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Old 11-19-2020, 04:38 PM   #4721
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#### me.
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Old 11-19-2020, 04:43 PM   #4722
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Sonofabitc...
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Old 11-19-2020, 04:51 PM   #4723
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I rescind my comment of a promising trend yesterday.
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Old 11-19-2020, 04:54 PM   #4724
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Iím hearing rumours about lockdown in BC today. Yesterday, the Premier restricted inter regional travel and today, Iím hearing religious and cultural gatherings.
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Old 11-19-2020, 04:55 PM   #4725
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I rescind my comment of a promising trend yesterday.
And I wish you had been right (just so we are clear).
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Old 11-19-2020, 04:57 PM   #4726
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Also, the death of another individual in their 30's today. That's four deaths out of ~8000 cases for the 30-39 age range. I know it still means that you have a 99.95% chance of survival, but when you change that to a 1/2000 chance of dying... no thanks.
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Old 11-19-2020, 05:02 PM   #4727
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Tragic as that is, that’s a flawed way of measuring in the risk.
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Old 11-19-2020, 05:08 PM   #4728
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Also, the death of another individual in their 30's today. That's four deaths out of ~8000 cases for the 30-39 age range. I know it still means that you have a 99.95% chance of survival, but when you change that to a 1/2000 chance of dying... no thanks.
Its quite likely the death rate for that age cohort is actually lower. Probably lots of asymptomatic or minimal symptom people got missed on the positive case count, but I doubt any deaths got missed.
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Old 11-19-2020, 05:22 PM   #4729
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And unlikely these are just your average 30-39 year olds. We need to know The co-morbidities to assess actual risk
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Old 11-19-2020, 05:23 PM   #4730
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https://research.ucalgary.ca/news/uc...ainst-covid-19

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UCalgary researchers from the Cumming School of Medicine, Faculty of Science, and Schulich School of Engineering; Advancing Canadian Wastewater Assets (ACWA), The City of Calgary, and Alberta Health Services (AHS) have teamed up to test Calgary wastewater for early signs of COVID-19 cases. The team has received Canadian Institutes of Health Research funding to pursue the research, beginning immediately.

The group will be analyzing wastewater from The City of Calgaryís wastewater treatment plants as well as samples collected from various locations in the wastewater collection system to find areas where active cases of COVID-19 are beginning to appear.
Itís happening in Saskatoon as well. Itís not looking good there either.

https://news.usask.ca/articles/resea...water-data.php
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Old 11-19-2020, 05:25 PM   #4731
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https://www.citynews1130.com/2020/11...modelling/amp/

More derp from the feds.

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One of Canada’s top doctors says COVID-19 pandemic modelling didn’t see just how much human behaviour would play into the second wave, adding ‘COVID fatigue’ is real.

Deputy Chief Public Health Officer Doctor Howard Njoo said in the spring, modelling was focused on the technical aspects of the virus.

“Maybe one thing we didn’t take into account, and it’s something we’re learning about, that we’re all suffering from — ‘COVID fatigue,’” Njoo said.
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Old 11-19-2020, 05:32 PM   #4732
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Also, the death of another individual in their 30's today. That's four deaths out of ~8000 cases for the 30-39 age range. I know it still means that you have a 99.95% chance of survival, but when you change that to a 1/2000 chance of dying... no thanks.
Using that method of risk quantification your odds of dying in a car crash are 1/110
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Old 11-19-2020, 05:35 PM   #4733
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Kenney will dither long enough, that by the time the holidays roll around, this will be a complete disaster and no one is going to see any family.
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Old 11-19-2020, 05:42 PM   #4734
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Using that method of risk quantification your odds of dying in a car crash are 1/110
My chances of dying in a car crash over the next 60 years might be 1/110 (trusting that value).

My chances of dying in just 60 days from a COVID diagnosis are the stats I'm more concerned about...
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Old 11-19-2020, 05:44 PM   #4735
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Kenney will dither long enough, that by the time the holidays roll around, this will be a complete disaster and no one is going to see any family.
Regardless of whether Kenney does or doesn't do anything, don't you think it's clear that people shouldn't be having family gatherings a month from now?

I would hope that people don't need action from Kenney to inform that decision.
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Old 11-19-2020, 05:47 PM   #4736
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Regardless of whether Kenney does or doesn't do anything, don't you think it's clear that people shouldn't be having family gatherings a month from now?

I would hope that people don't need action from Kenney to inform that decision.
Yes I think Christmas is a write off at this point unfortunately, regardless of a shutdown. Very disappointing indeed.

I know we shouldnt get myopic but those numbers today...yeesh.
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Old 11-19-2020, 05:47 PM   #4737
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Regardless of whether Kenney does or doesn't do anything, don't you think it's clear that people shouldn't be having family gatherings a month from now?

I would hope that people don't need action from Kenney to inform that decision.
People are going to ignore gathering advice at Christmas, I think it's almost a foregone conclusion. Whether it adds another leg to this parabolic rise is up to the province.

If we had a 28 day shutdown now, things would be suppressed enough to start tracing again and the gathering that will inevitably take place won't be massive accelerators.
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Old 11-19-2020, 05:50 PM   #4738
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Are they reporting the number of tests? It's annoying that it always seems to be so hard to find that info.

It's hard to put the number of positives into perspective without that info.
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Old 11-19-2020, 05:57 PM   #4739
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My chances of dying in a car crash over the next 60 years might be 1/110 (trusting that value).

My chances of dying in just 60 days from a COVID diagnosis are the stats I'm more concerned about...
If you are 30-39 your odds of dying from Covid in the next sixty days are about as close to 0 as you could get.
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Old 11-19-2020, 05:59 PM   #4740
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If you are 30-39 your odds of dying from Covid in the next sixty days are about as close to 0 as you could get.
But what are your chances of spreading it to someone who might die of COVID or someone who might spread it to someone who might die of COVID?
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