The future climate of Alberta

[PepsiFree]

Reading through the various threads on natural disasters and climate change has me thinking of our own future. What do others here think Alberta's climate future looks like? How will the natural disasters in other places impact our own quality of life?

This summer has been hotter longer, with many more smoke filled days than I can remember. While it's hard to say this is the new normal by any stretch, I can see this becoming a lot more common. In combination with big events like the flood and the Fort Mac wildfire, I have to wonder what's in our future?

What are your thoughts? What does the climate of Alberta look like in 30 or 40 years?

[Muta]

Palm trees soon, crossing fingers

[Izzle]

Can't wait for dat ocean front property.

[getbak]

All the tropical islands a couple hundred km to the west will be nice.

[Ozy_Flame]

Dave Spence said on Wednesday that this was just the 25th hottest summer in Calgary on record. To be honest, it's not really that different from other hot summers we've had, just more smoky in general.

That said, climate change is a very real occurence in our province. Take, for example, that the soil zone classifications in the Edmonton area have changed recently, allowing growth of certain types of vegetation that couldn't grow before (I remember seeing a news piece on this earlier in the year). I'll try and find it.

Am hoping that the rising sea levels will create a more humid climate in Calgary, and therefore the soil may become more moist and fertile, but I'm not holding my breath. We are in a semi-arid desert zone and it probably won't change for a long time.

[Fuzz]

I think it's a bit silly to look at how hot and dry this summer is, and wonder if this is some new normal while ignoring last summer...

[CaptainCrunch]

Shattered municipalities, permanent snow fall, craters hundreds of feet wide and hundreds of feet deep. Survivors with festering sores on their face and milky white eyes blinded from staring at the flash.

thanks a lot Trump.

[MoneyGuy]

Zombies....I see zombies in our future. It may have nothing to do with climate but zombies.

[troutman]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

Dave Spence said on Wednesday that this was just the 25th hottest summer in Calgary on record. To be honest, it's not really that different from other hot summers we've had, just more smoky in general.

Could be - how was that measured?

This story says Calgary had 10 days over 30 - normally 4.5 days:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgar...bers-1.4270223

http://calgaryherald.com/news/local-...mmer-on-record

“So people in Calgary can say now that nobody in the city, no matter if they’re 100 years old or not, has ever lived through a warmer May, June and July.”

[Flash Walken]

*sarcastic comment that belies my growing uncertainty in the future of Alberta's climate*

[Tinordi]

This is a meaty report but it's pretty much the gold standard of what climate change mean's for Canada's environment:

http://www.nrcan.gc.ca/sites/www.nrc...erview_Eng.pdf

The bottom line is that we don't know what's going to happen. We do know that it's most likely not going to be good.

Here's a snip:

Most watersheds in Canada are influenced by snow
accumulation and melt patterns. Maximum snow water
equivalent (SWE) is projected to decline in coastal British
Columbia, the Atlantic Provinces and the Great LakesSt.
Lawrence region, while increases are projected for the
Arctic coast of Nunavut (Brown and Mote, 2009).
For watersheds that contain glaciers, glacier retreat has
already been observed in British Columbia and Alberta
(Stahl et al., 2008; Marshall et al., 2011; Jost et al., 2012), and
this is projected to continue as the climate warms. As the ice
melts, this is expected to influence runoff, particularly during
summer. Marshall et al. (2011) assessed glacier runoff for
Chapter 2: An Overview of Canada’s Changing Climate 47
2000-2007 and future scenarios to 2100 (using SRES scenarios
B1 and A1B) for Rocky Mountain glaciers contributing to the
Bow, Red Deer, North Saskatchewan, Athabasca and Peace
Rivers. Projected changes in glacier volume range from -80%
(Athabasca) to -100% (Red Deer). Projected glacier runoff
changes between 2000 and 2050 for the A1B scenario are
-80% for North Saskatchewan River, -100% for Bow and Red
Deer Rivers, -75% for Peace River, and -60% for Athabasca
River. As glacier runoff contributed around 7% to summer
runoff in the Bow and North Saskatchewan Rivers in 2000-
2007, projected reductions need to be accounted for in
projections of streamflow during low flow periods in summer
and fall. Studies are also available for drainage basins with
glaciers in British Columbia (Bürger et al., 2011; Stahl et al.,
2008; Jost et al., 2012).

[Frequitude]

We might get thirsty, but the weather sure will be great.

Might have to buy some prime lakefront property on Great Bear Lake.

[GGG]

We don't use a large % of our current water.

If you compare to the Colorado river which 90% of the water is used before it hits the Mexican boarder we don't have any issues even if we only have Snow melt without glaciers.

Forest fires will also decrease once we burn though the old forests in Alberta. Years of firefighting as opposed to letting things burned have help to create the issues we are now facing. Young post fire forests will be much more resistant to burning than current forests. This could take a while though.

Our biggest risks will be drought affecting agriculture otherwise we make it through climate change in fantastic shape.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

I think it's a bit silly to look at how hot and dry this summer is, and wonder if this is some new normal while ignoring last summer...

Which I already said in my post. It's ridiculous to say things are trending in a certain way based solely off of one summer, but nobody is doing that.

Unless you are a climate change denier, I'm sure we can agree that things are going to look differently in 30-40 years. Personally, I can see things trending closer towards what we've experienced this summer. I could see a lot of issues created by increasingly dry conditions.

[Weitz]

I do believe in climate change but I also think if I still live in this dumb city in 50 years nothing will have changed. Might be a good summer might by bad. But it won't be different.

[Tinordi]

Originally Posted by GGG

We don't use a large % of our current water.

If you compare to the Colorado river which 90% of the water is used before it hits the Mexican boarder we don't have any issues even if we only have Snow melt without glaciers.

Forest fires will also decrease once we burn though the old forests in Alberta. Years of firefighting as opposed to letting things burned have help to create the issues we are now facing. Young post fire forests will be much more resistant to burning than current forests. This could take a while though.

Our biggest risks will be drought affecting agriculture otherwise we make it through climate change in fantastic shape.

Your point assumes that precipitation stays the same. I don't know how confident I'd be assuming that.

And you make the risk of drought sound like it's no big deal. Depending on the severity of the drought along with a 10% reduction in glacial flow I think it's reckless to assume that everything will just be okay.

Agriculture is a pretty important sector all things being equal.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

Which I already said in my post. It's ridiculous to say things are trending in a certain way based solely off of one summer, but nobody is doing that.

Unless you are a climate change denier, I'm sure we can agree that things are going to look differently in 30-40 years. Personally, I can see things trending closer towards what we've experienced this summer. I could see a lot of issues created by increasingly dry conditions.

I'm not sure the mechanism for Calgary to get drier. Our weather largly originates from the coast, and if in general it gets warmer I would expect it to be wetter. I actually think last summer will be more common than this summer. But we tend to get stuck in one weather system for a season around here, I'm not sure that will change.

Temperature, I think will be similar, with probably warmer evenings due to a growing urban heat island, winter lows may not be quite as cold. I really don't think this summer is indicative of a typical summer in the future. I n general, I think if you woke up 50 years in the future and spent a couple years in Calgary, you'd be hard pressed to notice a change. Our weather is just so variable.

[Northendzone]

Clelbeities will be forced into riding on commercial airlines

[calumniate]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

I'm not sure the mechanism for Calgary to get drier. Our weather largly originates from the coast, and if in general it gets warmer I would expect it to be wetter. I actually think last summer will be more common than this summer. But we tend to get stuck in one weather system for a season around here, I'm not sure that will change.

Temperature, I think will be similar, with probably warmer evenings due to a growing urban heat island, winter lows may not be quite as cold. I really don't think this summer is indicative of a typical summer in the future. I n general, I think if you woke up 50 years in the future and spent a couple years in Calgary, you'd be hard pressed to notice a change. Our weather is just so variable.

That's a good description of the current state of affairs, but I'm a bit more hesitant. Our weather is dependent on what's happening in the Pacific northwest that's true, but also the Arctic which is likely to see change before we do. But if these two things converge we'll eventually get caught in the pincer claw. That said there are likely all sorts of places that will be affected before Calgary.

[Fuzz]

Agreed, and l think it is far to difficult to make any reasonable predictions given the influences on Calgary's weather. 5 day forecasts are tricky enough!