Saudi Troubles

[Jeff Lebowski]

@ Blankall
Who is Israel using drone against? Places with similar tech to Russians in Syria?
I never said it was impossible to attack from Iran. I stated that Iran was guarded against by similar (so it seemed) tech to Russians which repelled attacks.

[Jeff Lebowski]

@Blankall
Why do you doubt Yemen could do this attack. As the article states that seems like orientalism- those dumb brown folk couldn’t do it.

Well let’s see proof that it was Iran. Launched from Iran.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by Baron von Kriterium

It appears that the "Yemenis aren't capable of doing this" was once again proven wrong as the incapable Yemenis captured beaucoup Saudi thugs and equipment over the last 72 hours..

https://twitter.com/user/status/1178031688150061059

https://twitter.com/user/status/1178103728315998208

The operation took place in Saudi territory along the border on the Najaran axis.

- Yemeni operation dubbed VICTORY FROM GOD.
- Three Saudi Brigades eliminated. A couple of thousand captured, approx 400 KIA. The majority were Saudi-paid mercenaries; however one platoon of all Sauds was captured.
- large quantities of weapons and vehicles seized. Yes, those are Canadian-made LAVs in the video.

Sauds haven't confirmed any of this, but I'm sure they will blame Iran at some point.

Oh, the King's bodyguard is dead:

https://twitter.com/user/status/1178111763755212802

The old saying is Saudi Arabia will fight to the last Pakistani

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Jeff Lebowski

@Blankall
Why do you doubt Yemen could do this attack. As the article states that seems like orientalism- those dumb brown folk couldn’t do it.

Well let’s see proof that it was Iran. Launched from Iran.

Last time I checked people from Iran were brown too.

What separates Iran from Yemen is a highly advanced aeronautics and military industry that dates back decades. Designing a long range drone capable of high speed and altitude flight, a significant degree of stealth, and precision targeting is extremely difficult and would take decades of engineering and science. It's highly unlikely that a rebel group from an impoverished nation with no major experience, universities, or research groups would be able to design such a device.

It's actually you who is guilty of orientalism by not realizing how advanced Iran's aeronautics are and what separates a country like Iran from Yemen. You are painting everyone with a single brush.

The whole point of this discussion is that there is no proof the drone came from anywhere. However, basic common sense suggests one of three main possibilities:

1. Iran launched the device from Iran;
2. Iran provided the device to Yemen rebels; and
3. There was no attack and the Saudis are making everything up to justify sanctions against Iran/Yemen and increased oil prices.

Quite frankly, I'm open to any of these possibilities based on current evidence. It'd be nice to have a civil discussion about these possibilities and the rationales for each one. You're the only one here irrationally excluding totally plausible explanations.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Jeff Lebowski

@ Blankall

Sure. No one is saying Iran didn’t supply weapons even though it thought that Yemen made copies of Iranian tech. The point is that Iran can’t be “blamed” for the attack, if Yemen conducted it.

Unless the premise is supplying weapons to Yemen is bad or act of complicity but US, UK supplying weapons to Saudi is ok. The wanton destruction paid upon Yemeni civilians (kids in school buses) is being done by Saudi - with Western tech. Is the West complicit too?

No one here is denying that the West supplies weapons to the Saudis. I don't think they should either.

You, however, seem to be denying, or at least downplaying, Iran's role in all of this.

Wanting to discuss the truth is not a matter of choosing sides. In war, generally (please do not try to point out historical examples where one side was totally in the wrong), all sides are complicit to some degree.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Originally Posted by blankall

Last time I checked people from Iran were brown too.

What separates Iran from Yemen is a highly advanced aeronautics and military industry that dates back decades. Designing a long range drone capable of high speed and altitude flight, a significant degree of stealth, and precision targeting is extremely difficult and would take decades of engineering and science. It's highly unlikely that a rebel group from an impoverished nation with no major experience, universities, or research groups would be able to design such a device.

It's actually you who is guilty of orientalism by not realizing how advanced Iran's aeronautics are and what separates a country like Iran from Yemen. You are painting everyone with a single brush.

The whole point of this discussion is that there is no proof the drone came from anywhere. However, basic common sense suggests one of three main possibilities:

1. Iran launched the device from Iran;
2. Iran provided the device to Yemen rebels; and
3. There was no attack and the Saudis are making everything up to justify sanctions against Iran/Yemen and increased oil prices.

Quite frankly, I'm open to any of these possibilities based on current evidence. It'd be nice to have a civil discussion about these possibilities and the rationales for each one. You're the only one here irrationally excluding totally plausible explanations.

What are you talking about?!? Where have I written Iran didn’t have capabilities? I had stated Iran could’ve done this but the Yemenis were also capable - maybe based on copies of other’s tech- I don’t understand why you confuse what I’ve written. My point is it’s wrong to conclude it was Definitely Iran.

So the point is the Yemenis were not necessarily given the weapons but reverse engineered their own - was it Iran that provided the template? Maybe, probably likely but that does not mean Iran is responsible. Where is the proof ? So what if Iranian drones were copied? How are they responsible for the attack? If there is proof, let’s see it.

The war on Yemen is a humanitarian crisis. Starvation, cholera, people have a right to fight back. For self defence. I’m saying the Yemenis are in their rights to launch these attacks and it’s possible they did so as they claimed.

As you listed either Iran did it or they gave them the weapons used. Do you see the difference? Is Iran responsible if Yemen reverse engineered their weapons?

[Jeff Lebowski]

Originally Posted by blankall

No one here is denying that the West supplies weapons to the Saudis. I don't think they should either.

You, however, seem to be denying, or at least downplaying, Iran's role in all of this.

Wanting to discuss the truth is not a matter of choosing sides. In war, generally (please do not try to point out historical examples where one side was totally in the wrong), all sides are complicit to some degree.

DUBAI (Reuters) - At a weapons exhibition in July in Yemen’s Houthi-controlled capital Sanaa, military officials whipped silken sheets off what they said were newly-developed drones and missiles.

Whether or not the Iran-aligned group carried out Saturday’s crippling raid on a Saudi oil plant — as it asserts — its capabilities mean it can feasibly claim responsibility for the strike, a humiliating blow against its top adversary.

Much remains unclear about the attack: Some Western officials believe responsibility lies with Iranian-backed militias in Iraq, or Iran itself.

What is certain is that Houthi weapon capabilities have evolved rapidly in the past couple of years in accuracy and distance, analysts, U.N. data and Houthi media indicate.

In one unverified Houthi video, a covert launch vehicle rises robotically out of the desert floor and fires off missiles thousands of feet into a clear blue sky, before retracting into its hiding place.

ACCURACY

“They are getting better on accuracy,” a Saudi-based security source said. “The message they’re sending is: We are getting through and we are hitting the right locations.”

“As these technologies - long range drones or cruise missiles - spread, it really adds to the distance of warfare. It also adds to the deniability of the perpetrator,” said James Rogers, assistant professor in War Studies at University of Southern Denmark.

The Houthis’ growing military clout has checked Saudi ambitions in Yemen. Riyadh leads a coalition that intervened in 2015 to restore the government of President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, which the Houthis ousted from power in the capital Sanaa in late 2014.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-s...-idUSKBN1W22F4

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Jeff Lebowski

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-s...-idUSKBN1W22F4

The question isn't whether the Houtis have the weapons, but where they came from. Overall, I'd say there are some major leaps in logic going on in this thread.

One of my favorites:

Originally Posted by Baron von Kriterium

https://twitter.com/user/status/1178103728315998208

The operation took place in Saudi territory along the border on the Najaran axis.

- Yemeni operation dubbed VICTORY FROM GOD.
- Three Saudi Brigades eliminated. A couple of thousand captured, approx 400 KIA. The majority were Saudi-paid mercenaries; however one platoon of all Sauds was captured.
- large quantities of weapons and vehicles seized. Yes, those are Canadian-made LAVs in the video.

Sauds haven't confirmed any of this, but I'm sure they will blame Iran at some point.

The actual BBC article, that is in the tweet:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-49866677

Houthi rebels video fails to prove Saudi troop capture claim

The video shows an attack on armoured vehicles, but there is so far no verification of the Houthi claim of a major military success.

Colonel Yahiya Sarea alleged on Saturday that Saudi forces had suffered "huge losses in life and machinery", including "thousands" of its troops.

All those captured would be paraded on the Houthi-run Al Masirah TV network, he said.

But the video broadcast on Sunday instead shows what appear to be rebels firing at vehicles on a road.

This is followed by footage of several burnt-out vehicles, as well as assorted light weaponry laid out on the ground and a group of men not in military uniforms marching down a dirt road.

In a news conference on Sunday, Col Sarea did not give a date for when the video was taken.

He said the evidence of the attack could not be shown for security reasons.

In the end, the Saudis are exploiting this situation, as exactly we thought they would anyways:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-49874807

Saudi Arabia's crown prince has warned that oil prices could rise steeply if the world does not act to deter Iran.

Once again, I'm not sure why we need to take a side in the Iran/SA conflict. Both sides are in the wrong.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Originally Posted by blankall

The question isn't whether the Houtis have the weapons, but where they came from.

No the question is who did the attack on oil Saudi facilities? The Yemenis claimed responsibility in response to 4 years of Saudi bombardment and war. The Reuters article from my last post shows how Yemen has been increasing their capabilities recently.
Yemen had attacked Saudi facilities prior to the one in question - again in response to Saudi attacks and blockade that are killing massive amounts of civilians both directly and indirectly (starvation, disease).

So it could have been Yemen it could have been launched outside Yemen. Where is the proof?

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Jeff Lebowski

No the question is who did the attack on oil Saudi facilities? The Yemenis claimed responsibility in response to 4 years of Saudi bombardment and war. The Reuters article from my last post shows how Yemen has been increasing their capabilities recently.
Yemen had attacked Saudi facilities prior to the one in question - again in response to Saudi attacks and blockade that are killing massive amounts of civilians both directly and indirectly (starvation, disease).

So it could have been Yemen it could have been launched outside Yemen. Where is the proof?

The conflict is far more complex than you are letting on. The Houthis are predominantly members of a #####e sect, that accounts for about 10% of the general population. They initially were looking to take control over their own population centres, but have since attempted to gain total control of the country.

They are heavily backed by Iran, in every sense of the word.

The Saudi coalition has a legal obligation to defend other members of the Arab league, of which Yemen is a member. They obviously don't want an Iranian puppet state on their border, and have many of their own motivations for entering and exploiting the conflict. For example, the somewhat unrelated drive to increase oil prices.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by blankall

The conflict is far more complex than you are letting on. The Houthis are predominantly members of a #####e sect, that accounts for about 10% of the general population. They initially were looking to take control over their own population centres, but have since attempted to gain total control of the country.

They are heavily backed by Iran, in every sense of the word.

The Saudi coalition has a legal obligation to defend other members of the Arab league, of which Yemen is a member. They obviously don't want an Iranian puppet state on their border, and have many of their own motivations for entering and exploiting the conflict. For example, the somewhat unrelated drive to increase oil prices.

Shia in Yemen account for almost half the population and to some degree the Houthi are fighting for all of them.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

Shia in Yemen account for almost half the population and to some degree the Houthi are fighting for all of them.

Every source I've found says 90% of Yemen is Sunni.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by blankall

Every source I've found says 90% of Yemen is Sunni.

Yeman is around 25 million, of which 10 million are shia, I suspect you are looking at the Houthi percentage, they are around 10% of the total, frankly if the Shia were only 10% there wouldn't be a war at all, it is the fact that the Shia and Sunni are as balanced as they are, and for times in Yemani history the Shia have ruled the country that fuels the war.

[Snuffleupagus]

Originally Posted by blankall

Every source I've found says 90% of Yemen is Sunni.

Not sure if it's correct but:

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Snuffleupagus

Not sure if it's correct but:

This is fair enough. The stats seem all over the place actually. Anywhere from 10-45% #####e.

[Bagor]

Five men have been sentenced to death and another three face 24 years in prison for their roles in the gruesome murder of the dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul last year, the Saudi public prosecutor’s office has said.

All 11 people on trial were found guilty of the killing, which triggered the kingdom’s biggest diplomatic crisis since the 9/11 attacks as world leaders and business executives sought to distance themselves from Riyadh.

However, Saudi state television also reported the Saudi attorney general’s investigation showed that crown prince Mohammed bin Salman’s former top adviser, Saud al-Qahtani, had no proven involvement in the killing, after being investigated and released without charge.

Al-Qahtani has been sanctioned by the US for his alleged role in the operation.

The court also ruled that the Saudi consul-general in Istanbul at the time, Mohammed al-Otaibi, was not guilty. He was released from prison after the verdicts were announced.

The murder of Khashoggi sullied the reputation of the newly appointed crown prince, whom the CIA concluded directly ordered Khashoggi’s assassination, according to a report in the Washington Post.

Prince Mohammed has attempted to portray himself as a liberal reformer of the conservative country. The Saudi government denies the prince had knowledge of what it says was a rogue operation. He told US TV in September that he took “full responsibility as a leader in Saudi Arabia”.

All 11 defendants may appeal against the verdicts, the deputy public prosecutor, Shalaan bin Rajih Shalaal, said.

After holding nine sessions, the trial concluded that there was no previous intent by those found guilty to murder, according to state television.

No other details were immediately given about the ruling in the highly secretive trial, which began in January. The identities of the men are unknown and UN investigators have been repeatedly barred from hearings, although a handful of diplomats, including from Turkey, as well as members of Khashoggi’s family, were allowed to attend the sessions.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...amal-khashoggi

That clears that up then. A rogue element consisting of unknown individuals.

[Bunk]

Good to see MBS take full responsibility for blaming others. Leadership.

[blankall]

Apparently 5 more wrongs make a right? This is so absurd. The Saudi government murders a journalist. They make up for it by murdering 5 fall guys, who are likely just political dissidents/rivals.