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Old 11-20-2020, 10:27 PM   #4861
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I not sure we know those aren't vectors, I think far too many people are saying that with far to much confidence, and a complete lack of evidence. From everything we know, they create some of the best conditions for spread (indoor, heavy breathing, inspite of what everyone says it's gotta be difficult to maintain distance).

It was a blunderus ineffective action, because of the things he didn't do. But that doesn't mean the things he did do were wrong.
The onus to prove something is a vector should fall to the government, not the other way around. They are disrupting our lives and those actions should not be made without sufficient evidence which they have yet to demonstrate.

People keep talking about his inaction but we're doing fine.
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Old 11-20-2020, 10:31 PM   #4862
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I get the need to balance. But this isn't like a tap that you just suddenly turn off. We could have been looking at changing the landscape as we went along, but instead we are on the brink of an absolute flood and it's like thinking that if we turn the tap down just the tiniest bit, well, the flood won't happen...
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Old 11-20-2020, 10:33 PM   #4863
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People keep talking about his inaction but we're doing fine.
Are we? This doesn't sound fine to me...


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https://calgaryherald.com/news/local...y-city-is-next


“Up until the middle to the end of October, our patients were mostly post-op complications, attempted suicides or alcohol withdrawal. Now, we have overflowed our ICU beds,” said Mary, who requested her name be changed to protect her privacy.

“We’re now almost all COVID. We don’t really have room for other patients …
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Old 11-20-2020, 10:39 PM   #4864
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The onus to prove something is a vector should fall to the government, not the other way around. They are disrupting our lives and those actions should not be made without sufficient evidence which they have yet to demonstrate.

People keep talking about his inaction but we're doing fine.

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Old 11-20-2020, 10:45 PM   #4865
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Yeah, that’s a bizarre statement. You just keep everything open until you can prove it was a significant source of the spread?
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Old 11-20-2020, 10:47 PM   #4866
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Are we? This doesn't sound fine to me...
Seems like a weird thing to say when less than 4% of beds in Alberta are occupied by covid.
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Old 11-20-2020, 10:50 PM   #4867
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I thought it was pretty clear they shut gyms and sports not because they are large outbreaks right now but they could be quite easily. We’re at the point where if a couple areas blow up we are SOL, so they shut down the areas with big risk before things go off the rails.

The issue is it was preventative and really doesn’t do anything to help right now.
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Looks like you'll need one long before I will. May I suggest deflection king?
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Old 11-20-2020, 11:02 PM   #4868
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Seems like a weird thing to say when less than 4% of beds in Alberta are occupied by covid.
...umm...ICU beds are almost full...
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Old 11-20-2020, 11:03 PM   #4869
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Hinshaw “situation is grim”
Corporatejay “we’re doing fine”
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Looks like you'll need one long before I will. May I suggest deflection king?
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Old 11-20-2020, 11:05 PM   #4870
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Seems like a weird thing to say when less than 4% of beds in Alberta are occupied by covid.
Don't hospitals usually run at 90-95% occupancy though? This is a flexible number though.

https://focus.hqca.ca/emergencydepar...tal-occupancy/

If Covid is occupying 4% and the number of patients will rise by 10%-50% per week until intervention happens and it takes two weeks to see meaningful impact to numbers from the date of implements of restrictions you should be able to see it’s not a weird thing to say. At 4% Covid we are seeing impacts to other health services in order to be ready for more Covid.

So in two weeks we will have between 5-8% of beds occupied. If we choose to interven then beds usage would peak at 7-16% occupied.

At what point should we intervene?
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Old 11-20-2020, 11:06 PM   #4871
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...umm...ICU beds are almost full...
I missed the icu part there. Thought they were referring to just hospital in general.
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Old 11-20-2020, 11:09 PM   #4872
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Some very odd comments this last page or two.
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Old 11-20-2020, 11:13 PM   #4873
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I've posted this before but seems relevant again.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1327070805285605376
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Old 11-20-2020, 11:24 PM   #4874
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I get the need to balance. But this isn't like a tap that you just suddenly turn off. We could have been looking at changing the landscape as we went along, but instead we are on the brink of an absolute flood and it's like thinking that if we turn the tap down just the tiniest bit, well, the flood won't happen...
My biggest beef is that our provincial and federal government has not figured out clear instructions for the general public and instead continues to try to micro manage outbreaks.

BCs government just finally gave an indoors mask mandate. Why hasn't this been an obvious precaution implemented sooner? I'm so frustrated that we are talking about closing businesses down again when there has always been much lower hanging fruit ignored for the last 6 months.

The positive is I think the majority of Canadians are trying to be mindful of their bubbles and most of us were smart enough to wear masks as soon as data showed it could help.
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Old 11-20-2020, 11:28 PM   #4875
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So emergency FDA approval of the Pfizer vaccine expected to take about three weeks.

I am disappointed that no one found a way for regulators to be embedded in the teams developing the vaccines such that their review could be essentially contemporaneous. Or maybe that happened, I don’t really know. Since production is happening regardless maybe not that big a deal.

It’s easy to focus on the notion that it may take a year for everyone get vaccinated but what if most everyone with co-morbidities and other high risk groups are vaccinated within three months. Shouldn’t hospitalizations plummet?
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Old 11-20-2020, 11:29 PM   #4876
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https://twitter.com/user/status/1329930370037415936
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Old 11-21-2020, 12:08 AM   #4877
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So emergency FDA approval of the Pfizer vaccine expected to take about three weeks.

I am disappointed that no one found a way for regulators to be embedded in the teams developing the vaccines such that their review could be essentially contemporaneous. Or maybe that happened, I don’t really know. Since production is happening regardless maybe not that big a deal.

It’s easy to focus on the notion that it may take a year for everyone get vaccinated but what if most everyone with co-morbidities and other high risk groups are vaccinated within three months. Shouldn’t hospitalizations plummet?
Independence is vital in these things, you wouldn't really want regulators to be part of the process when they're tasked with double and triple checking everything afterwards. It's the same reason the trials are run by independent boards and not the companies themselves. You don't want any kind of bias to enter into such an important process.

There's a ton of material to evaluate for these approvals and production is probably the bigger bottleneck anyway. They've got to verify every aspect of the phase 3 trial and ensure that it was all done properly and that all the statistical analyses and safety data is correct. They also have to analyze production samples to ensure proper quality control. So maybe they could rush that a bit, but the lack of supply is going to be the biggest impediment. They'll still likely vaccinate the same number of people by say, the end of January, whether the approval takes one week or it takes one month.
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Old 11-21-2020, 01:48 AM   #4878
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Here’s the funny thing about Alberta. Kenneys abysmal pandemic approval rating is pulled from both directions. There’s people saying we’re not doing enough. And unfortunately I feel even louder is the people saying we’re restricting too much. My immediate circle is a lot of small business owners of restaurants and such. They overwhelmingly feel that this is much ado about nothing. To be honest most of the people I encounter aside from my parents and what I read on this forum feel that this whole thing is blown out of proportion. So it’s funny to read here how people are so upset about his lack of doing anything. While in my day to day all I hear is how he’s going to flush the toilet down the economy any day now and he should just leave everything open.
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Old 11-21-2020, 02:05 AM   #4879
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So emergency FDA approval of the Pfizer vaccine expected to take about three weeks.

I am disappointed that no one found a way for regulators to be embedded in the teams developing the vaccines such that their review could be essentially contemporaneous. Or maybe that happened, I don’t really know. Since production is happening regardless maybe not that big a deal.

It’s easy to focus on the notion that it may take a year for everyone get vaccinated but what if most everyone with co-morbidities and other high risk groups are vaccinated within three months. Shouldn’t hospitalizations plummet?
They did, as much as is possible, and it will be the fastest approval of any vaccine in the history of ever. By about 5 years. How do you think the usual time frame from candidate to vaccine was reduced so dramatically. 3 more weeks is nothing, in the usual approval timeframe.
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Old 11-21-2020, 02:51 AM   #4880
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The onus to prove something is a vector should fall to the government, not the other way around. They are disrupting our lives and those actions should not be made without sufficient evidence which they have yet to demonstrate.

People keep talking about his inaction but we're doing fine.



There is essentially 2/3 to 3/4 of cases unaccounted for. This can be for many reasons.


I'm sorry if your life is disrupted but I don't believe you can say with any confidence what is potentially a dangerous activity or not. With what we know about how it spreads, there are a lot of activities that seem like there is a high possibility and we should be cognizant of that and potentially have restrictions there. These don't necessarily have to be long term restrictions or a complete shut down, but we are currently in a pretty sizable growth period where things can get out of hand quickly.


About the doing fine part, I seem to remember hearing that we had about 75 ICU beds put aside for Covid. We are in the high 50s to 60s. With a growing amount of cases. How long until we are pushing past that number and making tough decisions with limited bed space. Doing fine now, ok. How about in 2 weeks? If you make decisions when things have already gone badly, you are in for a world of hurt. I find viewpoints like this incredibly shortsighted. We really don't comprehend how quickly things like this can get out of our control, and that is with very readily accessible examples where it has already happened.
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