2020/2021 Trade Speculation and Rumours

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I can’t agree. He’s just not that great defensively. He’s too slow footed to be great positionally. People think he is because he’s gritty. But I just think he gets caught a fair bit.

Yeah, it’s pretty tough to be an elite backchecker in the NHL if you don’t have great wheels. Tkachuk is a very good possession player. But he’s average without the puck.

[AustinL_NHL]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Great offensive players can also have good metrics - the offence make up for defence.

I don’t think Tkachuk is good enough defensively to cover for Johnny and Monahan. He can’t take Lindholm’s place that way. Especially off wing.

In terms of overall play, yes. But even when you cut it down and look at his defensive metrics individually (which I did in the post you quoted), they're still tops on the team.

As the post below you said, you have to look no further than the Oilers to see McDavid and Draisaitl, who are incredible offensive players and their numbers look great overall, but when their defensive metrics are looked at individually, you can see how brutal they are defensively (literally worst on their team), whereas Tkachuk is amazing offensively AND defensively.

You are really, reeeally underrating Tkachuk here.

Just for reference, here's Tkachuk's, McDavid's and Draisaitl's impacts defensively (negatives in this case are good):

Tkachuk:
CA/60 Rel: -3.47 (best on Flames)
FA/60 Rel: -2.81 (3rd best on Flames)
SA/60 Rel: -1.65 (3rd best on Flames)
xGA/60 Rel: 0.04 (7th best on Flames)
SCA/60 Rel: -1.06 (6th best on Flames)
HDCA/60 Rel: -0.26 (4th best on Flames)

McDavid:
CA/60 Rel: 4.5 (worst on Oilers)
FA/60 Rel: 6.64 (worst on Oilers)
SA/60 Rel: 6.13 (worst on Oilers)
xGA/60 Rel: 0.64 (worst on Oilers)
SCA/60 Rel: 4.56 (worst on Oilers)
HDCA/60 Rel: 3.22 (worst on Oilers)

Draisaitl:
CA/60 Rel: 4.36 (2nd worst on Oilers)
FA/60 Rel: 4.97 (2nd worst on Oilers)
SA/60 Rel: 5.03 (2nd worst on Oilers)
xGA/60 Rel: 0.45 (2nd worst on Oilers)
SCA/60 Rel: 4.03 (2nd worst on Oilers)
HDCA/60 Rel: 2.49 (2nd worst on Oilers)

As you can see, McDavid and Draisaitl, who both have amazing offensive metrics, are literally the worst two Oilers forwards defensively by far. It's actually quite funny how bad they are defensively.

Tkachuk, on the other hand, has great offensive metrics as well as defensive metrics.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by AustinL_NHL

In terms of overall play, yes. But even when you cut it down and look at his defensive metrics individually (which I did in the post you quoted), they're still tops on the team.

As the post below you said, you have to look no further than the Oilers to see McDavid and Draisaitl, who are incredible offensive players and their numbers look great overall, but when their defensive metrics are looked at individually, you can see how brutal they are defensively (literally worst on their team), whereas Tkachuk is amazing offensively AND defensively.

You are really, reeeally underrating Tkachuk here

Using McDavid and Draisaitl as examples is misleading to say the least. They don’t even try to play D.

I just don’t think Tkachuk is amazing at D and certainly not enough to anchor a line defensively, as proposed. He’s not a liability but he’s not Backlund or Lindholm. I think Ryan and Dube are better defensively as well.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Using McDavid and Draisaitl as examples is misleading to say the least. They don’t even try to play D.

I just don’t think Tkachuk is amazing at D and certainly not enough to anchor a line defensively, as proposed. He’s not a liability but he’s not Backlund or Lindholm. I think Ryan and Dube are better defensively as well.

Put another way - when Lindholm was playing well, he freed Gaudreau and Monahan, because he could cover. I just don’t see that in Tkachuk - he’s not coming back from behind the offensive net, to be a backchecking force. He doesn’t have the wheels.

I’d need to see Tkachuk’s stats isolated from Backlund.

[AustinL_NHL]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Using McDavid and Draisaitl as examples is misleading to say the least. They don’t even try to play D.

I just don’t think Tkachuk is amazing at D and certainly not enough to anchor a line defensively, as proposed. He’s not a liability but he’s not Backlund or Lindholm. I think Ryan and Dube are better defensively as well.

I love Dube as much as anyone and think he's gonna be a great two-way player, but he's got a long ways to go before he's a good defensive player. He had among the worst defensive metrics on the Flames last season.

Lindholm, Backlund and Ryan all had pretty good years defensively, but again, their numbers didn't quite match up to Tkachuk, who was simply great defensively.

All the numbers support Tkachuk being the Flames' best or one of their best defensive forwards. It's just fact. That's something to be happy about.

[AustinL_NHL]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Put another way - when Lindholm was playing well, he freed Gaudreau and Monahan, because he could cover. I just don’t see that in Tkachuk - he’s not coming back from behind the offensive net, to be a backchecking force. He doesn’t have the wheels.

I’d need to see Tkachuk’s stats isolated from Backlund.

No problem.

Tkachuk with Backlund:

CA/60 Rel: -4.33
FA/60 Rel: -4.01
SA/60 Rel: -3.08
xGA/60 Rel: 0.03
SCA/60 Rel: -0.7
HDCA/60 Rel: -0.3

Tkachuk without Backlund:

CA/60 Rel: -1.1
FA/60 Rel: -0.27
SA/60 Rel: 0.75
xGA/60 Rel: 0.04
SCA/60 Rel: -1.11
HDCA/60 Rel: -0.1

Backlund without Tkachuk:

CA/60 Rel: 6.94
FA/60 Rel: 6.73
SA/60 Rel: 3.81
xGA/60 Rel: 0.27
SCA/60 Rel: 3.9
HDCA/60 Rel: 0.27

In short, they were great together, but when separated, while both their numbers declined, Tkachuk was still solid defensively away from Backlund while Backlund struggled miiiiightily defensively away from Tkachuk.

Again, Tkachuk is simply great defensively.

[GioforPM]

Fine. I still don’t buy him being the defensive conscience on a line with Johnny and Monahan. I think you need a guy with decent wheels to do it.

And I think Dube is terrific defensively. I don’t really care about his metrics as a 3-4 line rookie - he’s got defensive chops.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by AustinL_NHL

No problem.

Tkachuk with Backlund:

CA/60 Rel: -4.33
FA/60 Rel: -4.01
SA/60 Rel: -3.08
xGA/60 Rel: 0.03
SCA/60 Rel: -0.7
HDCA/60 Rel: -0.3

Tkachuk without Backlund:

CA/60 Rel: -1.1
FA/60 Rel: -0.27
SA/60 Rel: 0.75
xGA/60 Rel: 0.04
SCA/60 Rel: -1.11
HDCA/60 Rel: -0.1

Backlund without Tkachuk:

CA/60 Rel: 6.94
FA/60 Rel: 6.73
SA/60 Rel: 3.81
xGA/60 Rel: 0.27
SCA/60 Rel: 3.9
HDCA/60 Rel: 0.27

In short, they were great together, but when separated, while both their numbers declined, Tkachuk was still solid defensively away from Backlund while Backlund struggled miiiiightily defensively away from Tkachuk.

Again, Tkachuk is simply great defensively.

I'm not sure those stats have validity without context.

Backlund away from Tkachuk, last year, was playing wing with Monahan and Gaudreau. He was totally out of his element with two players who struggle defensively as it is.

Tkachuk away from Backlund last year, was still playing with Mangiapane and Lindholm, still two of our best 200 foot forwards.

Tkachuk is strong defensively, but I do not think he's our best defensive forward.

[BigErnSalute_16]

Lol @ GioforPM

GioforPM: "This guy sucks defensively"

other poster: "Well actually he doesn't."

GioforPM: He's too slow to be a defensive conscience, he sucks defensively show me how I'm wrong.

other poster: Ok here are the stats that prove that he is good defensively.

GioforPM: Offense makes up for those numbers.

other poster: Well McDavid and Draisaitl suck despite great offence. And tkachuk is top of the team in a bunch of categories.

Giofor PM: McDavid doesn’t count he doesn’t try to play defense. Ryan and Dube are better defensively.

Other Poster: Dube has a long way to go. some of the worst metrics on the team.

GioforPM: I don't believe you. Dube is Awesome, Tkachuk is carried by backlund. I’d like to see him away from backlund.

Other poster: Ok here are his numbers away from backlund, still pretty good.

Gio for PM: fine. you’re still wrong and Dube is still awesome defensively despite 0 facts or stats that back up my claim.

[Yoho]

This threads doing well in the off season.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by BigErnSalute_16

Lol @ GioforPM

GioforPM: "This guy sucks defensively"

other poster: "Well actually he doesn't."

GioforPM: He's too slow to be a defensive conscience, he sucks defensively show me how I'm wrong.

other poster: Ok here are the stats that prove that he is good defensively.

GioforPM: Offense makes up for those numbers.

other poster: Well McDavid and Draisaitl suck despite great offence. And tkachuk is top of the team in a bunch of categories.

Giofor PM: McDavid doesn’t count he doesn’t try to play defense. Ryan and Dube are better defensively.

Other Poster: Dube has a long way to go. some of the worst metrics on the team.

GioforPM: I don't believe you. Dube is Awesome, Tkachuk is carried by backlund. I’d like to see him away from backlund.

Other poster: Ok here are his numbers away from backlund, still pretty good.

Gio for PM: fine. you’re still wrong and Dube is still awesome defensively despite 0 facts or stats that back up my claim.

Fair enough, though a bit overstated. I still think Dube is great defensively.

That was a lot of work over a fairly tepid debate.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

I

Tkachuk is strong defensively, but I do not think he's our best defensive forward.

This is ultimate semantics, but I think the claims were:

- best two-way forward
- one of the best defensive forwards

And I think those arguments have been defended well.

Backlund and Lindholm (and maybe a few others) are almost certainly better than Tkachuk defensively, but their offensive delta is greater than their D delta.

Perhaps overly simplistic, but:

D:
Backlund >>>Tkachuk
Lindholm>>Tkachuk

O:
Backlund<<<<<Tkachuk
Lindholm<<<Tkachuk

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

This is ultimate semantics, but I think the claims were:

- best two-way forward
- one of the best defensive forwards

And I think those arguments have been defended well.

Backlund and Lindholm (and maybe a few others) are almost certainly better than Tkachuk defensively, but their offensive delta is greater than their D delta.

Perhaps overly simplistic, but:

D:
Backlund >>>Tkachuk
Lindholm>>Tkachuk

O:
Backlund<<<<<Tkachuk
Lindholm<<<Tkachuk

Perhaps it’s more fit on the line as opposed to “good defensively”. Because there’s different aspects to good defence. Once set up in their own zone, Tkachuk is perfectly fine defensively. I’m not sure he’s the guy to make up for Monahan’s lack of speed on a backcheck (frankly I think Monahan is decent enough defensively once they are back in formation) or Gaudreau’s overall defensive game. I think they need someone with a bit more speed and maybe who plays defence more like a centre (like Lindholm).

So it’s not so much that Tkachuk isn’t a very good 2 way guy or even that he isn’t good defensively (I accept I am wrong there according to stats). I just don’t like the thought of him playing the Lindholm role. Especially from the RW.

Of course I thought Backlund could play the Lindholm role and I was way off.

[AustinL_NHL]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

I'm not sure those stats have validity without context.

Backlund away from Tkachuk, last year, was playing wing with Monahan and Gaudreau. He was totally out of his element with two players who struggle defensively as it is.

Tkachuk away from Backlund last year, was still playing with Mangiapane and Lindholm, still two of our best 200 foot forwards.

Tkachuk is strong defensively, but I do not think he's our best defensive forward.

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Perhaps it’s more fit on the line as opposed to “good defensively”. Because there’s different aspects to good defence. Once set up in their own zone, Tkachuk is perfectly fine defensively. I’m not sure he’s the guy to make up for Monahan’s lack of speed on a backcheck (frankly I think Monahan is decent enough defensively once they are back in formation) or Gaudreau’s overall defensive game. I think they need someone with a bit more speed and maybe who plays defence more like a centre (like Lindholm).

So it’s not so much that Tkachuk isn’t a very good 2 way guy or even that he isn’t good defensively (I accept I am wrong there according to stats). I just don’t like the thought of him playing the Lindholm role. Especially from the RW.

Of course I thought Backlund could play the Lindholm role and I was way off.

Let me preface this by saying I'm not one of the people who love the idea of Tkachuk being with Gaudreau and Monahan.

Let's look at it this way and compare how Tkachuk has fared with Gaudreau and Monahan vs how Backlund has fared over the last 3 seasons (to give us a decent enough sample size).

Tkachuk with Monahan & Gaudreau (132:26 total TOI):

CA/60 Rel: -2.48
FA/60 Rel: -1.12
SA/60 Rel: 0.5
xGA/60 Rel: 0.2
SCA/60 Rel: 2.54
HDCA/60 Rel: -1.97

Backlund with Monahan & Gaudreau (174:37 total TOI):

CA/60 Rel: 5.5
FA/60 Rel: 5.4
SA/60 Rel: 4.78
xGA/60 Rel: 0.37
SCA/60 Rel: 8.42
HDCA/60 Rel: -0.16

Tkachuk with Monahan & Gaudreau has had good defensive impacts and has overall been a dominant line together.

Backlund with Monahan & Gaudreau has, in every sense of the word, been a complete disaster when put together.

[Rick M.]

If Backlund had centred that line, things might have been quite different.

[Strange Brew]

My feeling is Tkachuk is pretty good in his own zone. Aware and sound positionally, strong on the puck against the boards, can win puck battles. But not fast enough to be a superior back checker.

A guy like Gaudreau can be pretty effective on the back check but does little to help his team get out of the zone. That’s why so often his line gets stuck in their zone, pretty much feast or famine. A center with a 200 foot game would really help Gaudreau.

[AustinL_NHL]

Originally Posted by Rick M.

If Backlund had centred that line, things might have been quite different.

Sure, then you would've had Monahan playing a position he's never played.

Even then, the line has been so bad together that simply swapping Backlund and Monahan, even if it turned out to have a positive effect, wouldn't be anywhere close to drastic enough to completely swap their horrible results.

Backlund is an excellent player and has been the Flames' best two-way center for 6+ years now. Tkachuk has just proven that he's been more effective defensively as a LW'er than Backlund has as a C, which isn't a sleight to Backlund at all, because C is the toughest position to play, but Tkachuk has simply proven that relative to his peers and his peers' positions that he's been one of, if not the Flames' best 5v5 defensive forward since he entered the NHL.

[dammage79]

Boy do we need some hockey....
Badly. Id really love for things to move on from last season.

[dissentowner]

Lots of trade rumours I see...

[1qqaaz]

True, but the last few pages have actually had some pretty good quality hockey discussions.

Not bad for the middle of the offseason.