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Old 10-28-2020, 05:53 PM   #3121
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Originally Posted by CliffFletcher View Post
Or maybe we should all abide with the restrictions the public health experts have presented to us. Restrictions which include an allowance for: work or school; our core family or social cohort; one other group or activity. If some people want that other group or activity to be church, Iím okay with that. So are the people overseeing our pandemic measures.

The experts donít want the whole population to restrict their socialization to the extent that some people here are advocating because it would be bad for public health. The public health response to covid involves calibrating between two bad health outcomes - increased covid fatalities and increased distress and mental illness due to prolonged social isolation.
Sure, if 100% of the population was abiding by the restrictions the public health experts have presented to us. We all know many are not. Just because you are restricting to 1. Work 2. Cohort 3. Church doesn't mean many others are.
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Old 10-28-2020, 05:59 PM   #3122
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Originally Posted by CliffFletcher View Post
Or maybe we should all abide with the restrictions the public health experts have presented to us. Restrictions which include an allowance for: work or school; our core family or social cohort; one other group or activity. If some people want that other group or activity to be church, Iím okay with that. So are the people overseeing our pandemic measures.

The experts donít want the whole population to restrict their socialization to the extent that some people here are advocating because it would be bad for public health. The public health response to covid involves calibrating between two bad health outcomes - increased covid fatalities and increased distress and mental illness due to prolonged social isolation.
The medical advice we're getting from the province is compromised. I don't mean that in the sense that it has been corrupted...I mean - by necessity - it is a compromise between health, the economy and other political factors. As such, it actually isn't the best medical advice so you need to extrapolate what they publicly say and balance it against what you know to be true.

You know this virus spreads indoors in groups of people sharing the same space and breathing the same air. That's a fact.

You know that there are alternatives to meet your needs for social interaction that don't include going to one building and staying inside it in one room for an extended period of time. That's a fact.

You know there have been numerous outbreaks of the virus all around the world - including in Alberta - linked to church services. That's a fact.

It would be better if people from various groups and cohorts did not meet once (or more) per week inside when alternatives that accomplish the same thing exist.

The provincial government won't close churches right now because of the emotional reaction from churchgoers and resulting political fallout. That's why they're open. It's not a good thing that they're open from the perspective of limiting covid spread.
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Old 10-28-2020, 06:14 PM   #3123
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Originally Posted by blankall View Post
The CDC posted a breakdown of their predicted deaths for the USA up to October 3rd:

Through 3rd week of October
Predicted Observed Difference
2018 2,295,178 2,287,231 (7,947)
2019 2,337,396 2,289,038 (48,358)
2020 2,305,697 2,600,385 294,688

Their figures of excess deaths are based on a decrease of 32k deaths year over year...deaths have been increasing in the USA by about 40k per year and this number has been accelerating.
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No, their prediction is based on an increase of nearly 17K deaths (2.306M is almost 17K more than 2.289) through October. You're comparing this year's prediction vs. last year's prediction, but what you should be comparing is this year's prediction vs last year's actual, since actual deaths in prior years is what it's based on.

Maybe that's too low (it probably is), but it doesn't really change much of anything. Even if it should've been 30K higher than last year's death total as you say (40K pro-rated over the 9 months that the data covers), that still only puts expected deaths at 2,319,038. That means the excess death number is 281,347 instead of 294,688, a difference of 13,341.
Bingo. Perhaps their public numbers are actually that simple, but I've always found it hard to believe that statisticians aren't actually diving deeper into the available data to produce these predictions. Weighted averages skewed to recency overlayed with demographic info.
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Old 10-28-2020, 06:16 PM   #3124
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Originally Posted by Sliver View Post
The medical advice we're getting from the province is compromised. I don't mean that in the sense that it has been corrupted...I mean - by necessity - it is a compromise between health, the economy and other political factors. As such, it actually isn't the best medical advice so you need to extrapolate what they publicly say and balance it against what you know to be true.

You know this virus spreads indoors in groups of people sharing the same space and breathing the same air. That's a fact.

You know that there are alternatives to meet your needs for social interaction that don't include going to one building and staying inside it in one room for an extended period of time. That's a fact.

You know there have been numerous outbreaks of the virus all around the world - including in Alberta - linked to church services. That's a fact.

It would be better if people from various groups and cohorts did not meet once (or more) per week inside when alternatives that accomplish the same thing exist.

The provincial government won't close churches right now because of the emotional reaction from churchgoers and resulting political fallout. That's why they're open. It's not a good thing that they're open from the perspective of limiting covid spread.
But how will they eat the cracker and drink the juice/wine virtually?
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Old 10-28-2020, 06:31 PM   #3125
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Originally Posted by Sliver View Post
The medical advice we're getting from the province is compromised. I don't mean that in the sense that it has been corrupted...I mean - by necessity - it is a compromise between health, the economy and other political factors. As such, it actually isn't the best medical advice so you need to extrapolate what they publicly say and balance it against what you know to be true.

You know this virus spreads indoors in groups of people sharing the same space and breathing the same air. That's a fact.

You know that there are alternatives to meet your needs for social interaction that don't include going to one building and staying inside it in one room for an extended period of time. That's a fact.

You know there have been numerous outbreaks of the virus all around the world - including in Alberta - linked to church services. That's a fact.

It would be better if people from various groups and cohorts did not meet once (or more) per week inside when alternatives that accomplish the same thing exist.

The provincial government won't close churches right now because of the emotional reaction from churchgoers and resulting political fallout. That's why they're open. It's not a good thing that they're open from the perspective of limiting covid spread.
You don't know this to be a fact. Have there been numerous outbreaks in Alberta Churches? I haven't heard about them.

There are publicised cases in the US of churches spreading covid. Those places don't have the same protocols as Alberta.

Why aren't you crusading against gyms? Fitness needs can be met outside of gyms. People can work out at home or outside. Their needs can be met with the closing of gyms and many of them have had outbreaks.
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Old 10-28-2020, 06:37 PM   #3126
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You don't know this to be a fact. Have there been numerous outbreaks in Alberta Churches? I haven't heard about them.

There are publicised cases in the US of churches spreading covid. Those places don't have the same protocols as Alberta.

Why aren't you crusading against gyms? Fitness needs can be met outside of gyms. People can work out at home or outside. Their needs can be met with the closing of gyms and many of them have had outbreaks.
https://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpo...postcount=3033

Posted earlier. Three outbreaks linked to churches right here.
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Old 10-28-2020, 06:39 PM   #3127
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A guy earlier in the thread pointed to links that showed a total of 87 cases attributable to public worship. It seemed to be accepted as proof positive of there being a problem.
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Old 10-28-2020, 07:39 PM   #3128
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Should we move the specific religion based debate to another thread. This might be moving away from covid to being more about belief systems.
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Old 10-28-2020, 08:23 PM   #3129
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Should we move the specific religion based debate to another thread. This might be moving away from covid to being more about belief systems.
Title suggestion:

COVID Killing Indiscriminately; Where's Your God Now?

Just a joke, please don't get angry.
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Old 10-28-2020, 08:34 PM   #3130
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Originally Posted by agulati View Post
Should we move the specific religion based debate to another thread. This might be moving away from covid to being more about belief systems.
I don't think pointing out that can outbreaks happen at churches is questioning belief systems but is stating facts that people should be aware of if they choose to attend services. Just like restaurants, parties or any other place outbreaks may happen, I like to keep it all in one place. You are correct if someone uses it as an excuse to bash religious beliefs sure, but I haven't seen that here yet.

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Old 10-28-2020, 09:14 PM   #3131
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We are now between 4 and 6000 new cases a day here in illinois.
New record of 6110 today.
What a ####ing mess.
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Old 10-28-2020, 09:15 PM   #3132
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~504 000 new cases today worldwide. New peak. Not ideal.
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Old 10-28-2020, 09:23 PM   #3133
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3000 students isolating in the CCSD up from 1000 two weeks ago. Thatís about 5% of the student body.

If this level could be held steady it would mean about 2 weeks per year per student. If it continues to grow we will be back online by Christmas. We need to slow down community spread
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Old 10-28-2020, 09:46 PM   #3134
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3000 students isolating in the CCSD up from 1000 two weeks ago. Thatís about 5% of the student body.

If this level could be held steady it would mean about 2 weeks per year per student. If it continues to grow we will be back online by Christmas. We need to slow down community spread
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Looks like you'll need one long before I will. May I suggest deflection king?
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Old 10-28-2020, 09:56 PM   #3135
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~504 000 new cases today worldwide. New peak. Not ideal.
Full herd immunity in just 14,000 more days!
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Old 10-29-2020, 12:29 AM   #3136
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https://theconversation.com/now-ever...g-wrong-144494

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If we donít analyse statistics for a living, itís easy to be taken in by misinformation about COVID-19 statistics on social media, especially if we donít have the right context.

For instance, we may cherry pick statistics supporting our viewpoint and ignore statistics showing we are wrong. We also still need to correctly interpret these statistics.

Itís easy for us to share this misinformation. Many of these statistics are also interrelated, so misunderstandings can quickly multiply.

Hereís how we can avoid five common errors, and impress friends and family by getting the statistics right.
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Old 10-29-2020, 12:54 AM   #3137
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This Silver person sure likes to talk out of his/her a##.
Everything that comes out of your mouth is basically anti-religion and nothing else.

People don't NEED to go to church. Sure.
That's your opinion and I respect that. I'm Catholic and I somewhat agree with you during these times.

BUT, going by that SAME argument, people don't NEED to sit in a restaurant and eat. They don't NEED to sit in a pub and drink beers and and eat wings.
You said yourself that YOU stopped dining in to help prevent the spread. So why is it OK for dine-in services to stay open for OTHERS to enjoy?
You should be getting just as upset at the patrons or the businesses for allowing dine-in as you do the churches.
It is still indoors, same as a church.

Why do people NEED to eat out? Why not cook at home? Why not drink at home? My guess would be social interaction or to get out of the house....

The business doing its part paying taxes and keeping economy going has nothing to do with it. Keep getting takeout and the establishment will chug along just fine without dine-in.
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Old 10-29-2020, 02:37 AM   #3138
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Most restaurants do not chug along just fine without dine in business. The staff that are required for dine in service also do not chug along just fine. Mental health is a serious issue but even more serious is economic health because it is so closely tied to emotional well being. So if there has to be a choice between the two, it's economic health every time. We don't need to dine out for any sort of emotional well being but we do need to maintain the business of dining out ultimately for emotional well being.

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Old 10-29-2020, 02:59 AM   #3139
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Originally Posted by jus_sum_guy View Post
This Silver person sure likes to talk out of his/her a##.
Everything that comes out of your mouth is basically anti-religion and nothing else.

People don't NEED to go to church. Sure.
That's your opinion and I respect that. I'm Catholic and I somewhat agree with you during these times.

BUT, going by that SAME argument, people don't NEED to sit in a restaurant and eat. They don't NEED to sit in a pub and drink beers and and eat wings.
You said yourself that YOU stopped dining in to help prevent the spread. So why is it OK for dine-in services to stay open for OTHERS to enjoy?
You should be getting just as upset at the patrons or the businesses for allowing dine-in as you do the churches.
It is still indoors, same as a church.

Why do people NEED to eat out? Why not cook at home? Why not drink at home? My guess would be social interaction or to get out of the house....

The business doing its part paying taxes and keeping economy going has nothing to do with it. Keep getting takeout and the establishment will chug along just fine without dine-in.
Who’s Silver?

Are you talking about the Tin Man?
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Old 10-29-2020, 09:58 AM   #3140
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Why are we even debating the impacts of worship places, weddings, parties? Yes the odd church practices mask wearing as is mandated. Yes some weddings practice social distancing. But let's stop pretending like they have any business happening in a pandemic, a large number of these do not practice anything resembling anything close to social distancing. People would be shocked to see what goes on. As soon as a ceremony ends or extended family is around, the virus suddenly disappears. We know what causes the spread, but political correctness and economics plays a large part in our restrictions. Yes parties are worse then weddings, and weddings are worse then church gatherings, but they are all very bad for spread. We still have nightclubs closed for example.

Restaurants should be closed but it would be too hurtful for the economy. They are however not as bad as the ones mentioned above.

We were simply lucky for a while that most of these did not cause significant outbreaks because of our very low case numbers (cannot spread what isn't around). We aren't lucky anymore, and more of these gatherings are getting outbreaks simple due to a numbers game. That's why the 15 person social gathering limit was put in place

While Alberta has 5000 actives cases, we barely hear of the Maritimes, where in Nova Scotia, which still has a population of 1 million, they have 5 active cases.

5. They have been often without actives cases for weeks until the odd person brings it back in.

Differences? They have placed mask restrictions at the provincial level, they created a bubble where all cases are isolated and quarantined. Any detractors are shamed.

People in the east still party or go to church, there are similar to people here. The biggest difference is government.

https://novascotia.ca/coronavirus/restriction-updates/

They have been under a state of emergency since March. Alberta ended it in June. They only loosened some restrictions once there were zero cases in the province.
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