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Old 06-15-2020, 11:16 PM   #1
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Default Coronavirus All-Purpose Thread: The Second Wave

There's a difference though with healthcare and all virus/bacteria and the general community with coronavirus.

I mean the most obvious being that these papers appear to be about protection. One-way transmission from infectious patients to mask-wearing healthcare workers. It's not looking at putting masks on the infectious patients, which might be the most important part of coronavirus - stopping asymptomatic infected people from unknowingly infecting others. Don't look at a mask as protection for yourself, look at others wearing masks as protection from them.

Also TheSutterDynasty's posted criticism of cloth-masks is specific to inadequate sterilization in lower-resource and emergency situations. We know we can sterilize coronavirus with rinsing it in hot water and soap or using a washing machine with detergent.

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Old 06-16-2020, 12:08 AM   #2
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It would be wonderful if the world was that simplistic.

Unfortunately there are hundreds (thousands?) of factors that affect the numbers of cases and deaths in one region compared to another. The virus has different mutations, you have a vastly different population, you have cultures that listen to their Goverment far better, climate, lockdown strategies, the list goes on.

The idea of research is to control for these variables. For that you need randomized controlled studies with homogeneous groups. The study was far from that, and the summaries of the RCTs we do have suggest that cloth masks increase the wearer's risk and surgical masks do not change the risk.

That doesn't mean don't wear it. It means practice good mask hygiene and for God's sake stay home if you're sick.
For the most part, it is that simple. Obviously more research is great, but we're seeing an abundantly clear correlation between mask wearing and low infection/mortality rates. Thailand, Japan, South Korea, Macau, Hong Kong, Vietnam, Malaysia, Cambodia, and the Philippines all had cases in January and all had high mask usage by then too. Together they have a population of nearly 510 million people, yet they've had under 2,500 people die of Covid. That's fewer dead than the state of Connecticut and half as many dead as in Quebec.

And most of those places had much less stringent government shutdowns than we've seen in North America and Europe. Are there other factors? Sure. But some of the known risk factors (population density/urbanization, average age of the population, etc.) are present in these countries and would imply higher expected mortality rates. Yet Japan which has the oldest population in the world has 925 Covid deaths in a country of 127 million people.
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Old 06-16-2020, 12:38 AM   #3
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For the most part, it is that simple. Obviously more research is great, but we're seeing an abundantly clear correlation between mask wearing and low infection/mortality rates. Thailand, Japan, South Korea, Macau, Hong Kong, Vietnam, Malaysia, Cambodia, and the Philippines all had cases in January and all had high mask usage by then too. Together they have a population of nearly 510 million people, yet they've had under 2,500 people die of Covid. That's fewer dead than the state of Connecticut and half as many dead as in Quebec.

And most of those places had much less stringent government shutdowns than we've seen in North America and Europe. Are there other factors? Sure. But some of the known risk factors (population density/urbanization, average age of the population, etc.) are present in these countries and would imply higher expected mortality rates. Yet Japan which has the oldest population in the world has 925 Covid deaths in a country of 127 million people.

There are so many variables to that tho. It's probably a combination of mask wearing, highly compliant societies, societies where people stay home when sick, societies who are okay with government tracking/tracing.

For the record, I wear a mask when I'm at a public indoor place and I carry sanitizer like it's blood.
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Old 06-16-2020, 12:44 AM   #4
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Looking at Arizona's data, it's pretty hard to ascribe much of what we're seeing to an increase in testing. Up until mid-May, there was an inverse relationship between the # of tests and the percent that tested positive, which is what you'd normally expect. Extensive testing will normally test a higher percentage of healthy people than limited testing will.

So through late March and into April there were few tests and about 9-11% came back positive. Then they ramped up testing from ~10K a week to ~40K a week in May and the percent dropped to 5-6%. But since that happened, the percent positive has rocketed back up despite fairly steady testing numbers:


May 3-9: 37K tests; 5% positive

May 10-16: 45K tests; 5% positive

May 17-24: 37K tests ; 6% positive

May 25-31: 43K tests; 9% positive

June 1-7: 52K tests; 12% positive

June 8-14: 42K tests; 14% positive
You're presuming testing is random.

You're also failing to take into account behavior when stating that weather does not decrease infection rates. It's the weather got better, but people also began gathering in large numbers. If the weather had been bad things would be much worse.
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Old 06-16-2020, 04:30 AM   #5
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This is unbelievably ignorant.

I can't speak for everyone, but I follow public health orders and wear a mask at work. But because of limited PPE I get one a day. According to evidence, I'm likely increasing my risk of infection by wearing it.

I don't wear it when it's not mandated because it's not evidence based. So maybe understand there are many reasons to not don one.

And besides, many are low risk for covid complications and aren't in contact with anyone who is. So if you're accepting the risk of you contracting Covid by going shopping then that's on you. Your risk is there whether others mask or not.
The only ignorant thing here is that reply. Some people have no option but to go out despite the fact that they are higher risk. If most are wearing masks it lowers the risk for everyone. Your reply was insanely ignorant.

There's plenty of studies and info that show cloth masks help. So what you have are some saying it doesn't help and more saying it does. Now if it helps even a little why is that such an issue. If it turns our that it doesn't make a difference, and we find that out down the road what harm was there? Doesn't seem to be hurting Vietnam.

It's ego and people feeling odd about wearing them. I stand by that. There's really no other reason.

There's evidence that you increase your chances of being infected by wearing them? There really isn't. There's more evidence disputing that than supporting it.

I mean one of the studies you linked is studying healthcare workers wearing cloth masks. Of course they shouldn't wear cloth masks in a healthcare setting for a shift. We're talking about a trip to the grocery store not taking care of a patient for hours. I didnt read the entire article but unless they were studying the prevention of infectious disease from healthcare workers to patients it's irrelevant to the argument, because wearing a mask is supposed to stop you from spreading it. Not stop you from getting it, though it may help.

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Old 06-16-2020, 04:42 AM   #6
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I don't think ego is the problem. I think the government's campaign of misinformation on masks has contributed to this.
Most people couldn't even tell you what the government recommended or didn't.I agree the powers that be didn't do anyone anyone any favours and sure some people may believe that, but I don't agree that's the main reason.

We all know that wearing a mask won't necessarily stop you from getting it, it's to stop you from spreading it. If we all do it, it reduces spread.

A lot of it is ego and I stand by that. You see it, people laugh it off, like the virus is nothing, they feel weird wearing them, they aren't worried etc etc. I've heard people say those very things.

A poster above said basically asked why people that are low risk have to wear them.
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Old 06-16-2020, 07:49 AM   #7
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A group of doctors has written an open letter to the government of Alberta asking that people be required to wear masks in all indoor spaces outside the home, in crowds, and on public transit.
"Those jurisdictions that have a high masking rate actually are able to contain things without lockdowns and that's our biggest concern, is that we start reopening, we see a surge in cases and we are forced to go back to the strict lockdown measures that we had in March," said Dr. Amy Tan, a family doctor with the University of Calgary's Cumming School of Medicine.
"So right now what we're doing is really encouraging Albertans to wear masks in public places particularly if they're going to be in a space where there's many people together," she said Monday. "[We] really encourage Albertans to go and pick up the masks that are being made available to them so that they can take this important public health measure."
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calga...613492?cmp=rss


I'd be all for a requirement to wear them. Not outdoors, but in stores and transit.
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Old 06-16-2020, 08:03 AM   #8
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I don't think ego is the problem. I think the government's campaign of misinformation on masks has contributed to this.
I agree that was a problem, but aren't we beyond that now?

Now it's the guy in the US turning masks into a political issue like everything else. If Trump started wearing a mask and speaking its praise I suspect usage would go up.
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Old 06-16-2020, 08:08 AM   #9
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I wonder if in those hot places it's almost a reverse effect. In Canada, we stay indoors all winter to stay warm, which means more people in indoor spaces. In the hot States, they stay indoors all summer to avoid the heat.

I get sick every time I visit Phoenix because of the air conditioning being kept at 60F all year round
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Old 06-16-2020, 08:08 AM   #10
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So New Zealand, who we’ve seen got down to zero cases and opened right back up, now has two confirmed cases. Travellers from the UK.... who were given special permission to leave an isolation facility to visit a dying family member. Hopefully several steps were taken to ensure it didn’t spread from them. Kind of mind blowing to me though.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/new-ze...ases-1.5613516
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Old 06-16-2020, 08:40 AM   #11
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So New Zealand, who we’ve seen got down to zero cases and opened right back up, now has two confirmed cases. Travellers from the UK.... who were given special permission to leave an isolation facility to visit a dying family member. Hopefully several steps were taken to ensure it didn’t spread from them. Kind of mind blowing to me though.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/new-ze...ases-1.5613516
Really shows how a goal of zero cases would be almost impossible to maintain for somewhere like Canada.
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Old 06-16-2020, 08:47 AM   #12
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Researchers in England say they have the first evidence that a drug can improve COVID-19 survival: A steroid called dexamethasone reduced deaths by up to one-third in severely ill hospitalized patients.

Results were announced Tuesday and researchers said they would publish them soon. The study is a large, strict test that randomly assigned 2,104 patients to get the drug and compared them with 4,321 patients getting only usual care.

The drug was given either orally or through an IV. It reduced deaths by 35 per cent in patients who needed treatment with breathing machines and by 20 per cent in those only needing supplemental oxygen. It did not appear to help less ill patients.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/covid...613706?cmp=rss


Good to have something working for the very ill.
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Old 06-16-2020, 09:11 AM   #13
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What I don’t understand is what stops an uptick from being continuous exponential growth?
Buy in from the general population when it comes to physical distancing, socializing, sanitation, maintaining cohorts etc. If we (public) forget or ignore all that and let if become a free for all again then things become exponential. If we continue to abide by recommendations then we have a chance to keep outbreaks contained and any overall growth linear rather than exponential.
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Old 06-16-2020, 10:04 AM   #14
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For the most part, it is that simple. Obviously more research is great, but we're seeing an abundantly clear correlation between mask wearing and low infection/mortality rates. Thailand, Japan, South Korea, Macau, Hong Kong, Vietnam, Malaysia, Cambodia, and the Philippines all had cases in January and all had high mask usage by then too. Together they have a population of nearly 510 million people, yet they've had under 2,500 people die of Covid. That's fewer dead than the state of Connecticut and half as many dead as in Quebec.

And most of those places had much less stringent government shutdowns than we've seen in North America and Europe. Are there other factors? Sure. But some of the known risk factors (population density/urbanization, average age of the population, etc.) are present in these countries and would imply higher expected mortality rates. Yet Japan which has the oldest population in the world has 925 Covid deaths in a country of 127 million people.
New York has mandated masks. That was what the original study was about.

How are they doing for infection rate?
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Old 06-16-2020, 10:09 AM   #15
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Where is there evidence that you are likely increasing your risk of infection by wearing it?

There is certainly speculation that bacterial lung infections may go up and speculation that touching could lead to more surface contact infection but those theories seem just as poorly supported as the ones advocating mask wearing to reduce spread.

Given the lack of scientific studies I think observing the policies of successful nations and replicating then to the extent possible makes a lot of sense.
I expect this from others in this thread but not you GGG. It was right in the post.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4420971/

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Participants
1607 hospital HCWs aged ≥18 years working full-time in selected high-risk wards.

Intervention
Hospital wards were randomised to: medical masks, cloth masks or a control group (usual practice, which included mask wearing). Participants used the mask on every shift for 4 consecutive weeks.

Results
The rates of all infection outcomes were highest in the cloth mask arm, with the rate of ILI statistically significantly higher in the cloth mask arm (relative risk (RR)=13.00, 95% CI 1.69 to 100.07) compared with the medical mask arm. Cloth masks also had significantly higher rates of ILI compared with the control arm. An analysis by mask use showed ILI (RR=6.64, 95% CI 1.45 to 28.65) and laboratory-confirmed virus (RR=1.72, 95% CI 1.01 to 2.94) were significantly higher in the cloth masks group compared with the medical masks group. Penetration of cloth masks by particles was almost 97% and medical masks 44%.
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Old 06-16-2020, 10:20 AM   #16
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New York has mandated masks. That was what the original study was about.

How are they doing for infection rate?
New cases and deaths in New York are down about 90% from 6 weeks ago, despite a weak law (masks are only required where you can't maintain physical distancing) and relatively poor compliance.

It's hilarious, the same people who want to open things up quickly are the ones most against compulsory mask wearing. If you want to get the economy going ASAP, there's a very clear way to do that with the lowest risk and it's through widespread mask usage. I guess the economic and societal damage that lockdowns cause stops becoming important if you have the wear a mask when you're out of the house.
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Old 06-16-2020, 10:38 AM   #17
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I expect this from others in this thread but not you GGG. It was right in the post.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4420971/
The control arm of that study wore masks though. They couldn't have a non-mask control group, because it was considered unethical (that should tell you something). So the control group used standard practice which was a combination of cloth and medical grade masks in situations where masks were necessary. So essentially they determined that cloth masks are less effective than medical grade ones. Shocking...

Not to mention that's in a health care setting, which is going to have totally different levels and types of exposure than someone riding public transit or walking down the street.
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Old 06-16-2020, 11:32 AM   #18
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I'd like to see more research on shields. My intuition is that shields can protect yourself, and masks can prevent spread to others but not be as effective at protecting yourself (especially cloth ones)
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Old 06-16-2020, 11:34 AM   #19
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So New Zealand, who we’ve seen got down to zero cases and opened right back up, now has two confirmed cases. Travellers from the UK.... who were given special permission to leave an isolation facility to visit a dying family member. Hopefully several steps were taken to ensure it didn’t spread from them. Kind of mind blowing to me though.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/new-ze...ases-1.5613516
Pretty crazy. I guess both isolation zones and airports are hotbeds for infection.

I don't see any nation with non-militarized land borders getting down to zero.
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Old 06-16-2020, 11:54 AM   #20
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To add regarding the cloth mask discussion is that ina way its a new kind of herd immunity. If one guy is wearing it, its borderline useless, unless he sneezes giant droplets or something. But if everyone is wearing one, the level of protection goes up exponentially.

Individually the only way to give yourself an adequate amount of protection is to wear an N95 or higher mask.

But as a society we can protect ourselves and each other if we take the recommendations from public health and wear masks indoors or when social distancing isn't possible.

The problem is apathy. "Well if nobody else is wearing one, whats the point?" Hence the cultural aspect of mask wearing in Asian countries.

I would like to see more data on the consequences of adequate vs inadequate mask etiquette. Plus the differences in recommend etiquette for cloth mask in Home Depot vs medical mask in the hospital room of a Covid-19 patient.

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