Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread

[Vinny01]

Listened to the Francis show with Steinberg today and it sounds like both are skeptical that Tkachuk actually would sign a long term deal with the team.

[Fire]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

If he retired the bonus is paid back

I am not sure if Flames can “waive” that requirement though

Do you have a link to the section of CBA where it says this? Not saying it isn't true, because it makes sense, but I never seen actual proof it's true.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Listened to the Francis show with Steinberg today and it sounds like both are skeptical that Tkachuk actually would sign a long term deal with the team.

And if that's the case, sure it's a tough hole to fill, but you go ahead and trade him after what may have very likely been the high point of his career.

Even with his contract status his value would be very high right now. Especially to a team that believes they can extend him long term. You should get a nice return, and also relieve a little of the cap pressure.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Listened to the Francis show with Steinberg today and it sounds like both are skeptical that Tkachuk actually would sign a long term deal with the team.

Shocking that Francis would feel that way.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

And if that's the case, sure it's a tough hole to fill, but you go ahead and trade him after what may have very likely been the high point of his career.

Even with his contract status his value would be very high right now. Especially to a team that believes they can extend him long term. You should get a nice return, and also relieve a little of the cap pressure.

The or whole argument as to why he wouldn’t sign was the fact he would take his own leverage away by signing this season. I think it makes sense for Tkachuk to sign after his career year because what if he goes back to 25 goals and 65pts next year? Career year helps secure that big bag right away as we recall last season his 43pts in 56 games had many on here saying he wasn’t going to be worth near his QO.

[mile]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Listened to the Francis show with Steinberg today and it sounds like both are skeptical that Tkachuk actually would sign a long term deal with the team.

That would be dumb. He may never replicate a 104 point year in his career again. If Brady is willing to sign long term in Ottawa, I would think Matthew would do the same here.

Friedman today:

https://twitter.com/user/status/1531377781401128967

[Mayo]

Was thinking today - you guys think Pittsburgh might take a run at Gaudreau in lieu of re-signing Malkin?

I have no idea of how realistic that is, but seems like a good fit for Johnny

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by mile

That would be dumb. He may never replicate a 104 point year in his career again. If Brady is willing to sign long term in Ottawa, I would think Matthew would do the same here.

Friedman today:

https://twitter.com/user/status/1531377781401128967

I agree but I wonder what that number is?

Brady let’s the Sens buy 3 UFA years by paying him over $8.2M for 0.63ppg in less than 200 games at the time the deal was signed.

Matthew would have the Flames buying 7 UFA years after going for 0.89ppg over 431 games. Does he want $3M per more for that production?

[Ashasx]

Flames aren't throwing minimum wage offers.

Such news.

[8sPOT]

Before this season I thought there was no way the Flames would sign both. Team was on the way down, both players seemed to be already looking ahead to the future, and it just didn't seem plausible.

But now after such a strong regular season, a playoff series win, career highs in points, and some untapped potential left I have a feeling both will in fact sign.

Treliving is pretty good at moving stuff around and fitting pieces. I bet he makes it work.

[Northendzone]

i just wonder if you sign both players to a 8 year deal, which one you will hate more after year 3?

for MT his gamble is what if he sings a 1 year deal and then logs 40 points next season, versus signing long term today. Conversely if he signs a 1 year deal and gets 120 points next year, then he is going to get huge dollars as a UFA.

My personal opinion is something at around $9m per is the right number, but i also feel on the open market they would get more.

[DJones]

Originally Posted by Northendzone

i just wonder if you sign both players to a 8 year deal, which one you will hate more after year 3?

for MT his gamble is what if he sings a 1 year deal and then logs 40 points next season, versus signing long term today. Conversely if he signs a 1 year deal and gets 120 points next year, then he is going to get huge dollars as a UFA.

My personal opinion is something at around $9m per is the right number, but i also feel on the open market they would get more.

I think Gaudreau will age nicely, the cap should increase rapidly after the escrow is all paid back so by the end of it he could likely fit nicely on the 2nd line.

Honestly no idea what Tkachuk's true value is. If he wants to sign long term for like 9M sure. If he signs his qualifying offer just trade him.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by 2macinnis2

Look, that line wasn’t very good defensively in either series. Further, the offense was primarily driven by Gaudreau, not Tkachuk. I get that Tkachuk had a great regular season… I’m talking about playoffs. That line can be a better playoff line with a replacement IMO. And whatever his metrics may be, I just personally have never found him noticeable making good defensive plays, again particularly not in the playoffs.

Tkachuk is a really good player no doubt. But as others have mentioned, you simply cannot pay him and Gaudreau their market value. Gaudreau is far more important to keep, and Tkachuk could actually net you some return.

It’s a pretty straightforward decision, and you have be able to find a silver lining once you arrive at it.

After watching Tkachuk in both playoff series, I'm kind of leaning towards the same thought process. Tkachuk really held back the top line from getting to their game throughout the playoffs.

As I've stated before, Tkachuk is too slow to keep up with the speedier teams and isn't big enough to play a power forward game in the playoffs. In the regular season, he can hide those flaws, but with how much speed and size is magnified in the playoffs, he can't hide his weaknesses.

The fear of Tkachuk eating up $10M is very real. That's the biggest factor of all I think. I don't necessarily care if the Flames get a king's ransom or not based on his UFA status in one year. But the mistake of overcommitting and overpaying an exclusive regular season performer would be a big mistake. If there was a way to keep Johnny and find a suitable Tkachuk replacement/comparable, then that should definitely be explored.

Although, if Johnny re-signing is contingent on Tkachuk coming back, then the Flames may just have to bite the bullet and find value elsewhere. At the very least, the current top line can get the team to the dance and I suppose we can just hope that they figure it out along the way at some point.

[calgaryred]

Originally Posted by Phaneuf_Phan

Seems like Brad T is set on signing Johnny. I would much rather let him walk and then they can afford to re-sign everyone else including our 2 D-men. There's simply not enough cap space to go around. Johnny will be great for the next 2 years but when the smallest/softest player in the league loses a step after age 30, the remaining 8 years on his contract are going to be an anchor.

Worst comment of the day

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

Lucic for $1 million real money traded for a 3rd pairing D or 4th line forward making more real money but having a lower cap hit is what we will see is my prediction

Other teams have players they want to “dump” and saving 1 million in real cash to dump a 2 million cap hit and real Salary player would make sense for a non cap team

Flames save cap space and the other team saves real $$. Plus Flames get a body you hope you can turn around similar to our 3rd D pairing this year and get some performance out of

Flames may even need to eat a player with 2 years of term - someone with a 2-2.5 million salary and cap hit for the next 2 years for Lucic

Monny I think we just do fancy LTIR cheating all year ��

It all comes down to whether Monahan or Lucic even want to go as they both have No Trade Clauses and Lucic's is especially restrictive.

Therein lies the question, why would he even want to go? Uproot his children, the life they've built in Calgary after 3 years, the friends he's made, the team and organization.

Why would he waive and leave all that behind just to go to some random sucky team in a random city just so the Flames can have more cap space to spend this summer?

Why would he agree to any of that?


The Monahan conversation ultimately leads to the same question. Why? The fancy LTIR cheating you're talking about helps the Flames. But how does that help Monahan's career? Dude is still in his 20's and I suspect he wants another decent pay day. So, why would he bury his season and possibly his career, straight into the ground just to help out Brad Treliving and the Flames? He'll have recovered in a couple months and should be ready for a full training camp and he's going to want to play.

So in terms of motivation, nothing you proposed does anything for the individuals themselves. They're not going to care about this team if they're not going to directly benefit from it.

[Murph]

If there’s a deal for a top 10 pick and a young cheap Dman or centre on the table, you make it. As an example, I’d rather have the 2nd overall, Ryan Graves and Ryan Strome signed to a $7M deal than have two $10M wingers.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

It all comes down to whether Monahan or Lucic even want to go as they both have No Trade Clauses and Lucic's is especially restrictive.

Therein lies the question, why would he even want to go? Uproot his children, the life they've built in Calgary after 3 years, the friends he's made, the team and organization.

Why would he waive and leave all that behind just to go to some random sucky team in a random city just so the Flames can have more cap space to spend this summer?

Why would he agree to any of that?


The Monahan conversation ultimately leads to the same question. Why? The fancy LTIR cheating you're talking about helps the Flames. But how does that help Monahan's career? Dude is still in his 20's and I suspect he wants another decent pay day. So, why would he bury his season and possibly his career, straight into the ground just to help out Brad Treliving and the Flames? He'll have recovered in a couple months and should be ready for a full training camp and he's going to want to play.

So in terms of motivation, nothing you proposed does anything for the individuals themselves. They're not going to care about this team if they're not going to directly benefit from it.

The Lucic one anyway would be because he’s a good guy (he already waived once), it’s only one season and because he could more easily be straight on bought out now. Plus this year he has a bigger list (10 teams I think).

[Enoch Root]

Players are aware of how fans feel about them. Some players wouldn't care, but some don't want to be that fan-hated boat anchor.

Players are people too, or so I have heard.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

The Lucic one anyway would be because he’s a good guy (he already waived once), it’s only one season and because he could more easily be straight on bought out now. Plus this year he has a bigger list (10 teams I think).

Calgary would save about $500,000 in cap this year in buying out Lucic.

There is a reason his contract was basically buy out proof.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

The Lucic one anyway would be because he’s a good guy (he already waived once), it’s only one season and because he could more easily be straight on bought out now. Plus this year he has a bigger list (10 teams I think).

That would be an extraordinarily selfless and honorable decision a player in the cap era could do for his team. But I don’t see it happening. The guy is a dad, his kids are old enough to have made close friends at this point, he likes the team and situation.

It would be the best way to remove a huge cap burden, but doesn’t seem realistic to me at this point. Has there been any talk about it? You’d think he’d want to ask for a list pretty soon to give Lucic ample time to make a decision.

I’m not even sure how the cap works when the signing bonus is paid out, I assume that it stays on the team that paid it out. So if that’s the case, Treliving would have even less time because that bonus is paid out in July.

Will cap floor teams even know whether or not they want a Lucic or will they want a different bad contract. Do the Flames have the requisite assets to be able to outcompete other team’s bids for their cap dumps?

There’s just so many moving parts that leads me to believe it won’t happen.