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Old 10-01-2020, 06:03 PM   #381
Enoch Root
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Tesla does use CANBUS at least in some capacity. But that's not the point, Tesla controls ALL their software and builds their own modules including the processors that is why they can seamlessly roll out over the air updates.

Tesla is taking the same approach with batteries, do everything in house on a massive scale. No other auto maker is doing this, I'm going to assume most people are not aware of this or know and just like to troll and say Tesla has no battery advantage.

Bob Lutz said exactly the same things, Tesla has no battery advantage, no software advantage, no economies of scale advantage. Said that when Audi, VW, Mercedes, Jaguar came out with their EVs Tesla would be in serious trouble. None of the models ended up with the range, performance or tech of a Tesla and have been a sales flop. So now the argument shifts to, oh but they didn't feel like being competitive but when they do Tesla is finished.
No one is saying Tesla doesn't have an advantage with batteries. Of course they do.

What I am saying is that, in order to justify their stock price, they need to be able to grow from 200,000 cars a year to 20,000,000.

I don't think you understand the logistical headwinds of that.
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Old 10-01-2020, 06:05 PM   #382
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It was widely stated that when the European and Asian manufacturers would come out with their electric car Tesla would die off.

That was a few years ago.
You seem very emotionally attached to Tesla
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Old 10-01-2020, 06:32 PM   #383
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How are the Gigafactory's not leveraging economies of scale? And Tesla is a top 5 tech company easily, by any measure. They are all in on software and have their own, in house ASICs.

Legacy autos are a jumbled mess of modules and software from dozens of sources good luck making all that work seamlessly like Tesla does with over the air updates. VW already delayed a model because of software.
What I meant by economies of scale is that, when you create software, you can scale it infinitely, with little cost. If your customers simply sign up online, you can scale almost infinitely.

Building cars doesn't work that way. Every car needs seats, and a windshield, and tires...

Also, most tech companies are global floaters and don't pay anywhere near their share of taxes. Tesla doesn't have that advantage either.

Tesla's product is based on tech. And the competitive advantage that they currently enjoy is a result of tech. But no, they do not have the same advantages that the other big tech companies (Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Google) have

That is the point.

They have a 'tech' multiple. But they don't have the same advantages that the (real) tech companies have. They can't build a limitless number of cars, no matter how much of a technological advantage they currently hold.

The challenges to manufacturing millions of automobiles profitably, don't simply disappear, just because they have some seamless software advantages.

Don't get me wrong - I am not saying that they are going to disappear in a couple years. Far from it. In fact, I expect them to be technological leaders in the industry for some time.

What I am saying that their stock price is priced BEYOND perfection.
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Old 10-01-2020, 09:05 PM   #384
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What I meant by economies of scale is that, when you create software, you can scale it infinitely, with little cost. If your customers simply sign up online, you can scale almost infinitely.
No you can't, the volume is limited by the number of devices out there. In the case of Apple their software success is directly linked to the devices they sell. Sure they can sell software for other devices, but that still doesn't make the market infinite. And you have to provide support and updates for said software the volume is not "free". It's a lucrative market for sure but hardly the infinite space you say it is. Consider how many software vendors are out there and how many are mega corporations, it's not many.

How about this, Tesla may end up licensing their autonomous tech. And Elon has said they would sell batteries to other auto makers but they need them all currently.
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Building cars doesn't work that way. Every car needs seats, and a windshield, and tires...
As does any company building cars.
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Also, most tech companies are global floaters and don't pay anywhere near their share of taxes. Tesla doesn't have that advantage either.
I don't know enough about this to say if it's an advantage or not.
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Tesla's product is based on tech. And the competitive advantage that they currently enjoy is a result of tech. But no, they do not have the same advantages that the other big tech companies (Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Google) have

That is the point.
But Tesla is not competing with those companies, so why compare? If Apple decides to make a car whatever advantage you think "tech" companies have will be gone.
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They have a 'tech' multiple. But they don't have the same advantages that the (real) tech companies have. They can't build a limitless number of cars, no matter how much of a technological advantage they currently hold.
Software vendors can't sell unlimited copies why do you think that? It's limited by demand and the number of devices people have. Is it easier to be a software only company? Probably, but again Tesla is not in that market possibly in the future.
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The challenges to manufacturing millions of automobiles profitably, don't simply disappear, just because they have some seamless software advantages.
I have never suggested this. But the software advantage Tesla has is massive. Their Gigafactory's are also a huge advantage in my view they can crank out gigawatts of storage way beyond what anyone else can do currently. And they are barely scratching the surface of full capacity.
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Don't get me wrong - I am not saying that they are going to disappear in a couple years. Far from it. In fact, I expect them to be technological leaders in the industry for some time.

What I am saying that their stock price is priced BEYOND perfection.
I'm tickled pink with their stock wish I had bought more. Is it over valued? Yea probably.

Here's what I know for sure, the auto sector does not tolerate new players. There have been no new nameplates that survived for long in what, the last 100 years? Many have come and gone or been bought out. For Tesla to even get this far says they are doing most everything right. My prediction, in 5 years Tesla will become the worlds most valuable corporation their stock will go past $5000.
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Old 10-02-2020, 11:24 AM   #385
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The stock price is a moot point because I think even Tesla knows it might be inflated, but while it sits there they'll take full advantage of it.

Talking in circles about how the stock price means they need to build x amount of cars is an argument that started to become meaningless as soon as the market decided that the stock price is fine with the delivery numbers that Tesla has been showing the past year.

When you keep hammering away at that specific point it just becomes a personal opinion, because it certainly isn't based on what the actual results are showing.

That being said, part of the stock hype is obviously based on just that. Hype from investors that don't understand what is going on. Those same investors considered battery day 'meh', but stock still hasn't crashed.

Deliveries are being announced today? The stock will probably see a slight bump. Might even climb. But after the split, the $5 billion sale, battery day, progress on all 3 factories they are building, I think we are far past the point of saying 'oh the price is too high and therefore Tesla will fail.'

Remember when Apple stock stayed flat despite their massive profits?
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Old 10-26-2020, 04:17 PM   #386
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https://www.forbes.com/sites/neilwin.../#4c11626e6705

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IHS data predicts by 2030, global electric sales – battery electric (BEV), Fuel Cells (FC) and plug-in hybrids - will account for 24.6% of the market, but ICE sales will notch up 75.4%. This includes hybrids, mild-hybrids, which use much battery power to improve ICE efficiency, and pure ICE vehicles. In Europe, electric sales storm to 38.7% by 2030, but that still leaves 61.2% of vehicles mainly powered by gasoline. In the U.S. by 2030, gasoline powered cars still account for nearly 80% of the market.
24% EV market share by 2030 is actually quite impressive IMO but I imagine that may disappoint some that are/were under the illusion that ICE was going to disappear quickly.
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Old 10-26-2020, 04:22 PM   #387
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I don't think that's to much of a stretch when you include hybrids.
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Old 10-26-2020, 04:53 PM   #388
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I don't think that's to much of a stretch when you include hybrids.
If we could get to a future where every new vehicle sold by 2030 was a hybrid, that would be of enormous help.

It would reduce tailpipe emissions by at least half.

That’s significant.
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Old 10-26-2020, 04:57 PM   #389
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Yup, all manufactures should try to have hybrids across the range by 2025. Small vehicles should aim for pure EV, given they won't need as large of a battery, and the hybrid would increase cost and complexity for small gains, while large vehicles should all strive for hybrid drives.
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Old 10-26-2020, 06:10 PM   #390
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I think it is a bit of a stretch actually.

Right now Tesla controls 80% of the EV market, no? If they keep doing well, they should sell 500,000 cars in 2020.

Total cars sold in 2019 were 77 million. Sales seem to be falling 2-3% per year, so lets take 75 million vehicles sold worldwide. EVs seem to be around the 2 million mark.

2 million / 75 million = 2%.

Right now Tesla, who seems to be the most successful at building EVs and getting them to market, is investing around $12 billion over the next 2 years on capital expenditures.

They haven't proven they can hit 500k cars per year yet, but lofty expectations put them at 750k cars in 2021/2022. So, if they want to go from 500k cars in 2020, to 750k cars in 2022, they need to spend $12 billion dollars.

Or $48k per car.

Economies of scale and all that, because it is hard to measure, lets round that number down to $30k per car.

In order to get to 25% of market share, or roughly 20 million cars per year, companies would need to spend almost $600 billion dollars in 10 years.

Hybrid technology is probably a bit more developed, so I guess there is a chance there.

But still, I just don't see that kind of investment leading to that kind of market share.

Could be wrong though. Just seems exponentially hard to go climb even 2% higher in production.
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Old 10-26-2020, 07:22 PM   #391
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I don' t think other manufacturers need to spend as much as Tesla, particularly regarding hybrids, as they already have factories. Tesla needs to build those. Yes, there are retooling costs, but that's the same every time a new vehicle comes out. With all the big automakers moving heavily into the space, I don't see it as a stretch in 2030.

The investments will also be spread across a lot larger group of companies, as the other automakers will be buying components from them. And it will be more of a transfer of expenditures, rather than new ones. Basically I think the 600 billion number is flawed the way you have calculated it.
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Last edited by Fuzz; 10-26-2020 at 07:27 PM.
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Old 10-27-2020, 09:35 AM   #392
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Sales of new energy vehicles (NEV) in China, the world's biggest auto market, will jump to 20 percent of overall new car sales by 2025 from just 5 percent now, and to 50 percent by 2035, the China Society of Automotive Engineers (China-SAE) said. The association also predicts 95 percent of NEV sales in 2035 will be full--electric vehicles, while hybrid vehicles will make up the rest, China-SAE president Li Jun, told its annual conference in Shanghai on Tuesday.
https://europe.autonews.com/automake...s-2025-50-2035


NEV are PHEV, Fuel Cell and full electric. So if China thinks they will be at 20% by 2025, The global target of ~25% by 2030 seems entirely within reach, given China's size.
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Old 10-27-2020, 09:48 AM   #393
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It really depends on how fast the main companies can ramp up production the Ford and Toyota PHEV SUVs seem like the obvious solution for many people’s perceived wants. (Generic family of 4 with mild outdoor activities)

With prices being only about 5k higher they have sub 5 year payouts.
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Old 10-27-2020, 10:06 AM   #394
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There is also the issue of price. I don't see 25% market adoption rates unless the price comes down significantly.

It is entirely possible to buy a $25k ICE car that is pretty nice. In order to get EV adoption, you need a similar or lessor price point. Musk keeps saying there will be a $25k car, but I don't see it in 10 years. Not available for the masses.

The production rates are impressive, and the percentage increases are nice, but in comparison to actual vehicle production, the numbers are still small.

Would be great though. Mass adoption of EVs would mean battery technology has improved significantly and that has potential for impacting a lot of industries.
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Old 10-27-2020, 10:30 AM   #395
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China doesn't have to worry about as many pesky safety regulations, so they can sell lots of really compact cheapish EV's.
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Old 10-31-2020, 11:42 PM   #396
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I was sad to have to return my Bolt after it’s 6 month lease.

Loved that car.

6 months
~8500 kms
Charged almost entirely from my level 1 charger at home.
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