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Old 11-21-2020, 03:13 AM   #4881
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Seems like a weird thing to say when less than 4% of beds in Alberta are occupied by covid.
No if you.dont freak out you clearly don't give a.damn about humanity.

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Old 11-21-2020, 04:08 AM   #4882
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No if you.dont freak out you clearly don't give a.damn about humanity.

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Wrong thread but can you please for the love of god shut that off!
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Old 11-21-2020, 08:20 AM   #4883
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Who is "freaking out"?
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Old 11-21-2020, 08:54 AM   #4884
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They did, as much as is possible, and it will be the fastest approval of any vaccine in the history of ever. By about 5 years. How do you think the usual time frame from candidate to vaccine was reduced so dramatically. 3 more weeks is nothing, in the usual approval timeframe.
I guess my question is what are they doing now that couldnít already have been done while data collection was ongoing. A real time audit.

I just havenít seen any details on this and what kind of access regulators have been granted. Of course one of the issues is that there is no single regulator so that could get complicated.
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Old 11-21-2020, 09:06 AM   #4885
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Independence is vital in these things, you wouldn't really want regulators to be part of the process when they're tasked with double and triple checking everything afterwards. It's the same reason the trials are run by independent boards and not the companies themselves. You don't want any kind of bias to enter into such an important process.

There's a ton of material to evaluate for these approvals and production is probably the bigger bottleneck anyway. They've got to verify every aspect of the phase 3 trial and ensure that it was all done properly and that all the statistical analyses and safety data is correct. They also have to analyze production samples to ensure proper quality control. So maybe they could rush that a bit, but the lack of supply is going to be the biggest impediment. They'll still likely vaccinate the same number of people by say, the end of January, whether the approval takes one week or it takes one month.
100% agree but I believe you could carry out an effective audit without compromising independence, through reporting lines, avoiding conflict of interest etc. while still working directly with the study teams.

I think distribution may be the bigger hurdle over production, since millions of doses have been produced already but as far as I know, they are not in population centers waiting to be administered.

As Eldrick points out, maybe a real time approach has been followed and things like production samples have already been tested by regulators.
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Old 11-21-2020, 09:39 AM   #4886
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100% agree but I believe you could carry out an effective audit without compromising independence, through reporting lines, avoiding conflict of interest etc. while still working directly with the study teams.

I think distribution may be the bigger hurdle over production, since millions of doses have been produced already but as far as I know, they are not in population centers waiting to be administered.

As Eldrick points out, maybe a real time approach has been followed and things like production samples have already been tested by regulators.
In Canada they are doing this and I believe that they did as well in the US.

https://www.biopharma-reporter.com/A...s-in-Canada-EU

I think what you are asking for is already happening as fast as safely possible.
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Old 11-21-2020, 10:16 AM   #4887
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In Canada they are doing this and I believe that they did as well in the US.

https://www.biopharma-reporter.com/A...s-in-Canada-EU

I think what you are asking for is already happening as fast as safely possible.
Great article. Thank you.
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Old 11-21-2020, 10:42 AM   #4888
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I’m have been pretty happy with how Kenney has handled things for the most part...we were fairly aggressive shutting down in the spring, but he also tried to be aggressive opening up once things were under control. It’s been the last month where he hasn’t taken the decisive action required IMO to keep this under control. The restrictions from a week ago seemed mostly pointless and a waste of time. I have to admit I am hoping for something more substantial in the way of restrictions on Monday, and I am someone who does put a lot of weight in finding the balance of overall societal costs relative to direct COVID impacts.

Hopefully it is done on a finite basis, with a timeframe specified. 2-4 weeks of minimal socializing, but likely keeping schools going and trying to allow businesses to operate where possible.

But Kenney has stayed true to the idea of not overwhelming the health care system, and it appears we are at that threshold where real action has to be taken.
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Old 11-21-2020, 11:17 AM   #4889
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Who is "freaking out"?
A third of the posts in this thread are people expressing anger, exaggerating, belittling, vilifying, sneering, denouncing, and generally sounding like they're on the verge of either putting their fist through their monitor or curling up in a ball and crying. And most of that behavior has been on the part of people who feel the government and public aren't doing enough to stem covid.
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If this day gets you riled up, you obviously aren't numb to the disappointment yet to be a real fan.

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Old 11-21-2020, 11:40 AM   #4890
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Iím have been pretty happy with how Kenney has handled things for the most part...we were fairly aggressive shutting down in the spring, but he also tried to be aggressive opening up once things were under control. Itís been the last month where he hasnít taken the decisive action required IMO to keep this under control. The restrictions from a week ago seemed mostly pointless and a waste of time. I have to admit I am hoping for something more substantial in the way of restrictions on Monday, and I am someone who does put a lot of weight in finding the balance of overall societal costs relative to direct COVID impacts.

Hopefully it is done on a finite basis, with a timeframe specified. 2-4 weeks of minimal socializing, but likely keeping schools going and trying to allow businesses to operate where possible.

But Kenney has stayed true to the idea of not overwhelming the health care system, and it appears we are at that threshold where real action has to be taken.

On the other hand, the case and death numbers have lags. If the average incubation time between infection and symptoms is 5 days, then another two days for test and confirmation, then that is a week. Hospitalization occur a few days after that and deaths within a couple of weeks. You
are only just going to be seeing very early influence of those numbers, while the daily counts are going to have a lot of numbers based on things that happened 2-3 weeks ago

So there are two issues

Were the restrictions announced on the 12th pointless?
When will we be able to confirm that?

I would argue that you canít answer the first question yet, so hoping for new restrictions yesterday (after just 1 week, as I heard people talking about) or Monday, as you suggest, basically ensures or admits that they were pointless.

Because there is simply not enough time to get a clean measurable impact

The CBC had their article ďNo new COVID-19 restrictions as Alberta reports a record 1,155 new cases FridayĒ. Yeah. The record in cases was expected

The government in my view is doing the right thing, not slapping more restrictions on just a week after the last set. Now whether the last set of restrictions was well thought out or enough is obviously up for discussion. But implementing new restrictions now admits they were pointless and knew it
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Old 11-21-2020, 11:55 AM   #4891
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About the doing fine part, I seem to remember hearing that we had about 75 ICU beds put aside for Covid. We are in the high 50s to 60s. With a growing amount of cases. How long until we are pushing past that number and making tough decisions with limited bed space. Doing fine now, ok. How about in 2 weeks? If you make decisions when things have already gone badly, you are in for a world of hurt. I find viewpoints like this incredibly shortsighted. We really don't comprehend how quickly things like this can get out of our control, and that is with very readily accessible examples where it has already happened.


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Old 11-21-2020, 12:01 PM   #4892
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Who is "freaking out"?
The people in ICU feeling they may not get better.
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Old 11-21-2020, 12:05 PM   #4893
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Who is "freaking out"?
I left this thread in the summer. The amount of condescension in this thread by the same 6-8 posters is unbearable. I came back because it is a good resource for news related specifically to Calgary but unsurprisingly not much has changed.

I know this makes me sound callous but I just can't get overly worked up about people in their 80s and 90s dying. The unfortunate thing about the elderly is that they die. Life expectancy in Canada is 82. These people are living to the expected age.

Similarly, 70 year olds, while sad, is not tragic.

Life comes with risk, people die. I don't want to dismiss the pain of loss and mourning to those that have lost loved ones, but we don't make policy decision on people's feelings, or at least we shouldn't.

There are serious consequences to the shut down. A generation of young adults are experiencing a significant mental health crisis (See below). We need to consider the long term impacts of this. I am not willing to sacrifice my child's future for people who have lead a full life.

So, as Ryan Coke said, the issue is about the health care system, not preventing death. People are going to die. We need to accept this. So far nothing we have done has overwhelmed the health care system, so the posts about the room being on fire are complete bull####.


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In the US adult population as a whole, the incidence of suicidal ideation typically hovers around 3.4 percent. But this new study reveals that in October, 36.9 percent of young adults had suicidal thoughts, compared to 32.2 percent in May in the wake of the first round of government lockdowns.

https://fee.org/articles/harvard-res...amid-pandemic/
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Old 11-21-2020, 12:20 PM   #4894
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I left this thread in the summer. The amount of condescension in this thread by the same 6-8 posters is unbearable. I came back because it is a good resource for news related specifically to Calgary but unsurprisingly not much has changed.

I know this makes me sound callous but I just can't get overly worked up about people in their 80s and 90s dying. The unfortunate thing about the elderly is that they die. Life expectancy in Canada is 82. These people are living to the expected age.

Similarly, 70 year olds, while sad, is not tragic.

Life comes with risk, people die. I don't want to dismiss the pain of loss and mourning to those that have lost loved ones, but we don't make policy decision on people's feelings, or at least we shouldn't.

There are serious consequences to the shut down. A generation of young adults are experiencing a significant mental health crisis (See below). We need to consider the long term impacts of this. I am not willing to sacrifice my child's future for people who have lead a full life.

So, as Ryan Coke said, the issue is about the health care system, not preventing death. People are going to die. We need to accept this. So far nothing we have done has overwhelmed the health care system, so the posts about the room being on fire are complete bull####.


**********

In the US adult population as a whole, the incidence of suicidal ideation typically hovers around 3.4 percent. But this new study reveals that in October, 36.9 percent of young adults had suicidal thoughts, compared to 32.2 percent in May in the wake of the first round of government lockdowns.

https://fee.org/articles/harvard-res...amid-pandemic/
I donít like this post. Those older people all have family and friends and are being robbed of years and in the case of people in their 70s maybe a couple of decades of life. They deserve better.
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Old 11-21-2020, 12:21 PM   #4895
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Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache View Post
On the other hand, the case and death numbers have lags. If the average incubation time between infection and symptoms is 5 days, then another two days for test and confirmation, then that is a week. Hospitalization occur a few days after that and deaths within a couple of weeks. You
are only just going to be seeing very early influence of those numbers, while the daily counts are going to have a lot of numbers based on things that happened 2-3 weeks ago

So there are two issues

Were the restrictions announced on the 12th pointless?
When will we be able to confirm that?

I would argue that you canít answer the first question yet, so hoping for new restrictions yesterday (after just 1 week, as I heard people talking about) or Monday, as you suggest, basically ensures or admits that they were pointless.

Because there is simply not enough time to get a clean measurable impact

The CBC had their article ďNo new COVID-19 restrictions as Alberta reports a record 1,155 new cases FridayĒ. Yeah. The record in cases was expected

The government in my view is doing the right thing, not slapping more restrictions on just a week after the last set. Now whether the last set of restrictions was well thought out or enough is obviously up for discussion. But implementing new restrictions now admits they were pointless and knew it

Yeah, I agree with all of that. Itís purely my subjective opinion measures announced were confusing and not likely to make a big enough difference on their own. What will probably make a bigger difference is just overall awareness of the deteriorating situation in Alberta and the rest of the country causing voluntary behavioural changes, and maybe that will be enough, though Iím not confident it will be.

And if indeed the earlier restrictions are insufficient, I donít know if we can afford to wait another week or 2 for evidence of that.
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Old 11-21-2020, 12:24 PM   #4896
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Originally Posted by CliffFletcher View Post
A third of the posts in this thread are people expressing anger, exaggerating, belittling, vilifying, sneering, denouncing, and generally sounding like they're on the verge of either putting their fist through their monitor or curling up in a ball and crying. And most of that behavior has been on the part of people who feel the government and public aren't doing enough to stem covid.

A) I don't get this sense

B) It's interesting that you effectively picked only one side of the debate for this apparent "reach through monitor".

I don't know, and I'm not meaning you specifically, but if you have a feeling of either you or someone else and punching a monitor, it's time to turn off the computer and go outside.
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Old 11-21-2020, 12:28 PM   #4897
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In the US adult population as a whole, the incidence of suicidal ideation typically hovers around 3.4 percent. But this new study reveals that in October, 36.9 percent of young adults had suicidal thoughts, compared to 32.2 percent in May in the wake of the first round of government lockdowns.

https://fee.org/articles/harvard-res...amid-pandemic/
Looking at the actual study, it's not really clear (nor do they try to make the case) that government restrictions are driving that though. The lowest prevalence of depressive symptoms in the whole study is in the NE US in May/June, when restrictions were fairly tight still. Conversely, the highest prevalence throughout has been in the Southern US, which has generally had the lightest restrictions in the country. So is it government restrictions driving this, or is it peoples' response to a pandemic? Population mobility stats would suggest the latter. Even in places with lighter government restrictions (Florida, Texas, etc., or Sweden for an international example) population mobility drops precipitously when COVID prevalence is high, even if the government doesn't mandate restrictions. That means that people are seeing friends and family less, are more likely to lose their job or have their pay cut, etc., even in areas with virtually no restrictions because people's natural reaction to a widespread pandemic is to avoid social contact. Essentially, you're creating a dichotomy (mental health vs. reducing COVID spread) where one doesn't really exist. People are experiencing just as many (or more) mental health problems in areas with light restrictions.
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Old 11-21-2020, 12:34 PM   #4898
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I have had one friend kill himself and another one try so don’t explain this away. It’s slimy.
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Old 11-21-2020, 12:37 PM   #4899
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I'm confused about the messaging of ICU capacity right now. Currently we're at 58, but there's messaging that we're almost at our limit, not really saying we can add more if necessary.

I thought that since April, that Alberta Health has been prepared to expand ICU considerably since based on their projections, they were expecting a lot of cases for the spring, which we didn't get anywhere close to?

Based on this article from September, there's currently 272 ICU beds in the province in total. And there's the ability to improve capacity to more than 1000. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calga...care-1.5723342

So where's the ICU limit being reached coming from? Am I'm misunderstanding things? Is this hospitalization limits that's being talked about instead?

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Old 11-21-2020, 12:39 PM   #4900
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I donít like this post. Those older people all have family and friends and are being robbed of years and in the case of people in their 70s maybe a couple of decades of life. They deserve better.
I know it's not a popular thing to say. But stopping all COVID death comes with a cost as well. It's a kobayashi maru situation, if you are advocating for no covid death then we need to shut everything down now. If you are willing to accept some death, then we are simply debating about how much death is okay.

And please don't mistake that post as some pro-trump MAGA covid is a hoax post. I work from home, I've limited my contact with others. I cancelled restaurant plans this weekend with friends I hadn't seen in months. I barely leave my house. I believe this is serious, I want to protect the health system. I want to make sure that people who aren't covid patients receive the care they need. People waiting on surgery have them on time. I also accept people will die.
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