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Old 11-21-2020, 12:39 PM   #4901
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I have had one friend kill himself and another one try so don’t explain this away. It’s slimy.

I'm sorry to hear that, honestly. But is your point seriously that discussing the source of mental health difficulties during a pandemic is "slimy", but calling other people "babies", "suckers", "panicky", and thanking posts that say people sound like they're on the verge of "curling up in a ball and crying" is cool?
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Old 11-21-2020, 12:41 PM   #4902
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I'm confused about the messaging of ICU capacity right now. Currently were at 58, but there's messaging that we're almost at our limit, not really saying we can add more if necessary.

I thought that since April, that Alberta Health has been prepared to expand ICU considerably since based on their projections, there were expecting a lot of cases for the spring, which we didn't get anywhere close to?

Based on this article from September, there's currently 272 ICU beds in the province in total. And there's the ability to improve capacity to more than 1000. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calga...care-1.5723342

So where's the ICU limit being reached coming from? Am I'm misunderstanding things? Is this hospitalization limits that's being talked about instead?
I believe there are 70 COVID specific ICU beds. They still need the 272 ICU beds for other ICU people (car accidents, pneumonia etc..).
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Old 11-21-2020, 12:42 PM   #4903
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Originally Posted by opendoor View Post
I'm sorry to hear that, honestly. But is your point seriously that discussing the source of mental health difficulties during a pandemic is "slimy", but calling other people "babies", "suckers", "panicky", and thanking posts that say people sound like they're on the verge of "curling up in a ball and crying" is cool?
You do your best to undercut people’s real concerns about public policy responses to the pandemic. There has been a significant mental health impact from the lockdowns. Reducing and policing social interactions for such a significant period of time has had profound impacts on many people.
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Old 11-21-2020, 12:44 PM   #4904
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I believe there are 70 COVID specific ICU beds. They still need the 272 ICU beds for other ICU people (car accidents, pneumonia etc..).
Ah, that makes sense. That seems like such a low number for Covid specific beds. With all this time, you figured we would have a lot more since we should've been anticipating the second wave would be a lot.
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Old 11-21-2020, 12:46 PM   #4905
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Originally Posted by Joborule View Post
I'm confused about the messaging of ICU capacity right now. Currently were at 58, but there's messaging that we're almost at our limit, not really saying we can add more if necessary.

I thought that since April, that Alberta Health has been prepared to expand ICU considerably since based on their projections, there were expecting a lot of cases for the spring, which we didn't get anywhere close to?

Based on this article from September, there's currently 272 ICU beds in the province in total. And there's the ability to improve capacity to more than 1000. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calga...care-1.5723342

So where's the ICU limit being reached coming from? Am I'm misunderstanding things? Is this hospitalization limits that's being talked about instead?
It might provide some insight with some of the Healthcare professionals on social media and get more understanding as to what the "other side" is like at the moment with having to work through thousands of new cases per day and increasing hospitalization numbers. Since I am local to Edmonton I recommend Dr. Darren Markland, Dr. Shazma Mithani or Dr. Lynora Saxinger for local physicians at the U of A and with good insights. I also recommend Devi Sridhar who is the chair of Global Public Health at Edinburgh University Med School.
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Old 11-21-2020, 12:46 PM   #4906
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Yes, pretty obvious that our political leaders failed substantially in almost every respect to containing and mitigating this virus between the first lockdown and the present.
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Old 11-21-2020, 12:51 PM   #4907
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I left this thread in the summer. The amount of condescension in this thread by the same 6-8 posters is unbearable. I came back because it is a good resource for news related specifically to Calgary but unsurprisingly not much has changed.

I know this makes me sound callous but I just can't get overly worked up about people in their 80s and 90s dying. The unfortunate thing about the elderly is that they die. Life expectancy in Canada is 82. These people are living to the expected age.

Similarly, 70 year olds, while sad, is not tragic.

Life comes with risk, people die. I don't want to dismiss the pain of loss and mourning to those that have lost loved ones, but we don't make policy decision on people's feelings, or at least we shouldn't.

There are serious consequences to the shut down. A generation of young adults are experiencing a significant mental health crisis (See below). We need to consider the long term impacts of this. I am not willing to sacrifice my child's future for people who have lead a full life.

So, as Ryan Coke said, the issue is about the health care system, not preventing death. People are going to die. We need to accept this. So far nothing we have done has overwhelmed the health care system, so the posts about the room being on fire are complete bull####.

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In the US adult population as a whole, the incidence of suicidal ideation typically hovers around 3.4 percent. But this new study reveals that in October, 36.9 percent of young adults had suicidal thoughts, compared to 32.2 percent in May in the wake of the first round of government lockdowns.

https://fee.org/articles/harvard-res...amid-pandemic/
But the healthcare system is extremely stressed:

https://www.cbc.ca/radio/thehouse/pa...erta-1.5809999

This is a result of infections 2 weeks to a month ago. We should be extremely concerned, as they can barely handle what is happening now. When the current 1000 cases per day wave hits in 2 weeks, what is it going to look like? that's why the room is on fire.

You may worry about the mental health of regular people, but how about healthcare workers? Do they not deserve our efforts to make them not completely break down? Even if you don't think old people dying is a big deal, what about health care workers killing themselves, or quitting from burnout? Feeling like they are being sacrificed so people can go to bars and gyms?

If you care about money you will also understand that the more stressed our system becomes, the more it costs us in taxes.

The efforts to control the virus are multifaceted in their reasons. Boiling it down to not caring if an individual old person dies is only capturing a small sliver of the picture.
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Old 11-21-2020, 12:51 PM   #4908
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Ah, that makes sense. That seems like such a low number for Covid specific beds. With all this time, you figured we would have a lot more since we should've been anticipating the second wave would be a lot.
I believe we can ramp up to 1,000 if we have to. The issue isn't beds. It's people. They don't have enough trained nurses or physicians to deal with it. They can get family docs and surgeons to jump in but they don't really know how to deal with this type of trauma. We want to avoid going over 70 because we are getting non experts to Band-Aid our response. In the spring we thought this was going to be a lot worse than it actually has turned out to be.
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Old 11-21-2020, 12:56 PM   #4909
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In the spring we thought this was going to be a lot worse than it actually has turned out to be.
This is a pretty vague statement. Care to elaborate? And from who?
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Old 11-21-2020, 12:56 PM   #4910
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You also can’t look at total beds and associated staff numbers for the whole province as a whole without considering regional breakdowns. One specific hospital can hit capacity quickly while one in another city has excess. The excess in Grand Prairie doesn’t do so much for Lethbridge.
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Old 11-21-2020, 12:58 PM   #4911
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I know it's not a popular thing to say. But stopping all COVID death comes with a cost as well. It's a kobayashi maru situation, if you are advocating for no covid death then we need to shut everything down now. If you are willing to accept some death, then we are simply debating about how much death is okay.

And please don't mistake that post as some pro-trump MAGA covid is a hoax post. I work from home, I've limited my contact with others. I cancelled restaurant plans this weekend with friends I hadn't seen in months. I barely leave my house. I believe this is serious, I want to protect the health system. I want to make sure that people who aren't covid patients receive the care they need. People waiting on surgery have them on time. I also accept people will die.
Yes people will die from Covid.

New York City has a .25% population death rate and then had some of the most extreme lock down measures to prevent further spread. That’s what happens when we wait. We know the outcome of doing nothing.

We need to balance restrictions, and up until the last month or so we have. With 2-3 week doubling periods we will be at 300-400 ICU cases. Roughly 1% of cases from two weeks ago die each day. So right now we are killing about 10 people a day. By Christmas with the do nothing approach that will be 40 people per day. At that rate of death we start to see younger people die regularly. In addition as we overwhelm the healthcare system and only treat Covid instead of everything else people will die from lack of access in addition to Covid.

A measured lockdown is required to reset case numbers and get us to April.

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Old 11-21-2020, 12:59 PM   #4912
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Everybody is forgetting the spin classes are shut down. We're going to be fine!
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Old 11-21-2020, 01:22 PM   #4913
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Stole this from Reddit. It's not just old people that will die as cases rise.

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Three things from Hinshaw today that I believe are noteworthy:

2 Albertans in their 30s died as a result of COVID-19 this week.

About 1/4 hospitalized & 1/6 in ICU have no chronic conditions.

Almost 1/4 of Albertans 20+ have at least one chronic condition.
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Old 11-21-2020, 01:41 PM   #4914
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Stole this from Reddit. It's not just old people that will die as cases rise.
It's dangerous to post this without that second part of the paragraph which mentions that both these 30 year olds had additional health problems. I do agree that things such as high blood pressure and diabetes should not be a death sentence when it comes to getting COVID19, but it can't be ignored that it's not just healthy 30 year olds passing away still.

Here is a great article with an analysis into the Alberta numbers and the amount of people who have been healthy and have passed away from COVID19. It's staggeringly small risk. Also interesting that "old age" is not considered a comorbidity, so the number of healthy people who have died could be even lower risk.

https://torontosun.com/opinion/colum...s-need-to-know
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Old 11-21-2020, 01:55 PM   #4915
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Again, why are fatality rates being contextualized as the end game here? People surviving COVID with comorbid after effects are going to be a weight on the healthcare system for years to come.

Just because there's low death rates for young people does not mean this virus is can be ignored or overlooked.
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Old 11-21-2020, 01:57 PM   #4916
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Again, why are fatality rates being contextualized as the end game here? People surviving COVID with comorbid after effects are going to be a weight on the healthcare system for years to come.

Just because there's low death rates for young people does not mean this virus is can be ignored or overlooked.
There isn’t much beyond anecdotes for “Covid long haulers.”
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Old 11-21-2020, 01:59 PM   #4917
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It's dangerous to post this without that second part of the paragraph which mentions that both these 30 year olds had additional health problems. I do agree that things such as high blood pressure and diabetes should not be a death sentence when it comes to getting COVID19, but it can't be ignored that it's not just healthy 30 year olds passing away still.

Here is a great article with an analysis into the Alberta numbers and the amount of people who have been healthy and have passed away from COVID19. It's staggeringly small risk. Also interesting that "old age" is not considered a comorbidity, so the number of healthy people who have died could be even lower risk.

https://torontosun.com/opinion/colum...s-need-to-know
That was the third bullet point. Think of 4 of your closest 30 year old friends. One of them probably has a comorbidity. Are you ok with them going to the ICU and potentially dieing? As I said, as cases rise, it's not going to just be old people.

"Almost 1/4 of Albertans 20+ have at least one chronic condition"
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Old 11-21-2020, 01:59 PM   #4918
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There isn’t much beyond anecdotes for “Covid long haulers.”
So anecdotal there are clinics with patients and physicians conducting research devoted to treating people with chronic post-COVID issues?
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Old 11-21-2020, 02:03 PM   #4919
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Just because someone isn't classified as "healthy" doesn't mean there wasn't an expectation that they had many years remaining in their lives. We are being too binary in some of these important definitional elements.
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Old 11-21-2020, 02:04 PM   #4920
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It is ethical to give every person a fighting chance to survive this. The problem with the numbers climbing is that resources are stretched too thin to be able to do this. This goes against all medico-ethical training of physicians. When ICU beds are used up people do not get a fighting chance. Doctors are unable to live up their ethical oath to do all they can to help people.

Everyone in here is talking about the toll on the general public with a lockdown (even making tenuous arguments that opioid deaths increase) but what about mental health of front line health care workers ??

Personally I keep flip flopping on another lockdown but I feel that the mental health of physicians, nurses, EMS workers etc are not being brought into discussion enough.
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