2018 NFL thread

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Nadal Fan

Whoah are we still having a debate if Mariota is a good QB? We still having it huh hahahah you guys are hilarious. Defending Superbowl champs in OT, what does he do? Converts 3 4th downs for the win! Last year playoffs in Arrowhead what does he do? Rallies the troops for a huge come from behind win, where he catches his own TD pass. I know you guys don't watch a lot of Titans games, but ask any Titans fan, he is the 2nd best QB the franchise has ever had already. He has almost no offensive line, the running game is non-existent and his WR's are inconsistent at best (except Davis I love that man). He out played Brady and crushed the Pats this year and the Cowboys on MNF. He's played in games this year he had no business in playing because of injury which hurt his stats. Mariota, Mahomes, Wentz, Geoff, Winston, Prescott only one has a playoff win in their career . Throw Mariota on the Cheifs and Mahomes on the Titans and I guarantee you Mahomes isn't throwing for 40 TDs a season.

That's great that he's had some good games, but so do most QBs. Nick Foles, Eli Manning, and Joe Flacco all have Super Bowls and played out of their minds during their respective postseason runs. Mariota's underlying numbers, advanced stats, etc., have him established as a firmly mediocre to below-average QB.

Good QBs make the team around them better and can overcome poor coaching, supporting cast, etc., to some some degree. Outside of a few a lightning in a bottle performances, Mariota hasn't shown he can do that.

[Luder]

Originally Posted by rubecube

What's wrong with Jurrell Casey? Hell, I'd take a Corey Davis jersey over a Mariota. Give Davis some solid QB play and I think he still has the chance to be a star.

Sadly, Mariota was the only choice from the Canadian Shop NFL. I like Mariota, I just wish he wasn’t made of glass and got used properly.

[transplant99]

Washington Redskins quarterback Alex Smith is dealing with an infection caused by complications from multiple surgeries on his broken leg, sources confirmed to ESPN.

Sources told ESPN's Dianna Russini that there is concern that Smith, 34, is dealing with a career-ending injury after breaking the tibia and fibula in his right leg during a Week 11 loss to the Houston Texans on Nov. 18.

"On behalf of Alex Smith, we appreciate all of the concerns and prayers over the injury he incurred on November 18th against the Houston Texans," the statement said. "Although this is a serious injury, Alex and his family remain strong. We would ask that everyone please honor the Smith family's request for privacy at this time."

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/2...iple-surgeries

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by rubecube

That's great that he's had some good games, but so do most QBs. Nick Foles, Eli Manning, and Joe Flacco all have Super Bowls and played out of their minds during their respective postseason runs. Mariota's underlying numbers, advanced stats, etc., have him established as a firmly mediocre to below-average QB.

Good QBs make the team around them better and can overcome poor coaching, supporting cast, etc., to some some degree. Outside of a few a lightning in a bottle performances, Mariota hasn't shown he can do that.

I think Winston is still the superior QB but I don't know if he will get his head on straight. I don't think Mariota is ever going to ascend into an elite QB as I see his career going in the direction of journeyman QB like Josh McCown. He's just good enough to QB a team to an 8/9 win season. That doesn't mean he's bad as we have been spoiled by Brady, Brees, Big, Ben, Rivers, etc as once they exit I don't see a group of QB's that are going to take their place as perennial top QB's. I think QB play as a whole is a lot better than it's ever been and there's a lot of good QB's but the great ones have been the same guys for the last decade.

[ResAlien]

Mariota’s success or lack thereof is directly related to coaching and scheme. I think if Chip had moved up to get him they might both still be in Philly.

[Nadal Fan]

Trust me being a Titans fan for 20 years I've seen some awful QBs come and go (Jake Locker, Zack Mettenberg, Vince Young, Matt Hasstleback, Rusty Smith (who got cut from the Stamps but started for the Titans a game)) and Mariota is not one of them. He's not as good as Mahomes but who is? Look at Geoff when he was under Fisher we all thought he was bad. Mariota took a team that had won 5 games over 2 seasons and won a playoff game in his 3rd year, and with not a lot of supporting cast. Dude has heart, it was his stiff arm on the Jaguars that got him into the playoffs and it was a block by him that helped seal the playoff win against KC. The game against Houston he had 1 incomplete pass and 2 TD's and they still got blown out, that's crazy. In the words of TO " That's my Quarterback "

[Senator Clay Davis]

If you could get Mariota signed for around $15 million a year, I'd be interested in him. But at $25 million+ a year, which is the market rate for a mid-level QB, he holds virtually no appeal. It's only a matter of time, with the advantages of paying the rookie QB scale, that a team walks away from a guy who might be a franchise guy (but is more likely a Tannehill) to go back into the pool and draft another QB. Mariota (but really moreso Winston) seem like ideal candidates, but GMs are more afraid of what ifs than anything, so they'll both get contracts their teams will regret by year 2.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Nadal Fan

Trust me being a Titans fan for 20 years I've seen some awful QBs come and go (Jake Locker, Zack Mettenberg, Vince Young, Matt Hasstleback, Rusty Smith (who got cut from the Stamps but started for the Titans a game)) and Mariota is not one of them. He's not as good as Mahomes but who is? Look at Geoff when he was under Fisher we all thought he was bad. Mariota took a team that had won 5 games over 2 seasons and won a playoff game in his 3rd year, and with not a lot of supporting cast. Dude has heart, it was his stiff arm on the Jaguars that got him into the playoffs and it was a block by him that helped seal the playoff win against KC. The game against Houston he had 1 incomplete pass and 2 TD's and they still got blown out, that's crazy. In the words of TO " That's my Quarterback "

Being the best QB out of a bad bunch doesn't mean you're good. Again, none of the things you're saying aren't things you couldn't also say about a handful of other average QBs who had various flashes in the pan during their careers. The numbers are the most objective way to look at a player, and the numbers say Mariota is below average in most passing categories.

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Being the best QB out of a bad bunch doesn't mean you're good. Again, none of the things you're saying aren't things you couldn't also say about a handful of other average QBs who had various flashes in the pan during their careers. The numbers are the most objective way to look at a player, and the numbers say Mariota is below average in most passing categories.

I like to use QBR to rank the QB's, and it has Mariota 20th (Kinda where you expect), right below Flacco (Rogers really struggling this year)



http://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr

If you could get Mariota signed for around $15 million a year, I'd be interested in him. But at $25 million+ a year, which is the market rate for a mid-level QB, he holds virtually no appeal. It's only a matter of time, with the advantages of paying the rookie QB scale, that a team walks away from a guy who might be a franchise guy (but is more likely a Tannehill) to go back into the pool and draft another QB. Mariota (but really moreso Winston) seem like ideal candidates, but GMs are more afraid of what ifs than anything, so they'll both get contracts their teams will regret by year 2.

Interesting how high Trubisky is, another player you want the Bears to move on from. TBH I don't think you full grasp the NFL pay scale


Tyrod Taylor makes 16 mil, Foles as a backup 14 million, McCown 10 million. NO starting QB will ever sign a 15 million $ deal. 25 million is the new average starting point (Dak, Stafford, Mariota, Carr)


Right now it's a weird spot where the best QB's are still old and not signing mega deals, and the potentially new/best QB's haven't resigned.


There was a dead period of a few years where only a few QB's were drafted and stayed starters : Carr, Stafford, and Wilson come to mind.



Goff, Mahomes, Wentz, Trubisky wont be signing 25 million $ deals. They will be signing 30+ million $ deals.



It is insane to suggest walking away from a Trubisky or Mariota and hoping you get extremely lucky and find the next Brady, Manning, orRogers.


These are the QB's to win a championship in the past 15 years - I marked the guys Trubisky or Mariota could become/perform as:



Foles - Yes
Brady
P. Manning
Brady
Wilson - Yes (Very similar to Trubisky)
Flacco - Yes
E.Manning -Yes
Rodgers
Brees
Roeth
E Manning -Yes
P. Manning
Roeth
Brady
Brady
Johnson - Yes



Big Ben and Brees also weren't the stat machines they are now back in the day/when they were younger.


So if you are giving up on these guys, you sure better be getting one of the top 10 guys in history (Rogers, Manning, Brady) And 2 of those guys were semi lucky picks anyone could have had, without getting rid of their starter.


We are spoiled seeing these guys all at once. It is giving a false idea that this is the norm for what you need to win a championship at the QB position.


EDIT:


And if we want the loosing QB, which shows even more how these guys could make it


Brady
Ryan
Newton
Wilson
P Manning
Kaep
Brady
Roeth
P Manning
Warner
Brady
Grossman
Hassleback
McNabb
Delhomme
Gannon

[rubecube]

I think the point is that there are basically two ways of winning a Super Bowl:

1) Have a competent, above-average QB, on a below-market deal and splurge on the talent around him to make the team strong and deep (see: Eagles and Seahawks).

2) Have an elite QB whose ability covers for the depth and talent deficiencies that come with his bloated contract.

Mariota will be neither of these things if/when he signs a $25M deal. The ceiling for the Titans with Mariota will be the Alex Smith-era Chiefs and his floor is probably the Stafford-era Lions.

[Jason14h]

Which is fair enough , but Has a lot to do with Tom Brady being in the league, and taking way less then market value to allow his team to sign better talent

These guys are top picks in the NFL we are talking about Getting rid of after four years because they haven’t won a Super Bowl yet to start over and hope for Magic beans

Really you need a QB gettig paid below market value. We’re just in a world where Brady and Brees want a last championship rather then a payday

The odds of restarting, tanking and finding a better QB are just as low as these guys winning a super bowl IMO

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

Which is fair enough , but Has a lot to do with Tom Brady been in the league

These guys are top picks in the NFL we are talking about Getting rid of after four years because they haven’t won a Super Bowl yet to start over and hope for Magic beans

The odds of restarting, tanking and finding a better QB are just as low as these guys winning a super bowl IMO

Is your argument that four years is too small of a sample size? Mariota is a bottom 10 QB by most metrics. I'd say the odds of finding a replacement-level QB for him in the top 10 picks of the draft are reasonable.

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Is your argument that four years is too small of a sample size? Mariota is a bottom 10 QB by most metrics. I'd say the odds of finding a replacement-level QB for him in the top 10 picks of the draft are reasonable.

Is the team better with a new QB in top 10 ( let’s say 10th-15 where they will finish) or using that pick on talent and going with Mariotta

It isn’t easy to find a Qb better then Mariotta. Sure there are 20 guys in the league better then that , but they span over 15 year of drafting.

Your either pick a stud at 1/2, or get extremely lucky (or great scouting one could argue)

So I’m arguing both . 4 years is too short a period considering injuries and the talent around him , and the odds of finding a better QB isn’t as high as you attribute it to being

[Luder]

Good start!

[Scornfire]

Lol. what a pass

[Nsd1]

That might be the only points that the Jaguars put up tonight.

[Luder]

Double post

[Luder]

I spoke too soon, c’mon guys

[Luder]

Henry with a 99yd TD run!

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

It is insane to suggest walking away from a Trubisky or Mariota and hoping you get extremely lucky and find the next Brady, Manning, orRogers.

It's not so much about finding the next Brady or Rodgers, it's about how costly it is to pay for average QB play once a guy gets to the franchise/UFA years, and whether it's more financial sound to go back into the draft and hope you can get the same level of QB play on the rookie scale instead. Now I'm not saying you need to get a Mahomes or Watson, but they will make less than $5 million against the cap for the next two seasons.

As rube points out, there are seemingly two ways to win now: Have an elite QB so you can shortchange your roster elsewhere, or get the QB on the rookie scale and load up your team for a short window (assuming you've otherwise managed your cap well, of course). So when a Trubisky or Mariota hit the franchise/UFA years, I think you have to seriously wonder whether you can't find equivalent play in the draft.

Now this strategy makes more sense with an offensive head coach who can scheme well and develop a QB, but QB contracts aren't going down in value relative to the cap. So I wonder when we will see a team walk away from someone after year 4/5 and try and find an equivalent player (at least) in the draft.