I am fine keeping Bennett but people need to be prepared for him not being anywhere near this same player next season. He will have games and flashes where he steps up like this but it is an impossible style to play for 6 months and 82 games.
Hopefully his confidence and offensive touch can remain but no one can throw 7-8 hits a game like he is day in and day out. When he plays engaged like this and the refs tend to call less penalties he thrives and is exactly the player we thought we were getting when he was drafted. I am happy he has shifted back to the middle and it is working. At the end of the day this is currently an 8 game sample size. I think some are getting a little ahead of themselves thinking this is a monumental breakout. He has always been a playoff beast and it has never carried over to the regular season. While I certainly hope it does I have been fooled too many times in the past. I am also not a huge fan of the argument it is not his fault and all due to bad coaches and line mates.
One thing I have always thought about Bennett is he would find his game and succeed once he moved on from the Flames. Optimistically there is a chance he found his role on the Flames after all. I was convinced he would be traded this offseason but I don’t think so anymore.
Last year he was a playoff beast and started with Jankowski and Neal - then got moved up the line-up to try and "fix" Monahan and Gaudreau. Bennett produced 5 points in 5 games.
The next season, he got put on the wing while being centre by Jankowski and with Rieder on the opposite side. Not a good line considering Rieder is a 4th line PK specialist and Jankowski isn't an NHL'er. Slap a non-NHL centre between any two players, and things are generally going to go bad.
This post-season he has played at centre with two NHL players on his wings - and he's not only producing again, but he's producing at an elite level. I'm not saying Bennett is going to produce at an elite level during the regular season, but even if you take his typical 26 point season with strong underlying numbers and slap actual NHL talent on his wings while he plays his naturalposition, he's likely producing in that 35-45 point range, or at least that's what I'm thinking. Having better linemates night in and night out will help his underlying numbers bear more fruit.
Last edited by ComixZone; 08-17-2020 at 10:09 PM.
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You and I arguing about Sam Bennett yet again, it's always fun!
Your take on Bennett wasn't an uncommon one. I'd argue it was the uncomplicated one, but one that was justified because his day in day out regular season play just wasn't a sexy one.
However, look at what's happening in front of your eyes. He's got the opportunity I've long argued with you that he needed - and he's running with it. I'd say this is Bennett proving your take wrong - and it's freaking awesome for the team you cheer for. So you can continue to move the goal posts to justify an opinion you have, or you can be like "damn, I'm happy I was wrong on that one" and move on while cheering for a forward who is producing points at a better rate than almost everyone in the NHL in these playoffs as he also leads the NHL in post-season hits. Like holy hell - put those stat lines together, and don't even bother arguing that the stats don't matter, use the ol' eye test - it lines up. The Sam Bennett we're seeing right now is the player we DREAMED of drafting. He's showing the heart, grit, determination, and skill we need. Can he keep this up? Probably not, but does he deserve better linemates and an opportunity to play as a centre next year? Yeah, he does.
I was over here in camp Gillies and hammering the drum for him over Rittich for far, far too long. I was a freaking James Neal fan last year (...I STILL have my James Neal jersey ffs). Sometimes we're wrong.
The underlying numbers are starting to shine through. No one here is really arguing that Bennett is a superstar, as most of us seemed to have abandoned that take somewhere between Glen Gulutzan and Bill Peters - but just look at what he's doing AGAIN. He's "earning" his ice time/bump in linemates that you have said before he didn't deserve - well, he deserves it now, and he's making good on it. This is awesome for the team.
If someone is a Calgary Flames fan, I don't understand how they aren't loading up on the Bennett train. This could be freaking huge for the organization going forward. He's producing at an elite level at the most important time of the year, and so even if he puts up 30 points in the regular season - if he produces at a top level in the playoffs that's a pretty damn good thing - it's also really entertaining to watch.
Small sample size versus large same size. We've seen this movie before. Sam will be awesome and the Flames will be out in the first round again, so it over-inflates his stats because of the small sample size. The Sam fans will be all excited about this being his breakout performance and that he's a core player finally showing his value. But then comes next training camp and Sam will revert back to the same player we see every year. He'll be out played by younger more hungry players and the coaching staff will be left shaking their heads, wondering where playoff Sam went? The coaches will take the blame - again - for treating Sam unfairly, when it is his inconsistent performance that leads to him earning the lack of time he gets. Sam becomes a distraction again and doesn't contribute to the team's regular season success, which is what give playoff Sam a chance to shine. It is the ultimate catch-22.
Frankly, next training camp will be Bennett's last opportunity with the Flames IMO. If he doesn't bring the same intensity and the same performance he is right now, and reverts back to 20-25 point bad penalty-taking, no-finish Sam, the Flames will move on. They have to if they want to get better. Just like they have to move Gaudreau this summer. Its just an inevitability. Players only get so many chances before a team moves on. Bennett is showing what he is capable of, which sets the expectation. When he doesn't live up to that expectation, that's where things go bad.
The larger sample size tells me to enjoy the playoff Sam Bennett, because it is a short run production and will not be in arenas come next regular season. Sam has to prove that wrong. It would be awesome if he did, because we could use this Sam Bennett on most nights. I really wish he would show up, because it makes the Flames a better team. When that guy doesn't show up, he contributes to the team being worse, which is the reality that Treliving has to live with. The larger sample size is why I would explore options to move him while the price may be inflated.
Deployed as a fourth line winger, he produces as a fourth liner. (Hey, look at how Derek Ryan’s offense has dried up on the fourth line!)
Deployed at his natural position, with middle 6 caliber linemates, and not in the blender, he is simply proving everybody that expected him to be better in that situation correct.
I find it fascinating how staunchly people stick to their own narrative, even when the evidence flies in its face.
I will expect this. If the coaches find a reason to bury him at wing on the fourth line, Sam’s agent will more than likely do his job.
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I'm somewhat conflicted on Bennett. During the regular season he did not have a very good year which was disappointing as he did play well in the playoffs. So there is the fool me one shame on me, fool me twice shame on you going on in my head. He does not seem unhappy in Calgary, but the gut feeling is that a change of scenery might do him good. Maybe not quite John Leclair..but along those lines of being a high pick in a hockey market who hasn't been bad, but had not met lofty expectations.
I do think he has not had a clearly defined role since his rookie season. So maybe you do tell him that he's the number 3 center and that if what the team saw in the playoffs is the player he can be, there's more ice time to be earned.
Maybe he's just a Rob Niedermayer type...leaves you wanting more during the season, but if you get in the playoffs, he can really help a team.
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Yup. Contract year, close to free agency, and expansion draft. It'll be go time. The Flames will have to make a decision on Bennett then, if he even makes it to training camp and isn't dealt this off season.
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Deployed as a fourth line winger, he produces as a fourth liner. (Hey, look at how Derek Ryan’s offense has dried up on the fourth line!)
Except Ryan's game hasn't changed. Bennett's has. His intensity has gone up by a massive amount. This is not the same Sam Bennett we see during the regular season. This guy is 180 degrees from the brain dead idiot we see during the regular season. During the regular season we see flashes of intensity that made you sit up and notice. But those were buried in a hodge podge of stupid penalties, poor decisions, bad positioning, and bad play. In the playoffs we see flashes of regular season Sam here and there. It is the most bizarre thing I've seen from a player.
Quote:
Deployed at his natural position, with middle 6 caliber linemates, and not in the blender, he is simply proving everybody that expected him to be better in that situation correct.
I'm not seeing it. What I am seeing is a different level of intensity. It is the same poor skill set, just on speed. Its not like Sam has turned into a different player where he's making slick plays and showing a new intelligence to his game. This is the same guy just playing with reckless abandon. The whistles are a little deeper in pockets and the play a little more physical, so the running around hasn't led to the usual number of calls. He's still the same player, just playing at an intensity level needed.
I'm curious what level of credit Dube gets in this revitalization?
Quote:
I find it fascinating how staunchly people stick to their own narrative, even when the evidence flies in its face.
I will expect this. If the coaches find a reason to bury him at wing on the fourth line, Sam’s agent will more than likely do his job.
I find it equally fascinating how people can ignore entire seasons of work and focus on very small bodies of evidence to support their position. 82 games don't matter, just focus on the 4-7 games at the end of the year. That doesn't work for me.
Yup. Contract year, close to free agency, and expansion draft. It'll be go time. The Flames will have to make a decision on Bennett then, if he even makes it to training camp and isn't dealt this off season.
Except Ryan's game hasn't changed. Bennett's has. His intensity has gone up by a massive amount. This is not the same Sam Bennett we see during the regular season. This guy is 180 degrees from the brain dead idiot we see during the regular season. During the regular season we see flashes of intensity that made you sit up and notice. But those were buried in a hodge podge of stupid penalties, poor decisions, bad positioning, and bad play. In the playoffs we see flashes of regular season Sam here and there. It is the most bizarre thing I've seen from a player.
I'm not seeing it. What I am seeing is a different level of intensity. It is the same poor skill set, just on speed. Its not like Sam has turned into a different player where he's making slick plays and showing a new intelligence to his game. This is the same guy just playing with reckless abandon. The whistles are a little deeper in pockets and the play a little more physical, so the running around hasn't led to the usual number of calls. He's still the same player, just playing at an intensity level needed.
I'm curious what level of credit Dube gets in this revitalization?
I find it equally fascinating how people can ignore entire seasons of work and focus on very small bodies of evidence to support their position. 82 games don't matter, just focus on the 4-7 games at the end of the year. That doesn't work for me.
Yeah, Dube gets some credit in this "revitalization", that's actually what we're saying - circumstances matter in a huge way. Even calling it a revitalization is to miss the point. Bennett has strong underlying number in spite of his poor linemates. Give him good linemates and his strong underlying numbers begin to bear fruit - what's hard to understand about that? Or are you a believer that Alex Ovechkin would score 50+ goals a year while playing centre (not his natural position) with Tobias Rieder and Mark Jankowski on his wings? Sure, he'd produce more than Benny would - but he wouldn't hit anywhere near his potential because circumstances freaking matter.
Yeah, Ryan - a 33 year old veteran is stepping into his PK specialist role quite well. His maturity is to be commended. He's also failed to produce at all during 5v5 play from that 4th line, and a lot of that likely has to due with his linemates. Rinaldo and Jankowski are bad enough that they sink your offensive output. Ryan's awesome because he brings that PK specialist role and is killing it with Rieder in that role...but again, during 5v5 his linemates are murdering him. Exactly like they do to Bennett in the regular season.
We aren't the ones ignoring something. We all know Bennett needs to be better during the regular season - but there is ample evidence that suggests he would produce at a level that is more than acceptable during the regular season if his circumstances were just a touch better. You seem to have made the choice to completely ignore the positives that are right in front of your face because of your bias. To argue that Bennett isn't showing skill while he out-produces pretty much everyone in the league when it comes to points vs. TOI is just your bias shining through.
Last edited by ComixZone; 08-18-2020 at 08:07 AM.
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This club needs value on deals moving forward. This is not that.
When, on average, every other team has 4 guys outscoring him for less money....well that is a TON to make up with intangibles etc.
Doesn't mean if they can find some value elsewhere that Bennett becomes an issue at his current cost, but it better be decided before next June (or whenever next offseason occurs) which means he better at least perform up to his salary level in the regular season.
Ideally every player is on value contracts, for sure.
But this is a million bucks, that's it.
And from a player that ...
- always seems to find another gear in the playoffs
- amps up for rivalry games in the regular season
- can play all three forward positions
- is one of your only physical players
- sticks up for teammates
He's paying back that million dollars even if he doesn't find this game in the regular season.
Now would I want him making 4? Probably not.
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Both Bennett and Ryan are the types of players you want on your team for the playoffs. If forced to choose, Bennett is the one to keep, but the loss of Ryan would also really hurt.
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Don't need stats to know how the team is playing. You can see who is playing well and who is play like crap. The only stat that matters is wins and losses. You want something to talk about, talk about that and the quality of play. The advanced stat junkies can talk about how the numbers tell a story about the performance of this team in the post season, but much of it doesn't jive and it is easy to see which team has been better and which has been left wanting. We know where this team stands.
Well the advanced stats say the Flames are getting worked.
Are you saying otherwise?
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I'm a guy who said more than once that Sam has shown us who he is. I had made up my mind that he would continue to be a max 30 point wrecking ball on the ice taking infuriating minor penalties as he went. In other words, tradeable. Maybe that's what he is and this playoff Sam isn't the real Sam but let's see how it turns out. If Ward has patience and keeps him with Dube next year then maybe we see a new energy/scoring line emerge for Calgary that they certainly could use. What's the harm?
I’ll just never understand someone who thinks playoffs don’t matter or are too small a sample size, but then says “it all comes down to training camp!”
Yeah, preseason games. Woohoo. That’s when the games count I guess.
At the end of the day though, the argument seems to be that Sam Bennett needs to be a point per game player to belong on this team. He doesn’t.
He can be a 25 point player on a cheap contract for the next decade if that’s what he is, and a guy who finds another gear in the playoffs, and he’ll be of more value to us than in a trade.
People want to act desperate to trade a guy like that? Be my guest, do you. It seems to me like some people need to let “high first rounder Sam Bennett” go. It’s ok, it’s been what? Six years? Let it go. He’s not going to hit 100 points, and he doesn’t need to in order to have a place on this team. Every team has guys that aren’t flashy or spectacular. We could sign a new one or two of them every 2-3 years, or we could keep Sam Bennett. I’m going to go with Bennett, considering we drafted him and I just generally like him as it’s pretty easy to root for our guys. But sure, bring in the past their prime guys or spend draft picks on guys who just need a “fresh start” to fill out your bottom six. Sounds exciting.
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Well the advanced stats say the Flames are getting worked.
Are you saying otherwise?
I agree that the Flames are getting worked, but I also think that advanced stats are still not really very advanced. They're still pretty simple models that leave out a tonne of data.
Some day there will be much more advanced stats that use much more complete data with more sophisticated models and provide much greater insight, but for now I don't think the advanced stats can be consistently counted on to provide better insight than the pattern recognition abilities of a human brain trained on a tonne of game-watching & game-playing data.
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for now I don't think the advanced stats can be consistently counted on to provide better insight than the pattern recognition abilities of a human brain trained on a tonne of game-watching & game-playing data.
Stats as "simple" as NHLe and corsiREL are better at identifying useful players than the vast majority of scouts out there. Just look at signings of ours such as Troy Brouwer, or draft picks such as Hunter Smith. That's the "pattern recognition abilities of a human brain trained on a tonne of game-watching & game-playing data" totally flopping.
Of course I'm not saying not to have scouts or that stats of any sort should be overriding the obvious, but these simple stats often focus on what really matters, and those human brains often have such strong biases towards factors that don't really matter, that don't influence winning. Biases like size, hitting (I'm a Bennett fan, but how many times this postseason has he or Lucic went for a hit on the forecheck and the other team was off rushing to the other end? Too much), soft dumpins (see Burke's two minute montage of Corey Perry making pretty dump-ins that accomplished nothing in terms of shots towards the net, though Perry's been great, I'm just talking about the overfixation on some details over others), etc etc. We're all guilty of it. The simple stats kind of filter a lot of the noise out and focus on whether those details can predict results.
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Last edited by GranteedEV; 08-18-2020 at 09:43 AM.
I am fine keeping Bennett but people need to be prepared for him not being anywhere near this same player next season. He will have games and flashes where he steps up like this but it is an impossible style to play for 6 months and 82 games.
Hopefully his confidence and offensive touch can remain but no one can throw 7-8 hits a game like he is day in and day out. When he plays engaged like this and the refs tend to call less penalties he thrives and is exactly the player we thought we were getting when he was drafted. I am happy he has shifted back to the middle and it is working. At the end of the day this is currently an 8 game sample size. I think some are getting a little ahead of themselves thinking this is a monumental breakout. He has always been a playoff beast and it has never carried over to the regular season. While I certainly hope it does I have been fooled too many times in the past. I am also not a huge fan of the argument it is not his fault and all due to bad coaches and line mates.
One thing I have always thought about Bennett is he would find his game and succeed once he moved on from the Flames. Optimistically there is a chance he found his role on the Flames after all. I was convinced he would be traded this offseason but I don’t think so anymore.
What I think could really help Bennett stay engaged in the regular season is obviously keeping him with Lucic and Dube but simplifying his expectations. Ya 5-8 hits a game isn't really possible for 82 games but if they do with him what they did with Ferland and tell him basically we want 3 hits and 3 shots or maybe 3-5 shots + passes that lead to shots per game it could really keep help keep his focus for a majority of games.
He already produces chances at a good clip in the regular season so more points should come with Dube but if we take away his tendency to try and do too much when things aren't going his way it could really help his overall game imo.
3 hits, 3-5 shots or shot assists and work on taking less offensive zone penalties. Very simple goals game in, game out and should help the player learn that he doesn't need to do too much.
And give Dube and Lucic similar goals. all of a sudden now that line combined is getting 10 shots on goal and throwing 10 hits a game. success will come from that.
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I agree that the Flames are getting worked, but I also think that advanced stats are still not really very advanced. They're still pretty simple models that leave out a tonne of data.
Some day there will be much more advanced stats that use much more complete data with more sophisticated models and provide much greater insight, but for now I don't think the advanced stats can be consistently counted on to provide better insight than the pattern recognition abilities of a human brain trained on a tonne of game-watching & game-playing data.
Yeah I don't like the word advanced at all.
Someone is just counting instances of certain events. Things will certainly progress into something more advanced but that's all it is now.
To me it's an onion.
Shots on goal mean something, but you can go deeper.
Shot attempts mean something as well, but you can go deeper.
Game three the Stars had more shots and shot attempts, ... more scoring chances, but a 10-7 edge in high danger chances and the Flames won the game. They gave up zone time, but protected the paint well.
Game four was different ... Stars had the possession but they converted said possession into scoring chances ... something like 20-8
There aren't many instances where the event summaries don't match what you're seeing.
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I'm a guy who said more than once that Sam has shown us who he is. I had made up my mind that he would continue to be a max 30 point wrecking ball on the ice taking infuriating minor penalties as he went. In other words, tradeable. Maybe that's what he is and this playoff Sam isn't the real Sam but let's see how it turns out. If Ward has patience and keeps him with Dube next year then maybe we see a new energy/scoring line emerge for Calgary that they certainly could use. What's the harm?
And I think this year specifically there is good chance the Flames bring in someone else for the top six which imo should push Mangiapane down and subsequently Lucic as well.
and a Mangiapane - Bennett - Dube line would be a dream. Possession monsters and three guys who never give up on plays. perfect third line imo and I think they'd all have a good year. plus Lucic - Ryan 4th line would be pretty solid too.
