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Old 06-01-2020, 10:49 AM   #21
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There are certainly more. I'm intentionally not mentioning one who I'm trying to sign on the DL...
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Old 06-01-2020, 10:49 AM   #22
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There are certainly more. I'm intentionally not mentioning one who I'm trying to sign on the DL...
Why? lets get the name out there so we can correct things that are clearly incorrect.
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Old 06-01-2020, 10:52 AM   #23
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Basically it's players who didn't meet the minimum games played (10). Let's get the list together and we'll figure it out.
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Old 06-01-2020, 10:52 AM   #24
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These players have always been 50 overall in the past if they've played 10 or fewer games in a season. I see no reason to change that now.

I know Danny DeKeyser from Phoenix is probably one
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Old 06-01-2020, 10:55 AM   #25
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I always dislike the way ratings packages hammer injured players. A bit of back luck doesn't mean a player is a 50 OVR. Sure, take a massive hit to their DU rating but that doesnt' mean they flat out can't play hockey again.
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Old 06-01-2020, 10:58 AM   #26
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Sure it's tough for teams to have to deal with dead cap, especially Tampa who's being hammered with like $15 million, but I think "fixing" guys' ratings adds a lot of volatility to the process that shouldn't be there. With the randomness of the defense ratings who's gonna say a guy like DeKeyser will be a 69 with absolute certainty when guys like Murphy and Borowiecki are 72-73? And other guys like Larsson and Hjalmarsson are 66?

And with Byfuglien, whose situation is way up in the air with his injuries... who's to say that he shouldn't be a 50 at this point?

I think we just have to live with it.
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Old 06-01-2020, 11:07 AM   #27
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There is already volatility. Look at a guy like Tarasenko. He played 10 games... why isnt he a 50 OVR?
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Old 06-01-2020, 11:12 AM   #28
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There is already volatility. Look at a guy like Tarasenko. He played 10 games... why isnt he a 50 OVR?
I think it might be once they're 10 games they're not 50 OV? Not sure, Dekeyser played 8
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Old 06-01-2020, 11:13 AM   #29
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Yeah I think Aidan is right. It's a weird system but it's the one we've got, right?
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Old 06-01-2020, 11:18 AM   #30
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Originally Posted by TheScorpion View Post
Sure it's tough for teams to have to deal with dead cap, especially Tampa who's being hammered with like $15 million, but I think "fixing" guys' ratings adds a lot of volatility to the process that shouldn't be there. With the randomness of the defense ratings who's gonna say a guy like DeKeyser will be a 69 with absolute certainty when guys like Murphy and Borowiecki are 72-73? And other guys like Larsson and Hjalmarsson are 66?

And with Byfuglien, whose situation is way up in the air with his injuries... who's to say that he shouldn't be a 50 at this point?

I think we just have to live with it.
Hey hey. Let’s not exaggerate. It’s more like 13.5 million

Selfishly, I hope there is a way to lose some of it, especially if a new GM is handed a team, but I do understand having a streamlined process. Just sucks for a first year. Probably have to treat it as a wash, since that is a good chunk of the cap.
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Old 06-01-2020, 11:20 AM   #31
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Also if LA got away with nulling Mike Richards contract with just cause (*cough cough*) maybe a way could be found.
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Old 06-01-2020, 11:24 AM   #32
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Part of it is maintaining the consequences for signing players to bad deals. Buff was signed to a max term, max $ deal as a free agent. I realize it isn't the current GM that did that, but when GMs are making those calls, they should be assessing risk factors such as this.
The Buff situation is unique though. A little different from someone who played just 8 games just due to injury.
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Old 06-01-2020, 11:34 AM   #33
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I think it might be once they're 10 games they're not 50 OV? Not sure, Dekeyser played 8
Right but what if he only played 9? I feel like its wrong to put him at a 50 OVR
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Old 06-01-2020, 12:07 PM   #34
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Overall I’m happy with the forwards. Pacioretty and Pastrnak with big increases. Perron stayed at 72. Atkinson, Krejci and Granlund all stay in the 70s.

The goalie ratings leave me scratching my head. I planned to start Khudobin and bring Merzlikins in as the backup. Then switch roles next year. Khudobin had another monster year and he gets rated down. Voodoo.

The defence is a mess but I’ll straighten that out.
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Old 06-01-2020, 12:16 PM   #35
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There is already volatility. Look at a guy like Tarasenko. He played 10 games... why isnt he a 50 OVR?
I wish he was!

One of my strategies is acquiring guys with expiring contracts that I know will rate down. Lock them up cheap while I can!

Rask 2 year ago is a perfect example. Another is not locking up Trouba last year when he was a stud and now I can sign him cheaper.
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Old 06-01-2020, 12:52 PM   #36
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Excuse my post, not trying to start an argument, just clarification.

Was this the only set of ratings, or are there any others out there? I know you mentioned that nothing is perfect, and not to look specifically at OVs, which I agree on, but isn't it wise to at minimum wait a week or two and see if anything else is better than this set? Just my opinion. Normally the ratings are based on a 3 year average, whereas these are most definitely not even close to that sphere. In what world is Zibenijad the 2nd best player in the league? If based on stats, The big German kid should be best this year. There are a bunch of players that are "off" on this set. Is it possible to wait and see if anything better comes along or will that somehow directly affect league plans?
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Old 06-01-2020, 12:58 PM   #37
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Quote:
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Excuse my post, not trying to start an argument, just clarification.

Was this the only set of ratings, or are there any others out there? I know you mentioned that nothing is perfect, and not to look specifically at OVs, which I agree on, but isn't it wise to at minimum wait a week or two and see if anything else is better than this set? Just my opinion. Normally the ratings are based on a 3 year average, whereas these are most definitely not even close to that sphere. In what world is Zibenijad the 2nd best player in the league? If based on stats, The big German kid should be best this year. There are a bunch of players that are "off" on this set. Is it possible to wait and see if anything better comes along or will the somehow directly affect league plans?
So a few points
- There is one other ratings package out there. It is the paid one that we've reviewed and rejected 3 times.
- There are no other packages out there, and no posts that I can find suggesting any are forthcoming
- We have not used a 3 year average for years. Our approach has been to use most recent year performance for a while now. What a player did 3 years ago has little predictive value in what they will do next season. This isn't a change in approach - it's the approach we've had for a long time now.
- OVR doesn't mean Zib is the 2nd best player. Again, OVR is just a mathematical calculation of the attributes. The attributes are what matters. The reason why his OVR is so high though is because he has strong ratings across the board. Historically he was a strong defensive player and not as strong offensive guy. This past season he put up 75 points in 57 games, one of the highest PPGs in the league. So high PPG and elite defensive player = a very high rating. To further unpack, Zib has a 89 DF rating, whereas, Draisaitl has a 62. And I think that's fair.

The chances of a ratings package coming along and being better (how do we define better) than this one is slim. So we'll stick with this one.

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Old 06-01-2020, 01:02 PM   #38
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Thanks for the question, Cheese, and for the response Jiri. Definitely helps clear out the process.

Players wont get re-rated through the season, correct? And if a player retires in the real world, is he required to retire in the league as well?

For instance, if Engelland (69 rating) retires, will I have to get him to retire, or can I use him for the year still, and if Williams (64 rating) retires, can I approach that differently and get him to retire?

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Old 06-01-2020, 01:05 PM   #39
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I would add, I think there are actually very few outliers. If you dig into the attributes, you can often pinpoint why someone is lower/higher than they should be. These ratings packages use a mathematical approach. So while they don't share their secret sauce, it theoretically removes human subjectivity. And I think one of the things GMs should be doing, specifically when it comes to contracts and free agents, is evaluating if someone's rating is being boosted by one attribute. You have one player with a 70 and another with a 70 and they can perform very differently base don the attributes. There are good value 70 players and bad value ones. That's part of the game.
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Old 06-01-2020, 01:50 PM   #40
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Im fine with the ratings but Panarin ....wasnt expecting a guy like Rust to be rated better, win some and lose some.
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