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Old 09-27-2021, 11:34 AM   #7061
fleury
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It's a real crap shoot with what version of the Jays shows up. I really think they have a good chance of sweeping the Yanks though. Yanks at home love to aim for right field home runs. With the Rogers Centre they just can't do it that easily, and on that alone I think the Jays have the advantage. With more fans in the stadium I think it'll be good. Baltimore is the team they should sweep, which I have concerns about because their bats seemed to come alive at the wrong time.
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Old 09-27-2021, 01:17 PM   #7062
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Jays need to win 4 out of the next 6, so long as 2 of those 4 are against the Yankees. I think that'll be enough. My completely made up numbers:

3 wins or less: 0% chance
4 wins: 50% chance
4 wins with 2+ vs Yankees: 75% chance
5 wins or more: 100% chance
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Old 09-27-2021, 01:45 PM   #7063
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mrkajz44 View Post
Jays need to win 4 out of the next 6, so long as 2 of those 4 are against the Yankees. I think that'll be enough. My completely made up numbers:

3 wins or less: 0% chance
4 wins: 50% chance
4 wins with 2+ vs Yankees: 75% chance
5 wins or more: 100% chance
Game 1: Jameson Taillon vs Hyun Jin Ryu
Game 2: Gerrit Cole vs Jose Berrios
Game 3: Corey Kluber vs Robbie Ray

As far as the Yankee series goes the Jays I could see splitting the first two and as long as Ray can win the last game they should be in a perfect spot for the Orioles series.

Last edited by Skaloper; 09-27-2021 at 01:55 PM.
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Old 09-27-2021, 02:33 PM   #7064
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When it’s all said and done the Jays could conceivably have a better team than three teams in the playoffs (White Sox, Cardinals and Braves) and not be in the playoffs. This team deserves better.
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Old 09-27-2021, 03:10 PM   #7065
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4 AL East teams could easily finish in the top 8 in MLB standings.
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Old 09-27-2021, 03:16 PM   #7066
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all those games that they blew, earlier in the season... would have been nice to win one or two of them
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Old 09-27-2021, 03:25 PM   #7067
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all those games that they blew, earlier in the season... would have been nice to win one or two of them
Yep no doubt.

I remember Chatwood walking away at least one game. I remember Bergen doing it once too. Not one walk either but multiple walks in the same inning.

I recall Chatwood blowing a game like that and then having a meltdown when Charlie pulled him, so the next time Charlie left him in until the loss was secured. A competent manager would never have done that.

A game against the Tigers where a throwing error from a darn near gold glove caliber SS playing 2B cost us a win. I mean what are the odds of that happening I wonder?

Sure going to be disappointing if this team wins 90 or 91 games with a +170 or more run differential and misses the playoffs.
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Old 09-27-2021, 04:07 PM   #7068
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Besides dropping ALL the games to the Twins - that was effectively the worst result this weekend for the Jays. Gonna need help from Rays and to win 5/6 it looks like (or win out)
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Old 09-27-2021, 04:11 PM   #7069
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Besides dropping ALL the games to the Twins - that was effectively the worst result this weekend for the Jays. Gonna need help from Rays and to win 5/6 it looks like (or win out)
Didn't they split the series with the Twins?
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Old 09-27-2021, 04:22 PM   #7070
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Didn't they split the series with the Twins?
Yes. I think ducay was saying that losing all the games would have been the only thing that could have made the least few days worse.

Mariners and As kept winning and the Red Sox got swept by the Yankees. All worst case
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Old 09-27-2021, 04:28 PM   #7071
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Jays still have control over their own destiny, credit to the Yankees, they have taken care of business on their end so far. This is basically playoff baseball now, which is something I did not envision at the beginning of the season. To compete for a playoff spot with the New York Yankees.
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Old 09-27-2021, 05:03 PM   #7072
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We’re all hoping and praying for playoffs, but even that is going to be a 1 game coinflip at best.

This series is basically playoffs for this team. Anything less than a series win (2 of 3) and we are toast.
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Old 09-27-2021, 07:01 PM   #7073
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There is a scenario where a 5 way tie for the WC spots can happen at 90 - 72
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Old 09-27-2021, 07:04 PM   #7074
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Yep no doubt.

I remember Chatwood walking away at least one game. I remember Bergen doing it once too. Not one walk either but multiple walks in the same inning.

I recall Chatwood blowing a game like that and then having a meltdown when Charlie pulled him, so the next time Charlie left him in until the loss was secured. A competent manager would never have done that.

A game against the Tigers where a throwing error from a darn near gold glove caliber SS playing 2B cost us a win. I mean what are the odds of that happening I wonder?

Sure going to be disappointing if this team wins 90 or 91 games with a +170 or more run differential and misses the playoffs.
As always, balanced by ones they shouldnt have. Like the Oriioles not long ago.

6 games to go and the Jays have their own destiny in their hands to make the playoffs. Everyone of us would've taken that in March, April, May, June, July and most of August.
Sure, it's to get to a one gamer against the Sox or Yanks and winner gets the Rays, but playoffs are playoffs and hopefully they don't play scared to get there.
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Old 09-27-2021, 07:10 PM   #7075
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Skaloper View Post
Game 1: Jameson Taillon vs Hyun Jin Ryu
Game 2: Gerrit Cole vs Jose Berrios
Game 3: Corey Kluber vs Robbie Ray

As far as the Yankee series goes the Jays I could see splitting the first two and as long as Ray can win the last game they should be in a perfect spot for the Orioles series.
The pitching matchup's strongly favour the Jays if Ryu is any semblance of his normal self. The scary thing is we will likely know in the first inning what Ryu we're going to get. So it's going to be ride or die pretty darn quickly tomorrow.

22 hours to go and I'm already damn nervous...
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Old 09-27-2021, 07:39 PM   #7076
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Going to need Ryu twice if he's starting tomorrow. That would mean he's in line for game 162 against the Orioles.
I was thinking of that too. But wondering if they short start Matz if Ryu blows up again tomorrow and they need that last game.
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Old 09-27-2021, 07:49 PM   #7077
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As always, balanced by ones they shouldnt have. Like the Oriioles not long ago.

6 games to go and the Jays have their own destiny in their hands to make the playoffs. Everyone of us would've taken that in March, April, May, June, July and most of August.
Sure, it's to get to a one gamer against the Sox or Yanks and winner gets the Rays, but playoffs are playoffs and hopefully they don't play scared to get there.
It's not balanced at all.

You have to go back to 2011 before you find a team that missed the playoffs with a run differential of +100 or more. That was the Red Sox with +138 and that was before the 2nd wild card was introduced, which they would have gotten as they were the first team eliminated.

The Jays currently have a +175 run differential and an expected W/L of 95-61. It's a disservice to this team to say "things have all balanced out" when it comes to the stretch of tough losses they had at the hands of their bullpen and manager. They most certainly have not balanced out.

BTW the only other team to miss the playoffs with a +100 or better run differential in the last 15 years was the 2008 Jays with +108. Two teams in 15 years, and neither one had even close to as high a run differential as this years Jays do.

Just sayin'...
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Old 09-27-2021, 07:51 PM   #7078
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I was thinking of that too. But wondering if they short start Matz if Ryu blows up again tomorrow and they need that last game.
Ryu has been solid in all 4 of his starts against the Yankees this year, hopefully that coupled with some extra rest will have him dialed in and confident. If not though, I suspect he will have a very short leash.....but with Montoyo who knows....
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Old 09-27-2021, 08:00 PM   #7079
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There is a scenario where a 5 way tie for the WC spots can happen at 90 - 72
Oakland takes 2 out of 3 from Seattle, and sweeps the Houston

Seattle wins one against Oakland, and sweeps the Angels

Jays go 3-3, winning at least 2 from the Yankees

Yankees win 1, either from the Jays or the Rays

Boston goes goes 2-4

That would be beyond epic
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Old 09-27-2021, 10:00 PM   #7080
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Haha, that would be crazy. Does anyone know how they would settle a 5 way tie?

I know a 2 way tie is a tie-breaker game but how the hell would they play a 5-way?
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