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Old 04-16-2021, 12:33 PM   #3341
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So, really this is 600k doses as you only require one dose right?
yes, you could look at it that way!
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Old 04-16-2021, 12:37 PM   #3342
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When is USA going to finish vaccinating so we can have their leftovers?
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Old 04-16-2021, 12:44 PM   #3343
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When is USA going to finish vaccinating so we can have their leftovers?
Supply likely won't be an issue for Canada by the time the US starts exporting. In June we'll have enough doses getting delivered under existing timetables to vaccinate 2-2.5% of the population per day, which is probably going to max out our administration capacity.
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Old 04-16-2021, 12:51 PM   #3344
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Supply likely won't be an issue for Canada by the time the US starts exporting. In June we'll have enough doses getting delivered under existing timetables to vaccinate 2-2.5% of the population per day, which is probably going to max out our administration capacity.
Dosing at triple current rate would would be pretty incredible...
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Old 04-16-2021, 12:58 PM   #3345
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Dosing at triple current rate would would be pretty incredible...
It'll be interesting to see how high it can go. So far, no country (other than tiny island nations or microstates) has sustained over 1.5% of their population per day for any real length of time. Israel got up a little over 2% briefly and was over 1.5% for a couple of weeks, but other than them and Chile, no one has really sustained over 1%, though some countries (US, Hungary, and Uruguay) are at or above that level now.

I know BC has claimed they have capacity for 100K a day (just under 2% of the population per day), so we'll see if that actually bears out. But I think more than 2% nationwide is going to be fairly tough to pull off.
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Old 04-16-2021, 01:03 PM   #3346
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It'll be interesting to see how high it can go. So far, no country (other than tiny island nations or microstates) has sustained over 1.5% of their population per day for any real length of time. Israel got up a little over 2% briefly and was over 1.5% for a couple of weeks, but other than them and Chile, no one has really sustained over 1%, though some countries (US, Hungary, and Uruguay) are at or above that level now.

I know BC has claimed they have capacity for 100K a day (just under 2% of the population per day), so we'll see if that actually bears out. But I think more than 2% nationwide is going to be fairly tough to pull off.
Would be amazing to see. Go Canada!
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Old 04-16-2021, 01:12 PM   #3347
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https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmon...inic-1.5989513

This is getting a little ridiculous. If the 55+ cohort don’t want the AZ vaccine open it up to people who are ok with the risk of getting it.
Ugh this is getting ridiculous.

During a regular flu season I can get a shot at work, why did we not apply that same thinking to teachers/factories/healthcare workers?

I’m in my late 30s, in decent health and can work from home almost indefinitely. I’m willing to wait… but it get’s a lot harder to wait when it seems like our gov isn’t the least be inclined to put any effort or resources into how they prioritize this roll out.

Waiting while there’s 2 dozen private clinics pumping out thousands of vaccines a day, great! We’re moving forward.

Waiting while there’s empty mass vaccination sites as a limited age group waits out for their preferred choice… not so great, we’re not moving forward.
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Old 04-16-2021, 01:36 PM   #3348
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When is USA going to finish vaccinating so we can have their leftovers?
The issue is when production in the USA exceeds ability to administer and demand. That's already kind of happening. Hence, the extra supply allocated to Canada. The USA has also gotten pickier about which vaccines they plan to use.

My guess is that by a few weeks, we'll likely see demand begin to drop off for vaccines in the USA, but production will continue to increase. If Canada can get their hands on an extra 10% of the USA's supply, that's likely more than we can handle anyways.
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Old 04-16-2021, 01:40 PM   #3349
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What does Ford mean by wanting more health care professionals, and then subsequently telling the Feds they don’t want Red Cross help, they need more vaccines? What was the point in the original call for help from other provinces for health care providers?
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Old 04-16-2021, 01:43 PM   #3350
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The issue is when production in the USA exceeds ability to administer and demand. That's already kind of happening. Hence, the extra supply allocated to Canada. The USA has also gotten pickier about which vaccines they plan to use.

My guess is that by a few weeks, we'll likely see demand begin to drop off for vaccines in the USA, but production will continue to increase. If Canada can get their hands on an extra 10% of the USA's supply, that's likely more than we can handle anyways.
Other than the AZ loan from March, none of the extra doses Canada is getting are related to US supply chains. Canada is getting more Pfizer doses because they've been able to increase their production in the EU with more facilities coming online and ramping up. Pfizer's US supply is wholly manufactured in the US and American demand has no effect on how EU-produced doses are allocated (at least until the US starts to allow exports).
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Old 04-16-2021, 01:46 PM   #3351
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What does Ford mean by wanting more health care professionals, and then subsequently telling the Feds they don’t want Red Cross help, they need more vaccines? What was the point in the original call for help from other provinces for health care providers?
The only thing we know for sure at this point is that he will refer to us as “folks” at today’s presser.
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Old 04-16-2021, 01:50 PM   #3352
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He is obviously scrambling to prepare a response to this, as he pushed back his press conference twice already. I suspect he is going to announce stricter measures than he was originally going to announce.

It's supposed to start at 4pm (2MT), after originally being scheduled for 2:30.
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Old 04-16-2021, 01:54 PM   #3353
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Govt: Why is everyone so worried about the AZ vaccine, come on!!! It's safe for everyone, safe for every age, risk of blood clots less than getting hit by alien space ship.....

Me: OK, sign me up!

Govt: Sorry, you can't have it, only under 65 allowed.

Me: No, it's OK I'm 44!

Govt: Sorry, you can't have it, only 55+ allowed.

Me: Uhhh... can I have it if I sign an informed consent?

Govt: No, too risky. Not safe for your age. Sorry. But please tell everyone that AZ IS SAFE FOR EVERYONE, EVERY AGE, RISK OF BLOOD CLOTS LESS THAN..........
Seriously, the whole AZ vaccination debacle is fully the government and media's doing.

You can't pretend to state that AZ safe, when it's marketed only safe for a specific age group, especially one which is being constantly reported as less effective and even non-effective to variants, have reported blood clot problems (yes we know its rare but thats what is being foolishly reported), the US not approving it, Denmark permanently banning its use, and expect the specific 55-64 age group to line up in droves for what is seen as a lesser vaccine.

And it's not like you can get both the AZ and the Pfizer / Moderna vaccines.

I'm very pro vaccine, and I would still take the AZ today right now, but if I am offered the AZ today or the Pfizer 30 days from now and only had the one choice, I'd wait the 30 days.

That's the situation that the media and the government has created for itself.

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Old 04-16-2021, 01:58 PM   #3354
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What does Ford mean by wanting more health care professionals, and then subsequently telling the Feds they don’t want Red Cross help, they need more vaccines? What was the point in the original call for help from other provinces for health care providers?
It means that Ford plans to not only continue to blame Trudeau for not getting enough vaccines despite not being able to administer the ones Ontario has received, but also start blaming other provinces for not bailing Ontario out once the hospital system (that the Mike Harris PCs slashed to ribbons) collapses for lack of facilities and workers.
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Old 04-16-2021, 02:08 PM   #3355
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It means that Ford plans to not only continue to blame Trudeau for not getting enough vaccines despite not being able to administer the ones Ontario has received, but also start blaming other provinces for not bailing Ontario out once the hospital system (that the Mike Harris PCs slashed to ribbons) collapses for lack of facilities and workers.
my father in law in Manitoba was telling my wife that he heard from his Ontario friend that the problem is 'Ontario wasn't given enough vaccine' so I suspect that is a part of the message they will start getting out there? convincing the voting public they have been dealt a dud hand
(having not followed the Ontario situation or Fords latest public appearances much at all myself)


I think this starts becoming part of the dialogue nationally- does vaccine continue to be equally distributed?


I think the answer isn't obvious actually. for example take Ontario (same could apply to BC or Alberta) if they allocate more of their vaccine proportionately to Toronto (for example) then you have non Toronto parts of Ontario getting less vaccine than PEI per capita yet clearly still having more COVID than PEI


yes the counter- response is 'why should PEI be penalized or suffer for Ontarios mistakes?'



to which my answer would be PEI is not suffering- their reward for managing covid is not having covid, on the other hand other regions aren't in that boat


anyways one does wonder if the larger provinces (which also happen to be the covid provinces) start shifting this dialogue?
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Old 04-16-2021, 02:27 PM   #3356
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Seriously, the whole AZ vaccination debacle is fully the government and media's doing.

You can't pretend to state that AZ safe, when it's marketed only safe for a specific age group, especially one which is being constantly reported as less effective and even non-effective to variants, have reported blood clot problems (yes we know its rare but thats what is being foolishly reported), the US not approving it, Denmark permanently banning its use, and expect the specific 55-64 age group to line up in droves for what is seen as a lesser vaccine.

And it's not like you can get both the AZ and the Pfizer / Moderna vaccines.

I'm very pro vaccine, and I would still take the AZ today right now, but if I am offered the AZ today or the Pfizer 30 days from now and only had the one choice, I'd wait the 30 days.

That's the situation that the media and the government has created for itself.
What has the media done other than report the facts? Facts that are being wildly miss-interpreted yes but that's not on the media.
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Old 04-16-2021, 02:32 PM   #3357
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What has the media done other than report the facts? Facts that are being wildly miss-interpreted yes but that's not on the media.
I guess there is the media, and then there is the media


in terms of general news reporting on what is going on- the pause in AZ in various countries, the data- I agree need to report/cannot fault


but the broader media can take this in one of two directions


1. I have seen good opinion pieces (Andre Picard) and others trying to frame the issue


2. I have seen 'media' reports (yes often from sources I don't turn to for my main news of 'previously healthy woman has alien like skin reaction to astra zeneca vaccine' or whatever...these one off anectodes don't help
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Old 04-16-2021, 02:35 PM   #3358
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my father in law in Manitoba was telling my wife that he heard from his Ontario friend that the problem is 'Ontario wasn't given enough vaccine' so I suspect that is a part of the message they will start getting out there? convincing the voting public they have been dealt a dud hand
(having not followed the Ontario situation or Fords latest public appearances much at all myself)

I think this starts becoming part of the dialogue nationally- does vaccine continue to be equally distributed?

I think the answer isn't obvious actually. for example take Ontario (same could apply to BC or Alberta) if they allocate more of their vaccine proportionately to Toronto (for example) then you have non Toronto parts of Ontario getting less vaccine than PEI per capita yet clearly still having more COVID than PEI

yes the counter- response is 'why should PEI be penalized or suffer for Ontarios mistakes?'

to which my answer would be PEI is not suffering- their reward for managing covid is not having covid, on the other hand other regions aren't in that boat

anyways one does wonder if the larger provinces (which also happen to be the covid provinces) start shifting this dialogue?
The issue is all the big provinces are seeing high case levels (20+ cases per 100K per day), so there isn't really anywhere with significant supply to reallocate from. Even if Manitoba and the Maritimes gave up 100% of their weekly allotments, that's a drop in the bucket compared to the rest of the country.

Ultimately, there's a proven way to do this and that was demonstrated in Israel and the UK. You use strict non-pharmaceutical interventions to drop cases to a low level to give your vaccination program time to do its work. Unfortunately most provinces completely ignored that and tried to reopen with 3% vaccine coverage. And in completely predictable fashion, it's falling apart and as a result we're likely looking at far more significant restrictions in May/June than we'd otherwise have had if we kept cases reasonable while we vaccinated.
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Old 04-16-2021, 03:00 PM   #3359
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It means that Ford plans to not only continue to blame Trudeau for not getting enough vaccines despite not being able to administer the ones Ontario has received, but also start blaming other provinces for not bailing Ontario out once the hospital system (that the Mike Harris PCs slashed to ribbons) collapses for lack of facilities and workers.
I thought I read that NFLD and Nova Scotia both offered help and were turned down. This reeks of several provinces trying to blame Trudeau because they ignored experts. Nothing happening in Ontario, Alberta, or Saskatchewan is a surprise at all. I mean we're sitting here in Alberta waiting for our hospitals to catch up to Ontario, we're literally doing nothing to stop it. Hopefully we luck out and it doesn't happen.

Can anyone imagine the reaction in Alberta, if we had done what was needed to control covid, and the federal government turned around and took our vaccine allotment and gave it to Ontario?

It would be chaos here. It's tough to reward bad leadership in Ontario with vaccines meant for other places. Those people sacrificed to be in a good position too. Ideally we get the vaccines to the worst hit areas/people but that's definitely a tough line to walk.
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Old 04-16-2021, 03:01 PM   #3360
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The issue is all the big provinces are seeing high case levels (20+ cases per 100K per day), so there isn't really anywhere with significant supply to reallocate from. Even if Manitoba and the Maritimes gave up 100% of their weekly allotments, that's a drop in the bucket compared to the rest of the country.

Ultimately, there's a proven way to do this and that was demonstrated in Israel and the UK. You use strict non-pharmaceutical interventions to drop cases to a low level to give your vaccination program time to do its work. Unfortunately most provinces completely ignored that and tried to reopen with 3% vaccine coverage. And in completely predictable fashion, it's falling apart and as a result we're likely looking at far more significant restrictions in May/June than we'd otherwise have had if we kept cases reasonable while we vaccinated.
I agree with you 100% (both on the math and the failed policy). I just wonder if we are going to see the big boys (esp Ontario) throw their weight around here or at least try. but like you say even if they took all of Canada's vaccine it wouldn't really put their fire out right now, and they aren't the only problem
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