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Old 11-22-2020, 12:21 PM   #801
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In the US, a country with enormous economic and social scaling capacity.
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Old 11-22-2020, 12:28 PM   #802
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In the US.

Any sources for projections in Canada?
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In the US, a country with enormous economic and social scaling capacity.
This would still have a huge positive impact on Canada. Having one of the countries with the largest outbreak in the world right on our doorstep has been devastating to our economy. Having them returning to normal would be huge for Canada too.
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Old 11-22-2020, 12:28 PM   #803
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This would still have a huge positive impact on Canada. Having one of the countries with the largest outbreak in the world right on our doorstep has been devastating to our economy. Having them returning to normal would be huge for Canada too.
That's a fair point and most likely to work out in our favour with a Biden presidency.
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Old 11-22-2020, 12:32 PM   #804
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This would still have a huge positive impact on Canada. Having one of the countries with the largest outbreak in the world right on our doorstep has been devastating to our economy. Having them returning to normal would be huge for Canada too.
This whole time I’ve assumed we’d ‘finish’ months ahead of the States, due to their overall situation. Gladly come in second, as then we can get things back to normal sooner. Which involves an open border.
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Old 11-22-2020, 12:41 PM   #805
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This whole time I’ve assumed we’d ‘finish’ months ahead of the States, due to their overall situation. Gladly come in second, as then we can get things back to normal sooner. Which involves an open border.
The US is going to struggle with a huge amount of anti-vaxers, probably more so given how Trump has politicized it. I wouldn't be surprised if they are still suffering with overcapacity hospitals a year after a vaccine arrives.
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Old 11-22-2020, 01:46 PM   #806
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The US is going to struggle with a huge amount of anti-vaxers, probably more so given how Trump has politicized it. I wouldn't be surprised if they are still suffering with overcapacity hospitals a year after a vaccine arrives.
I still maintain that we should weaponize the cure and roll out the troops. Like X-Men 3.
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Old 11-22-2020, 02:10 PM   #807
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The US is going to struggle with a huge amount of anti-vaxers, probably more so given how Trump has politicized it. I wouldn't be surprised if they are still suffering with overcapacity hospitals a year after a vaccine arrives.
I, too, think people give the US far too much credit. They've handled the pandemic extremely poorly up to this point, and all signs point to that continuing through vaccinations.

The new federal government will help, but they still will have resistance from almost half of their population and that includes many state and local leaders. Also, they don't really have much experience with public health care, which is what this is when the government will be paying for it.
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Old 11-22-2020, 04:01 PM   #808
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The US is going to struggle with a huge amount of anti-vaxers, probably more so given how Trump has politicized it. I wouldn't be surprised if they are still suffering with overcapacity hospitals a year after a vaccine arrives.
I doubt this. With the effectiveness of the vaccine and the new data around the immune response being longer lasting than we thought, you won't need as high vaccination rates to reach critical mass. The people that refuse to vaccinate will probably not be enough to cause a fundamental disruption in the vaccination strategy.
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Old 11-22-2020, 04:04 PM   #809
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I, too, think people give the US far too much credit. They've handled the pandemic extremely poorly up to this point, and all signs point to that continuing through vaccinations.

The new federal government will help, but they still will have resistance from almost half of their population and that includes many state and local leaders. Also, they don't really have much experience with public health care, which is what this is when the government will be paying for it.
I haven’t seen anyone giving the US “credit”... and this isn’t the thread for continuing about whether or not antivaxers will be an issue.

I thought that article was “good news” given the absolute cluster #### that country has been through this.
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Old 11-22-2020, 06:47 PM   #810
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If a vaccine is out, I genuinely can't see many politicians being able to keep restrictions, of any substantial severity, in place after May anyways. In fact, as soon word gets out that the vaccine has hit the most vulnerable groups, populations will simply stop distancing.
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Old 11-23-2020, 12:14 AM   #811
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I haven’t seen anyone giving the US “credit”... and this isn’t the thread for continuing about whether or not antivaxers will be an issue.

I thought that article was “good news” given the absolute cluster #### that country has been through this.
While some are saying that the US are going to soak up all the vaccines and Canada is going tp have to get in line behind them, I am suggesting that will not be the case.

The good news is Canada will likely be better organized and should be able to get and distribute the vaccines efficiently.
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Old 11-23-2020, 02:29 AM   #812
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While some are saying that the US are going to soak up all the vaccines and Canada is going tp have to get in line behind them, I am suggesting that will not be the case.

The good news is Canada will likely be better organized and should be able to get and distribute the vaccines efficiently.
I believe Canada also has its own manufacturing capacity for vaccines. The manufacturer might be an American company, but I doubt Canada would allow for the export of vaccines manufactured here to the US so that the drug companies can satisfy US demand prior to Canadian demand.
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Old 11-23-2020, 06:40 AM   #813
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One advantage Canada has, is it can have a more coordinated national effort to distribute the vaccines while in the US each state is more or less on its own to develop a vaccine distribution program.

Canada has less people than the US and is more spread out. More and more vaccines are going to become available. I’m confident that life in Canada will be back to normal by May or June.

Oxford is now showing 79-90% efficacy and only needs to be stored in a fridge (2 to 8 degrees C). The 90% efficacy trial also involved only a half dose followed by a full dose 28 days later so it could go further.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55040635
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Old 11-23-2020, 10:43 AM   #814
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Oxford is now showing 79-90% efficacy and only needs to be stored in a fridge (2 to 8 degrees C). The 90% efficacy trial also involved only a half dose followed by a full dose 28 days later so it could go further.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55040635
Interesting results from that trial. The majority of trial participants received 2 full doses, and that only showed 62% efficacy. However, they had a small arm that did the 1/2 dose then full dose that showed 90%. But it was only 2,700 people, so it's hard to know how much you can extrapolate from that. I've seen speculation that the full first dose might have created some immunity to the adenovirus, making the 2nd dose not work as well (I believe the Russian vaccine used different adenoviruses in each dose to get around this). That could also make booster shots problematic if they end up being necessary.

Regardless, it's great news. This vaccine has by far the most worldwide production capacity (I read something about 3B doses in 2021) and it's extremely cheap and easy to transport, which will make vaccinating less wealthy countries much easier. And if they end up using the 1/2 first dose regimen, that immediately increases the # of available doses by 33%. Hopefully the 90% numbers hold up over larger samples.
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Old 11-23-2020, 09:21 PM   #815
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Even at 70% efficacy and 50% vaccination it gets you to no spread with the restriction level we had during the summer and fall.

That’s also 1.5 billion more vaccinations next year. Combined with the 1 billion vaccinations from Maderna / Pfizer that’s 2.5 billion petiole getting vaccinated and 2 billion immune. Add in Russia and China’s numbers and that is probably half of the world being vaccinated in the next 12 months
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Old 11-23-2020, 09:38 PM   #816
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I mentioned it in the other thread, but the 1/2 dose trial was actually an error in first round of dosing. They were wondering why people were getting milder reactions than before and then realized they gave them half doses. And that version ended up being much more effective.

I do wonder how that will play with regulators though. The 1/2 dose group wasn't that large (only about 2,700 people) and it's not clear if it ended up being a representative sample. If those receiving 1/2 doses weren't representative of the population (i.e. only a few testing sites, skewed age demographics, etc.), there are a ton of other factors that could've influenced the efficacy data that have nothing to do with the dosage. Particularly since it sounds like the 1/2 dose group was UK only, while the placebo group they were measured against was UK and Brazil.

Hopefully it's far enough above 50% (which was the benchmark efficacy) that regulators won't be too concerned about it as long as the safety data looks good.
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Old 11-24-2020, 10:07 AM   #817
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I had posted in the all purpose Covid-19 thread about my anxieties with cases going up and our son due at any moment.

Quick update: He's here! Arrived early Monday morning and everyone is doing well, although very tired. We're hoping to get discharged later on today. I'm still anxious being here in the hospital but the staff at Foothills has been great.

Now I can finally move my worries and anxieties into a whole new category...
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Old 11-24-2020, 10:24 AM   #818
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Can I get all the vaccines? Asking for a friend.
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Old 11-24-2020, 11:09 AM   #819
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I had posted in the all purpose Covid-19 thread about my anxieties with cases going up and our son due at any moment.

Quick update: He's here! Arrived early Monday morning and everyone is doing well, although very tired. We're hoping to get discharged later on today. I'm still anxious being here in the hospital but the staff at Foothills has been great.

Now I can finally move my worries and anxieties into a whole new category...
Enjoy.

When I had my first people would say "oh just enjoy this, it goes by too quickly". I thought to myself as I tried to get my baby girl to sleep at 3 am "#### you, this can't pass soon enough". Now 17 years later she is getting ready to leave for University and I have no idea where it all went.

So enjoy and don't sweat small stuff.
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Old 11-25-2020, 04:34 AM   #820
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I had posted in the all purpose Covid-19 thread about my anxieties with cases going up and our son due at any moment.

Quick update: He's here! Arrived early Monday morning and everyone is doing well, although very tired. We're hoping to get discharged later on today. I'm still anxious being here in the hospital but the staff at Foothills has been great.

Now I can finally move my worries and anxieties into a whole new category...
Now that's some good news that belongs in this thread. Congratulations!!
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