Alberta Politics & Government Thread 3.0

[Izzle]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

https://twitter.com/user/status/1658759766834053120


Why not our own military, too? She also seems committed to endless sprawl, so that's another poor policy she supports.


Has she come up with even one good actionable idea in all her ramblings?

But it's the Bank of Canada that sets short term rates. It's to combat inflation. Unfortunately, that's a blunt tool to curb inflation. I don't get what she's going for. Does she want Alberta mortgage and housing to set rates that are affordable for Albertans??

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Izzle

But it's the Bank of Canada that sets short term rates. It's to combat inflation. Unfortunately, that's a blunt tool to curb inflation. I don't get what she's going for. Does she want Alberta mortgage and housing to set rates that are affordable for Albertans??

I'll see if I can break it down for you, as it is a little more complicated than that. Ahem. She's a [MOD EDIT: please don’t circumvent swear filters] moron.

[Torture]

Nevermind that she's fundamentally wrong about CMHC and how interest rates are set, let's have the Alberta Government, who's revenue is tied to the prospects of the Oil and Gas industry, back mortgages in Alberta, that are also influenced by the oil and gas industry. Anybody remember what happened to housing prices in Calgary in 2015?

Not a risky house of cards at all.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Izzle

But it's the Bank of Canada that sets short term rates. It's to combat inflation. Unfortunately, that's a blunt tool to curb inflation. I don't get what she's going for. Does she want Alberta mortgage and housing to set rates that are affordable for Albertans??

The only way we can have lower mortgage rates in AB than everywhere else is with government money. A guarantee from the Alberta govt is not as good as the existing guarantee most mortgages have from the Canadian government (via CMHC) so adds 0 value and wouldn't lower interest rates for Albertans. I guess they could build an Alberta version, get licensed, and charge lower fees than cmhc. That would help Alberta buyers a bit but not lower interest rates.

There are 2 ways to lower interest rates, and as someone who believes the correct interest rate for the AB economy is often different then for Canada as whole I would support neither of them:
1) the AB government lends money for mortgages at a lower-than-market rate, either directly or by buying mortgages as low rates from banks
2) the AB government directly subsidizes mortgage interest, either with payments to borrowers or lenders.

Those are the only 2 choices, they're equivalent, and they both suck.

[nik-]

It's a lot easier to understand why she's saying things when you remind yourself that she has no ####ing clue what she's talking about.

[photon]

I didn't realize the Chestermere-Strathmore UCP candidate won 68% vs the NDP candidate's 15% last election.. I mean I knew the result but didn't really pay attention to the margin. Yay for a throwaway vote.

[indes]

Originally Posted by Torture

Nevermind that she's fundamentally wrong about CMHC and how interest rates are set, let's have the Alberta Government, who's revenue is tied to the prospects of the Oil and Gas industry, back mortgages in Alberta, that are also influenced by the oil and gas industry. Anybody remember what happened to housing prices in Calgary in 2015?

Not a risky house of cards at all.

Just wait until we have the APP! Then we can invest the pension plan into these mortgages, along with Oil and Gas companies! We'll make so much ####ing money the newly formed Alberta military police/health services won't even be able to contain the excitement!

[Slava]

She reminds me more and more of Social Credit. Just hare-brained, wacky ideas that will never work and are economically insane. Couple that with the appalling social comments and policies and I just can't believe the NDP isn't winning this in a walk.

[Izzle]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

The only way we can have lower mortgage rates in AB than everywhere else is with government money. A guarantee from the Alberta govt is not as good as the existing guarantee most mortgages have from the Canadian government (via CMHC) so adds 0 value and wouldn't lower interest rates for Albertans. I guess they could build an Alberta version, get licensed, and charge lower fees than cmhc. That would help Alberta buyers a bit but not lower interest rates.



There are 2 ways to lower interest rates, and as someone who believes the correct interest rate for the AB economy is often different then for Canada as whole I would support neither of them:

1) the AB government lends money for mortgages at a lower-than-market rate, either directly or by buying mortgages as low rates from banks

2) the AB government directly subsidizes mortgage interest, either with payments to borrowers or lenders.



Those are the only 2 choices, they're equivalent, and they both suck.

In both cases, wouldn't the Albertan government need to raise taxes? Or they would risk running deficits. Besides, it's not like they can just go and print money to account for the shortfall.

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Does it though? Should voters care all that much about corporate taxes going up to...still the lowest in Canada? If an 8% rate is so brilliant, why haven't other provinces followed?

I hate this sentiment that the only places we have to compete with for business investment and capital are other Canadian provinces. Canada is not very competitive in a North American sense from a business perspective. We should be trying to be competitive with some of the most competitive US jurisdictions as well since so much of our economy is integrated with the US. It's not like saying 'still the lowest in Canada' should be a 'drop the mic, nothing further to discuss here' talking point.

The reason why this is probably a bigger issue this election compared to the last time the NDP were elected was that in 2015 the oil industry was collapsing with lower prices and companies were incurring loses and therefore not actually cash paying on that 12% rate at that time. This time around post Russia/Ukraine war most Alberta companies are in profit scenarios and will paying a lot in cash taxes. When that 37.5% increase in the rate hits cash taxes, the response from companies to relocate or create corporate structures away from Alberta / Canada will be more swift. That's ultimately the concern Trevor Tombe has with the NDP budget above. The NDP in their budget are just mechanically adjusting the rate and assuming that companies take the increase sitting down and pay more into Alberta coffers and don't change how they structure or run things that could impact local corporate head office jobs and ultimately avoid paying higher tax rates.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Cowboy89

I hate this sentiment that the only places we have to compete with for business investment and capital are other Canadian provinces. Canada is not very competitive in a North American sense from a business perspective. We should be trying to be competitive with some of the most competitive US jurisdictions as well since so much of our economy is integrated with the US. It's not like saying 'still the lowest in Canada' should be a 'drop the mic, nothing further to discuss here' talking point.

The reason why this is probably a bigger issue this election compared to the last time the NDP were elected was that in 2015 the oil industry was collapsing with lower prices and companies were incurring loses and therefore not actually cash paying on that 12% rate at that time. This time around post Russia/Ukraine war most Alberta companies are in profit scenarios and will paying a lot in cash taxes. When that 37.5% increase in the rate hits cash taxes the response to relocate or create corporate structures away from Alberta / Canada will be more swift. That's ultimately the concern Trevor Tombe has with the NDP budget above. They are just mechanically adjusting the rate and assuming that companies take the increase sitting down and pay more into Alberta coffers and don't change how they structure or run things that could impact local corporate head office jobs and ultimately avoid paying higher tax rates.

Why then is 8% the right number, and not 6%, or 10%?

[Tron_fdc]

Originally Posted by Torture

Nevermind that she's fundamentally wrong about CMHC and how interest rates are set, let's have the Alberta Government, who's revenue is tied to the prospects of the Oil and Gas industry, back mortgages in Alberta, that are also influenced by the oil and gas industry. Anybody remember what happened to housing prices in Calgary in 2015?

Not a risky house of cards at all.

Well, what she COULD do is create low threshold backstop mortgages just like the USA!!!! You see, if anyone can get a loan at a low interest rate with little to no credit history (or poor credit) so we all get new homes and speculators get 5. Then these mortgages can then be sold off to investors!! If rates go up or the market drops, everyone can just walk away from their homes because it isn't the banks that hold the liabilities, it's the investment firms. Win/win!!

I mean, I think there's a movie about this being done in the USA, but I can't quite remember. Who cares though, really.

Make it happen Danielle.

PS can we also get an Alberta Space Force going please? I want to go to Mars.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by Faust

The Breakdown @TheBreakdownAB

Last night, Livingston Macleod went & had themselves a candidates forum.

You would think in that constituency, UCP Candidate Chelsae Petrovic would have an answer on coal mining in the Eastern Slopes ready...

It's hard to tell but she seems to support coal?

#abpoli #cdnpoli

https://twitter.com/thebreakdownab/s...936288768?s=21

JFC this woman is still going to get elected, isn't she? #### me all conservative voters lose their right to complain about incompetent public servants for the rest of time.

Originally Posted by Fuzz

https://twitter.com/user/status/1658759766834053120


Why not our own military, too? She also seems committed to endless sprawl, so that's another poor policy she supports.


Has she come up with even one good actionable idea in all her ramblings?

JFC this woman is still going to get elected, isn't she? #### me all conservative voters lose their right to complain about incompetent public servants for the rest of time.

Originally Posted by Fuzz

https://twitter.com/user/status/1658671623267028992


What a wonderful person to be making decisions for Albertans.



Please, stop these bigots from making us America.

JFC this woman is still going to get elected, isn't she? #### me all conservative voters lose their right to complain about incompetent public servants for the rest of time.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by photon

I didn't realize the Chestermere-Strathmore UCP candidate won 68% vs the NDP candidate's 15% last election.. I mean I knew the result but didn't really pay attention to the margin. Yay for a throwaway vote.

Yeah I was waiting to see something from the candidate and a sign just popped a few places while the UCP candidate has been going door to door from a while back.

This guy is a ghost had to google to find some information. Just a useless candidate like if you are going to run at least put yourself out there and try its embarrassing.

Just going to be a blind vote for him and probably wasted but what can you do.

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Why then is 8% the right number, and not 6%, or 10%?

Well the 8% rate combined with the federal rate is reasonably competitive across most jurisdictions, which was the point of cutting it to that rate in the first place. Increasing it becomes less competitive and decreasing it becomes more competitive. Because some businesses can choose where to locate corporately and how they are structured, the relationship between increasing the rate and decreasing the rate isn't linear. Decreasing the rate doesn't decrease the tax revenue as much as the multiplier of the rate times corporate profit in the province because all things being equal, more businesses will choose to be incorporated here and the opposite is true on the other end, increasing it isn't going to bring in as much revenue as the multiplier of the rate increase and current corporate profits.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Wastedyouth

Name calling. Classic Pepsifree move!

Sorry to interrupt your finger waving of NDP voters. Your opinion is valued, everyone thinks so and is waiting for more. Please continue.

[Harry Lime]

The breakdown so far on what each party has planned for Healthcare after being elected. I can't can't help but notice the intense detail from the ndp and the lack of detail from the ucp.

https://www-cbc-ca.cdn.ampproject.or...ises-1.6841563

[Muta]

Bets on when TBA/subsidiary UCP organization/Lead Muppet Danielle Smith start using Make Alberta Great Again as their slogan if they win?

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

The only way we can have lower mortgage rates in AB than everywhere else is with government money. A guarantee from the Alberta govt is not as good as the existing guarantee most mortgages have from the Canadian government (via CMHC) so adds 0 value and wouldn't lower interest rates for Albertans. I guess they could build an Alberta version, get licensed, and charge lower fees than cmhc. That would help Alberta buyers a bit but not lower interest rates.

There are 2 ways to lower interest rates, and as someone who believes the correct interest rate for the AB economy is often different then for Canada as whole I would support neither of them:
1) the AB government lends money for mortgages at a lower-than-market rate, either directly or by buying mortgages as low rates from banks
2) the AB government directly subsidizes mortgage interest, either with payments to borrowers or lenders.

Those are the only 2 choices, they're equivalent, and they both suck.

This just sounds like communism with more steps.

Originally Posted by Cowboy89

I hate this sentiment that the only places we have to compete with for business investment and capital are other Canadian provinces. Canada is not very competitive in a North American sense from a business perspective. We should be trying to be competitive with some of the most competitive US jurisdictions as well since so much of our economy is integrated with the US. It's not like saying 'still the lowest in Canada' should be a 'drop the mic, nothing further to discuss here' talking point.

The reason why this is probably a bigger issue this election compared to the last time the NDP were elected was that in 2015 the oil industry was collapsing with lower prices and companies were incurring loses and therefore not actually cash paying on that 12% rate at that time. This time around post Russia/Ukraine war most Alberta companies are in profit scenarios and will paying a lot in cash taxes. When that 37.5% increase in the rate hits cash taxes, the response from companies to relocate or create corporate structures away from Alberta / Canada will be more swift. That's ultimately the concern Trevor Tombe has with the NDP budget above. The NDP in their budget are just mechanically adjusting the rate and assuming that companies take the increase sitting down and pay more into Alberta coffers and don't change how they structure or run things that could impact local corporate head office jobs and ultimately avoid paying higher tax rates.

Race to the bottom always works out so well.

Shirley all of the 0% corporate tax states absolutely dominate the US? GDP per capita rank of those states:

Washington 5th
Wyoming 13th
Texas 15th
South Dakota 20th
Ohio 26th
Nevada 31st

Compared to the 6 states with the highest corporate tax rate (9.4-12%):

Iowa 22nd
New Jersey 14th
Pennsylvania 24th
Minnesota 16th
Illinois 12th
Alaska 8th


Obviously this is a terribly cursory analysis, but it seems evident there is no 'correct' answer here.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

New poll from Abacus out this morning shows the NDP still leading but within the MOE:

https://abacusdata.ca/alberta-politics-it-is-tied/

This one has a smaller sample size (n=498) so the regional breakdowns should not be relied on too much. They show the UCP way ahead outside of the two cities, the NDP way ahead in Edmonton and “statistically tied” in Calgary (UCP very slightly ahead but well within the MOE for that sample). Looks like that sample is n=150 or so, so interpret that how you like.

Colletto points out this is also within the MOE of the results from Abacus’ last survey.