realise, even in Canada, just how much politics has interfered with our pandemic response. I will not go into detail, but suffice to say, there are a lot of resources at universities and federal labs that are currently heavily under-utilised that could be mobilised at a moment's notice to help contribute to the pandemic. I thought this article was an excellent summation of my feelings.

I think it is very difficult to compare the NBA and NHL's efforts to the real-world. The key to its success is the "bubble", which appears to be strictly enforced. The problem is, society isn't setup as a bubble, and the moment you try to enforce one, well you get the "muh freedoms" folk; so you'll always end up having intermixing of cohorts with positive members, which defeats the purpose. I think what the leagues have done is really cool, and I'm sure it could be a chapter in a future epidemiology text book. But, I just can't fathom administering a similar program to the entire country. Someone said it well in the other thread, but the gist of it is, the ability to supply and pay for these tests for everyone on a daily basis is not possible. And I think it's plain to see that the average person no longer has the discipline or is willing to tolerate "bubble" life.

I'm also not advocating for complete shutdowns; we can ill afford to keep going that way, but in order to mitigate spread, changes will have to be implemented including high uptake of mask usage and proper physical distancing. Christ, most of the latest spikes in cases are based on people that for one reason, or another, can't seem to follow guidelines. I'm not really one for an authoritorian clamp down, but if people don't want to see more shutdowns, then perhaps these "guidelines" need to be turned into enforceable laws. And that will not go over well...damned if you do, damned if you don't. People suck.

I guess in the end, it comes down to a balance between the acceptable number of deaths and what the new normal will be. If I had to make an educated guess, I would expect that this virus will become endemic and will be in circulation for the foreseeable future unless an extremely effective vaccine is produced and enough of the population take it. I have my doubts on both of those aspects.
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Old 09-01-2020, 02:37 PM   #23
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Looking backwards at the shutdowns, I see we made a necessary calculation based on what we knew at the time, but it is something that we can never - going forward - do again. That's it.
Given that our Asian partners didn't shutdown the way we did, nor had any of the similar issues that we had, I don't subscribe to this ridiculous groupthink.

At the end of the day our great public health organizations gambled with people's lives by involving politics when it came to mandating mask use, or at the very least heavily encouraging people wearing masks.

"From a political and legal standpoint we probably can't come out and say you HAVE to wear a mask, but we heavily encourage people to wear a mask to help prevent spread."

Instead they said "no, masks are not necessary, blah, blah, blah."

Pathetic.
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Old 09-01-2020, 02:41 PM   #24
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Azure,

My response was primarily regarding the interpretation of RT-PCR results, as I suspect, I am one of the few on this board with real-life, first-hand experience performing these tests and interpreting the results. I think it is a mistake to ignore weak positive samples, and I don't think you'll find many people in this field who will agree with its sentiments. So yes, this article is a disservice, because untrained indviduals will not interpret these data correctly, and it will further embolden individuals to engage in high-risk behaviours.

That said, I agree with many of your criticisms of the government. And I think it is important to realise, even in Canada, just how much politics has interfered with our pandemic response. I will not go into detail, but suffice to say, there are a lot of resources at universities and federal labs that are currently heavily under-utilised that could be mobilised at a moment's notice to help contribute to the pandemic. I thought this article was an excellent summation of my feelings.

I think it is very difficult to compare the NBA and NHL's efforts to the real-world. The key to its success is the "bubble", which appears to be strictly enforced. The problem is, society isn't setup as a bubble, and the moment you try to enforce one, well you get the "muh freedoms" folk; so you'll always end up having intermixing of cohorts with positive members, which defeats the purpose. I think what the leagues have done is really cool, and I'm sure it could be a chapter in a future epidemiology text book. But, I just can't fathom administering a similar program to the entire country. Someone said it well in the other thread, but the gist of it is, the ability to supply and pay for these tests for everyone on a daily basis is not possible. And I think it's plain to see that the average person no longer has the discipline or is willing to tolerate "bubble" life.

I'm also not advocating for complete shutdowns; we can ill afford to keep going that way, but in order to mitigate spread, changes will have to be implemented including high uptake of mask usage and proper physical distancing. Christ, most of the latest spikes in cases are based on people that for one reason, or another, can't seem to follow guidelines. I'm not really one for an authoritorian clamp down, but if people don't want to see more shutdowns, then perhaps these "guidelines" need to be turned into enforceable laws. And that will not go over well...damned if you do, damned if you don't. People suck.

I guess in the end, it comes down to a balance between the acceptable number of deaths and what the new normal will be. If I had to make an educated guess, I would expect that this virus will become endemic and will be in circulation for the foreseeable future unless an extremely effective vaccine is produced and enough of the population take it. I have my doubts on both of those aspects.
I just realized you are from Winnipeg, so you probably see a lot of the stupidity I see with the Manitoba strategy.

Either way, I understand what you're saying. It just annoys the hell out of me right now how after 4 months we're still stuck on what we were doing on day 1. Whether that be with testing, isolation, etc. Our Asian friends are way beyond that already, so we can't act like 'hey we had no idea what to do here.'

As for the contact tracing, as I'm sure you know, Manitoba still has nothing.

Which is also pathetic in its own right.
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Old 09-01-2020, 05:16 PM   #25
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Given that our Asian partners didn't shutdown the way we did, nor had any of the similar issues that we had, I don't subscribe to this ridiculous groupthink.
Right, they did so much more strict and invasively. It’s certainly what needed to be done (S. Korea specifically), but it wasn’t going to fly here. I don’t understand the ‘group think’ jab, as I recall there being plenty of support for those models in the early days of the Covid-19 thread.
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Old 09-02-2020, 12:01 PM   #26
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Right, they did so much more strict and invasively. It’s certainly what needed to be done (S. Korea specifically), but it wasn’t going to fly here. I don’t understand the ‘group think’ jab, as I recall there being plenty of support for those models in the early days of the Covid-19 thread.
Nobody knew what to do, so they all just subscribed to what the guy down the road was doing.

Apply that on a world level.

How many countries did what South Korea or Japan did? Or even Sweden. Not many. Why? Because they just subscribed to what was accepted and 'good policy' and went along with it. Group think.

At this point fear mongering played a major part as well.
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Old 09-02-2020, 01:23 PM   #27
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Nobody knew what to do, so they all just subscribed to what the guy down the road was doing.

Apply that on a world level.

How many countries did what South Korea or Japan did? Or even Sweden. Not many. Why? Because they just subscribed to what was accepted and 'good policy' and went along with it. Group think.

At this point fear mongering played a major part as well.
No, I’m saying that nobody did what S.Korea or Japan did because they can’t. That type of invasive contract tracing, mask use enforcement, and general social buy in were never going to work here. That’s why they still aren’t there.
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Old 09-02-2020, 01:35 PM   #28
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No, I’m saying that nobody did what S.Korea or Japan did because they can’t. That type of invasive contract tracing, mask use enforcement, and general social buy in were never going to work here. That’s why they still aren’t there.
Are you kidding me? I can't stand this attitude. If government across Canada had gone down this road from the beginning with strong messaging and clear consequences, we would have had exactly the same social buy-in as the Asian countries.

We already have invasive contact tracing in Canada and voluntary mask use has been well over 50%. Government's messaging has been terribly inconsistent, we took our sweet time closing down borders, and basically generated a massive fiscal crisis because of our inaction.
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Old 09-02-2020, 01:36 PM   #29
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Are you kidding me? I can't stand this attitude. If government across Canada had gone down this road from the beginning with strong messaging and clear consequences, we would have had exactly the same social buy-in as the Asian countries.

We already have invasive contact tracing in Canada and voluntary mask use has been well over 50%. Government's messaging has been terribly inconsistent.
They’ve been debating the legal loopholes and ramifications from the beginning. I said outright that we should have done with South Korea did.
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Old 09-02-2020, 01:38 PM   #30
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They’ve been debating the legal loopholes and ramifications from the beginning. I said outright that we should have done with South Korea did.
Debating them publicly. Look, Health Canada - and the federal government - doesn't really get a pass on this.

Started with the mask debacle, then the incredible failure to order vaccines on time, and now this incredible resistance to at-home testing.
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Old 09-02-2020, 01:39 PM   #31
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Are you kidding me? I can't stand this attitude. If government across Canada had gone down this road from the beginning with strong messaging and clear consequences, we would have had exactly the same social buy-in as the Asian countries.

We already have invasive contact tracing in Canada and voluntary mask use has been well over 50%. Government's messaging has been terribly inconsistent, we took our sweet time closing down borders, and basically generated a massive fiscal crisis because of our inaction.
Lets be clear. It was because of the Liberal government's action. And then every other party agreed with them. And then every provincial government went along with the stupidity.

To this day we can't get clear messaging on most things.

Every politician in Canada that played a part in this should be thrown out of office. Or they should just willingly resign. Completely pathetic.
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Old 09-02-2020, 01:40 PM   #32
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Lets be clear. It was because of the Liberal government's action. And then every other party agreed with them. And then every provincial government went along with the stupidity.

To this day we can't get clear messaging on most things.

Every politician in Canada that played a part in this should be thrown out of office. Or they should just willingly resign. Completely pathetic.
Canadians' blithe applause to government mediocrity has been absolutely despicable.
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Old 09-02-2020, 01:42 PM   #33
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Canadians' blithe applause to government mediocrity has been absolutely despicable.
Wait till we start hearing about what happened in care facilities and nursing homes.

#### will hit the fan then.

Or, it probably won't. Cause most people don't care.
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Old 09-02-2020, 01:43 PM   #34
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Wait till we start hearing about what happened in care facilities and nursing homes.

#### will hit the fan then.

Or, it probably won't. Cause most people don't care.
Most people don't care. They'd rather point to the disaster in the US and compare our situation to that. Canadian nationalism is the worst.
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Old 09-02-2020, 01:52 PM   #35
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Most people don't care. They'd rather point to the disaster in the US and compare our situation to that. Canadian nationalism is the worst.
I think you need to compare the relative performance of all G7 and G20 nations on both economic, education and health impacts.

South Korea Was a standout. The idea that the government was a failure because we didn’t meat SKs performance is not really fair. Rank our comparable nations and the evaluate where we performed worse or better.

Locking down the US boarder earlier then we did would have been very difficult to do. It’s hindsight to say that it should have been done earlier when at the time it was Chinese flights that people wanted stopped. Just doing that would have been ineffective and likely changed nothing.

There are legitimate criticisms to be made about the Covid response. Especially around how information flowed within health Canada. However saying Canada has done a reasonable job isn’t settling for mediocrity.
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Old 09-02-2020, 01:59 PM   #36
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I think you need to compare the relative performance of all G7 and G20 nations on both economic, education and health impacts.

South Korea Was a standout. The idea that the government was a failure because we didn’t meat SKs performance is not really fair. Rank our comparable nations and the evaluate where we performed worse or better.

Locking down the US boarder earlier then we did would have been very difficult to do. It’s hindsight to say that it should have been done earlier when at the time it was Chinese flights that people wanted stopped. Just doing that would have been ineffective and likely changed nothing.

There are legitimate criticisms to be made about the Covid response. Especially around how information flowed within health Canada. However saying Canada has done a reasonable job isn’t settling for mediocrity.
Our inability to order vaccines on time which puts us behind many of our G20 peers is reason enough to call our government's response mediocre. The mask and at-home testing gabble is another.

Canadians should genuinely be enraged it took our government so much time to procure enough vaccine doses. As it stands, we may have to wait substantially longer than the Americans, Australians and British. In normal times, that would be a scandal enough to topple any government.
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Old 09-02-2020, 02:02 PM   #37
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https://www.macleans.ca/opinion/how-...ccine-endgame/

Like what a dazzling display of Canadian procurement mediocrity.

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Instead of racing to get Canadians a vaccine—any working vaccine during a pandemic—the Trudeau government is more interested in giving a leg up to Canadian industry. Incredibly Health Canada, which should be in charge of the vaccine drive, has been sidelined, to the point where it punts even basic questions about that effort to Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada (ISED).
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Old 09-02-2020, 02:18 PM   #38
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https://www.macleans.ca/opinion/how-...ccine-endgame/

Like what a dazzling display of Canadian procurement mediocrity.
Canada already has deals signed with 4 different companies:

Pfizer (20M doses)
Moderna (56M doses)
Novavax (76M doses)
Johnson & Johnson (38M doses)


https://globalnews.ca/news/7307345/n...ada-agreement/


And are apparently close to one with AstraZeneca for the Oxford vaccine.
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Old 09-02-2020, 02:19 PM   #39
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It seems like that article is missing sourcing on where it makes the judgement that Canada not real easing the number of doses it has secured is the same has having zero doses secured.

Quote:
The federal government has entered two agreements to secure millions of doses of potential COVID-19 vaccines.

Public Services and Procurement Minister Anita Anand says Ottawa has signed deals with the pharmaceutical giant Pfizer and biotechnology firm Moderna. Pfizer will supply its BNT162 mRNA-based vaccine candidate, while Moderna will provide its mRNA-1273 vaccine candidate.

"These vaccine candidates are very promising and we all look forward to the day when restrictions can be lifted entirely," Anand said Wednesday during a news conference in Toronto along with Science and Industry Minister Navdeep Bains.

"However there is more work to do. Any potential vaccine candidate will take time to develop, properly test, mass manufacture and distribute."

Anand wouldn't specify exactly how many doses Canada would purchase under the deals or how much money it would spend because the government is in negotiations with international and domestic firms about purchasing additional doses of other vaccine candidates.
The article appears based on the above quote from the minister on August 4th

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5674820

If the author is correct and the Pfizer and Moderna purchase are vapourware then the government should fall over it.

However the article does not appear to have any evidence to support its contentions.
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Old 09-02-2020, 02:27 PM   #40
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I believe the Novavax vaccine hasn’t even entered Phase 3 trials. We screwed up big time.
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