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Old 11-21-2020, 07:24 PM   #4961
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She probably had multiple comorbidities and if you are a regular 20 year old you have nothing to worry about. Stop fear mongering.

Did I do that right?
Yep, donít post facts. Facts are fear mongering.
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Old 11-21-2020, 07:28 PM   #4962
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Did some quick math based on a tweet from Dr Joe Vipond (source). If 45 people are expected to die based on today’s cases alone (3.5% mortality) then with just a single doubling in the next two week that gives us 1200 Albertans dead by Dec 5. Sadly, these numbers are already likely locked in. If there are no effective measures announced on Monday and you give the virus another two weeks and just one more doubling period, ~4000-5000 Albertans will be dead by Christmas.

And that doesn’t factor in any excess deaths due to ICU shortages. The grim math makes me think it’s not going to be a very festive holiday in many households and should underscore why so many are desperate for a response from the government.

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Old 11-21-2020, 07:53 PM   #4963
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Alberta's rates are quite a bit lower than that though, likely due to a younger population. CFR in Alberta is about 1.3% if we use the case count 2 weeks ago. Hospitalization and ICU rates are about 4% and 0.7% respectively, if we use the case count from a week ago to account for lag.

That said, I imagine severe outcomes are going to follow cases fairly closely. So if there are 10 deaths per day and 60 people in ICU now, there will likely be 20 deaths a day and 100 or so people in the ICU 2-3 weeks from now (since new cases have doubled in that recent span). And that math will likely continue as cases rise.
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Old 11-21-2020, 08:28 PM   #4964
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https://calgarysun.com/news/local-ne...c-e58a4964eaeb

For a third consecutive day, Alberta has set a new record for COVID-19 cases detected in a single day.

One in every 100 Albertans has now tested positive for COVID-19, with 45,288 total lab-confirmed cases detected since March, but many more are thought to have been exposed to the virus.
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Old 11-21-2020, 10:21 PM   #4965
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Not worth it.
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Old 11-21-2020, 11:47 PM   #4966
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Here's Jason Luan, Associate Minister for Mental Health & Addiction, casually drop that the UCP's strategy for COVID is to test thresholds and push things to the limit before implementing any more measures.

Bold move Cotton, I hope that strategy pays off.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1330339373368320000
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Old 11-22-2020, 12:16 AM   #4967
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Maybe I don't understand what you are trying to say, but under no circumstance would I ever willingly want my wife to be diagnosed with Covid.
I felt the same way with my Mother. She’s someone extremely at high risk if she catches COVID. About 6 weeks ago she was extremely ill. Could barely breath and almost had to go to the hospital. She started to get better while waiting for her test result and I was hoping that it was COVID because then at least I knew that she had gone through it and she was on the mend. Turned out to be an pneumonia. So now I’m extra scared of how catching COVID would effect her. So I can understand when V says that he was hoping that it was COVID.
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Old 11-22-2020, 09:44 AM   #4968
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To be fair, she did have co-morbidity(ies) as per the article, but that is such a broad stroke. High blood pressure falls under this. Asthma probably does as well. It is a capture all, which people donít realize many will fall under.
Precisely. I think Dr. Hinshaw said something like 800,000 Albertans have one co-morbidity.
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Old 11-22-2020, 10:03 AM   #4969
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Now more than ever we need to stop listening to armchair epidemiologists and backseat experts, writing from a position of privilege, and start heeding the actual experts on the front lines like the tens of thousands of health care workers who are pleading for help by way of a lockdown to help bend the curve.
https://albertapolitics.ca/2020/11/g...eed-not-apply/


Good post by a nurse, and takes shots at The Dinger, which I can always get behind.
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Old 11-22-2020, 10:28 AM   #4970
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https://albertapolitics.ca/2020/11/g...eed-not-apply/


Good post by a nurse, and takes shots at The Dinger, which I can always get behind.
For context. This guy is the union vice president, doesn't work as a nurse anymore and is the former ndp mla for Cochrane. Certainly not an expert in the field or non partisan. I don't agree with Bell either but this guy, along with all of the other union leaders are calling for lockdowns with little regard for the wellbeing of anyone but their members.
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Old 11-22-2020, 10:40 AM   #4971
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For context. This guy is the union vice president, doesn't work as a nurse anymore and is the former ndp mla for Cochrane. Certainly not an expert in the field or non partisan. I don't agree with Bell either but this guy, along with all of the other union leaders are calling for lockdowns with little regard for the wellbeing of anyone but their members.
The issue I have with lockdowns at this point is the economic devastation it will lead to. Almost every business impacted is a small business that has had a horrible 2020, and this lockdown will come during its most hopeful time (in any year, let alone this year).

Iím hoping that they leave these small businesses alone, leave restaurants open and focus on the places where thereís actual spread. Schools, gyms, churches, and actually crackdown on social gatherings at peopleís homes.
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Old 11-22-2020, 11:22 AM   #4972
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So you want to close schools - which prevents people from being able to work because they need to be home with their kids?

At this point they don’t know where the spread is coming from because there are so many unknown cases.
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Looks like you'll need one long before I will. May I suggest deflection king?
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Old 11-22-2020, 11:34 AM   #4973
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The issue I have with lockdowns at this point is the economic devastation it will lead to. Almost every business impacted is a small business that has had a horrible 2020, and this lockdown will come during its most hopeful time (in any year, let alone this year).

Iím hoping that they leave these small businesses alone, leave restaurants open and focus on the places where thereís actual spread. Schools, gyms, churches, and actually crackdown on social gatherings at peopleís homes.
Closing schools will also have a huge economic impact, mostly on women, single parents, and the poor.
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Old 11-22-2020, 11:36 AM   #4974
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For context. This guy is the union vice president, doesn't work as a nurse anymore and is the former ndp mla for Cochrane. Certainly not an expert in the field or non partisan. I don't agree with Bell either but this guy, along with all of the other union leaders are calling for lockdowns with little regard for the wellbeing of anyone but their members.

Can non-union members call for a lockdown? I'm not in a union and I support a circuit-breaker lockdown, something 430 Alberta physicians and multiple healthcare unions have already called for earlier this month. That doesn't sound like only caring about their members - that sounds like general good governance when personal responsibility has failed.

Our society seems to be unable to comprehend the concept of exponential growth - that is, there is not enough respect for what a virus truly entails. People are still going out, getting together, not following all the rules, and some privileged members of society feel like they know more than our certified health professionals and choose to ignore this as one big hoax or its overblown.

In a pandemic, we are only as strong as the weakest person in the group.

Calling union members as only looking out for their members is just dumb. Union members have families and communities too. Any benefit from a lockdown would benefit all members of society. Pandemics don't choose union members differently than non-union members. Would it be any different if I said this UCP government is just catering to their base by giving them liberties instead of lockdowns?

Jyonti Gondek was recently on the latest episode of the Sprawlcast. She made a good point - there has to be a balance between healthcare and economy, not simply focus on the latter. "If you can't give people the sense of security that they will not suffer transmission of COVID by going to these businesses, they're simply not going to go there."
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Old 11-22-2020, 11:42 AM   #4975
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Originally Posted by chedder View Post
For context. This guy is the union vice president, doesn't work as a nurse anymore and is the former ndp mla for Cochrane. Certainly not an expert in the field or non partisan. I don't agree with Bell either but this guy, along with all of the other union leaders are calling for lockdowns with little regard for the wellbeing of anyone but their members.
I'm not sure what you mean by this?
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As a former operating room nurse Iím currently 2nd Vice-President of United Nurses of Alberta, and Iíve been listening to the more than 30,000 Alberta Registered Nurses, Registered Psychiatric Nurses and other front-line health care workers UNA represents. They are overworked, frustrated and fed up with having their legitimate concerns dismissed as alarmist and being accused of fear mongering.
How's that not qualified? Because he also worked for a party you don't like? That just comes across as petty criticism.



And you don't agree that the guy who's job it is to look out for his members is doing that? Look, if it comes down to picking between keeping business open, or keeping our medical system in tact by not allowing doctors and nurses to fall apart due to burnout, I can tell you immediately what side I'm on. I know that may be controversial to some, but how would you feel if your loved on was dying in the hospital, and no one was there to care for them?
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Old 11-22-2020, 11:46 AM   #4976
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I wonder if it makes sense to put those who have had covid at the bottom of the vaccination list? Is there enough evidence these people would have a really low chance of reinfection? I know it's only about 40 000 in Alberta. I suspect a good chunk of those are healthcare workers, who should be at the top of the list, but maybe it makes sense to bump them down?
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Old 11-22-2020, 11:49 AM   #4977
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Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15 View Post
So you want to close schools - which prevents people from being able to work because they need to be home with their kids?

At this point they donít know where the spread is coming from because there are so many unknown cases.
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Closing schools will also have a huge economic impact, mostly on women, single parents, and the poor.
Here is the problem....we cant seem to figure out where this is all stemming from. We had decent success stemming the tide of cases when everything was closed and now that we're on the brink we may have to go back to that well.

We're a few weeks too late to this, so whatever we do....its going to suck. But we cant let 'Good' be the victim of 'Perfect.'
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Old 11-22-2020, 11:49 AM   #4978
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Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame View Post
Can non-union members call for a lockdown? I'm not in a union and I support a circuit-breaker lockdown, something 430 Alberta physicians and multiple healthcare unions have already called for earlier this month. That doesn't sound like only caring about their members - that sounds like general good governance when personal responsibility has failed.

Our society seems to be unable to comprehend the concept of exponential growth - that is, there is not enough respect for what a virus truly entails. People are still going out, getting together, not following all the rules, and some privileged members of society feel like they know more than our certified health professionals and choose to ignore this as one big hoax or its overblown.

In a pandemic, we are only as strong as the weakest person in the group.

Calling union members as only looking out for their members is just dumb. Union members have families and communities too. Any benefit from a lockdown would benefit all members of society. Pandemics don't choose union members differently than non-union members. Would it be any different if I said this UCP government is just catering to their base by giving them liberties instead of lockdowns?

Jyonti Gondek was recently on the latest episode of the Sprawlcast. She made a good point - there has to be a balance between healthcare and economy, not simply focus on the latter. "If you can't give people the sense of security that they will not suffer transmission of COVID by going to these businesses, they're simply not going to go there."
One might have thought so, but it seems not.
There is less need for lockdown if true.
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Old 11-22-2020, 11:52 AM   #4979
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I wonder if it makes sense to put those who have had covid at the bottom of the vaccination list? Is there enough evidence these people would have a really low chance of reinfection? I know it's only about 40 000 in Alberta. I suspect a good chunk of those are healthcare workers, who should be at the top of the list, but maybe it makes sense to bump them down?
COVID is not a "one and done" virus. Some people can catch it again. Everyone's level of immunity is different, there is no hard and fast standard.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020...s-quickly-some

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/2020...ch-covid-twice
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Old 11-22-2020, 11:57 AM   #4980
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One might have thought so, but it seems not.
There is less need for lockdown if true.
When you have an unknown source rate of higher than 75%, confidently asserting that lockdowns are not needed is a fools errand.
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