Official (Alberta) Oil Discussion Thread

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by OldDutch

This should be a wake up call to Canadians, that we enjoy our standard of living at the US discretion. That whole Obama trip up here 4 years ago to pat Justin on the head didn't seem to add up to much when Justin needed a real favor back. Day 1 cancellation basically means Biden think much about Canada's position here. This was an American politician looking after his base voter, allies be damned (Didn't we just hate that the last 4 years?)

Anyways, If we were/are smart we would have, and maybe still can build export pipelines on our land. We control that. We could use that money to pay the bills that are coming due, and transition to green on our terms. Heck we could actually help Indigenous people by partnering! We should legislate that, or sell it to them to operate!

As much as the Liberals like to politicize everything to avoid making hard decisions, this is one staring them in the face. They killed 2 pipelines they had control over to appease Quebec and BC. They hurt Indigenous owners in the process. Now are staring at maybe 1 left, and it isn't nearly enough to not leave good money the country needs on the table.

My guess is there is some embarrassment in Ottawa tonight, only for poor Justin and the Liberals who thought they would be getting a better partner in the South. The Obama bro who should have done a solid for another Obama bro? That is how it works right? No!?! but but Environment and Progressive politics!

As been preached for years now, need to put on our big boy pants and deicide if outside forces and separatists will decide our future, or we will control our own path.

If you keep borrowing money to pay for things you lose control. Sometimes we need to trade off to make sure we are not sliding to a position where the lenders are dictating what we are going to do with our country. I feel tonight that it is unfortunately clear where we are heading quickly.

I read that the various Indigenous investment groups are out nearly 800 million dollars. They'll be screaming bloody murder soon.

[DoubleK]

Originally Posted by PaperBagger'14

So what increase gets passed on to the consumer in this model, rate payer increases or additional taxes? Also how do you deal with the possibility that they don't reach a certain amount of MW of delivery?

It would be funded by the Carbon Tax similar to the NDP's REP, so little to no incremental cost to the ratepayer beyond what is currently in place. I get that the carbon tax piggy bank isn't bottomless, but this investment would be modest and has a built in revenue offset.

As for the bolded part, the variability of wind generation is a challenge. Possible solutions would be a modest amount of storage to act as a buffer, or in the worst case buying green power at night to provide the buffer.

This is an experiment to test the economics and prove the tech.

[FireGilbert]

These pipeline dramas really hammer home Alberta being a prisoner of geography and that the history of Canada is really just Ontario, Quebec, and to a lesser extent BC subcontracting colonial duties from the British. Like the small Maritime provinces, Alberta and Saskatchewan are dependent on the larger ones for trade and economic prosperity while lacking the power to change anything from the inside.

[PaperBagger'14]

Originally Posted by DoubleK

It would be funded by the Carbon Tax similar to the NDP's REP, so little to no incremental cost to the ratepayer beyond what is currently in place. I get that the carbon tax piggy bank isn't bottomless, but this investment would be modest and has a built in revenue offset.

As for the bolded part, the variability of wind generation is a challenge. Possible solutions would be a modest amount of storage to act as a buffer, or in the worst case buying green power at night to provide the buffer.

This is an experiment to test the economics and prove the tech.

I'd 100% be behind this if (and thats a big word) the carbon tax is reformed to support green projects instead of what it currently is.

If I had control over carbon tax revenues, there would be no rebates, but that money would go directly into R&D for energy storage to make green energy profitable

[Lubicon]

Originally Posted by Wormius

What is the benefit to the US for approving KXL? Even if there was no environmental concerns, why would they want this?

Several reasons.

Energy security, and by extension national security. Canada is a trusted ally and supplier of energy. No worries about supply being cut off.

Second, and as mentioned numerous times. Many of the large refineries on the Gulf coast are designed for heavy crude. Crude that used to come from Venezuela and Mexico but now that those sources are no longer available there are legitimate risks those refineries won be able to find enough feedstock.

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by Firebot

Beautiful landscape by those climate friendly lithium mines and beautiful neon green pools.

Nope. Copper mine.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/li...ine-oil-sands/

[DiracSpike]

Originally Posted by OldDutch

This should be a wake up call to Canadians, that we enjoy our standard of living at the US discretion. That whole Obama trip up here 4 years ago to pat Justin on the head didn't seem to add up to much when Justin needed a real favor back. Day 1 cancellation basically means Biden think much about Canada's position here. This was an American politician looking after his base voter, allies be damned (Didn't we just hate that the last 4 years?)

Anyways, If we were/are smart we would have, and maybe still can build export pipelines on our land. We control that. We could use that money to pay the bills that are coming due, and transition to green on our terms. Heck we could actually help Indigenous people by partnering! We should legislate that, or sell it to them to operate!

As much as the Liberals like to politicize everything to avoid making hard decisions, this is one staring them in the face. They killed 2 pipelines they had control over to appease Quebec and BC. They hurt Indigenous owners in the process. Now are staring at maybe 1 left, and it isn't nearly enough to not leave good money the country needs on the table.

My guess is there is some embarrassment in Ottawa tonight, only for poor Justin and the Liberals who thought they would be getting a better partner in the South. The Obama bro who should have done a solid for another Obama bro? That is how it works right? No!?! but but Environment and Progressive politics!

As been preached for years now, need to put on our big boy pants and deicide if outside forces and separatists will decide our future, or we will control our own path.

If you keep borrowing money to pay for things you lose control. Sometimes we need to trade off to make sure we are not sliding to a position where the lenders are dictating what we are going to do with our country. I feel tonight that it is unfortunately clear where we are heading quickly.

It’s truly amazing how much ass ####ing Canadians will accept as long as it’s being done by a democrat. Pretty embarrassing actually.

Hopefully this is all the damage Biden does to our province but it’s such a big step to take on day one that I doubt it. We still have line 3 and line 5 fights going on in the states that Biden could hurt us on if he really wanted to. These obstructionists have succeeded in blocking new pipelines and now they’re moving on towards blocking replacements and even decommissioning existing infrastructure. It’s possible we could be looking at a reduction of 1.75 million barrels a day in future and existing capacity soon, critically injuring Alberta’s economy for years. But hey, at least we got trump out amirite? His tweets made my tummy hurt.

[Rutuu]

Two things...does the hypocrisy argument ever work?

...and why do pro-O&G folks always throw the coal industry under the bus? I mean coal is cheap and everywhere. Lots of nations could have energy security and cheap energy with coal. Green politics have put a timer on coal, and back when NG was more expensive, coal was the clear cheapest conventional alternative. DoE stats these days point to LCOE of solar and wind being better than coal and NG, so it's a bit of a new world (and yes I understand the need for base load , compared to peakers).

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by octothorp

Nope. Copper mine.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/li...ine-oil-sands/

I stand corrected on a technicality, it's one of the images shown with a google search, and one of many similar due to a misuse of it.

https://www.google.com/search?q=lith...=2533&bih=1289

But the snopes article is extremely misleading in itself, especially when it choose to show open pit oil sands as part of the article. That particular image shown is not of a lithium mine, but many open pit mines look like that, and they do include lithium mines. Open pit is a mining process.

https://www.mining.com/mineral-resou...eal-albemarle/



This is a real image of an open pit lithium mine. Snopes cant mislead here.

And cobalt mining is a large part of battery production as well, and they are looking like this as well

https://www.foreignbrief.com/africa/...trouble-congo/



https://www.zmescience.com/science/l...mining-098534/

The risks of lithium mining
Lack of water in the region is not just the single potential problem with lithium mining. Toxic chemicals can leak from the evaporation pools to the water supply, such as hydrochloric acid, which is used in the processing of lithium – as well as waste products that can filter out of the brine.

In the United States, Canada, and Australia, lithium is usually extracted from the rock by using more traditional methods. Nevertheless, this still requires the use of chemicals in order to extract it in a useful form. In Nevada, the research found impacts on fish 150 miles downstream from a lithium processing operation, for example.

A report by Friends of the Earth argued that extracting lithium can affect the soil and causes air contamination.

No matter how you try to spin it, lithium and cobalt mining is extremely destructive to the environment. And that's not even considering the exploitation of 3rd world countries, its population and child labour for the sake of battery production under the guise of promoting clean energy with electric cars.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graph...m-ion-battery/


TYPICAL ELECTRIC CAR
10 to 20 pounds

People are often total hypocrites when it comes to industries to target.

[Looch City]

Y'all are acting like Subway is shutting down entirely and we can't even get single meat subs anymore...

My viewpoint on this is that it's unfortunate but not unforeseen. I refuse to believe that there are any execs or VPs out there that didn't see this coming earlier in 2020 (after Biden's plans were revealed).

We're a province of extremely smart and innovative individuals that can and will come up with another solution.

Maybe KXL with it's long and exhausting history has to just die for another less tainted name to take it's place?

All I know, and I can't believe I have to say this again, is that yes....Biden will be much easier to deal and comprise with than Donald ####ing Trump.

[Ducay]

Originally Posted by Looch City

Y'all are acting like Subway is shutting down entirely and we can't even get single meat subs anymore...

My viewpoint on this is that it's unfortunate but not unforeseen. I refuse to believe that there are any execs or VPs out there that didn't see this coming earlier in 2020 (after Biden's plans were revealed).

We're a province of extremely smart and innovative individuals that can and will come up with another solution.

Maybe KXL with it's long and exhausting history has to just die for another less tainted name to take it's place?

All I know, and I can't believe I have to say this again, is that yes....Biden will be much easier to deal and comprise with than Donald ####ing Trump.

We're right to be mad when governments at all levels on both sides of the border have bungled this situation up so much for vanity's sake and a whole host of other bad reasons.

You act like a magical 3rd option exists - no - its either pipe in the ground or it is going by truck and rail. Look at the rail contracts pre-curtailment, which I imagine is where we are heading back to. Those options are so much more environmentally risky and damaging that alone they point out how stupid the pipeline fight is. You've just replaced a safe pipeline with 10,000 trucks and rail cars waiting for an accident to happen.

And never mind the multitude of other impacts these brutal decisions have that only net increase fossil fuel emissions globally. Crippling the supply side domestically does nothing to reduce demand globally except force us all to import more cheap crude from sketchy places and load our roads and rails with a bunch of bombs and leaks waiting to happen.

[Cecil Terwilliger]

Originally Posted by DiracSpike

It’s truly amazing how much ass ####ing Canadians will accept as long as it’s being done by a democrat. Pretty embarrassing actually.

Hopefully this is all the damage Biden does to our province but it’s such a big step to take on day one that I doubt it. We still have line 3 and line 5 fights going on in the states that Biden could hurt us on if he really wanted to. These obstructionists have succeeded in blocking new pipelines and now they’re moving on towards blocking replacements and even decommissioning existing infrastructure. It’s possible we could be looking at a reduction of 1.75 million barrels a day in future and existing capacity soon, critically injuring Alberta’s economy for years. But hey, at least we got trump out amirite? His tweets made my tummy hurt.

lol. This is so ignorant of how US politics and global politics work it's funny. Or sad. I can't decide. I'm impressed at your ability to turn it into a pro trump partisan issue though.

Here's a thought you've clearly never had: Welcome to living in a country that is not a global superpower/hegemony.

[Wastedyouth]

Originally Posted by DiracSpike

It’s truly amazing how much ass ####ing Canadians will accept as long as it’s being done by a democrat. Pretty embarrassing actually.

Hopefully this is all the damage Biden does to our province but it’s such a big step to take on day one that I doubt it. We still have line 3 and line 5 fights going on in the states that Biden could hurt us on if he really wanted to. These obstructionists have succeeded in blocking new pipelines and now they’re moving on towards blocking replacements and even decommissioning existing infrastructure. It’s possible we could be looking at a reduction of 1.75 million barrels a day in future and existing capacity soon, critically injuring Alberta’s economy for years. But hey, at least we got trump out amirite? His tweets made my tummy hurt.

Settle down, Jason.

[Ashartus]

Originally Posted by Firebot

No matter how you try to spin it, lithium and cobalt mining is extremely destructive to the environment. And that's not even considering the exploitation of 3rd world countries, its population and child labour for the sake of battery production under the guise of promoting clean energy with electric cars.

That's why we need to become leaders in lithium production. There are a lot of areas in Alberta where it looks viable to convert old oil and gas wells to lithium production, and multiple companies are onboard for this.

[Looch City]

Originally Posted by Ducay

We're right to be mad when governments at all levels on both sides of the border have bungled this situation up so much for vanity's sake and a whole host of other bad reasons.

You act like a magical 3rd option exists - no - its either pipe in the ground or it is going by truck and rail. Look at the rail contracts pre-curtailment, which I imagine is where we are heading back to. Those options are so much more environmentally risky and damaging that alone they point out how stupid the pipeline fight is. You've just replaced a safe pipeline with 10,000 trucks and rail cars waiting for an accident to happen.

And never mind the multitude of other impacts these brutal decisions have that only net increase fossil fuel emissions globally. Crippling the supply side domestically does nothing to reduce demand globally except force us all to import more cheap crude from sketchy places and load our roads and rails with a bunch of bombs and leaks waiting to happen.

I completely agree with you. For what it's worth, I work in this industry and know full well that pipelines are safer and that the oil will flow either way.

However, for this pipeline specifically, public perception is what matters most. In my opinion, the American public do not want this pipeline and we should stop trying to ram it through and then pout when it doesn't go our way. At what point does chasing this project become just a bad business decision because of all the negative press?

This article/survey is from 2017:
Public divided over Keystone XL, Dakota pipelines; Democrats turn decisively against Keystone

Support for the Keystone XL pipeline has declined among nearly all demographic groups since 2014. As was the case then, there are gender, age and educational differences in attitudes about the project.

Most men favor building the Keystone pipeline, while most women are opposed. And while a majority of those 65 and older favor its construction, those younger than 30 oppose it by about two-to-one (59% to 29%). Adults who have not completed college also are more likely to favor Keystone than are those with at least a four-year degree.

Spoiler!

What's even worse are the many recent pipeline failures on the Keystone PL (and yes I know this is a different pipeline but that does not matter for the general public perception of KXL).

http://boldnebraska.org/keystone-pip...spill-history/

[Sliver]

Originally Posted by Firebot

I stand corrected on a technicality, it's one of the images shown with a google search, and one of many similar due to a misuse of it.

https://www.google.com/search?q=lith...=2533&bih=1289

But the snopes article is extremely misleading in itself, especially when it choose to show open pit oil sands as part of the article. That particular image shown is not of a lithium mine, but many open pit mines look like that, and they do include lithium mines. Open pit is a mining process.

https://www.mining.com/mineral-resou...eal-albemarle/



This is a real image of an open pit lithium mine. Snopes cant mislead here.

And cobalt mining is a large part of battery production as well, and they are looking like this as well

https://www.foreignbrief.com/africa/...trouble-congo/



https://www.zmescience.com/science/l...mining-098534/



No matter how you try to spin it, lithium and cobalt mining is extremely destructive to the environment. And that's not even considering the exploitation of 3rd world countries, its population and child labour for the sake of battery production under the guise of promoting clean energy with electric cars.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graph...m-ion-battery/


TYPICAL ELECTRIC CAR
10 to 20 pounds

People are often total hypocrites when it comes to industries to target.

Yeah, it's ugly but who gives a fata? It's not like I'm going to build a house overlooking that pit and let my kids swim at the bottom of the hole. Come to my shop in the foothills industrial park - it's ugly, too, and we use weird chemicals and products here as well. Anything you own that has been manufactured sources raw materials from ugly places and creates waste. Existing creates waste and damages natural ecosystems.

So we fata up like 20 square kilometers out of the 510 square kilometers of land there is on earth to give increase the quality of life for millions of people. BFD. This is barely a scratch in the surface of the planet.

[Scroopy Noopers]

The outright refusal of AB elected governments to acknowledge the changing world has frustrated me my entire life.

When I was in high school I told my dad, and friends, outright that I wasn’t going to follow in his footsteps. I recall saying “there is no way the industry will be the same when I’m mid career age”. That was 21 years ago.

Me, the guy who barely passed high school. I, who then went back to improve my highschool classes and barely passed that (and failed one). Because, I’m not an overly intelligent individual. That’s how ####ing obvious this has been for 20+ years. But no, everyone I’ve ever known who works in the industry is hard against any change, and throws money around like they’re in a rap video. People who’s job it is to ensure money is flowing in the province either ignored the obvious, or straight up couldn’t understand that things would change.

Blaming others for this mess drives me nuts. When this current party was elected they flat out said they weren’t looking to diversify. What!? Are you kidding me? I’m 100% pro Alberta oil, and we should be North America’s source no question. At this point though, after all the money we’ve made (I recall seeing dollar figures in bold headlines during Ralph times... we’ve been rubbing it in everyone’s faces since day 1), we should be a national leader in energy R&D. We could be the national leaders in nuclear, anything. “Here is our 40 year plan to sell our oil, grow AB jobs, and transition into a changing world as a leader”. But no, nope. It’s everyone else’s fault.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Scroopy Noopers

The outright refusal of AB elected governments to acknowledge the changing world has frustrated me my entire life.

When I was in high school I told my dad, and friends, outright that I wasn’t going to follow in his footsteps. I recall saying “there is no way the industry will be the same when I’m mid career age”. That was 21 years ago.

Me, the guy who barely passed high school. I, who then went back to improve my highschool classes and barely passed that (and failed one). Because, I’m not an overly intelligent individual. That’s how ####ing obvious this has been for 20+ years. But no, everyone I’ve ever known who works in the industry is hard against any change, and throws money around like they’re in a rap video. People who’s job it is to ensure money is flowing in the province either ignored the obvious, or straight up couldn’t understand that things would change.

Blaming others for this mess drives me nuts. When this current party was elected they flat out said they weren’t looking to diversify. What!? Are you kidding me? I’m 100% pro Alberta oil, and we should be North America’s source no question. At this point though, after all the money we’ve made (I recall seeing dollar figures in bold headlines during Ralph times... we’ve been rubbing it in everyone’s faces since day 1), we should be a national leader in energy R&D. We could be the national leaders in nuclear, anything. “Here is our 40 year plan to sell our oil, grow AB jobs, and transition into a changing world as a leader”. But no, nope. It’s everyone else’s fault.

You know what's worn thin already? People running around doing victory laps saying "I told you so" when thousands of people will be put out of work due to this decision. Frankly, it's embarrassing.

[Thunderball]

Originally Posted by Scroopy Noopers

The outright refusal of AB elected governments to acknowledge the changing world has frustrated me my entire life.

When I was in high school I told my dad, and friends, outright that I wasn’t going to follow in his footsteps. I recall saying “there is no way the industry will be the same when I’m mid career age”. That was 21 years ago.

Me, the guy who barely passed high school. I, who then went back to improve my highschool classes and barely passed that (and failed one). Because, I’m not an overly intelligent individual. That’s how ####ing obvious this has been for 20+ years. But no, everyone I’ve ever known who works in the industry is hard against any change, and throws money around like they’re in a rap video. People who’s job it is to ensure money is flowing in the province either ignored the obvious, or straight up couldn’t understand that things would change.

Blaming others for this mess drives me nuts. When this current party was elected they flat out said they weren’t looking to diversify. What!? Are you kidding me? I’m 100% pro Alberta oil, and we should be North America’s source no question. At this point though, after all the money we’ve made (I recall seeing dollar figures in bold headlines during Ralph times... we’ve been rubbing it in everyone’s faces since day 1), we should be a national leader in energy R&D. We could be the national leaders in nuclear, anything. “Here is our 40 year plan to sell our oil, grow AB jobs, and transition into a changing world as a leader”. But no, nope. It’s everyone else’s fault.

I mostly agree with you. It's absolutely true that the prior generations completely squandered wealth (including the federal governments who were all too happy to accept the higher tax revenues from Alberta taxpayers with no foresight or support). It's also true that this is the first generation that will absolutely do worse than their parents.

What I don't agree with is this one dimensional view that all political parties seem to have. You can diversify and be a strong advocate for oil and gas, which is why the NDP were idiots for not advocating for energy, and the UCP are idiots for pulling back the subsidies/programs for tech and other industries that the NDP actually did right.

As an aside, my family made their money in O&G, and like you, I also saw the writing on the wall that the money just wouldn't be the same to sustain my career. One could say the same about law though. The money is still very good, but not even close to what firms were doing in the 1980s. We also don't have a massive gain on our principal residences to look forward to help fund our retirement and harvest tax free like the prior generations.

Biden is a jerk for what he did and despite the lipstick on the pig approach our government is taking, he is not a friend to Canada, he's as self interested as Trump, but in a smoother and more likable package. That said, he's very much a political creature, and you don't blame someone for acting in their nature when you should know better. You don't last nearly 50 years in politics if you aren't. I don't blame him, he has no obligation to us other than loyalty to an ally and honouring free trade, but that is barely worth the paper it is printed on nowadays. I blame the Liberals, and I also blame both Notley and Kenney (and Redford and Stelmach) for all being one dimensional rubes.

Canada has made two fatal mistakes in my view:

First, we made ourselves dependent on the Americans one too many times, and they know it. Why do us favours when they have a nice little reserve supply that they can "help us tap" if they need it, while winning support by vilifying it in the short term. Energy East was essential to confederation, whether the east sees it or not. Without it, we're simply too dependent on others.

Second, Canadians lack the killer instinct the rest of the world has. We're like the middle child of a rich parent. We assume we're going to be taken care of because we're agreeable and because we have only known wealth in our lives. There is no doubt that fossil fuels will be phased out. It might be 10 years, it might be 100 years. Every single other producing nation is going to be trying to squeeze every last penny out of this, from the US, to Norway to Saudi and everyone in between. They also smell weakness, so they pick on Canada to camouflage their own efforts. Meanwhile, we are being "good citizens of the world" and refusing to support an income stream necessary to help us pay for the oncoming demographic nightmare when the baby boomers retire and die out with insufficient wealth to support their retirement. We also lack the motivation to fix what is now an insurmountable task to build projects. The quest for consensus and reconciliation means a lot of people's livelihoods (including FNs) are at risk now, and it didn't have to be this way.

It's going to be a tough decade, that's for sure. We have a lot of desperate and hopeless people in this province, and likely soon, this country.

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by Slava

You know what's worn thin already? People running around doing victory laps saying "I told you so" when thousands of people will be put out of work due to this decision. Frankly, it's embarrassing.

Victory laps!? I’m devastated. It directly financially impacts countless people I care about.

I’m using it as an example to express disappointment in government after government. An obviously self deprecating example at that. Did you bother to read it? Certainly not bragging, Jesus.