Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community
Old 05-23-2020, 10:45 PM   #241
Boreal
Powerplay Quarterback
 
Boreal's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by PeteMoss View Post
Very big difference here is that governments are popular (at least non-Federal US governments are popular) for their responses to this.

And people are very supportive of the social safety nets the governments have provided in this.

Also not sure the 08-09 financial crisis had a ton to do with the populist emergence 10 years later.
No youíre right. It the austerity response to the financial crisis that did that.

Boreal is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-23-2020, 10:59 PM   #242
Boreal
Powerplay Quarterback
 
Boreal's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Slava View Post
I think the magnitude of the longer term changes are being over-estimated. Travel isnít stopping, particularly for business. People arenít doing Zoom meetings or whatever for the longer term. Itís a short-term solution so that things keep rolling, but longer term people want to meet with other people. On the business front, those things rebound. .
Correct. Everything wonít be as bad as people assume because all the working from home & zoom meetings are massively predicated on existing relationships between clients & consultants or employees. It will enable more flexibility in the workplace, especially in situations where people waste hours a week commuting. But overall virtual work is utilizing the remains of physical proximity so the diminished returns will reveal themselves in time. Virtual work will be used as an enhanced tool once relational trust is established in the workplace to ensure the minimum isnít being completed with video games filling the void.

Personal travel is harder to predict because there is a limit to what people can afford and cheap travel requires lots of passengers to achieve economies of scale.

In time, probably, but itís going to be different for a while.
Boreal is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-24-2020, 08:53 AM   #243
Slava
Franchise Player
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Calgary, Alberta
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by nobles_point View Post
Correct. Everything wonít be as bad as people assume because all the working from home & zoom meetings are massively predicated on existing relationships between clients & consultants or employees. It will enable more flexibility in the workplace, especially in situations where people waste hours a week commuting. But overall virtual work is utilizing the remains of physical proximity so the diminished returns will reveal themselves in time. Virtual work will be used as an enhanced tool once relational trust is established in the workplace to ensure the minimum isnít being completed with video games filling the void.

Personal travel is harder to predict because there is a limit to what people can afford and cheap travel requires lots of passengers to achieve economies of scale.

In time, probably, but itís going to be different for a while.
I see your point and I donít mean that the day things open, everyone is out traveling personally again. But people will recover from this and theyíll want to travel and see the world again. For many, being forced to stay home and cancel plans they had will only serve to increase travel demand. I know itís purely anecdotal, but people Iíve talked to are generally looking forward to travel again.

And whatís not anecdotal, is the travel statistics in the US are starting to pickup again. Airlines are facing some criticism because the planes are full...so obviously enough people are traveling to fill these planes. I assume most of that is necessary travel at this point, however demand is demand.
Slava is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-24-2020, 11:11 AM   #244
Boreal
Powerplay Quarterback
 
Boreal's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Slava View Post
I see your point and I donít mean that the day things open, everyone is out traveling personally again. But people will recover from this and theyíll want to travel and see the world again. For many, being forced to stay home and cancel plans they had will only serve to increase travel demand. I know itís purely anecdotal, but people Iíve talked to are generally looking forward to travel again.

And whatís not anecdotal, is the travel statistics in the US are starting to pickup again. Airlines are facing some criticism because the planes are full...so obviously enough people are traveling to fill these planes. I assume most of that is necessary travel at this point, however demand is demand.
Yeah I think the same. One thing that is for sure is that travel has been irrecoverably changed. Hopefully for the better.
Boreal is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-24-2020, 02:47 PM   #245
Strange Brew
Franchise Player
 
Strange Brew's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by nobles_point View Post
Yeah I think the same. One thing that is for sure is that travel has been irrecoverably changed. Hopefully for the better.
Weíll see about that in a couple of years. People want to travel and experience the world so Iím just not sure the travel experience is going to look that different.
Strange Brew is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-24-2020, 03:05 PM   #246
MoneyGuy
Franchise Player
 
MoneyGuy's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Slava View Post
I think the magnitude of the longer term changes are being over-estimated. Travel isnít stopping, particularly for business. People arenít doing Zoom meetings or whatever for the longer term. Itís a short-term solution so that things keep rolling, but longer term people want to meet with other people. On the business front, those things rebound.

And personal travel is even easier to see that rebound. People are going to travel and if anything, this will lead to pent up demand. People wanted a getaway, had to bail on that, and as soon as itís safe and allowable, theyíll be back on the plane or lined up at the dock to get on the cruise ship.
While I agree with all of that what scares the crap out of me are the long-term health impacts in those who get infected, the psychological impacts (depression, suicide, domestic violence), and the financial impacts from which I think will take decades to emerge (businesses that will shutter permanently and rising taxes to pay for all of this).
MoneyGuy is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to MoneyGuy For This Useful Post:
Old 05-24-2020, 08:57 PM   #247
fleury
Franchise Player
 
fleury's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Toronto, Ontario
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by MoneyGuy View Post
While I agree with all of that what scares the crap out of me are the long-term health impacts in those who get infected, the psychological impacts (depression, suicide, domestic violence), and the financial impacts from which I think will take decades to emerge (businesses that will shutter permanently and rising taxes to pay for all of this).

Here's a question, not from any political angle or anything. Here in Toronto, there are a ton of smaller businesses (bars, restaurants) notably shutting down with what they say is a permanent close. The question is, are they shutting the doors now because it's useless to pay bills like rent over the next two years when there's no revenue, then when things normalize in two years (hopefully), they then open back up, maybe in a different location if that old one was filled?


I ask this because when I hear of some businesses shutting the doors this early, it honestly makes little sense as they surely have some savings to dip into. The only explanation I have is that they see this as a no win situation until a vaccine is available, so until then shutter the doors. So effectively bankruptcy will spare some more expenses not having to be paid out (such as rent)? Am I off on my thinking?
fleury is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-24-2020, 11:13 PM   #248
Geraldsh
Crash and Bang Winger
 
Join Date: Jun 2019
Exp:
Default

You may be surprised at how many small businesses have no savings. They put everything in to get started, believing they had the magic ingredient that would have the world beating a path to their door. Optimism can be a killer.
Geraldsh is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to Geraldsh For This Useful Post:
Old 05-24-2020, 11:19 PM   #249
Street Pharmacist
Franchise Player
 
Street Pharmacist's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Kamloops
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Geraldsh View Post
You may be surprised at how many small businesses have no savings. They put everything in to get started, believing they had the magic ingredient that would have the world beating a path to their door. Optimism can be a killer.
And cash flow doesn't always follow a smooth line. Lots of businesses have busy and slow times, purchasing doesn't match when sales happen, upgrades/investments don't match timing of return on investment, etc. For example, one small restaurant near me just bought some new equipment and a whole bunch of food to start selling new items and with 50% capacity cap is not going to be able to make it work now.
Street Pharmacist is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to Street Pharmacist For This Useful Post:
Old 05-25-2020, 12:04 AM   #250
Lubicon
First Line Centre
 
Join Date: Jun 2015
Exp:
Default

I think (and this might apply especially to places like Calgary and Edmonton where costs are high to begin with) that some business might just pull the pin now to get out of unreasonable leases and high costs. Then, if costs are reset and come down they can restart with a cost base that is a little more reasonable. Even with the past few years being tough in Alberta it seems like business costs due to rent etc. were too high. Maybe this will force a reset and allow business to get back on track with a lower cost structure.
Lubicon is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to Lubicon For This Useful Post:
Old 05-25-2020, 11:37 AM   #251
Slava
Franchise Player
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Calgary, Alberta
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by MoneyGuy View Post
While I agree with all of that what scares the crap out of me are the long-term health impacts in those who get infected, the psychological impacts (depression, suicide, domestic violence), and the financial impacts from which I think will take decades to emerge (businesses that will shutter permanently and rising taxes to pay for all of this).
I'm not sure which of this that scares you comes from the virus, and which is coming as a result of the lock-down from the virus? To me the depression. suicides, domestic violence and financial impacts are outweighing what we are currently experiencing as a direct result from people who are sick. At one point we were afraid that the virus would run rampant and had to take appropriate measures to make sure that didn't happen, and unfortunately we ended up in a sort of "pick your poison" situation.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Geraldsh View Post
You may be surprised at how many small businesses have no savings. They put everything in to get started, believing they had the magic ingredient that would have the world beating a path to their door. Optimism can be a killer.
How anyone could expect a small business to have enough in the bank to have zero income for a few months (or a number of months) is just ridiculous. Of course they're under-prepared for that. It's not reasonable to expect?
Slava is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to Slava For This Useful Post:
Reply

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -6. The time now is 07:25 AM.

Calgary Flames
2019-20




Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright Calgarypuck 2016