Official (Alberta) Oil Discussion Thread

[CaptainCrunch]

Well at least Brad Wall and the Mayor of St John pretty much told Coderre to go f himself.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ener...wrap-1.4338582

"This was an opportunity for our country to come together and we failed. How would Mayor [Coderre ] feel if we blocked Bombardier or dumping in river?" wrote Don Darling.

Wall more or less took aim at the Prime Minister and the Federal Government

Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall blamed the project's failure on the National Energy Board's August decision to ask for the impact of upstream and downstream emissions from potential increased consumption of oil.
"Today is not a good day for Canada. It is not a good day for the federation. It is a very bad day for the West," he wrote on Facebook.
"Something needs to change. For the West to continue on like this in our federal system is the equivalent of having Stockholm syndrome."

too bad our Premiere basically meekly waved the white flag of surrender, even though its clear that her bending knee for social license and going hat in hand to beg Quebec and Ontario to play ball has failed.

Now with the probable long term delay for the pipeline to the West, I would expect that there is going to be a lot of anger from Alberta and Saskatchewan voters against the Liberal Government. But it doesn't matter, our vote is realistically only a protest vote.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by cal_guy

Energy East doesn't make any sense with Keystone XL looking more likely than not to go ahead. The last thing we need is a bitumen discount due to pipeline overcapacity.

I think that we should try to sign an exclusive deal to send 100% of our Oil and bitumen to the States. Turn off the taps to BC and Quebec and Ontario.

And again, Trump will want a heavily American favored deal to give us access ot Keystone.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Well at least Brad Wall and the Mayor of St John pretty much told Coderre to go f himself.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ener...wrap-1.4338582




Wall more or less took aim at the Prime Minister and the Federal Government



too bad our Premiere basically meekly waved the white flag of surrender, even though its clear that her bending knee for social license and going hat in hand to beg Quebec and Ontario to play ball has failed.

Now with the probable long term delay for the pipeline to the West, I would expect that there is going to be a lot of anger from Alberta and Saskatchewan voters against the Liberal Government. But it doesn't matter, our vote is realistically only a protest vote.

Well following this to its end, we start to hear western alienation and separatist sentiments. And frankly, this is where I am lost. So somehow we separate and Alberta and Saskatchewan are a new country. Now what? We still can't get a pipeline through and are no further ahead?

[Fuzz]

I wish TC HAD looked at the upstream and downstream effects. And then compared them to the travesty that is Quebec and their reliance on imports from despot theocracies and the costs of lives and freedoms that is supported by that decision. Shine some light on that. And then compared the net GHG, because Alberta oil will be offsetting those imports. I would imagine a pipeline comes out pretty favourably to tankers burning bunker fuel, and Saudi Royalty cruising around in their 6 wheel Mercedes off roaders(ya, I'm jealous of that part). Oh, and add in the economic benefits and jobs created and maintained by using a Canadian product end to end as well. Plus sales, and GDP. It's kind of a no-brainer.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Slava

I really don't think the issue is who is in power. The truth is the CPC couldn't get pipelines built and now the LPC can't. It's more about how much power we give to special interest groups and municipalities ahead of our national interest.

In this case though, it's only partly the issues with regard to the NEB and their trials and tribulations. The oil price being down and reduced pipeline demand are also factors here. Those are things that politicians can't really control.

sure but changing the regulatory demands in mid stream to include downstream and upstream factors absolutely killed this dead. TCPL was probably still willing to build this thing with the promise that Oil Pricing would increase somewhat again.

And demand would increase with easier access to other markets.

Basically provinces and municipalities blocking pipelines breaks the constitution which allows for the transport of provincial goods across Canada and is a part of the Federal Government's job.

Harper should have and Trudeau should have told BC and Quebec and Montreal to shut the hell up, we've examined this on a Federal level and its happening.

Instead the process has been hijacked completely.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Slava

Well following this to its end, we start to hear western alienation and separatist sentiments. And frankly, this is where I am lost. So somehow we separate and Alberta and Saskatchewan are a new country. Now what? We still can't get a pipeline through and are no further ahead?

Maybe, but if we start kicking and screaming like Quebec does, we'll actually get a seat at the table.

Nobody believes that Alberta or Saskatchewan is going to or wants to separate. But we're rapidly heading back to the whole, alienation of these provinces and the sentiment that we don't matter to the rest of Canada that was basically encouraged by Justin's old man.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

I wish TC HAD looked at the upstream and downstream effects. And then compared them to the travesty that is Quebec and their reliance on imports from despot theocracies and the costs of lives and freedoms that is supported by that decision. Shine some light on that. And then compared the net GHG, because Alberta oil will be offsetting those imports. I would imagine a pipeline comes out pretty favourably to tankers burning bunker fuel, and Saudi Royalty cruising around in their 6 wheel Mercedes off roaders(ya, I'm jealous of that part). Oh, and add in the economic benefits and jobs created and maintained by using a Canadian product end to end as well. Plus sales, and GDP. It's kind of a no-brainer.

Sure, but again, those imports aren't dealt with in the same way. They aren't going to calculate the carbon tax for freighters or off loading facilities. They certainly aren't concerned that Oil tankers are extremely environmentally risky probably compared to rail and pipelines.

The government, and it was the conservatives as well, have given an actual competitive advantage to incoming oil over our own.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

sure but changing the regulatory demands in mid stream to include downstream and upstream factors absolutely killed this dead. TCPL was probably still willing to build this thing with the promise that Oil Pricing would increase somewhat again.

And demand would increase with easier access to other markets.

Basically provinces and municipalities blocking pipelines breaks the constitution which allows for the transport of provincial goods across Canada and is a part of the Federal Government's job.

Harper should have and Trudeau should have told BC and Quebec and Montreal to shut the hell up, we've examined this on a Federal level and its happening.

Instead the process has been hijacked completely.

Yeah well I agree with the hijacking part, but like I say, it's irrelevant who is in power. The issue isn't really political because we haven't seen any progress regardless of which party is in. Seeing the NDP MP on Power and Politics on this topic just tells me that they would be worse than the other two...so there isn't a political solution here between these three parties.

[cal_guy]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

I think that we should try to sign an exclusive deal to send 100% of our Oil and bitumen to the States. Turn off the taps to BC and Quebec and Ontario.

And again, Trump will want a heavily American favored deal to give us access ot Keystone.

People seem to think that by building more pipelines costs are reduced because of competition. They won't because pipelines tolls are federally regulated, overcapacity means that tolls increase to compensate pipeline owners. If Keystone XL gets built, the NEB based on current production forecast will likely reject Energy East because of overcapacity, which is why Transcanada is stopping the project now.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Sure, but again, those imports aren't dealt with in the same way. They aren't going to calculate the carbon tax for freighters or off loading facilities. They certainly aren't concerned that Oil tankers are extremely environmentally risky probably compared to rail and pipelines.

The government, and it was the conservatives as well, have given an actual competitive advantage to incoming oil over our own.

Ya, my point is it sounds like with the other pipelines, EE wasn't a top priority, so they should have taken a moral stand on this one, and run the numbers for Canadians to see and have a discussion on it. I'd be fascinated to see an actual analysis, and perhaps it would sway opinions, and make it tougher for politicians to pander to their base.

[Violator]

I just dont understand anymore I really dont.

[CaptainCrunch]

With the news that the US department of Commerce has added another 80% tariff to Bombardiers already 229% countervauluing tariff for dumping taking the Bombardier C series tariff to over 300%, all I can say is hows that taste Quebec.

Doesn't feel to good when someone is messing with your economy does it?

[para transit fellow]

Don't know if this has been covered. There may be an additional TransCanada business factor to decision to suspend pursuit of the energy east proposal

Energy east depended on transforming an existing - under-utilized -- gas pipeline across the prairies. In late September, TransCananda. got a ruling that they can now charge considerably less for natural gas transmission on that pipeline.

The new low rate could change the eastern Canadian demand for western Canada natural gas producers.

https://apps.neb-one.gc.ca/REGDOCS/Item/Filing/A86215

[Buck Murdock]

For anyone interested, Danielle Smith is poling about Alberta separating from Canada. Feel free to check it out here. Some interesting comments:

https://twitter.com/ABDanielleSmith

[Regorium]

Originally Posted by para transit fellow

Don't know if this has been covered. There may be an additional TransCanada business factor to decision to suspend pursuit of the energy east proposal

Energy east depended on transforming an existing - under-utilized -- gas pipeline across the prairies. In late September, TransCananda. got a ruling that they can now charge considerably less for natural gas transmission on that pipeline.

The new low rate could change the eastern Canadian demand for western Canada natural gas producers.

https://apps.neb-one.gc.ca/REGDOCS/Item/Filing/A86215

In my opinion, this was clearly plan F. Shipping gas is far worse than oil in terms of profitability (especially at half of what they were charging before), but a full pipe is more profitable than an empty pipe.

Obviously TransCanada has been trying to figure out ways to get the utilization back up. Converting to oil was one way, and dropping the price by half and ship gas was another way. If I was running TRP, I know which one I would want for the company.

Getting the rate discount approved does change the economic analysis slightly - is spending the massive amount of money, time, tarnishing the entire brand fighting with first nations and protesters worth the increased profitability 5 years down the line? Or with the rate approval, we can spend no money, keep the asset slightly profitable, and focus our money elsewhere?

[cal_guy]

Originally Posted by Regorium

In my opinion, this was clearly plan F. Shipping gas is far worse than oil in terms of profitability (especially at half of what they were charging before), but a full pipe is more profitable than an empty pipe.

Obviously TransCanada has been trying to figure out ways to get the utilization back up. Converting to oil was one way, and dropping the price by half and ship gas was another way. If I was running TRP, I know which one I would want for the company.

Getting the rate discount approved does change the economic analysis slightly - is spending the massive amount of money, time, tarnishing the entire brand fighting with first nations and protesters worth the increased profitability 5 years down the line? Or with the rate approval, we can spend no money, keep the asset slightly profitable, and focus our money elsewhere?

It wasn't that long ago that oil sand producers and buyers were suing because there was too much pipeline capacity.

https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/rep...beandmail.com&

[Izzle]

Saudi royal family upheaval causing oil to spike to $57 this morning. Well, it has been on an upward trend for the past two days.

I think this is a temporary thing as the swing producers are now shale gas in North America.

Get your double meat while it lasts.

[DownhillGoat]

Originally Posted by Izzle

Get your double meat while it lasts.

Who can afford double meat with these gas prices?

[_Q_]

Oilpatch spending to ramp up in Canada's 'hottest new play,' led by Chevron!

So double meat time?

http://ow.ly/F2LJ30grAet

Chevron could spend up to $290 million this year in the formation, rising to $380 million next year and $500 million 2019 as the company scales up to drill 46 wells in the formation, Nemeth said.

In addition to Chevron’s investment, Calgary-based Pembina Pipeline Corp. announced it would spend $290 million building out a condensate-handling facility, gas processing facility and pipelines to serve Chevron’s needs in the play.

[Lubicon]

Originally Posted by _Q_

Oilpatch spending to ramp up in Canada's 'hottest new play,' led by Chevron!

So double meat time?

http://ow.ly/F2LJ30grAet

It's looking better if you are an operator but service companies are still struggling to get by. There's a reason Chevron's cost went from $20 to $11 million per well and it's not entirely due to experience and performance improvement.